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A PERSONAL OPINION … A Prediction

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  community  •  8 years ago  •  66 comments

A PERSONAL OPINION … A Prediction

By A. Macarthur

• DONALD TRUMP WILL NOT BE THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN NOVEMBER, 2016

• Trump knows Clinton would embarrass him in any head-on-head debate … consequently TRUMP WILL FIND A WAY TO WEASAL OUT OF ANY/ALL DEBATES WITH CLINTON

• Trump WILL SABOTAGE HIS OWN CAMPAIGN BY FORCING PROMINENT REPUBLICANS TO WITHDRAW THEIR ENDORSEMENT AND/OR DECLARE THEIR SUPPORT FOR CLINTON

• Trump will BLAME THE REPUBLICAN PARTY FOR HIS INTENTIONALLY-FAILED CAMPAIGN AND URGE HIS SUPPORTERS TO PUNISH THE PARTY BY VOTING AGAINST "ALL THOSE ESTABLISHMENT REPUBLICANS RUNNING FOR OFFICE IN 2016"!

• Trump will, in exile from the Republican Party, in an act of ego-mania and revenge, do whatever TO INSURE THE DE FACTO DEMISE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND, IF/WHEN DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF THE WHITE HOUSE, SENATE and HOUSE (the HOUSE unlikely, IMO), TRUMP WILL PROCLAIM FAR AND WIDE THAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY FELL BECAUSE HE "PULLED BACK THE CURTAIN ON ITS FOIBLES."

And that would ironically, be true!

This is my opinion based ONLY on MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCES in political campaigns, authoring of P.R. materials and editorial writing background.

Feel free to pick it apart.

But, any attempts to pick me apart personally will cause me to have such comments removed.


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A. Macarthur
Professor Guide
link   seeder  A. Macarthur    8 years ago

My opinion … 

 
 
 
Randy
Sophomore Participates
link   Randy  replied to  A. Macarthur   8 years ago

Sounds about right to me.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
link   Krishna  replied to  A. Macarthur   8 years ago

My opinion … 

Well, you might be right. I can't remember if we've ever had such a seriously mentallyl ill person run for president in recent times....

But as a famous yogi once said:

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.

-Yogi Berra

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
link   Krishna  replied to  Krishna   8 years ago

My opinion … 

Well, you might be right. I can't remember if we'veg ever had such a seriously mentallyl ill person run for president in recent times....

But as a famous yogi once said:

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.

-Yogi Berra

I could be wrong, but my own guess is that he will actually continue to be the Republican candidate, and will lose the election. (Which of course would bring disaster to the Republican party, as it would also sweep Republican candidates to defeat in the Senate and possibly the House as well. And how many of president Hillary Clinton's candidate for the Supreme Court will be nominated?)

Many Republicans are starting to wake up to the truth of the olde sayng:

Lie down with dogs...wake up with fleas

 

 

 
 
 
sixpick
Professor Quiet
link   sixpick  replied to  Krishna   8 years ago

Lie down with dogs...wake up with fleas

And that my friend is exactly what the Republican leadership has been doing for the last 7 plus years.

 

 
 
 
Dowser
Sophomore Quiet
link   Dowser    8 years ago

It's beginning to look like the establishment republicans are distancing themselves from him-- refusing to endorse him, making speeches about Trump's declarations, etc.  It disappoints me that they haven't done it sooner.  But, I guess, sooner now than later.

I don't know, A. Mac.  I can't predict anything.  I thought no one would vote for a non-KY boy, an obvious fruit cake, and a creep, but Rand Paul was elected...  So, I'm afraid to make any kind of prediction.  There's just no telling what the American Public will do.  Trump obviously has a lot of supporters.  A lot of our members support him.  Trump seems to tap into the anger and prejudice of some people, stoke it up, and make it ok to behave in socially unacceptable ways.

 
 
 
A. Macarthur
Professor Guide
link   seeder  A. Macarthur    8 years ago

One addition part of my opinion/prediction … which I'll add to the original points …

• Trump will, in exile from the Republican Party, do whatever TO INSURE THE DE FACTO DEMISE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, AND, IF/WHEN DEMOCRATS TAKE CONTROL OF THE WHITE HOUSE, SENATE and HOUSE (unlikely, IMO), and if successful in doing so, WILL PROCLAIM FAR AND WIDE THAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY FELL BECAUSE HE "PULLED BACK THE CURTAIN ON ITS FOIBLES."

And that would ironically, be true!

 
 
 
Randy
Sophomore Participates
link   Randy  replied to  A. Macarthur   8 years ago

He has already said that, if (when) he loses he's going to fund 2 or 3 groups, with $10 million each, to fight against all Democrats and all Republicans who didn't support him in their re-election bids next time. My question is, where is he going to come up with the $30 million (since he is only a billionaire in his mind) that will take and will he actually be too stingy (as he is now) to do it. Also doesn't he grasp that it would take one hell of a lot more money then that to pull it off?

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
link   Krishna  replied to  A. Macarthur   8 years ago

Trump will, in exile from the Republican Party, do whatever TO INSURE THE DE FACTO DEMISE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY

Definitely. As a resut of Trump, the republican Party will be very weak for at least 4 yers. (As as a result of trump's efforts, after at least 4 years of a Hillary Clinton presidency, there will be at least one new liberal appointed to the Supreme Court).

After all that more Republicans will begin to realize how they screwed themselves by not uniting earlier to stop Trump... (some already have:  Trump Allies Plot Candidate Intervention After Disastrous 48 Hours -- but eventually more will begin to wake up)

 

 
 
 
PJ
Masters Quiet
link   PJ    8 years ago

I agree with much of what has been mentioned for the most part.  There is a shift in the country's politics and what the American people want from the established parties.  I see the Republican and Democratic party platforms slowly enveloping into more Libertarian and Socialist positions as they battle to balance each other with the Tea Party emerging from the more conservative faction of the Republican party.  I agree - there will be a 3rd party.

I still think my earlier prediction from April will come to be which is that Trump's brand will be destroyed and Melania will leave him because no one likes a loser.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
link   Krishna  replied to  PJ   8 years ago

I still think my earlier prediction from April will come to be which is that Trump's brand will be destroyed

Yup. 

But perhaps more importantly, the Republican Party will be destroyed by Trump's candidacy (short term-- eventually they'll recover)

 
 
 
A. Macarthur
Professor Guide
link   seeder  A. Macarthur  replied to  Krishna   8 years ago

But perhaps more importantly, the Republican Party will be destroyed by Trump's candidacy (short term-- eventually they'll recover)

Maybe long term as the demographics of the U.S. is changing … current "minorities" won't be that for too much longer.

 

 
 
 
Dowser
Sophomore Quiet
link   Dowser    8 years ago

Has anyone but me noticed that not one word has been said on this site about nude pictures of Melania surfacing?   I know this is no comparison, but if nude pictures of Laura Bush or Tipper Gore had surfaced, there would have been a HUGE Bruhaha on this site...

 
 
 
A. Macarthur
Professor Guide
link   seeder  A. Macarthur  replied to  Dowser   8 years ago

I know this is no comparison, but if nude pictures of Laura Bush or Tipper Gore had surfaced, there would have been a HUGE Bruhaha on this site...

I'll hold my judgement until I've seen all such pictures …

 
 
 
Dowser
Sophomore Quiet
link   Dowser  replied to  A. Macarthur   8 years ago

Smart!  I just read a brief blurb about it-- nothing in depth...  Bess Truman would have been aghast at the very thought of such a thing!  Happy

 
 
 
Cerenkov
Professor Silent
link   Cerenkov  replied to  Dowser   8 years ago

Why? I don't think anyone cares about nude pictures anymore.

 
 
 
Dowser
Sophomore Quiet
link   Dowser  replied to  Cerenkov   8 years ago

Obviously not.  We've gone so far beyond the pale that a "normal" scandal is nothing in comparison...  winking

How have you been, Cerenkov?  Is it hot enough for you?  We've been baking.  It rains every day, and then the humidity stays high-- so it's like trying to breathe in a blanket...  Miserable!

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
link   Krishna  replied to  Cerenkov   8 years ago

Why? I don't think anyone cares about nude pictures anymore.

Speak for yourself!

I love to look at pictures of bare nekkid ladies-- does anyone have a link?

 
 
 
96WS6
Junior Quiet
link   96WS6    8 years ago

Seeing as Trump was a liberal before he claimed he is a Republican you may have something.  Perhaps his whole endgame is making sure there is no one to vote for but Hillary.

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
link   Krishna  replied to  96WS6   8 years ago

Seeing as Trump was a liberal before he claimed he is a Republican you may have something.  Perhaps his whole endgame is making sure there is no one to vote for but Hillary.

Well, there are third parties-- the Greens, the Libertarians. of course voting for either of them is wasting your vote....but some folks really aren't too bright :-(

 
 
 
1ofmany
Sophomore Silent
link   1ofmany    8 years ago

Trump's as likely to drop out as Hillary is to be indicted. Trump's followers don't care that he's a no-nothing bombastic buffoon because he's running against Hillary, who's an incompetent lying scoundrel. While Hillary runs a classic political campaign, Trump is running a marketing campaign. No matter what Trump does and says, he basically keeps up with Hillary in the polls. Why? He realized that being a carefully scripted moderate conservative doesn't get traction so he decided to turn the election into the Jerry Springer show or a WWE wrestling event. He's aiming at the Jerry Springer/wrestling audience who couldn't give a rat's ass about debates, issues, policies, etc. They want somebody who'll bluntly stand his ground, punch the establishment in the face, and then throw it over the ropes or just insult his opponent like the Springer audience does the guests. 

All the talking heads said he was being suicidal in his methods and all have been dead wrong. Trump scored a record number of votes in the Republican primaries. How? By attracting disaffected blue collar white voters (Springer/WWE audience) . . . lots of them. He runs his shtick past his rally crowds like a focus group. If they like it then they get more; if they don't like it, then he scales it back. His marketing brand is his bluntness and authenticity. If you're not interested in what he's selling, then you're not in his target audience and he doesn't care.

So, to me, it's like this. Hillary runs high percentages among minorities and professionals. Trump runs high percentages among the white blue collar set (even across party lines). Hillary will not turn out a minority vote equal in numbers to Obama because she's not Obama. Trump will turn out blue collar white voters in numbers that we haven't seen in decades. Whoever motivates the most of their respective voters to turn out will win and I bet it has nothing to do with how Trump does in the debates or how many establishment republicans he throws under the bus. 

 
 
 
PJ
Masters Quiet
link   PJ  replied to  1ofmany   8 years ago

yeah......yeah......yeah.........but what do you think about the naked pictures.  That's the real question.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Guide
link   Nowhere Man  replied to  PJ   8 years ago

Seen one seen them all.....

Some look more attractive than others, but they are still the same.

 
 
 
1ofmany
Sophomore Silent
link   1ofmany  replied to  PJ   8 years ago

I had a cyst removed from the back of my head once and the doctor asked if I wanted to see it. At first I said no but then I changed my mind. After all when would I see a cyst again? So, if I'd look at a cyst, then I'd probably look at Hillary naked and for the same reason. 

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Expert
link   Buzz of the Orient  replied to  1ofmany   8 years ago

laughing dude

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Guide
link   Nowhere Man  replied to  1ofmany   8 years ago

1, Brother that's the thing people don't get. he could care less about his detractors. he's a rah rah guy being the stick in the mud or the poke in the eye.

And lord knows we have needed a poke in the eye to mainstream establishment politics for a long time now.

This is a wake up call to the politicians from the electorate. ALL the pundits have been wrong so far.

ALL OF THEM!

Even the vaunted Nate Silver and his fraudulent super accurate poll averaging cant explain it. The democrats have come out with such wild stuff to try and get ahead of him and cant. So wild in fact to border on the ridiculous. But still can't touch him...

Full court press smear mode and he hasn't lost a point in fact the race keeps tightening...

If he actually wins this there is ONLY one conclusion to come to.

The people have spoken people who haven't spoken in a long time....

But never the less they will have spoken and rendered their judgment on politics as usual.

 
 
 
A. Macarthur
Professor Guide
link   seeder  A. Macarthur  replied to  Nowhere Man   8 years ago

Again, my OPINION … I don't believe Trump wants to be POTUS! I believe he got in as an ego-trip and now is scared-to-death that he's gotten this far. I further believe he knows he's in way over his head, and, to avoid a failed catastrophe of a Presidency, world-wide embarrassment, shame and ridicule for the rest of his life … HE WILL FIND A WAY TO EXIT THE RACE AND ENGINEER IT IN SUCH A WAY AS TO BLAME THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, THE "SYSTEM" and EVERYTHING BUT HIS OWN CULPABILITY.

He has already begun to speculate that "THE ELECTION COULD BE RIGGED," and concocted a bullshit story regarding the NFL and the DEBATE SCHEDULE.

IMO, he's on the way out, and once he's out, he'll claim "MARTYR STATUS" … the one who stuck it to the "Establishment".

But we'll see.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
Professor Expert
link   Buzz of the Orient  replied to  A. Macarthur   8 years ago

To weasel his way out, what better than having to declare that the Trump U class action against him has poisoned the waters and since it is impossible for him to win because of that, he will do the gentlemanly thing and hand it over to a new Republican contender.

 
 
 
Randy
Sophomore Participates
link   Randy  replied to  A. Macarthur   8 years ago

I don't believe Trump wants to be POTUS! I believe he got in as an ego-trip and now is scared-to-death that he's gotten this far.

I absolute agree. If he becomes President then he'll have account for all of his assents and then have them held in a blind trust (and no, that doesn't mean in his children's hands) and the world will know, if not his tax records, just how little he is really worth. Sevaral months ago (well before he endorsed Hillary and before Trump got the nomination) Mark Cuban said a billionaire is a person who has a billion dollars in the bank in liquid assets and that he would be shocked if Trump had $200 million in liquid assets. So he may need the job for the paycheck.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
link   JohnRussell    8 years ago

Full court press smear mode and he hasn't lost a point in fact the race keeps tightening...

Not sure where this is coming from. Must be your private "sources" . The last six or seven polls that have come out show Clinton moving into a clear lead of between 4 and 9 pts. 

-

 

Donald Trump, in Trumpmind, has to win. He can win by either winning the election, or by positioning himself as a martyr that had the election taken from him. The second scenario has not developed yet, so he has to keep going until he can claim that his defeat was a conspiracy against him. If Trump goes down double digits in a series of polls the conspiracy theory that it was stolen from him will kick in, because that will be all he has left at that point. 

The future is still murky. Whatever happens one thing is the surest bet, it will be somebody else's fault, not Donald Trump's.

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Guide
link   Nowhere Man  replied to  JohnRussell   8 years ago

Yep, convention bump....

Donald got one and so did Hillary.

That's a wash, since both are in the same percentage rise.....

In two weeks we will see if it stuck....

Highly doubtful.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
link   JohnRussell  replied to  Nowhere Man   8 years ago

The latest poll , new today, is from Fox News and has Clinton up 10. 

They have succeeded in demonstrating that Trump is not qualified to be president. That is the reason for the 10 pt. spread. 

Trump can't fix this in an era of viral videos and ubiquitous commentary. He has been deemed unqualified by a majority of Americans and there is no way to change that. 

 
 
 
Nowhere Man
Junior Guide
link   Nowhere Man  replied to  JohnRussell   8 years ago

yep, according to you....

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
link   Sean Treacy    8 years ago

It wouldn't surprise me. Trump was a big  democratic donor and friend of the the CLintons before running. He famously called Bill for advice before declaring his candidacy. Going on what some of his original staff said, he originally wanted to create some chaos and do well before bowing out with his "brand" enhanced. I don't think many people, least all of him, foresaw the chain of circumstances that would allow him to win the nomination.

Now's he in trouble as his former friends in the media who were willing to give him so much publicity when we was running for the nomination are out to destroy him and his brand.  I don't think Trump can withstand three months of mockery and attacks from the mainstream media. Given that he spends more time attacking Republicans then Clinton, he's probably setting up an exit strategy where he blames Republicans for not supporting him. He'll wait until the early voting has started and withdraw blaming Republicans for stabbing him in the back. And then he'll endorse, Clinton which was probably the plan all along, except he and Bill probably thought he would it in March as opposed to September. 

As for the party as a whole, I doubt it will have much impact. Trump is the only Republican, maybe Carson, who CLinton could have beaten. And There will always be two parties. I saw an analysis the other day where the election analyst  said the Republicans will probably hold the Senate. He quoted a Republican electoral consultant who said if you had told them in January 2015 (when Trump was off the radar) that Senate polling would look this in August 2016, the Republicans would take it in a heartbeat. A late Trump ditch out will probably help the party as the PResidency will be a foregone conclusion and people will be motivated to stop Hillary, who will become  the candidate  with the worst approval rating ever to win the Presidency. And then both parties will start working on 2020.  

 
 

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