Baron Creek

CPI and other C’s

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  8 months ago  •  22 comments

CPI and other C’s
A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella in fair weather and ask for it back when it begins to rain. – (Origin unknown, although often attributed to Twain, Frost, Bierce, etc.)

CPI

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent  in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics  reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 1.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The CPI-W increased 1.6% yoy, the c-cpi-u advanced 1.3% yoy and the r-cpi-e moved up 1.4% yoy. My own index moved up 1.6% yoy. It should be no surprise… FOOD.

CDC

The CDC listing of provisional deaths for 2020 is now 16.93% (2-9-2021 report) over original estimates or 490,150 more than anticipated. 379,714 are categorized as Covid-19 deaths, which is above nearly all tracking groups. This is still provisional and NOT final.

Vaccinations are progressing as indicated by this graph (2-10-2021 report).

512

Overall vaccinations are trending up, but the 2 nd dose rate is where the action is. Current 7-day rates indicate 70% of the public would get fully vaccinated between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Clearly the pace needs to pick up as there is some concern about longevity of current 2 dose vaccinations and the potential for a 3 rd dose being needed at the 8-month mark. (Pfizer)

Closer to home, the nursing home deaths have dropped dramatically, but the overall deaths seem to have increased, with the 60+ accounting for 92%, which is steady, although the 80+ is declining. The >60 to <80 groups are picking up the slack. Having made that statement, I should note that the deaths to infection rate is rising rapidly in these groups, as overall infections are falling. My state is about 75% above this period last month… in deaths. Is it vaccine availability, scheduling… or contrariness?

Comedy…

What does it say about my wife and I, that we find a crime/drama/mystery named The Prodigal Son as being kinda funny? We thought that before the vaccinations, so it isn’t a side effect.

Article is LOCKED by author/seeder
 

Tags

jrBlog - desc
[]
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
1  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

The ice storm has arrived. Here's hoping it does not take down any transmission lines. 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
2  JohnRussell    8 months ago

They say (today) that everyone in America may be able to get the vaccine by July. There's going to be some long waits for an appointment at the CVS's and Walgreens. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
2.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  JohnRussell @2    8 months ago
They say (today) that everyone in America may be able to get the vaccine by July. There's going to be some long waits for an appointment at the CVS's and Walgreens. 

True, but 100 million each from Pfizer and Moderna was already purchased and targeted for end of 1st quarter, with another 100 million doses each, by end of May. That's a distribution rate of over 2.7m single doses per day, from current date to achieve April target. The May target requires over 3M+ from today's date. The latest purchase was 100 million each by end of July and requires 3.1m, from today's date to achieve the end of July target.

Not saying it isn't doable, but it is a mighty steep hill to climb, imo. It is a less steeper hill to climb to say there would be doses available for all that want the vaccine. As the number of deaths, hospitizations, etc. decrease... the resistance to being vaccinated could rise, imo. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
3  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

The downward trend in 1st doses is likely to continue as there is a shortage of vaccines to fulfill current 2nd dose requirements. The rate of vaccines being delivered must double very shortly, imo. At current distribution rates, the initial dose will trend downward to the 600k daily mark, to maintain 2nd dose requirements of 3 weeks for Pfizer and 4 weeks for Moderna. I anticipate 2nd dosing timing might increase as a result. The CDC does state if the recommended interval is not feasible, delays up to 6 weeks after intitial dose may be possible. Per CDC ...

The second dose should be administered as close to the recommended interval as possible. However, if it is not feasible to adhere to the recommended interval and a delay in vaccination is unavoidable, the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines may be administered up to 6 weeks (42 days) after the first dose.

512

Even that delay would not resolve the issue of slow distribution. 

Distribution rates need to hit 3.17M doses starting tomorrow to achieve targets. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
4  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Provisional: "arranged or existing for the present, possibly to be changed later."

In early January, the CDC released a provisional death count for 2020. It clearly stated there was several weeks of data remaining, as states and local entities pushed the data to the CDC.

However, that provisional data suggested 318,000 deaths from covid at that point in time and based on the available data (provisional). As several other sources had indicated a death toll ranging from 338K to 354K, it was immediately jumped on as proof of over reporting the magnitude of deaths from Covid, as the terms provisional, qualifiers, etc. were omitted from these nefarious websites.

So it is now 2-15-2021 and the term provisional still applies to the CDC data, which now has 380K+ deaths from Covid for 2020. The overall death rate has exceeded expectations by nearly 500K (17%+). 

It will be some time before the provisional becomes official, but a lot of those charges of "over-reporting of covid deaths" previously heard, can or should now be laid to rest. It's bad.

I did attempt to discover the origin of some of these assertions and concluded this... 1/2 of persons in any profession makeup the bottom 50% of that profession. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
5  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

The vaccine distribution is being hampered by recent storms, but blaming it all on the storms is akin to blaming all of Texas power problems on frozen turbines. Neither is accurate and far from the reality.

As to vaccines, it was already struggling to ramp up and it clearly doesn't need any weather related hiccups, imo. 

800

Vaccination distribution needs to double and I am not hearing of any grand plans other than promises. Manufacturing seems to be holding the key, imo, and progress reporting by the media might serve us all a bit better, rather than simply taking everyone's word at face value. 

In the meantime, I will just keep tracking and watching the required averages keep moving upward as the daily vaccine distribution rate falls short. 

I have previously stated the more likely date of 70% herd immunity via vaccinations will be near year end. Season's Greetings!

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
6  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Another day... another update...

The 7 day average of distributed vaccines have taken a dramatic hit. 2nd dose vaccine administration will be required to average above 1M over the next 21~28 days. The distribution rates indicate the 1st dose administration will fall to the 500K daily range. 

It doesn't take much understanding to realize that 2M doses per day distribution is an immediate requirement, just to meet the 2nd dose requirements and maintain current 1st dose administration.

800

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
7  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Not much to add from previous days graph, except this is today's...

800

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
8  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Major jump in vaccination distribution (4.775m) recorded on 2-19. It was the largest daily since 1-20 (4.289). Not sure if that was part of the 6m doses being delayed due to weather or if so... how much. My personal opinion and estimate is the distribution is still about -7m doses behind and needs to hit the 2m daily average by end of next week. 

Originally the pressure was on the states to vaccinate and there was concern they could meet the challenge. It was such a daunting and herculean task of great complexity.  

The concern was such that doubts were cast on the states' abilities, as seen by drug company spokespeople and their lackeys, saying they could easily keep up with the states and the bottleneck would certainly be at the state level.

Guess what?.. the states have responded and were being forced to halt vaccinations prior to weather issues... due to lack of vaccine.

Now the drug companies are on the defense, hence the plethora of drug company spokespeople and their lackeys... attempting to explain the herculean task of great complexity that is being undertaken.

512  

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
8.1  author  Baron Creek  replied to  Baron Creek @8    8 months ago

Big mistake somewhere. Thursday's report indicated 73,377,450 doses distributed; Friday's report indicated 78,152,495 does distributed, Early Saturday's report indicated 79,128,495 doses distributed. Then I was alerted to another change, which has the distributed doses now down to 74,979,165. 

I will have to dig around and try to understand what is correct and why. All other data remains same. 

 
 
 
JBB
Professor Principal
8.1.1  JBB  replied to  Baron Creek @8.1    8 months ago

They were probably going by projections that were thrown off by the weather. All across the nation scheduled vaccinations have been delayed because both providers and patients have been unable to get to and from distribution sites. Also, the distribution of the vaccine has been delayed in many cases also because of the weather. 

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
8.1.2  author  Baron Creek  replied to  JBB @8.1.1    8 months ago

It's possible, but the previous 7 days was running about 750k per day, so the anomaly seems to be the 4.7m number on a Friday, which has been running about 800K. Most of the vaccines seem to get in the count as distributed on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, then Friday volume... tapering off until the following Tuesday. This past week indicates the T-TH cycle was light about 6M, which would account for the news reportage, imo.

I'll keep digging.

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
9  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

If I believe the news and I really want to... the 6 million delayed doses are now on the move, in addition to the planned 13.5M doses for this week. Should see a better looking graph over the next few days. More and more places are halting 1st dose appointments in favor of fulfilling 2nd dose. Again, if the news holds up... this should alleviate a lot of this in the short term. 

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
10  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Banner day with 6.9M doses delivered. This is still below the 11.5M (-1M) promised for the previous week. 13.5M are promised this week, which is the high rate of doses administered prior to additional sites added. Both Pfizer and Moderna combined have promised 140M doses over the next 5 weeks (per CBS news). That would be a daily average of 4M. The blue line is the one to watch. It would match the expectations and agreements and would also ease concerns about the end of May and July delivery dates, imo. At some point Johnson and Johnson may also be approved as a one dose vaccine. 

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
11  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Another day of 6M+ doses reported as being delivered by the CDC. It may take a couple of days for this to work through the vaccination process. 1st Dose had been somewhat stymied, as 2nd dose vaccinations had surpassed the 1st dose vaccinations the past 4 days. This should be eased considerably as vaccine centers ramp up and the word gets out. 1.7m vaccinations should be quickly possible as this was the figure from 10 days ago. 

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
12  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Another 3m dose delivery day. Vaccinations have nearly doubled in the past 2 days, although 2nd dose still outnumbers the 1st dose vaccinations. A dramatic shift upward should be seen over the coming few days and can continue the upward trajectory... provided promised deliveries are met. Hopefully, I can stop tracking... provided it becomes clear the originally promised 200m doses by end of 1st Qtr. can be accomplished. 240M have been promised by that time, which includes J&J.

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
13  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Another good day of distribution at 2.6M doses. 2.2M vaccinations were recorded, which is near the high of a couple of weeks back. It appears the ramp-up is in full swing. Have to keep watch on the distributions even though they are nearing 2.9M per day on the 7-day average. 6M doses were delayed as part of the weather can be seen in the graph. Both FedEx and UPS have stated they expect a 40% increase in distribution next week. 512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
14  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Doses reported administered hit a single day high of 2.35M, with both 1st and 2nd doses topping the 1M mark for the 2nd day in a row. An additional 2.1M doses were distributed. The old folks gossip network reports the lines are long, so be prepared to stand in line for a bit, as the process becomes more streamlined. 

I will have to revise my tracking to incorporate the J&J vaccine. I will figure that out when it comes time... I guess.

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
15  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Vaccinations continue to ramp up significantly compared to 1 week ago. It would not be unreasonable to expect the 1st dose line to move near 1.5M by end of week, with 2nd dose about 1M with total doses 2.5M+. The more the better, imo.

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
16  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
17  author  Baron Creek    8 months ago

Distribution is increasing and is now averaging above 2.8M per day (7). Vaccinations are averaging 2M 7-day. Not seeing any information on CDC site regarding JNJ, but likely should see results in the next few days. 1st dose topped 1.5M for the first time. 2nd dose fell back consistent with 1st dose number of 3 weeks prior and should move above 1M... this time next week.

512

 
 
 
Baron Creek
Junior Participates
18  author  Baron Creek    7 months ago

Vaccinations are on a steep trajectory with one day report of nearly 2.9M and 7-day at 2.14M. Current rate would see 100% by October, but that includes under 18. Considering the over 16 population and the "hesitancy" factor, the drop off of vaccinations in late May is highly possible (based on 55% acceptance). So may as well follow the drug makers trials of possible additional doses for each and every year.

512