Baron Creek

Transitory?

  
By:  Baron Creek  •  Nonsense and Ramblings  •  4 months ago  •  1 comments

Transitory?
I continue to believe that the American people have a love-hate relationship with inflation. They hate inflation but love everything that causes it. - William E. Simon

It is looking more like this spate of inflation is transitory, imo. Probably not a popular notion, but the evidence is all over yesterday's CPI release

Let's not forget that the CPI fell in the opening months of the covid outbreak, so this month's "annual" is based where the CPI had cratered and then paused. An example... prior to covid, gasoline prices had jumped 12% during 2019 and fell off the table in spring 2020. Compared to 1-2020 report, gasoline has jumped at an annual rate of 11.7%. For the record... U.S. gasoline pricing was 12¢ lower in May of 2019, than recorded in May of 2021 per EIA.gov .

On the opposite side and you might not believe this... but food yoy was up 2.2% on this report, but last year was food hoarding time. Food jumped at an annualized rate of 6.5% from 1-2020 thru 4-2020. Food AT home jumped 14% during that period. The problem with the food category is it does not seem to be dropping back as anticipated. 

The overall story is about cars, gasoline, insurance on vehicles, etc. Oh and airline fares. I would anticipate the upward rise to taper near August and later... as it has in the past. 

As I don't drive that much and certainly don't plan on flying anywhere, here is my inflation...

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My CPI is 3.05% (I am not so happy about the past 5 months, however); CPI-U is 5.0%; C-CPI-U is 5.0%; CPI-W is 5.6%; R-CPI-E is 4.4%.

Vaccinations...

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A slight uptick in the 7-day, although it is clearly being driven by the 12~17 age group. The adult rate is far below what is needed to achieve the 70% of adults with at least one vaccination by 7-4. 

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1  author  Baron Creek    4 months ago

I thought I should throw in the food at home index dating back to January, 2019.

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