Gary Johnson doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. In recent elections, third-party candidates have tended to lose support as Election Day approaches. But the Libertarian Party presidential nominee and former New Mexico governor is holding steady in the polls, and we’ve reached a point in the race at which past third-party candidates had already started to see their support nose-dive.
Johnson is pulling in about 9 percent in the national polls, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-only average . And his share in national polls has not fallen as we’ve gotten closer to the election. Indeed, Johnson’s support right now is higher than many other viable 1 third-party candidates’ at a similar point in campaigns since 1948.
| CAMPAIGN | CANDIDATE | LATE SUMMER POLLING AVG.* | ELECTION RESULTS | DIFFERENCE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1948 | Henry Wallace | 4% | 2% | -2 |
| 1948 | Strom Thurmond | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 1968 | George Wallace | 17 | 14 | -3 |
| 1980 | John Anderson | 14 | 7 | -7 |
| 1992 | Ross Perot | 20 | 19 | -1 |
| 1996 | Ross Perot | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 2000 | Ralph Nader | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| 2012 | Gary Johnson | 2 | 1 | -1 |
| 2016 | Gary Johnson | 9 | — | — |
| Average | 9 | 7 | -2 |
*Average of polls conducted in the seven days ending on Aug. 25 of each election year.
SOURCES: ROPER CENTER, GALLUP, FIVETHIRTYEIGHT POLLING DATABASE
Johnson is pulling in at least twice as much of the vote as Henry Wallace or Strom Thurmond was in late August 1948, as Ralph Nader was in 2000 and certainly as Johnson himself was four years ago. Perhaps even more impressive is that Johnson is polling right about where Ross Perot was in 1996, when Perot had a nationally known name after his strong 1992 run . That said, Johnson is nowhere near the success of that 1992 campaign: Perot was pulling in 20 percent as a hypothetical candidate after leaving the 1992 campaign in July but before re-entering the race in October .
And notice: Most third-party candidates didn’t lose that much support between late summer and Election Day. Besides John Anderson in 1980, no candidate ended up finishing more than 3 percentage points below where they were polling in late August. The average drop-off is about 2 percentage points. Anderson, meanwhile, was already fading at this point in the campaign. In Gallup’s polling, for example, his support peaked at 24 percent in early summer and by now had dropped by 10 percentage points.
The FiveThirtyEight polls-plus model is adjusting to Johnson’s staying power: It discounts third-party candidates’ support based on their tendency to lose steam down the stretch, but it’s grown less skeptical of Johnson as his polling numbers have held up. Johnson was projected to finish with 6.5 percent of the vote in mid-July when he was polling slightly higher than he is today. Now, the model is projecting that Johnson will win 7.1 percent of the national vote on Election Day. That’s 2 percentage points less than where the national polls have him at this point, which is pretty much exactly what we’d we expect considering the average 2-point drop-off for past third-party candidates.
Why is Johnson’s support proving more durable than past third-party candidates’? The most obvious answer is that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are extremely unpopular for major party presidential nominees; if third-party voters eventually settled on a major party nominee in past campaigns for fear of “wasting their vote,” they may be less willing to settle this year. (Of course, Johnson’s support may simply fade later than past third-party candidates.)
There is, however, some bad news for Johnson in his steady numbers: They’re not going up either. He’s showing no signs of reaching 15 percent in national polls, the threshold necessary to get into the debates . Still, if he ends up with 7 percent of the vote — as we’d expect based upon history and the current polls — the Libertarian Party will qualify for federal campaign funding in 2020, and Johnson will claim the highest share of the vote of any non-major party nominee in 20 years.
We shall see.
Unless he is a "contender" on election day, according to the polls, his actual vote total will almost surely go down. People will make the choice between those that can win. Perot got so many votes in '92 because some people actually believed he could win in a three way race. He was leading Clinton and Bush in the polls for a time.
As of now, I don't think that will be the case with Johnson.
After Wikileaks dumps the rest of the goods on Hillary people will be flocking to him.
If that is true Dean, I happen to agree with you. It would take a perfect storm of events.
Question for you John. Let's say Assange "Surprise" is true, and Hillary gets into hot water, how do you see this playing out?
Unless Clinton is indicted on a felony, which is very unlikely, she is not dropping out. It is too late for her to be forced out because of "scandal".
I think Johnson will end up with 7 or 8%, which is much higher than the usual third party candidate. So far he appears to be taking more votes away from Clinton than Trump, which surprises a lot of people, including me.
That was not my question. What would happen if she was indicted?
I would not vote for her if she were indicted, and because she would lose so much support she would have to drop out.
I guess either Kaine or maybe Biden would become the nominee, and I would vote for them.
It is AMAZING that people think there is ANY circumstance under which it would be appropriate to vote for Donald Trump.
If you are asking if Johnson could then win if Clinton were out of the race, the answer is no, with one caveat. If Clinton were indicted 3 or 4 days before the election it could throw it up for grabs.
What do you think will happen if Clinton gets indicted?
What do you think will happen if Clinton gets indicted?
From the Dems POV, one of two things. They will either put Bernie up as their candidate, or they will look for someone else.. say like Biden. But since Bernie was the runner up and it was fairly close, I am going with Bernie.
Those who are firmly in the Trump camp, will remain there. Those who get sick of his reinvention might look else where.
Then there is the question of Johnson. I think if Clinton gets indicted, and the DNC floats, Johnson will get the numbers needed for the debates and I think for a lot of independents and undecideds, he is very appealing. No I don't agree with all of his POV's but he's honest and likeable and has been a good gov. Also he is an outsider as much as Bernie is.
Gary Johnson believes in ZERO gun control.
He is against government action on climate change.
He is against the social safety net, and would end all "welfare" , food stamps, EITC,
and
would end Social Security (gradually)
He would end the income tax.
"All persons are entitled to keep the fruits of their labor. We call for the repeal of the income tax, the abolishment of the Internal Revenue Service and all federal programs and services not required under the U.S. Constitution. "
LP platform
He would end OSHA, the EPA, and all mandated health and safety regulations.
and more
People are not going to vote for this once they understand it.
That's why people are going to vote for him.
He doesn't have a chance.
perrie , I think what your asking is very much up in the air , and dependant on who wins in the congressional races, meaning who is in control of congress. they are seated before an inauguration remember.
if there is an indictment , there would be a question as to an impeachment, even before the inauguration if she should win. and something to remember also , is no president has ever been removed from office even after an impeachment. But it would be a first , a president impeached even before they took the oath of office. not a good way to start an administration I think.
As for Johnson taking Hillary voters being a surprise , not to me , even though he won as a republican , he has views that are on the liberal side of that party , and thus somewhat acceptable to the conservative end of the democratic party that seem to think the party went too far left , just as he may appeal to the more liberal contingent within the republican party.
there are some things he has been saying I can agree on and accept , some things I don't , but can still accept, either way he appears to be more acceptable IMHO to me , than either of the other candidates the 2 major parties have put forth.
for me its going to come down to a matter of trust when I cast my vote , I have already stated I have absolutely no trust in the democratic party candidate , and have very slightly more in the republican candidate , but so far , the libertarian has just enough of my trust that he is in consideration, but between now and election day , that can all change in a heart beat. to the frustration of the partisan hacks .
There is no way that Gary Johnson can be elected on merit. His one chance in a million would be if Clinton were to be indicted just before the election.
If there is time for a Democratic candidate to campaign against Johnson he's not going to get many Democratic votes.
With few exceptions, the libertarian party platform is the opposite of everything the Democratic Party believes in.
I would have thought that with the unfortunate choice between two flawed candidates the electorate might actually seek for a third alternative. John's explanation that people will vote for a person who can win, and Johnson does not have that appearance at this time, is convincing. As I've said elsewhere, the American people's minds are set in concrete when it comes to party loyalty. Is there not a saying "Our country, right or wrong"? I guess that applies to parties as well.
Or perhaps Johnson/Weld doesn't appeal to them either, Buzz.
As I've said elsewhere, the American people's minds are set in concrete when it comes to party loyalty.
Buzz,
This is true for the party loyal, but the majority of America is independent right now. For us, we are looking at all the possibilities.
Yes, Perrie, but you as an American having been faced with the candidates of the two major parties, and what you now know about them, why would you not think "A pox on both your houses" and raise the third or even fourth possibility to the level where they could be contenders? You speak of being independent, yet as the polls show, you are not, not anywhere out of the usual percentage for third or fourth parties - 9%.
They're hanging in there, aren't they? Best of luck to them!
If Gary makes the debates, I hope that he doesn't pull out his ''Johnson'' on national TV.
You can go to jail for doing that...D.O.M.
Their motto could be, ''Weld my Johnson''...Painful but catchy.
I'd watched that debate!
It certainly would be interesting, since Trump has big hands he would have to attempt to match sizes..
LOL, a wrinkled weenie for the Trumpster..
ok gold member.....
we already had a Johnson bragging about his member , even nicknamed it JUMBO.....
Well, that is putting a man in the White House, LOL!
I thought he named it DUMBO, Mark.
All of you who are ''feeling the Johnson'' might want to reconsider.
I have never heard a man complain about that before, Kavika... so long as it was a woman's touch.
It's their motto, so I suspect their are many males that might want to reconsider their ''support''....
I'm sure one of you guys could just hand him a slingshot for that... see you can give him support and still be a man!
Er, no...
Actually, this is the Johnson I would like to feel again. Although my boat had a 70 hp Evinrude (which I believe is just another brand name for a Johnson) they were the best days of my life.
Buzz that isn't a real Johnson, it's a fake mechanical Johnson. I think that there is a name for it.
????
He's high.
HAHAHAHAHA - You're probably right.
He could be drunk AND high and do a better job than Hillary.
and he hasn't gotten caught on camera smoking it like SOME people
96, we're talking about Johnson here, please pay attention.