Baron Creek

One Man's Stupid Opinion - The Coming Storm!

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Politics  •  2 months ago  •  57 comments

One Man's Stupid Opinion - The Coming Storm!
Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!

Warning to all Sanders supporters and anti-Trump folks. You might not like this.

The democratic party is nearing a crisis and will find itself hard pressed to overcome obstacles it has placed in its own path. Granted you can find any number of polls that suggest any democrat will beat Trump and I AM referring to individual state polls with electoral votes. Most of the Democrats have an edge when adding in the heavy leans. I question the validity of those polls, based on evidence from 2016. 

Much was made of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania and the narrow vote margins. 

MIchigan had Clinton losing nearly 300,000 from Obama's 2012 figures. I heard a lot of reasons, but I think they were mostly "excuses". Trump did gain about 180,000 from Romney's 2012 figures. Was it Anti-Clinton? The total number of votes were up 1.67%. In 2012, there was 65,491 votes for 3rd party candidates. In 2016 that figure was 276,160. Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes. 16 electoral votes.

Wisconsin had a similar tale to tell. Clinton 2016 was about 240,000 below Obama's 2012. Trump's numbers were a scant -2,500 below Romney's 2012. 3rd party votes jumped from 39,483 in 2012 to 188,330 in 2016. Trump won the state by 22,748. 10 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania's number for Clinton was 64,000 less that Obama in 2012. Trump was 290,000 ahead of Romney's 2012. 3rd party in 2012 was 84,912 and 269,882 in 2016. There was an overall jump in 3rd party votes across many states in 2016. 6.04%, which was a big jump from previous years and tops back to 1996 (Perot).

The theory has been the 3rd party jump was due to one of 4 things...

  1. Democrats/Independents that felt Clinton's lead was insurmountable.
  2. Democrats/Independents that found Clinton somehow unelectable.
  3. Sanders supports that broke ranks, but not for Trump.
  4. There was genuine interest in the 3rd party candidate.

Of course, there could be more. #4 had the same candidates as 2008, with the exception of McMullin, which doesn't even come close to explaining the jump. #1 and #2, while possibly valid in 2016, should not be an issue in 2020... so far. 

That leaves #3 and the problem the party has. Just as Trump said he could shoot someone and get away with it, some of the Sanders supporters feel the same way about their man. You know the type... They say they will vote for any democrat, but actually mean Sanders only.

By this time next month, the delegate counts will eliminate a few candidates, but there will still be 4~5 in it to win it, imo. A first ballot nomination will likely be out of the question or extremely difficult, as well... unless 2 or 3 of the above step aside. Then it would still be tough.

It's about to get ugly and a lot of voters are going to be turned off or away, imo.

Oh well, it was a fun way to spend a Friday afternoon!

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TᵢG
1  TᵢG    2 months ago

Adding this comment so that your blog appears on the front page.

( An article needs at least one comment to appear on the front page. )

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2  author  Baron Creek    2 months ago

Thanks! Although I am not real sure how I should feel about being on the front page of anything. jrSmiley_55_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
2.1  igknorantzrulz  replied to  Baron Creek @2    2 months ago

i tore my front page right through the cover of my back pages,.

i guess i'll read the seed now.

if TiG put you on the front page, either i will enjoy it, or we will discuss for days the origin of religious scriptures that will overdose me like a junk bonded to the dog without a fight in the yard with a runner that doesn't jog

my memory

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
2.2  igknorantzrulz  replied to  Baron Creek @2    2 months ago

you may have to dumb it down for me and most around here, but i think i get your jist, and unfortunately i would have to agree to a degree for the dung on dungarees

isn't always the shit on pants that all must be put on one leg at a time unless you are jumping off the roof into skinny genes that count higher than 23 and me.

I don't be leave all Dem candidates will beat Trump. His followers are decout cultists that can't join

a society where so what about ANY behavior is excepted by those unacceptable to ethically cleansed and washed brains dried in stale air plains at the foot of mountains that were eroded by morally deficient and blinded minds that leaked a grand canyon so as to mount an Everest    on a wall

Mexican tall and taled to be pulled over molecular dissections by inhaling formaldehyde while laugh in at Jekyll without all the Hee Haw in

Sorry good new poster, i'm venting today and in know weigh meant to scale your good article of, a , the  that i wear like i clothe on  a hanger for plane bagels that have everything

.

TiG can explain, or at least give you his honest logical de escalation

Welcome, and abundant blessings if you should ever sneeze out a Corona with lime 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
3  JohnRussell    2 months ago

The third party candidates in 2016 got more free tv time than usually happens for minor party candidates. 

The Libertarian Party candidates were both former US governors. The Green Party candidate had been photographed sitting at Vladimir Putin's table at a Russian state dinner. 

The third party candidates were higher profile than usual. 

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
4  igknorantzrulz    2 months ago

by the way,

i do not find your opinion stupid.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
4.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  igknorantzrulz @4    2 months ago

Thank you very much. You are clearly giving me benefit of the doubt at this early stage. Just wait...jrSmiley_32_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
5  Perrie Halpern R.A.    2 months ago

Interesting first article. 

I guess the election will come down really to one thing. If Sanders' supporters will support another dem, if Sanders doesn't win the nomination. If he does win the nomination, can he get enough from the indies/ unhappy Republicans to beat Trump. Personally, I don't think so. But I've been wrong before :)

 
 
 
TᵢG
5.1  TᵢG  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @5    2 months ago

I would have thought Sanders supporters would go with Hillary, but many of them just pouted and let Trump slide into the White House.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
5.1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  TᵢG @5.1    2 months ago

Baron Creek seems to indicate in his article that many anti-Bernie anti-Trump votes would go to third parties.  This could be a bonanza year for a third party candidate.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
5.1.2  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @5.1.1    2 months ago

Except there are none that are viable. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1.3  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @5.1.1    2 months ago

I may have somehow misled you. My theory would be that Sanders' supporters would go with a 3rd party or stay home if he is not the nominee. Anti-Trump voters would still vote democratic. My contention is that many Sanders supporters and many Trump supporters are not that far apart, concerning rigidity of their choice and belief in their candidate.

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
5.1.4  igknorantzrulz  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @5.1.2    2 months ago

viability is like dat or dis

ability to me when i look at things through the contact of glasses drawing liquid from my eyes that i dot like tease cause it's mean on average for Joe, momma always said viability is one indiependent individual's dis...

or

maybe it was shut up, 

i can't dismember her cause she already went through the woods all chipper.

There is no third party candidate that will draw any substantial number of voters away from the extremely flawed two party system. I too, believe Bernie will not have enough backing to beat the entrenched in feeble minds trump card from Hellmark my words though, 

if Trump is reelected, there is going to be more division than if he is removed. How people can be so ignorant as to the truth about this POS potUS has gone beyond tolerable for too many. True PAtriots will risefrom those around him, and take down the Orange Clown who SHOULD HAVE NEVER BEEN ABLE TO GET THIS FAR.

The GOP will implode upon itself, as their are MANY who realize they FCKED up, and should have stopped the mental midget before his momentum got to this

point, that should have been made before the eggs were laid,

as the infestation is deep, as they drown in denial from a pyramid schemed from a carnival clown who nose not how to stop what he never started as he was put in by Putin and those who never imagined their neglect could cause such catastrophic conclusions while he lives the illusion of a pharaoh who never got enough attention from his mummy's brother, also known as a sperm donor, cause something went drastically a fowl in his genetic maybeline make up that caused him to marry k  

and Kay, and another K from the bankrupt mart he shopped for his brides till male man delivered for he hadn't

the onions

 
 
 
pat wilson
5.1.5  pat wilson  replied to  igknorantzrulz @5.1.4    2 months ago

Another masterpiece !

 
 
 
Ronin2
5.1.6  Ronin2  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @5.1.1    2 months ago

Take it for someone that campaigned for Gary Johnson in my area of Michigan- it won't be.

If no third party candidate could even garner 10% of the votes with the two most toxic main party candidates ever for POTUS; then this time around will be no different.

The left will try to galvanize their supporters behind whichever candidate rolls out of their insane exploding clown car of left wing loons; and the right will throttle any Republican that dares to even talk about crossing over to the Democratic side to vote. Romney you listening? Never mind- you are already toast.

As for independents, they will again be forced to hold their noses and vote for the lesser of two evils. The only question is if 3 years of left wing bullying over Clinton's loss, and impeach Trump at all costs stupidity, has alienated them into backing Trump.  Chances are no one will know until election time.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
5.1.7  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Ronin2 @5.1.6    2 months ago

This will be one very interesting election to watch, I'm sure.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
5.1.8  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @5.1.2    2 months ago

Actually I've not seen anything about third parties and/or their leaders for this election period yet.

 
 
 
r.t..b...
5.1.9  r.t..b...  replied to  Ronin2 @5.1.6    2 months ago
Chances are no one will know until election time.

This will be an election unlike any other, regardless the Dem opponent who emerges from the convention. As always, it will be the independents and moderates who will determine the ultimate victor.

Are they able to envision another four years with the reborn King George III and the corresponding madness of a lame-duck presidency or can they envision a 180 degree departure from the status quo and accept four years of rollbacks, EO's and unknown policy changes.

For this moderate, I'll take the unknown over the familiar, for the familiar has been nothing short of a national embarrassment. His divisive actions, both foreign and domestic, will take decades and numerous future administrations to repair. Of course, just my opinion and my one vote.

...and welcome aboard, Baron Creek.  Never forget your paddle if you hope to navigate the choppy waters hereabouts

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.10  XDm9mm  replied to  r.t..b... @5.1.9    2 months ago
As always, it will be the independents and moderates who will determine the ultimate victor.

And while you might not like it, the Trump rallies are gaining great data which is indicating that generally between 20 and 25% of attendees are actually registered Democrats who note they are very likely to vote Trump.  Another demographic is the Independents who apparently are about 10 to 15% of attendees and they're indicating they will be voting Trump.

You might believe otherwise, but Trump is doing everything possible to unit people.  The Democrats currently in congress and most of the hard core far left radical wing are doing everything in their power to denigrate him and sow division.

While Trump is very likely the farthest thing from being 'politically correct' as any politician or individual can possibly be, his policies have and continue to be great for the people and country.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1.11  author  Baron Creek  replied to  r.t..b... @5.1.9    2 months ago

"Never forget your paddle if you hope to navigate the choppy waters hereabouts"

For clarification purposes, do you mean like an oar? I here the other kind is frowned upon these days. 

 
 
 
r.t..b...
5.1.12  r.t..b...  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.10    2 months ago
You might believe otherwise, but Trump is doing everything possible to unit people.

I certainly do. Not sure how anyone can use 'unity' to describe anything he has done to this point. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1.13  author  Baron Creek  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.10    2 months ago

It is important to remember that the election is decided by the electoral college.

Trump has had 29 campaign rallies thus far. 22 of which were in states that he won in 2016, with 13 of those considered very safe states in 2020. There is a big difference between a red state democrat and blue state democrat, with the same difference applying to republicans and independents. Generally speaking, all three seem to spread across to each extreme.

What would be interesting is seeing how many republicans and independents are attending democratic candidate rallies. In 2016, I do know of some republicans (and conservatives) that supported Sanders, then settled for Trump. If Sanders had been the democratic nominee, I do not know if they would have eventually voted for him over Trump. 

As 40% of voters are independent, I would be concerned with a low figure of 10%~15% turnout. However, it may be in proportion to independents in states Trump has conducted rallies. I really don't know.

It's fun to watch!!

 
 
 
WallyW
5.1.14  WallyW  replied to  r.t..b... @5.1.12    2 months ago

Have you  talked to anyone other than other liberals lately?

The left is losing numbers in every demographic

 
 
 
Ender
5.1.15  Ender  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.10    2 months ago
between 20 and 25% of attendees are actually registered Democrats

The only place that number seems to come from is the donald campaign.

So I tend to not believe it.

donald has been trying to unify?   Hahaha

Calling names and denigrating half the country will sure do that....

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.16  XDm9mm  replied to  Baron Creek @5.1.13    2 months ago
It is important to remember that the election is decided by the electoral college.

I'm most certainly aware of that.   I continually need to remind numerous posters on this forum of that very fact.

Now, don't get me wrong, no one, including me, expects Trump to have sufficient numbers to gain New York, California, or other similar bastions of the liberals and far left.  However, he might be in a position to help some Republicans win a congressional seat, which in turn will be beneficial as it might eliminate Democrat control of the House.

And what the Democrats are loath to admit, Trump is gaining ground among the Black and Latino communities.  He has proved that he will keep the promises made unlike the Democrats who had promised those same things for the last 40 or 50 years with no results.

I do agree, it is most certainly going to be fun watching.  I'm actually having a great time watching the Democrats eviscerate each other denigrating the theories, concepts and ideas of their opponents one minute then espousing them as great when they make the idea their own.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.17  XDm9mm  replied to  Ender @5.1.15    2 months ago
Calling names and denigrating half the country will sure do that....

Need I remind you, Deplorables?

Or just recently by a front runner.....   "I can teach anyone to be a farmer.  Dig a hole, put in a seed, water and corn grows."   I tend to believe he just insulted and alienated the people living in about 100% of the country with that.

 
 
 
Ender
5.1.18  Ender  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.17    2 months ago

The only thing I get out of that is republicans can denigrate people and others cheer,

Clinton says one thing and it is the end of the world.

There was already a discussion and a long thread about how what Bloomberg said was taken out of context, complete with the audio.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.19  XDm9mm  replied to  Ender @5.1.18    2 months ago
Clinton says one thing and it is the end of the world.

That was simply the one that was most obvious.  She had years to perfect her political hatchet jobs, and did it very well.  Hell, she, like most politicians can call someone a bat shit crazy shithead to their face in political speak and the receiver would thank them for the compliment.

There was already a discussion and a long thread about how what Bloomberg said was taken out of context, complete with the audio.

Bloomberg is an elitist of the first order.   And now he's screwed himself yet again.  He's noted that he'll release THREE of the people from their NDA's.  Three?  Why only three?  Trying to dig himself out of the hole Warren and later Biden dug for him, he believes digging yet more is the way to get out.

 
 
 
Ender
5.1.20  Ender  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.19    2 months ago

So because Clinton could be more subtle in her words that was bad. donald telling it like it is is good....

This is starting to sound like either justification or deferment.

donald is the king of NDA's. I am sure you applaud him when people working in our highest office (supposed to be working for us) have to sign them.

It is complete hypocrisy to hold Clinton and Bloomberg to a standard donald does not have to follow.

 
 
 
bbl-1
6  bbl-1    2 months ago

Or This.  Is Putin's campaign to weaken The Western Democracies more effective than reasonable minds dare to admit.

As far as Sanders, he would better serve America if he would simply permit more like minded legislators gain seats in the government while gracefully stepping back and exhorting his base to take 'the long view' for a change.

As far as Trump, 'tell the truth under oath and you're a bad person' amazingly resonates with his base.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
7  author  Baron Creek    one month ago

The thing that puzzles me the most, is how people think Sanders can't win the presidency. It seems to be based on one or two things.

  • Sanders couldn't beat Clinton and Clinton couldn't beat Trump... therefore Sanders cannot beat Trump.
  • Sanders is some kind of communist and the country won't stand for electing someone like him.

The 2nd point seems to infer the American people are rational people. They're not!! We long to think about the "good ole days" when parties would reach across the aisle and wonder why that is no longer possible. Is it possible that all that compromising has resulted in the conditions that many Americans now find as being counter to the American Dream. Thus the more outrageous, the more likely to attract voters. The anit-status quo.

That would support the 1st point, which could help explain the Trump presidency. Trump was not part of the republican establishment and Sanders is not part of the democratic establishment. In 2016, the Sanders movement was crushed and the followers were rebellious against the democratic party. 

As to 2020... Trump, at current pace, will retain Pennyslvania and Wisconsion, while picking up New Hampshire (4). That's 310, but he will lose Michigan (16), Ohio (18) and North Carolina (15). That's 261, if he were to keep Florida... which is always a toss-up. Remember the Electoral votes are what matters, not some national poll.

Unfortunately for the democrats, nominating anyone other than Sanders is a great risk. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
7.1  TᵢG  replied to  Baron Creek @7    one month ago

Sanders will have a hard time beating an incumbent during good economic times.   When people are content with their lives they tend to not make changes in the PotUS.   When the economy is good then tend to keep the presiding PotUS in place.    And being incumbent is almost always an advantage.

I do not see the electorate making a change.   They will ultimately think based on local concerns (family, friends, pocketbook) and will continue to overlook Trumps negatives.

To beat Trump, the candidate must convince the electorate that electing the candidate will not destabilize the good times.   That is going to be a very tough sell.   Bloomberg, IMO, has the best chance to convince them that whatever the electorate thinks the 'brilliant businessman' Trump did that he can do much better.

 
 
 
Split Personality
7.1.1  Split Personality  replied to  TᵢG @7.1    one month ago

The guy taking credit for the stock market has been pretty quiet after three bad days.

Well now he can also claim the "yugest" one day drop in the history of Wall Street.

It's almost as if he believes what he is shoveling...

 
 
 
TᵢG
7.1.2  TᵢG  replied to  Split Personality @7.1.1    one month ago

I think he does believe a lot of his own bullshit.

 
 
 
devangelical
7.1.3  devangelical  replied to  Split Personality @7.1.1    one month ago

he was still gloating about the economy today. apparently FOX news didn't mention the market free fall while he was watching.

 
 
 
pat wilson
7.1.4  pat wilson  replied to  TᵢG @7.1    one month ago
To beat Trump, the candidate must convince the electorate that electing the candidate will not destabilize the good times.   

It will be the economy versus the anxiety the general public feels on a daily basis due to a fecking lunatic at the wheel of our ship of state. If the economy is destabilized it's a crap shoot.

 
 
 
TᵢG
7.1.5  TᵢG  replied to  pat wilson @7.1.4    one month ago

If the economy takes a downturn, the election dynamics change accordingly.   Quite a tall price to pay.   

 
 
 
pat wilson
7.1.6  pat wilson  replied to  TᵢG @7.1.5    one month ago
Quite a tall price to pay.   

Agreed ! It's the last thing we need.

 
 
 
bbl-1
7.1.7  bbl-1  replied to  pat wilson @7.1.4    one month ago

"destabilizing the good times."

What good times?  The Big Market Economy has been doing fine, raking in massive profits and waiting for the right moment to take it all back.  You know, those 401k things. 

Meanwhile, Main Street Economy is watching small businesses closing up and the workforce being consumed in low pay, low benefit jobs.

Good times for who?  Putin maybe as he watches the Americans blame and attack each other while the Trump plays golf on our dime.

Good times my arse. 

 
 
 
bbl-1
7.1.8  bbl-1  replied to  devangelical @7.1.3    one month ago

Aw hell, he's still gloating about the size of his hands and what ever.

Don't matter.  By the way, where is Ivanka?

 
 
 
TᵢG
7.1.9  TᵢG  replied to  bbl-1 @7.1.7    one month ago
Good times my arse. 

Sorry that you feel that way.   Do you hold that people believe they are worse off now than they were 4 years from now?

 
 
 
bbl-1
7.1.10  bbl-1  replied to  TᵢG @7.1.9    one month ago

Some are better off.  Many are not.  Farm bankruptcies are up.  Medical bankruptcies are up.  Manufacturing is down.  The wealth is concentrating at a faster pace. The Middle Class is redefining itself with lower expectations and decreasing value.  Trump has not and can not deliver on his promises because he never understood how to fulfill those promises in the first place.

 
 
 
Split Personality
7.1.11  Split Personality  replied to  bbl-1 @7.1.10    one month ago

He is the reincarnation of PT Barnum.

 
 
 
MUVA
7.1.12  MUVA  replied to  Split Personality @7.1.1    one month ago

How did Trump tank the stock market?

 
 
 
TᵢG
7.1.13  TᵢG  replied to  MUVA @7.1.12    one month ago

The sitting PotUS gets both the credit and the blame for the stock market.   It is irrational for people to think this way, but we know that (as a whole) they do.

Pretty sure SP was making fun of this silly attribution to the office of PotUS since the current occupant has routinely taken credit for dynamics that he could not possibly control.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
7.1.14  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @7.1.13    one month ago

If Trump's popularity takes a hit over the stock market tanking, he will be being "hoisted on his own petard". 

If he demands all the credit for the good, then he has to accept the blame for the bad. You are right about that. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
7.1.15  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @7.1.14    one month ago

Even if he does not accept the blame (of course we know he will not), the electorate will still blame him.

 
 
 
MUVA
7.1.16  MUVA  replied to  TᵢG @7.1.13    one month ago

I'm not sure about that remember it's Obama's economy. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
7.1.17  TᵢG  replied to  MUVA @7.1.16    one month ago

True.   When Trump is gone, this economy (should it survive to another PotUS) will be considered the 'Trump economy' by supporters/partisans but will be considered the economy of the next PotUS (if of another party).

Partisan 'thinking'.

 
 
 
bbl-1
7.2  bbl-1  replied to  Baron Creek @7    one month ago

Democratic risk?  Perhaps not.  Remember this.  Only Putin knows what was discussed at Helsinki.  And the Trump trusts Putin which is extremely unwise.  Putin wishes to create chaos in the US and Western democracies and just might pull the plug on the façade of the Trump.

Not to mention the dozens of other political and personal landmines the Trump sets everywhere for himself.  There seems to be conjecture that the Trump is popular except the true facts are that the Trump is popular only among those who know nothing about him.  Those who know him harbor fear or hatred for the man.  That is his only aura.

 
 
 
Freewill
8  Freewill    one month ago

I don't have much to say about the circus also known as the 2020 election, but I love the Menken quote at the top of the article.

The older I grow the more I distrust the familiar doctrine that age brings wisdom.

It could be that wisdom brings age.  The attainment of wisdom, or at least the attempt at doing so, can wear a person out.  Having experience, knowledge, and good judgement is fricken exhausting.  But I wouldn't know.... I'm just a wise-guy, not so much wise.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
8.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Freewill @8    one month ago

I'm certainly not wise, but am curious as to why most of what I believed in early life has been turned upside down on multiple occasions through my life. I am now at the stage where I find the endless arguments over politics amusing and wonder why I think that way. Why do I like to stir the pot? Just pick up the ladle and stir...

I adjusted the varying states current polls based on the deviation of 2016 pre-election polls against results. I adjusted current polls and came up with this (which was substantial adjustment for Wisconsin, then Minnesota and Iowa, followed by Michigan, then Ohio and Pennsylvania etc.)...

128 The stars indicate path with least resistant to presidency for that candidate. Just looking at it, indicates Biden with the easiest path, but the question remains... how would the Sanders' crowd react, come the general election. If the Democrats really wish to unseat Trump, the question has to be addressed, imo. I say that because some/many think this is strictly a Republican v Democrat battle. I maintain otherwise, as approximately 40% of the voters belong to neither party.   

As to the coronavirus... if a cure were found tomorrow and everyone was administered the cure by next week, the lingering effects of supply disruption, credit market impacts, etc. would require a longer view... such as late 2nd qtr. into the 3rd qtr. The chart above only reflects current polling. 

 
 
 
Freewill
9  Freewill    one month ago

512