Baron Creek

Calendar Adjustment Day

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  2 weeks ago  •  1 comments

Calendar Adjustment Day
Sometimes the title has nothing to do with the content, unless you look really close - Baron Creek

Port Congestion

I keep reading about ports being congested and the solution being put forth is more and bigger ships to carry more containers. Excuse me, but the problem is also inland… as rail and truck hubs are also congested. UP and BNSF in July halted east bound from the west coast for 1 week, to relieve the inland congestion or attempt. Now they have taken to metering traffic from ports to inland hubs. By my calculation that would seem to indicate a bigger pileup of ships in the harbor.

Somehow the vision comes to mind of everyone in NYC deciding to drive into Manhattan. Which, I would image, would gridlock Manhattan. Somehow building more cars and driving them into Manhattan would not be the solution to the gridlock. But what do I know?

I would suspect the great “Just in Time” inventory mantra that led to efficient global, coastal, and inland transportation and manufacturing has passed… as everyone is trying to expand inventories to offset the ever-increasing lead times. 

Global Warming

It is always somewhere in the news but is once again near the forefront. I believe there is global warming and believe we humans are largely the cause.

We are having these extreme weather events and they are being blamed on climate change. I buy into that concept, however… if we were to immediately halt all emissions from this point going forward, the temps would continue to rise for another 25 years. We are currently at 1.2C above year 1900 temps. In 25 years, it would be near 1.5C. It would be many decades further before the temps would fall back to current temp. If we buy into the concept of all these weather events (climate change) being directly attributable to global warming, then we must acknowledge that serious infrastructure improvements must take place.

Where I diverge with many, might be the definition of infrastructure improvements. If the sea levels are going to rise, then accept that migration away from low level areas must take place. If we accept torrential rains as the inevitable outcome, then we must realize that simply building flood walls and levees only causes a funneling effect of inland floods.  Saying infrastructure improvements sound nice and would create jobs, etc. But if mitigation of the effects of climate change is the basis of any proposal, would the actual result match that basis?

Like everything else, we humans wait until the very last moment to react to something that might upset our way of life. In varying degrees, we resist leaving a hurricane’s path until the last moment or until it is too late; we resist keeping supplies on hand to weather some type of storm until the last moment or when it is too late; we resist evacuating war zones until the last moment or until it is too late; we resist getting vaccinated until the last moment, or until it is to late. (Note: some people don’t have the means that others do regarding the aforementioned. I am referring to the “others”.)

Covid-19

Vaccine efficacy is back in the news and not in a good way. Booster shots or not. Once again, it seems the scientists are battling politicians. It would be funny, if not so sad.

Normally I would put the old vaccination chart up, but I’ll just stick with a summary. Since mid-August, the 1st dose has been trending down. The 2nd dose or fully vaccinated rate has been trending up. The latter will likely start to ebb in a about 2 more weeks.

I had mentioned previously of my suspicions the data was not quite right or some people I know are lying about being fully vaccinated. My own data set of people I know, indicates that about 2/3 of covid deaths are among the vaccinated… unless some are were lying. Not unlike someone that claimed they were born between 9-3 and 9-13 of 1752 gregorian.

While we are focusing on the delta variant, WHO is now alert to the MU variant. If I am reading the Greek alphabet correctly, we are about two variants from another round of politically induced hysteria. Yeah, my sense of humor is strange.

Inflation

Headline CPI projections for August are in the 5.4% yoy range and September at 5.5% yoy. Whereas July was 0.5% above June, August is now projected at 0.4% above July. September is now projected at 0.3% above August.

I feel safe (not happy) in predicting the price of stuff I buy… will NOT be going down. Drat.

(updated 10:49PM to correct won to own.)

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Baron Creek
Junior Participates
1  author  Baron Creek    2 weeks ago

Hmmm... Next week didn't exist 369 years ago!