What's ‘Brexit’? The issues and Its Wider Meaning to Our Economy
By Perrie Halpern
While most Americans are fixated on issues here in the United States, there is an issue going on in the UK, that could potentially have a huge impact on the US economy. That is the Brexit vote that will happen in 2 days time. Most Americans have no idea of what Brexit is, never mind the it's implications.
Brexit, as it has been nicknamed, stands for Britain's Exit from the European Union. There are two factions fighting it out in this huge referendum. In many ways, it mirrors our own national debate about national identity. So heated has this become, that it resulted in a member of Parliament, Jo Cox, who supported staying in the European Union, death by gun shot and stabbing, with the assailant shouting, “My name is death to traitors! Freedom for Britain!”
To break this down simply, Pro-Brexit advocates have framed leaving the European Union as necessary to protect, or perhaps restore, the country’s identity: its culture, independence and place in the world. This argument is often expressed by opposition to immigration. “Remain” supporters typically argue that staying in the union is better for the British economy and that concerns about migration and other issues are not important enough to outweigh the economic consequences of leaving.
The debate has also cut along the country’s famously deep class divides: Voters with less money and education are more likely to support leaving the union, which comes from a sense of abandonment among poor and working-class Britons. The Brexit debate has become a rally cry for anti-establishment and anti-elite feelings directed at the leaders of mainstream British political parties and the EU.
Ironically, neither side is defending the European Union as an important institution, with most of Britain viewing Europe as the "other", as there isa sense that European institutions have fallen short of their promises and have created problems, such as absorbing migrants or bailing out troubled economies, that many Europeans are tired of dealing with.
What's in play? For the Pro Brixits, it's the slogan "Take Control" There is a cultural nostalgia for Britain’s importance as a world player. Britain would like to be able to do things without having to consult Brussels.Then there is immigration. For pro Brexits, there is a feeling of losing their cultural and our national identity. It should be noted that most of Britain's immigration is Slavic and not from the Middle East, as in Europe, which is another reason for this debate.
The anti Brexit, are not fond of the EU, but rather are concerned with two other factors.The campaign warns that leaving would be disastrous for the British economy. Europe is Britain’s most important export market and its greatest source of foreign investment, and union membership has been critical in establishing London as a global financial center. A British exit would ruin that status and the high-paying jobs that come with it. Also a departure from the EU, would result in Scotland leaving the UK as they are against Brexit. This too, will be a burden to the British economy.
Bottom line, what does Brexit mean to the United States? Last week, the Federal Reserve in Washington cited the possibility of a Brexit as a reason to not raise interest rates. Great if you are buying real estate. Bad if you are trying to save. Britain's departure from the European Union could also threaten more than a trillion dollars in investment and trade with the United States. The United States is the largest single investor in Britain, and many firms consider it the gateway to free trade the E.U. A Brexit would jeopardize their access to the EU, potentially reducing revenue and forcing some firms to consider relocating their European operations. This puts corporate America onto the front lines of the campaign to keep the union together, with several of Wall Street's biggest names donating substantial sums to the effort. Financial markets are already feeling the effects. Britain's currency has fluctuated wildly, while London's major stock index plunged nearly 6 percent in less than two weeks and flirted with its lowest level in four months. Here in the United States, yields on comparable Treasury notes dropped to near-record lows not seen since 2012. If Britain leaves the EU, Britain would also need to procure trade agreements with countries around the world, including the United States, a process that could take years, which will leave businesses in limbo, as negotiations drag on.
The heavy-equipment giant Caterpillar exemplifies the dilemma facing American businesses in Britain. Over 55 years ago, it opened its first facility in Britain. Now Caterpillar has 9,000 employees and 16 plants there. Much of that production is exported throughout Europe and other parts of the world, eased by the E.U.'s open market and standing trade agreements. A Brexit would undermine an economic alliance that the company has called "fundamental" to its business: Roughly a quarter of Caterpillar's sales and revenue comes from its European business and the more limited operations in Africa and the Middle East. Other U.S. businesses have thrown their weight behind the effort to stay in the union. Ford's U.K. division sent a letter to its 14,000 employees emphasizing the importance of maintaining stability and preventing disruptions in trade. Wall Street's biggest banks, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley, reportedly have donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Britain Stronger in Europe, the leading campaign to remain. A survey by BritishAmerican Business found that 70 percent of its members thought a Brexit would damage their operations or future investments. The devaluation of the Pound has already had a huge effect on these businesses.
We are just bystanders to an event that we have no control over, but will possibly feel the fallout from for years to come.
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So I realize that Americans are isolationist at heart, but the reality is that we are a player economically, in the world and one of our biggest investments resides in Britain. Anything that affects their economy will affect ours. And although I understand the reasons for people of the UK wanting Brexit, we should understand the fallout here, just as our policies affect their lives.
Good article Perrie!
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The assassination of Jo Cox has apparently motivated the "remain" vote. From today-
"The campaign for Britain to stay in the European Union and avoid a so-called Brexit has taken a huge lead in a poll of people who say they will definitely vote.
Remain has a 7-point lead over the rival Leave camp ahead of Thursday's EU membership referendum, according to a poll for The Telegraph .
Remain leads Leave by 53% to 46%, with 2% saying they don't know. The poll was carried out by ORB International and had a survey size of 800 people.
Perhaps more important, the poll showed that the proportion of Remain supporters saying they will definitely vote jumped to 69% from 54% two weeks ago, while that figure for the Leave camp fell to 64% from 69%.
That erodes one of Leave's main hopes - that its supporters are more motivated to vote than those of Remain."
Interesting John. I had not seen that Poll. Still, I would not celebrate yet. Polls are not reliable for an outcome, but just an indicator. Sad it took the death of a member of Parliament, to motivate people.
A poll from two days before the vote should be pretty accurate, assuming it is a well designed poll.
imo Europe needs to remain united, if they all go their own way they will never get anything done. If Britain was on the continent I don't think this would even have come up. The Channel creates psychological separation.
Polls are not reliable for an outcome, but just an indicator.
Indeed.
reminds me of a book I read years ago , The United States of Europe..... before the creation of the EU.
I read that book, Mark. It was very good.
I'm not sure where the Brexit issue ends and the bond trading changes begin ...
I need some more info about your question, before I can answer that, Petey.
Here is a line from the article :
Last week, the Federal Reserve in Washington cited the possibility of a Brexit as a reason to not raise interest rates.
The US Federal Reserve announced it would not raise interest rates on Wednesday afternoon, blaming uncertainty over the UK’s potential exit from the EU and slowing economic growth for the decision.
The decision not to raise rates was applauded by Washington DC thinktank the Economic Policy Institute. “Today’s decision by the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged was the right one,” wrote policy director Josh Bivens. “There is no sign in the economic data that a durable acceleration in inflationary pressures is brewing and needs to be stopped by the Fed beginning to slow the economy.” Bivens called “the still-damaged labor market” a drag on the US economy .
Read more here:
BTW the referendum is tomorrow.
If I had a vote, I'd be a part of the pro exit side. I think my UK ancestors would have preferred a stronger relationship with America and the commonwealth than with the rest of Europe.
What do your ancestors have to do with it?
Do you live to please your ancestors?
I have no vote. If I did live in the UK I would vote to exit the EU.
For me, this is kind of personal. Half of my family lives in London and I spent a bulk of my childhood there.
I understand the issues they are facing. It's not such a cut and dry decision. As a Brit, I can understand why they would want to leave, but as an American, I understand the disaster it would be to our economy.
The EU has always complained about the Brits that they seem closer to the US than to Europe, and in a way, they are right. They do keep closer ties to their old colonies, and have more of in common with us. They are also fiercely independent, which is one of the reasons they didn't give up the pound. I am not sure if they are willing to lose Scotland over this though.
Another reason to leave is the terrible decision making the EU is prone to.....like forcing Turkey to change it's constitution as part of their membership application, only to be disapproved (the result of that is a guy named Erdogan pulling religion into politics) and being part and parcel of the Greek financial disaster.
For us here in the US, this issue seems a bit easy to decide. So I called my family in London to get their feelings on it.
My uncle and aunt, who are both Tories (conservatives), are voting against Brexit. Since they are in their late 60's and early 70's, they feel they can't wait the 10 years it will take for the UK to rebound. Also the immigration issue is a non starter for them, since the UK does not have open borders. So it hinges on the stability of the EU's economy.
Oddly enough, my cousins are also voting against it, since they do business in the EU.
It will be an interesting vote, given that it goes beyond what happens in the rest of Europe and isn't hinging national identity.
Either way, this is going to be interesting. The mere fact that they are voting on this is rocking and already shaky boat.
read an article just this morning about how this effects Minnesota...
Brexit's impact on Minnesota would be indirect, for most
Voting is on-going, there won't be any exit polls, they are saying and they will be reporting quantity of voter turnout also.
Well it looks like the Brits have voted to be out.
Last I saw exit was up 50.9% to 49.1%. It's been see saw though.
Now it looks pretty definite that its a "leave".
I would expect the stock market to open much lower, which for me is an opportunity to buy. (Of course the big question is-- will it keep going lower, or will it recover-- or be flat? Often traders over-react to this sort of thing at first, so the market might really tank on the opwn and the first hour-- then move up later in the da....or in the next week....
Celebration!
I'm going to my online brokerage to buy stocks and funds. By the time the Dow market opens it will be set to open about 500 lower than it closed maybe more. A perfect buying opportunity. Minus 650 Dow future now.
Dean I apologize up front but Boris Johnson is an asshole.
Totally! I hope for their sake he's not the next PM.
Celebration!
I'm going to my online brokerage to buy stocks and funds.
Yes-- but cautiously. it is an excellent opportunity to buy quality stocks at a discount. However, the big question is-- is the decline over-- or will it continue for a while? (If you bought a lot today when prices were down & the decline continues, you might feel pretty bad if the market continues down...).
So, IMO its important to proceed cautiously. And in a volatile hi-risk market to buy only stock of solid companies. Only American companies, and not American companies that do a lot of business abroad. One example--- Verizon (but its still up a lot).
Another-- domestic REITS. Many are only invested in the U.S., and they tend to pay good dividends. Its important to choose carefully-- well managed companies, and in good sectors. I am overweight REITs, I own three:
CCI: They own, operate & lease wireless infrastructure-- mostly U.S. only, a little bit in Australia. A play n increasing growth of wireless.But its moved up too much I wouldn't buy more here. Dividend now only about 3.72%.
VTR: Healthcare facilities: hospitals, senior housing, medical facilities. A play on "the aging of America". Has also moved up a lot so dividend is now only about 4.23%. I would be cautious about buying more at these prices, in fact I've sold off about 1/5th of holdings-- twice recently-- to take profits, raise cash, lower my risk profile.
GLPI: The most speculative of the 3--- risky! So it pays highest dividend, about 6.51%. Medium-Small size gambling casinos throughout the U.S. Seems to be well managed.
Note: They've all moved up recently-- I am not recommending purchase of any right now!
Only American companies, and not American companies that do a lot of business abroad. One example--- Verizon (but its still up a lot).
Another-- domestic REITS. Many are only invested in the U.S., and they tend to pay good dividends. Its important to choose carefully-- well managed companies, and in good sectors. I am overweight REITs, I own three:
CCI: They own, operate & lease wireless infrastructure-- mostly U.S. only, a little bit in Australia. A play n increasing growth of wireless.But its moved up too much I wouldn't buy more here. Dividend now only about 3.72%.
VTR: Healthcare facilities: hospitals, senior housing, medical facilities. A play on "the aging of America". Has also moved up a lot so dividend is now only about 4.23%. I would be cautious about buying more at these prices, in fact I've sold off about 1/5th of holdings-- twice recently-- to take profits, raise cash, lower my risk profile.
GLPI: The most speculative of the 3--- risky! So it pays highest dividend, about 6.51%. Medium-Small size gambling casinos throughout the U.S. Seems to be well managed.
Note: They've all moved up recently-- I am not recommending purchase of any right now!
These REITS are examples of one type of stock that should do well in the current environment. Another example would be solid relatively non-speculative American companies that pay a fairly decent dividend and have little or no exposure overseas.-- many utilities, some telcos (ex VZ, dividend now about 4.23%).
P.S: The S&P closed down 3.59%-- down close to 4%. That's a big drop for one day. So how did the 4 stocks mentioned here close on a big down day? Verizon, down less than a half of a %! (VZ -0.44%). GLPI -0.38%. CCI actually closed a tad higher, +0.37%, VTR +1.26%.
As mentioned, I am not recommending purchasing any of these . . .
I decided to wait over the weekend. If others continue to panic I'll get a better discount on their fire sales later. If it moves back up again, I can still capture most of the Friday sell off still on Monday.
Japan is down as is the pound already.
Perrie, your stock broker called me and said he wasn't taking any calls today to buy or sell stock.
I remember when Facebook went public as I'm sure many remember. The smart people remember buying as much stock as they could afford in Facebook. It opened May 21, 2012 at $36.53 and closed at $34.91. The lowest it closed at was $18.08 on September 3, 2012. Now it is $115.08. These of course are approximate. All this in 4 short years.
Of course this is an entirely different situation. I expect most everything will go down at first which it has, but an insignificant rebound shortly thereafter. If they hold it in the road stock purchases will be very profitable for many I believe. If I could only see into the future.
I can't blame them for wanting to release themselves from the income redistribution of the collective. Sometimes you have to make the move or you just get deeper into it until it pulls you down to its level.
Can't wait to see where I stand in the morning. Yea.
I see where they expect to see a dangerously strong Germany. Now I really do not know what they mean. Does anyone else?
Japan is down as is the pound already.
Yup. And it might well get much worse for those currencies in the future.
(And of course one other result of all this is that the Dollar is way up!!!
)
BREXIT is a manifestation of xenophobia … a wolf in sheep's clothing that will have a powerful adverse effect on a so-called "global economy."
If radical Islam wanted to fuck over the economics of the West as one of its terroristic objectives …
… It may be mission accomplished.
The UK voters who chose "LEAVE", IMO did so without actual knowledge of the potential, resultant fall out. In TRUMP-SUPPORTER fashion, fear and emotions and the failure to ask prior to voting, "AND THEN WHAT?" … may reiterate the caveat, "Be Careful What You Wish For".
The people of the UK voted for independence from the unelected oligarchs of the EU. It's a bit presumptuous to assume they didn't weigh the costs and benefits. Unrestrained immigration by freeloading "refugees" was only one of their motivations.
It's a bit presumptuous to assume they didn't weigh the costs and benefits. Unrestrained immigration by freeloading "refugees" was only one of their motivations.
Two separate phenomena; immigration freeloading and allegedly establishing a mirage of "independence" by walking away from the EU (by devaluating your currency and hammering whatever investments one may have).
But, I may be wrong … time will tell.
Oh, I think you are right. Leaving the EU is a bad decision. But I understand their motives.
Cerenkov,
While England had to take it on the chin a bit from Germany, they are a closed border country. They did not get any Syrian refugees. Furthermore about 80% of all the UK's exports go to the EU. For anyone over 60, this will have a disastrous outcome for their retirement. That is why even most Tories were against it.
UK exports to the EU are closer to 50%, and you don't have to be a member to have trade agreements.
Exports are correct but you are not counting services, which makes up the difference. The EU has already said that they will put up trade blocks to England as punishment.
And for the record, the UK was pressured to accept Syrian "refugees".
If the EU oligarchs block trade with the UK, it will be a perfect illustration of why the UK should have left.
If the EU oligarchs block trade with the UK, it will be a perfect illustration of why the UK should have left.
IMO, that conclusion confuses cause-and-effect; if the British currency continues to decline, the UK's purchasing power will consequently erode and trade with EU and other countries with whom the UK trades, will have to export to the UK for less … bad situation all the way around.
Indeed Mac. From the Economist:
The priority for the rest of the EU will be to make sure that nobody follows Britain’s example. That precludes giving Britain a good deal.
In practice the EU will offer Britain only two possible deals. The first is to join Norway in the European Economic Area. This would preserve full access to the single market. But, like Norway, Britain would have to make a hefty contribution to the EU budget (Norway pays about 85% as much as Britain per head), observe all EU single-market regulations with no say in making them and, crucially, accept free movement of people from the EU. It is hard to imagine a post-Brexit government accepting this. The second is a free-trade deal like the EU’s with Canada. Yet this does not cover all trade, does not eliminate non-tariff barriers, excludes most financial services and could take years to agree.
The other option for Britain is to revert to trading with the EU as America, China and India do, under normal World Trade Organisation rules. But most economists say this would make the economic damage from Brexit worse. It would bring back mutual tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, food and fish. It would reinstate many non-tariff barriers. And it would exclude most services, including financial services.
It was a decision based on fear and xenophobia stoked by the leader of the UK Independent Party, who today acknowledged that some of his rhetoric with regard to the economic benefits of "LEAVING," WAS FALSE!
As with TRUMP-supporters here in the U.S., much of the "LEAVE" vote in the UK a from older (WHITE) zeal-without-knowledge "take-back-out-country" mentality. That very notion is predicated on the wrongly perceived vision of going back to "the good-old-days".
If my opinion regarding the hammering Brits will take is wrong, I WILL BE THE FIRST TO SAY "I WAS WRONG."
This is the manifestation of politicians pandering to the fears and prejudices of ignorant reactionaries.
The priority for the rest of the EU will be to make sure that nobody follows Britain’s example. That precludes giving Britain a good deal.
The self-acclaimed "Greatest Generation" and its progeny carry on the mythical legacy that WHITE, ENGLISH-SPEAKING (primarily) MEN are the entitled, inherent, natural born "leaders" of Western Civilization, and that most other nations and peoples are just that … "OTHERS"!
As non-whites increase their presence and influence in the white-western world, Caucasian males therein become the pander-target of insidious white political types who accuse those offended by such tactics, of "playing the race card," while they, the panderers and the pandered-to LIVE THE RACE CARD.
Be it the TRUMP-followers or the "LEAVE THE EU" DUPED ONES … because they dance to the haters tunes …
IMO, WE WILL ALL PAY THE PIPER!
My opinion, my metaphors … if I am ultimately proven wrong, I will be wrong happily, and happy to admit it.
Anytime people vote against the progressive vision for the world it's always the racist white mans fault.
if the British currency continues to decline, the UK's purchasing power will consequently erode and trade with EU and other countries with whom the UK trades, will have to export to the UK for less … bad situation all the way around.
True if it continues to erode, but if it settles down their exports will grow.
If the EU oligarchs block trade with the UK, it will be a perfect illustration of why the UK should have left.
The Brexit contagion: How France, Italy and the Netherlands now want their referendum too
V oters in France, Italy and the Netherlands are demanding their own votes on European Union membership and the euro, as the continent faces a “contagion” of referendums.
EU leaders fear a string of copycat polls could tear the organisation apart, as leaders come under pressure to emulate David Cameron and hold votes.
It came as German business leaders handed a considerable boost to the Leave campaign by saying it would be “very, very foolish” to deny the UK a free trade deal after Brexit.
~Link~
EU referendum: Brexit sparks calls for other EU votes
I put my money on them backing down because I know they are facing a powerful enemy who doesn't take losing so easily. They will not want to give up the power they've had over these people. Every bad thing that happens will be blamed on Brexit from here on out. Some words used to express what membership in the EU is today are: Out of touch, gravy train and redistribution. Sound familiar? It should. I do understand there will be difficult times ahead with so many people dependent on the EU membership. It's like a drug addiction. It starts off feeling good, but then you feel like you can't do without the drug, but you can if you are determined and fight for your freedom.
They should have stayed out like Switzerland in the first place. Once they saw both Hillary and Obama calling for them to stay they knew the right thing to do was to leave.
The UK voters who chose "LEAVE", IMO did so without actual knowledge of the potential, resultant fall out.
Exactly.
In I believe that more often than not, that's what most voters usually do (which is why we mostly have have such horrendous governments).
In TRUMP-SUPPORTER fashion, fear and emotions and the failure to ask prior to voting, "AND THEN WHAT?" … may reiterate the caveat, "Be Careful What You Wish For".
I think many voters who voted to leave will soon regret it. I understand why they did it-- but it was to a large degree an emotional knee-jerk reaction rather than the result of carefully thinking it through. (There were reasons to leave as well as to remain, but IMO the net result will be more negative than positive for most Brits).
but it was to a large degree an emotional knee-jerk reaction rather than the result of carefully thinking it through.
Actually Margaret Thatcher of all people understood well how the minds of the Hoi polloi function:
“Do you know that one of the great problems of our age is that we are governed by people who care more about feelings than they do about thoughts and ideas.”
― Margaret Thatcher
Well, I guess people the English got tired of being a client state of Germany. Merkles running roughshod over supposedly sovereign countries to force them to take refugees apparently woke enough people up to the anti-democratic, authoritarian nature of the EU.
Good day for democracy, bad day for authoritarians.
Britain stopped being 'special' right after WWI. People who think it will regain lost glory are hallucinating. They need Europe as much as Europe needs them.
No one thinks Britain is going to become an empire again or a superpower because they left the EU. They simply want to live under their own laws.
They have a way to 'secede', so that possibility always exist for all those countries. There is an impulsive nature to this decision. Their best hope is that they can remain close to the rest of Europe through new trade and defense agreements.
Europe has already said that they will block the UK's trade. That is why there is a huge possibility that Scotland will leave the UK, and this will damage their economy even more, since Scotland is doing very well.
". I am sure they didn't like having to take some orders from Germany " ( chuckling).
reminds me of the old joke I heard of whilst stationed in Belgium .
An air traffic controller was giving instructions to a Lufthansa liner at the Templehoff airport , and the pilot sarcastically replied , that he was a german pilot , flying a german plane form a german airline. , at a german airport , so why should he have to speak English.... before the controller could reply another pilot , with impeccable british accent answered ," because YOU lost the bloody war......."
LOL Mark I have a similar real life story.
We were in Paris on Veterans Day, which the Europeans call Armistice day. At Notre Dame there were two sets of veterans at the two front doors of the cathedral. At the first door, where the Brits, dressed in kilts and with bagpipes collecting money for their vets. At the second door where the French vets doing the same thing. I walked over to the Brits and gave them some money, then walked over to the French. There I saw a timeline of the war. At the end of the timeline it said in bold letters "French defeat Germans" and then in very small print it said, "with help from other allies". I flipped out and started to yell at them... "if it wasn't for the US and those guys over there (pointing to the Brits) you guys would all be speaking German.
The British vets applauded me and said 'We've been wanting to tell them that all day"
And I didn't leave them a dime.
They won't do that. It would hurt them.
The Scottish economy is doing very poorly.
Well the Scottish seem to feel differently:
The last two years must have really turned things around since his article is dated May 11, 2016 and yours is dated June 23, 2014.
No need for new defense agreements. The UK is in NATO which predates the EU and has at least three non EU members.
Sean,
I feel like a broken record, but Britain never had open borders, so they never took in any refugees. I am sure they didn't like having to take some orders from Germany, but you have to also realize that the German influence over Britain was minimal since their economy is as strong as Germany's. The only issue for England was the so called PIIGS nations, and supporting them.
YOu know there are open borders in the EU, right? To quote "the spectacle of Germany unilaterally deciding to change the face and future of the European Union by announcing Berlin had opened the doors to all comers – regardless of the wishes of or the impact this would have on other EU states – has been a powerful symbol of elite disconnect with the concerns of average Europeans and an uncomfortable reminder that Germany has come to dominate the union."
The only issue for England was the so called PIIGS nations, and supporting them.
That goes against every single piece of informed commentary , left or right, that I've read on the vote.
Sean,
England was the only country without open borders for immigration. If you are referring to freedom of travel, yes then there is open borders. I agree that a lot of this came from the fact that Germany was so dominant.
The only issue for England was the so called PIIGS nations, and supporting them.
That goes against every single piece of informed commentary , left or right, that I've read on the vote.
When Brits talk about supporting Europe, that is what they are referring to. Read this:
Yes they did.
They did that voluntarily... hence the promise and over a 5 year period. They did not have to. That is the big difference. And compared to Europe, 20,000 over 5 years was a drop in the bucket. But that didn't help Cameron's government, I would have to say.
They did it under pressure and eventually they would have been forced to take more. That's what this referendum was about.
There was a strong nationalist movement in the UK long before Syria. Did you ever hear of the BNP? The people who were nationalist were vocal long before this crisis.
Yes, but they didn't have enough support until the Brexit push.
Scotland voted heavily to stay in the EU and the decision to leave the EU will surely resurrect a Scottish initiative to leave the UK. Northern Ireland could go its own way too. The UK would collapse. As the French grow increasingly tired of open travel, France may be the next country to exit the EU. The rest could fall like dominoes as one country leaving the EU puts greater pressure on the remaining countries to absorb an endless tide of refugees.
But let's not forget what knocked Humpty Dumpty off the wall in the first place. Bush toppled Saddam and left Iraq vulnerable to Islamic fundamentalists. Obama rushed out of Iraq without stabilizing it. Then Obama/Hillary tried to topple Assad and exacerbated a civil war that led to hundreds of thousands of refugees. The fundamentalists started spreading from Iraq to Syria and beyond. Obama/Hillary also toppled Gaddafi, leading to a failed Syrian state, more fundamentalists, and more refugees. All these refugees headed to Europe and started flowing from one country to another through open borders. The result is that both the UK and the EU could fall apart. We (or rather Trump) make the problem worse by refusing to take any refugees even though we essentially created the problem. Yet Hillary says her foreign policy accomplishments make her the most knowledgeable person in history to run for President. If Hillary had accomplished any more as Secretary of State, she could have destroyed the world.
Scotland voted heavily to stay in the EU and the decision to leave the EU will surely resurrect a Scottish initiative to leave the UK.
Unlikely since the Scots have previously rejected independence from Britain .
I think Scotland will leave the UK. They voted 2 to 1 to stay in the EU.
Scotland voted heavily to stay in the EU and the decision to leave the EU will surely resurrect a Scottish initiative to leave the UK.
Unlikely since the Scots have previously rejected independence from Britain .
Part of the reason Scotland voted to stay in the UK is because the UK was part of the EU. That advantage has now been lost and Scotland has been dragged out of the EU against its will. Things have changed and with that change will come a renewed push for Scottish independence.
because the UK was part of the EU
Was not . Where do you get your misinformation from ?
What do you mean, Petey? The UK was part of the EU during the Scottish referendum.
The UK was not a full member of the EU at any time . For one thing they refused to give up their currency and use only the Euro ...
The media is reporting that Iran and Russia are "delighted" with this outcome. Why does that worry me.......
$2 Trillion Dollars got sucked out of the Global Economy in 600 minutes because a bunch of dumb, fucking older white people in the UK got suckered WILLINGLY into believing that leaving the EU was the equivalent of "taking back their country."
Bullshit! Both here in the U.S. and in Great Britain, "TAKING OUR COUNTRY BACK" (a.k.a. "Making America Great Again") really means "Fuck everyone that isn't White and Christian."
A devastatingly, literally costly PISSING IN THE WORLD'S FACE AND TELLING THE WORLD 'IT'S RAINING'.
Hatred is coming home to roost and bite us all in the ass.
$2 Trillion Dollars got sucked out of the Global Economy in 600 minutes
Where did it go?
Did it disappear? Remember, for every seller there has to be a buyer-- and versa vice!
Actually, I own a fair amount of stocks. And I didn't lose a cent! Why? Because I didn't sell anything at a loss. Remember, if every single stock a person owns plummeted today-- the only people who lost money are people who sold.
And in fact, only some of them-- those who let their emotions take over and sold at a loss. Others who sold today sold at a profit...
If people had a big "paper loss" today and didn't sell anything, they lost nothing. (And if, like the averages, their account went down 4% today-- and the goes up, let's say 6%, in the next month-- they are ahead).
I didn't lose any money today. Why? because I didn't sell anything at a loss.
In fact I only did two trades today. I sold one stock at a gain of 24%. And I'm happy the market went down because I bought something I've been meaning to buy for a while-- I got it at a good price. I could be wrong, but I think its going to move up over time.... (plus as I wait for it to move up, its paying me a dividend of well over 6% a year).
Grumpy old white guys that think it's foolish for people to vote for their independence hate seeing unrealized losses on their portfolio. Maybe they had stop losses that got triggered and they ended up with realized losses or locked in gains.
I wonder if these haters feel the same way about the Swiss, Norway or Liechtenstein for not wanting to give up their independence to the EU.
I think the real problem, in this country and in Europe, is that the open border simpletons have dismissed objections to open borders as nothing more than whining by ignorant grumpy old white hate-filled racist xenophobes. As a result, the EU did absolutely nothing to address this concern until the lid blew off and the UK walked out of the EU. France may follow, the EU will crumble, and the borders will go back up. This could have been handled by modifying open travel in the EU but, refusal to bend on this issue, will break the EU.
We face a similar problem here. Democrats are taking the lead in doing nothing to stop illegal immigration. In fact, rather than deport illegal aliens, Hillary and Bernie competed in offering benefits to make their stay as comfortable as possible (Obamacare, sanctuary cities, drivers licenses, etc.). And, no, I don't want to hear about a pathway to citizenship. I heard all these arguments when Reagan gave amnesty to 3 million illegal aliens and all we ended up with is 9 million more of them. There is no longer a middle ground on this issue and people are forced to pick one side or the other: either vote for Hillary and her do nothing border policy or vote for Trump who promises action. If people vote for a nitwit like Trump, it's because they saw no viable alternative just like people in the UK were left with no alternative but to walk out of the EU. So, yep, the world may be in for a bumpy ride.
Your one track mind is failing you. There isn't going to be a wall and there aren't going to be mass deportations.
Your one track mind is failing you. There isn't going to be a wall and there aren't going to be mass deportations.
There was never going to be a Brexit either until there was.
There isn't going to be a wall and there aren't going to be mass deportations.
I think a wall is a waste of money. My preference would be to start with eliminating federal money to sanctuary cities. Then give illegal aliens one year to get their affairs in order and get their asses out of here. If they're caught after that time, then they should be barred forever (or at least 10 years) from seeking legal status. They'll self-deport. Alternatively, create a bounty hunter division within INS and pay them $500 a head to find illegal aliens and deport them. Hire as many unemployed Americans as bounty hunters as necessary. Employment goes up; the number of illegal aliens goes down.
The French are keener on Britain leaving the EU than any other nationality in the bloc, a study has found.
More than 40 per cent of French respondents to a survey thought the UK should leave the EU, some three months ahead of the June referendum.
The research also showed many people in France also support having their own in/out referendum.
The majority of other EU countries show overwhelming support for the UK continuing its 40-year alliance.
But while 56 per cent of French people thought Britain should remain in the EU, 44 per cent wanted it to withdraw from the political and economic bloc, according to a the University of Edinburgh survey.
The figures were noticeably lower than in other countries such as in Germany, where 73 per cent wanted the UK to remain, Ireland, where 79 per cent wanted them to, and Sweden (67 per cent).
The survey asked respondents a question phrased identically to that which will be posed to Britons on June 23: "Should Britain remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
The survey asked respondents a question phrased identically to that which will be posed to Britons on June 23: "Should Britain remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"
And while Germany and Ireland in particular thought the UK's economic prospects and international voice would be weakened by a vote to "Leave", France did not.
"In [...] France, it is remarkable that more people think the UK economy would do better outside of the EU than there are people who think it would do worse if the UK remains a member of the EU, than there are people who think it would do worse if the UK remains a member of the EU," said the authors of the study.
A total of 30 per cent of respondents thought Britain's economy and, separately, its voice, would be "a lot or a little better" by withdrawing.
However, of those French people who think the British economy would suffer by leaving the EU, a third of those still thought the UK should leave - showing they think it should suffer the economic consequences anyway.
A laissez-faire attitude towards the political or economic fall-out of leaving the bloc after 40 years might also explain why many of the French themselves are in support of leaving.
Is 'Brexit' the Beginning of End for European Union?
Britons voted to leave the 28-member European Union and analysts are worried the outcome could have far-reaching consequences for Europe's political landscape.
A recent poll from YouGov showed that, out of seven countries polled, a majority in six of those felt that more countries would choose to leave the EU if a Brexit occurred.
Sixty-nine percent of Swedes believed it was likely there would be further exits from the EU "post-Brexit," with 66 percent of Danes and 57 percent of Norwegians feeling the same way.
Link
This is the issue: whether we believe in our capacity for self-government or whether we abandon the English dream and confess that a little intellectual elite in a distant land can plan our lives for us better than we can plan them ourselves.
Changed it a little, but you get message.
I think the fundamental transformation is falling apart at the seam.
Obama/Clinton's foreign policy blunders in Iraq, Syria, and Libya have led to a refugee tidal wave that flowed through the EU's open borders. The UK has now pulled out of the EU to stem the tide. Other than the enormous financial consequences of that decision, the diplomatic setback is significant. The U.K. was Obama's voice in the EU to impose and maintain sanctions on Russia (over Ukraine) and on Iran (over nuclear weapons). Losing his UK mouthpiece, along with the possible breakup of the EU, is a boon to Putin and a major setback for Obama. Without a united European sanctions front, Putin can begin picking off countries one at time and cajole them into lifting sanctions. NATO is not involved in sanctions so the only other place for a united front would be the UN. Russia, as a permanent member of the Security Council, can veto any action it doesn't like.
Perrie, there is backlash in the US after elections as well. People want to impose term limits, eliminate the electoral college, say the country is doomed etc.
I actually support term limits, elimination of the electoral college.. and a third party. I don't think that the country is doomed. I also don't think that our problems are the same as Britain's.
How many people voted in the UK? Is 1.6 million more a majority? Until something actually changes it is just speculation.
You seem to miss something Dennis. From the NYT:
The Leave side led with 17.4 million votes, or 52 percent, versus the Remain side’s 16.1 million.
2 million votes would have changed the outcome. So yes, that would be the new majority.
2 million votes would have changed the outcome.
There is zero evidence that these 2 million signers correspond to leave voters. Remain voters signed as well.
It only makes sense to assume the majority of the signers are people that voted to remain.