Baron Creek

Transitory (Part 3)

By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  2 months ago  •  5 comments

Transitory (Part 3)
I think transitory is going to prove longer than what we expected, and even what the Fed expected - Leuthold Weeden

It is that time again... reviewing how much purchasing power the current income stream has lost and realizing the next raise is still months away. 

CPI release ...

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.9 percent in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

So basically, it wasn't as bad as last month... but still kinda bad. The forecast for August is 0.4% with y/y of 5.5%. It ain't over, imo.


My own personal rate wasn't as bad, although 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y does not make me warm and fuzzy.

  • CPI-U: 5.3% y/y
  • R-CPI-E : 4.8% y/y (This is the "elderly" calculation.)
  • CPI-W: 6.0% y/y(July's 267.789 is 1/3 of C.O.L.A formula)
  • C-CPI-U: 5.3% y/y

Food overall was up 3.4% y/y compared to the headline 5.4%, BUT... the m/m was up 0.7% compared to the headline 0.5%. My minimal research indicates that food prices will continue their upward onslaught. When the producers are blaming lack of workers, transportation costs, supply chain disruptions, weather and a myriad other things, they are telegraphing the pass... as in passing the costs on to us. 

As for the working stiffs they are still ahead of February 2020... although the trend is downward. We won't really know how low it will go until all the low paying jobs are filled. Sorry, that is just a sad fact. 




The print is small, but it clearly indicates the rate of vaccinations is on the uptick. What strikes me as odd... is the low rate of 2nd doses. Whether 2 or 3 weeks, the trend should have started an upward tick. I do wonder if the lag time for reporting is widening. Many states have reduced the number of reporting days, etc. 

For those interested, 15.8% of the global population is now estimated to be fully vaccinated, although that includes all brands of vaccines. 

Article is LOCKED by author/seeder


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Baron Creek
Junior Participates
1  author  Baron Creek    2 months ago

One of the school districts in my state opened up last week and have now shut down due to small number of outbreaks, and the need to quarantine entire classes. The governor signed executive orders to make masks mandatory and most of the schools are rushing to comply.

Professor Principal
1.1  Ender  replied to  Baron Creek @1    2 months ago

Here they are still letting the schools decide. Some have masked up and some haven't.

Baron Creek
Junior Participates
1.1.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Ender @1.1    2 months ago

There may be a knock on effect as a result of the school closing. How many parents couldn't find sitters and had to stay home, the workplace impact, downstream impact, etc. 

Last year, it was generally about the old(er) people getting sick and dying. This year the variant is about kids getting sick, which brings a different type of reaction from the public, imo, which will result in implications for supply chains, etc.

The struggle continues.

Sophomore Silent
1.1.2  JaneDoe  replied to  Baron Creek @1.1.1    2 months ago
This year the variant is about kids getting sick, which brings a different type of reaction from the public, imo

It’s pretty scary if you have little ones. My husband and I made the decision that I would stay home and take care of our 3 month old granddaughter so she wouldn’t have to go to daycare. Both of her parents are teachers and started back with students this Tuesday which still means they can bring it home even though they both contracted it at school last year and are vaccinated. I worry about her every day!!

Professor Principal
2  Ender    2 months ago

Food prices continue to rise while it looks like low wage jobs continue to decline in wage.

I saw a sign for work at a Starbucks. It was ten something an hour for regular shift workers, then twelve something an hour for shift managers.

I thought, who in the world would want to be a Starbucks 'manager' for only twelve bucks an hour. No thanks.