Baron Creek

That CPI and C.O.L.A expectations!!

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  one week ago  •  6 comments

That CPI and C.O.L.A expectations!!
"If I knew what I was doing, would I continue doing... what I am doing? - multiple variations.

Inflation

The CPI for August came out last Friday, and for those interested, here is the link. I have previously stated that the current CPI is misleading as consumer spending habits have been altered due to some virus. You can't say that food spending away from home was 6.279% of spending last year and remains the same weighting currently. So the official CPI-U was up 0.4% last month and 1.3% y/y. My own basket, with weightings adjusted monthly stands at 0.2% rise on the month, and a 2.6% rate y/y.

As for the C.O.L.A., we are still one month's data away from the official, with the CPI-W rising 1.4% y/y and 0.4% on the month. If September comes in flat, then 1.2%, but if September mirrors August... 1.4% C.O.L.A. (it's 3rd qtr avg. y/y). Most of the base Medicare B projections seem to lean towards a $3.90 monthly premium boost.

I did attach a snapshot of beef prices through July, via Farm Bureau . Don't expect end user prices to slide back to normal, until wholesalers and groceries recover from losses, imo.

Groceries

Still seeing some spot shortages of items, although I don't go inside stores. It may be on the shelf, but not available for curbside.

Everything we consume comes from the earth, whether ocean, above ground or below ground and the air around us. The timing for various items can range from several months to a short period. You cannot produce a product unless 100% of the components are available. 99% stops the production.

I am at the maintenance stage of my hoarding, with a reduction not likely until about 6 months from now. I will take Dr. Fauci at his word. No friends and family gatherings until mid to late 2021.

Elections

My very unoffical electoral vote prediction has the D-309; R-166; TU-63. Looking back to this time in 2016, it was D-235; R-230; TU-73.  The Clinton campaign then accelerated and the Trump campaign started sliding. That rapidly reversed in mid to to late October, 2016.

I am only tossing out numbers. I have no illusion that the outcome will be nirvana or the end of the world . The perception might change, but the underlying problems remain.

Vaccine

My wife and I have debated the notion of taking any covid-19 vaccine. We have decided to wait and remain boarded up at home. Vaccines should boost the immune system. That would be great on folks with strong immune systems, but would it be enough of a boost to us old folks with weak immune systems? Can those strong immune systems with vaccinations completely stop contraction of the virus or possible transmission? I know what the theories say, but this Covid-19 still has a lot of unknowns. 

As for the flu shot, we will get them, but will not make a special trip to the doctor's office. Not sure why, considering we don't plan on going out and about... but maybe some miraculous Covid vaccine might be developed in the interim.

Yep, staying the course.

Weird notions

Trump lies all the time, so if he had told the nation what he told Woodward... would he have been accused of lying or would it have been a lie?

More and more companies are developing drone deliveries. How long before flying a kite is considered illegal?

Apparently mustard beer is becoming something of hit in Chicago. If you're drinking mustard beer, what do you put on the hotdog?

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Baron Creek
1  author  Baron Creek    one week ago

Currently binge watching new tricks on prime. Everytime I think I have hit rock bottom, something of interest comes along. 

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
2  Bob Nelson    one week ago

How much of the CPI rise is hoarding? 

Will prices relax as hoarding relaxes? 

 
 
 
Release The Kraken
2.1  Release The Kraken  replied to  Bob Nelson @2    one week ago

I'm buying up all the potassium iodine. Now the price seems to have spiked a bit. Wonder if i am the only one?

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Bob Nelson @2    one week ago
How much of the CPI rise is hoarding?

Can't speak to the official BLS CPI, but mine went up about an estimated 0.05% annually due to hoarding. My freezer went bad when this thing started, so replenishing it can't really be called hoarding, but terribly bad timing. Meat, frozen veggies, etc. Most of my hoarding falls into paper products and pantry items. Most of the latter was no longer bought on sale and of course... refrigerated items can't be hoarded, at least not in my household.

Will prices relax as hoarding relaxes?

My spidey sense yes, but not until the entire supply chain returns to some semblance of normal. If you're looking for paper towels and the shelf pickings are slim, you're more likely to overstock on some of the other items. When you hear aluminum can shortage, what would the average consumer do?

My best guess is sometime in the spring. 

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
2.2.1  Bob Nelson  replied to  Baron Creek @2.2    one week ago

Sounds reasonable... 

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
2.2.2  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Baron Creek @2.2    one week ago

I would have to agree, too!