Baron Creek

Forecasting the Future!

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Satire  •  one month ago  •  34 comments

Forecasting the Future!
An idealist is one who, on noticing that roses smell better than a cabbage, concludes that it will also make better soup. H. L. Mencken

My new vision has granted me with abilities to see into the future. 

The democratic party will succumb to the powers of the Bernie Bros. despite their objections. The republicans will view this as the ultimate victory party for Trump, of which they will be wrong. The democrats will fear the loss of their majority in the house, of which they will be right. 

The coronavirus will be blamed for tanking the economy and causing Trump's demise. An angry Republican majority in the house will launch endless investigations into collusion between Sanders and the Chinese to tamper with the 2020 election. It will eventually lead to impeachment, but still without enough votes in the Senate to remove him from office.

By then, it will be deep into the 2024 election cycle.

I know this is insane and apologize for even suggesting such an outlandish future. 

Such events could never, ever occur in the great U.S. of A.

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Baron Creek
1  author  Baron Creek    one month ago

My mind wanders into strange places. Should I be tested?

 
 
 
WallyW
1.1  WallyW  replied to  Baron Creek @1    one month ago

My mind wanders into strange places.

I can relate! I think the aging process has a lot to do with it.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
1.1.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  WallyW @1.1    one month ago
I think the aging process has a lot to do with it.

Or too much free time spent on the internet.jrSmiley_26_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
TᵢG
2  TᵢG    one month ago

I see no way that Sanders would win in the general short of an economic collapse or similar tragedy that shocks the electorate and puts fear into their hearts.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  TᵢG @2    one month ago

It was intended as satire, but a serious question for you... 4 years ago (2016), did you see a way for Trump to win?

I did.

 
 
 
TᵢG
2.1.1  TᵢG  replied to  Baron Creek @2.1    one month ago

There were ways for him to win, but the probabilities were low.   Election day was a surprise for most people I think.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  TᵢG @2.1.1    one month ago

At some point, the Democratic Party will need to decide a top priority... defeating Trump or defeating Sanders. While both are possible, the dimming of Sanders hopes must take place this month. Somehow or some way, Warren must throw her hat in the ring with Biden, along with Buttigieg and Bloomberg must do the same. Warren must first "suspend" her campaign, which should happen shortly. You can bet the bidding is already taking place, with Sanders vs. the DNC.

Bloomberg is another problem. He has no chance of winning the nomination, but he could end up being a Kingmaker. So what does he want? AND if by some chance Warren jumps to Biden, then Bloomberg's wishes would wither, imo. V.P., S.of S., SecDef, UN Amb. Who wants what to give in?

 
 
 
TᵢG
2.1.3  TᵢG  replied to  Baron Creek @2.1.2    one month ago
At some point, the Democratic Party will need to decide a top priority... defeating Trump or defeating Sanders.

I think those are one in the same.   Defeating Sanders is a necessary step to defeat Trump.

Bloomberg is another problem. He has no chance of winning the nomination,

I will reserve my judgment until tomorrow evening.

 
 
 
Split Personality
2.1.4  Split Personality  replied to  TᵢG @2.1.3    one month ago
I will reserve my judgment until tomorrow evening.

Good plan...

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.1.5  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Split Personality @2.1.4    one month ago

While you are making that judgment, please observe the delegate count and the 15% rule for districts and statewide.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar have suspended their campaigns and whether it is suspended or ended... their names are on the ballot. States with early voting and absentee ballots that have already been accepted cannot change those votes from Klobuchar/ Buttigieg to Biden. Neither can they tell voters coming in to vote... who is and who is no longer a candidate. It is up to the individual voter to know who is and isn't.

I doubt Buttigieg and Klobuchar would get enough votes to gain any significant delegate count in California, but those votes would take away from Biden, who might otherwise pull near even with Sanders and result in a significant number of delegates above the current expectation.

You can do the delegate math after the smoke has cleared.

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.1.6  Texan1211  replied to  Baron Creek @2.1.5    one month ago

Doesn't Bernie have a 15+ point lead in California?

I see Biden picking up 150-190 delegates there, and Sanders picking up all the rest.

Big win for Bernie, big loss for the Democratic Party.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.1.7  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.6    one month ago

Last poll I saw was Sanders- 38%; Biden at 21% and Warren about 16%. 188-104-78, if voting was uniform across the state. I don't think California awards the state wide delegates until later.

To further my point from a previous post AND all Buttigieg/Klobuchar voters were to vote Biden, it would end up something like 164-141-68.

As said before... we'll see tomorrow night, although I do expect some problems around absentee and mail in votes. 

 
 
 
Ronin2
2.1.8  Ronin2  replied to  Baron Creek @2.1.7    one month ago

You are assuming that Warren will jump ship to Biden; and not go directly to Sanders who she is more politically aligned with. Warren voters will also jump to Sanders. So by the poll Sanders would trounce Biden in CA.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.1.9  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Ronin2 @2.1.8    one month ago
You are assuming that Warren will jump ship to Biden

Where on earth did you come up with that??

 
 
 
Ronin2
2.1.10  Ronin2  replied to  Baron Creek @2.1.9    one month ago
Somehow or some way, Warren must throw her hat in the ring with Biden,

From your comment at 2.1.2.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
2.1.11  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Ronin2 @2.1.10    one month ago

Okay now I gotcha. Thanks for clarifying which of my posts you were responding to. That post is NOT referring to the same issue as presented in 2.1.7., which is about California. I am predicting Warren will have 222 delegates at end of 3/3/20 (see post 5). That would be delegates pledged to Warren and where ever she chooses to align with. Now re-read all of 2.1.2. There are a lot of "ifs". Warren will align to whomever she deems provides her with the best options. Whatever option she chooses does not mean her anticipated future voters will follow along. Some might lean towards Sanders and others towards Biden or Bloomberg at this point.

However, IF the DNC is truly backing Biden or a not-Sanders candidate, then they must ante up something special to Warren... otherwise, as you say, it is possible she would align with Sanders. The bidding is likely in full swing.

 
 
 
Kavika
3  Kavika     one month ago

Never say never when it comes to elections.

Actually I thought that it was the Albanians that conspired with Bernie  in the 2020 election. 

Or it could have been the ''deep state'' otherwise known as Alabama.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
3.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Kavika @3    one month ago

jrSmiley_81_smiley_image.gif

 According to the climate change predictions... Florida might be in the deepest state.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
3.1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Baron Creek @3.1    one month ago

It's okay.  Kavika has a boat.

 
 
 
Ronin2
3.2  Ronin2  replied to  Kavika @3    one month ago

No, it was the Russians. Same as this time around.

Of course Bernie has enough of a D behind his name that his past connections to the Russians will be ignored.

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
4  Just Jim NC TttH    one month ago

You should consider writing for  BabylonBee............

jrSmiley_13_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Baron Creek
4.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4    one month ago

I already be babbling!jrSmiley_90_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5  author  Baron Creek    one month ago

I originally meant this article as satire, but I might as well look at the old chrystal ball for real and make this (b)old prediction.

Delegate math after tomorrow:

  • Sanders: 617
  • Biden: 462
  • Warren: 222
  • Bloomberg: 132
  • Buttigieg/Klobuchar: 33 each

Feel free to critique, but at least have the gumption to put forth some numbers of your own. 

P.S. I really need to find something worthwhile to do with my free time!jrSmiley_11_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Baron Creek @5    one month ago

From what I hearing, those numbers are way off.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
5.1.1  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Baron Creek @5.1    one month ago

Yep, they sure are.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @5.1.1    one month ago

Still about 400 delegates to be assigned, but Warren is seriously underperforming as well as Bloomberg. I'll post the final stats and analysis when the numbers become clearer.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1.3  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Baron Creek @5.1.2    one month ago

Okay, the wait will likely last over the weekend. Biden started the week down 8 delegates and when yesterday's results are finally tabulated he will be up about 25 delegates. Rough estimate is Biden 669 and Sanders at 647. Like I said we won't know until all of California is counted. With Bloomberg and Wallace hovering at the magic 15%, all of those ballots, absentee and otherwise must be counted. 

While that doesn't quite sound like the resounding thump, thump I originally heard... it is quite remarkable and he certainly has won the news cycle going into next Tuesday, where he should get a solid majority and start pulling away... ever so slightly.

The chances of a contested convention were eased quite a bit, but Biden must not slip up down the road. The margin for error is slim.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
5.1.4  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Baron Creek @5.1.3    one month ago

I'll bet the powers that be will screw Bernie again.  It will be Trump vs Biden, and I'm putting my money on Trump.  

 
 
 
TᵢG
5.1.5  TᵢG  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @5.1.4    one month ago

That is my analysis as well (given current conditions).   Biden will be the nominee and will lose to Trump.   The single biggest factors that could change this are:  a) major funding from Bloomberg in support of Biden or  b) a failure in the US economy.   The VP choice might make a significant difference.

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
5.1.6  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  TᵢG @5.1.5    one month ago

I agree with you on all points.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5.1.7  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Buzz of the Orient @5.1.4    one month ago

I'm not sure Bernie is getting screwed by the powers that be, but they did finally wake up to the urgency. While dangerously close to too late... not just yet. My guess is Sanders won't drop out of the race until that magical statistical number is matched by Biden, which would be sometime in April or early May. 

The issue would be how Sanders's supporters react. A lot of that depends on Biden and his supporters, imo. It is one thing to question Sander's politics, but very damaging to denigrate Sanders supporters... then wonder why they stay home in droves.

BTW, is there a duct tape shortage? If not would someone please use a roll on Hillary's mouth!

After all that, the key could very well be V.P. Biden has high profile candidates, but the selection should be based on not only maintaining 2016 blue states (227), but winning back the recently turned red and biting into some possible states. I think MIchigan (16) can be won back, Ohio (18) flipped back to blue and Florida (29)... 290. That is not an insurmountable task, imo. If you buy into the premise the Bernie Bros laid down in 2016, then it might be good to reflect and play nice, also in my opinion.

It's hard to tell where and who the enemy is, when in a crossfire. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
5.1.8  TᵢG  replied to  Baron Creek @5.1.7    one month ago

I suspect Sanders is in this until the last possible moment of viability.   Sanders endorsed Clinton in July.  

 
 
 
Buzz of the Orient
5.1.9  Buzz of the Orient  replied to  TᵢG @5.1.8    one month ago

If the Democrats win, to reward him for his loyalty, they could make him Ambassador to Russia, Iran or Gaza.  They probably already have Rashida Tlaib earmarked for Ramallah.

 
 
 
JBB
6  JBB    one month ago

At least according to the Bible being proven to be a false prophet is the worst sin or crime there is and deserving of the most horrible punishments imaginable. Oops!