Even big oil admits that electric vehicles are the wave of the future !
Yup . Shell Oil has gone on record as projecting the widespread use of e-cars &/or hydrogen vehicles .
Link
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/10/13/shell-makes-a-compelling-case-for-tesla-motors.aspx
As you can see by the following chart , they are projecting that future e-cars will be the majority of cars on the road by 2060 ... less than 50 years from now .
So the next question is which will dominate : electrics or hydrogen vehicles ?
To answer that question let's consult Elon Musk , the CEO of Tesla motors [only slightly biased on the subject ! /jk]
source :
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/musk-scorns-hydrogen-vehicles-seen-as-tesla-credit-threat.html
Musk Scorns Hydrogen Vehicles Seen as Tesla Credit Threat
By Alan Ohnsman - Oct 23, 2013 11:01 PM ET
Elon Musk, the outspoken co-founder of electric-car maker Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA), is turning his sharp tongue toward a new target: hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles.
He argues that such cars are currently rare and expensive, with few locations to refuel. And while the vehicles, such as those being developed by Toyota Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. (005380), emit only water vapor, the hydrogen fuel can be expensive and dirty to produce.
Theres no way for it to be a workable technology, Tesla's chief executive officer said this week in Munich.
Behind Musks protestations is the fact that his Tesla competes for resources with hydrogen cars, in the form of government subsidies for rebates, fueling infrastructure and lucrative green-car credits that have made the company profitable this year. Hes badmouthing the rival technology especially loudly now, as California is poised today to reduce his ability to generate credits in the future.
The regulatory review and a wave of hydrogen-fueled models anticipated by 2015 are reigniting a decade-long rivalry in California between battery-car backers and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle partisans.
Automakers including Toyota and General Motors Co. (GM) have long held out hydrogen fuel cells as the ultimate way to drive: pollution-free, powerful and able to go for hundreds of miles.
Very Compelling
On the vehicle side, these are very compelling, said John German, program director with the International Council on Clean Transportation environmental policy group, and a former Honda Motor Co. (7267) engineer. They have the range and refuel time of regular vehicles, and the quick acceleration of electric-drive systems that people like, he said.
While clean production and adequate distribution of hydrogen may take decades to develop, California regulators view both plug-in electric and fuel-cell vehicles as solutions to persistent air-quality problems.
The EV activists have been quieter in recent years, said Dan Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California at Davis and a member of the states Air Resources Board. I hope they have come to appreciate that this is not a winner-take-all competition, and that we require a portfolio of solutions.
California Rules
The board, which since the 1970s has prodded automakers to sell cleaner cars and trucks, is poised today to decide on changes to its Zero-Emission Vehicle, or ZEV, mandate. Those include eliminating battery-pack swapping as a way to meet a fast refueling requirement that lets Teslas premium sedan rack up as many as seven credits for each 85-kilowatt-hour battery version of the car sold in California.
Automakers can trade credits among themselves; they dont disclose the prices paid or received.
Tesla, the electric-car maker led by Musk, had its first quarterly profits this year with a boost from selling California pollution credits. State officials are weighing revisions that cut maximum credits Tesla gets for its Model S by 43 percent while lifting them for hydrogen cars.
If the mandate is truly technology neutral, they will not differentiate between hydrogen fuel cell and battery swap to meet fast refueling, Diarmuid OConnell, vice president of business development for Tesla, said in a phone interview. We dont want to see the board reverse course, and weaken or soften requirements and the goals of the mandate.
Credit Sales
Tesla is the top seller of California ZEV credits, according to an ARB tally released this month. Such sales generated $119 million for the Palo Alto, California-based company in the first half, accounting for 12 percent of total revenue, based on company filings.
Musk said fuel cells are too complex, too costly and not clean enough, since most hydrogen is generated from natural gas.
Automakers backing hydrogen dont really believe this; its like a marketing thing, Musk said this week at a Tesla store event in Munich, Germany.
If you took the best case in that, it doesnt even equal the current state of the art in lithium-ion batteries, Musk said.
His comments were reported earlier by Wired.com.
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2013/10/elon-musk-hydrogen/all
The lack of fueling stations for hydrogen is also a drawback, he said.
Putting up a huge hydrogen distribution is also extremely difficult, Musk said. Hydrogen is also quite a dangerous gas. Its also suitable for the upper stage of rockets, but not cars.
Speaks Bluntly
In an era of buttoned-down CEOs, Musk speaks bluntly about threats to Tesla. When the New York Times reported that a Model S left a driver stranded in the cold, he called the story a fake in a post on Twitter.
A Model S with Teslas largest battery pack able to go at least 300 miles (483 kilometers) qualifies for as many as seven ZEV credits under California rules, because the car has the ability to have its battery pack swapped in less than a minute with a fully charged unit.
While Musk demonstrated this in June at Teslas design center in Hawthorne, California, the carmakers battery swap stations havent yet opened so drivers of the Model S, priced from $70,000 to more than $100,000, cant use this option.
Not Available
The issue here is the regulation as we have it, says fast-refueling is a capacity that needs to be available on the car, said Dave Clegern, a spokesman for the air resources board. Thats not yet the case with battery swap since its not available at this time.
Should the board decide that battery swapping no longer qualifies as a means of rapidly refueling a Model S, the car would earn for a maximum of four credits starting in the 2015 model year. Fuel cell vehicles will rise to as many as nine credits, from seven credits, starting with 2015 models to encourage manufacturers to get more of those vehicles to market.
Automakers for years have advocated hydrogen as an ideal long-term alternative to gasoline owing to the abundance of the chemical element and its ability to power mid-size and larger vehicles with range to match petroleum-burning models. Refueling fuel cell autos from a high pressure pump takes three to five minutes, and is comparable to gasoline cars.
Drawbacks include the high cost of fuel-cell stacks, which combine hydrogen gas and oxygen to make electricity for propulsion, and the bulky size and expense of the carbon-fiber fuel tanks they require. While automakers estimate hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cost $1 million or more to build in 2005, companies including Toyota (7203) say they should fall to about $50,000 by 2015.
Hydrogen Push
Toyota this month showed off a prototype of the small hydrogen sedan it will sell in California from 2015, and will unveil the production version next month at the Tokyo Motor Show. Honda, Hyundai and Daimler AG (DAI)s Mercedes-Benz are also planning to sell their own fuel cell vehicles in the state and in their home markets from 2015.
Fuel-cell cars share many components and technologies with battery-electric vehicles, such as Teslas Model S or Nissan Motor Co. (7201)s Leaf hatchback. The main difference is that in a fuel cell car, hydrogen gas passes through a stack of plastic membranes and metal plates to produce the electricity.
While critics are right about hydrogens challenges, they can be overcome, Koei Saga, Toyotas director and senior managing officer for research and development, told reporters this month.
There are energy efficiency, CO2 issues that have to be solved if fuel-cell vehicles are to penetrate the mainstream, Saga told reporters at a briefing in Toyota City. We are working on them.
Readying hydrogen vehicles is also a kind of insurance policy for the future, given the volatility of energy supplies globally, said Satoshi Ogiso, Toyotas engineer leading development of its hydrogen, hybrid and plug-in hybrid autos.
At this moment, crude oil, gasoline, diesel, the balance of supply and demand is rather stable, he said. A next energy crisis may come, so we should have some options and more energy diversity.
To contact the reporter on this story: Alan Ohnsman in Los Angeles at aohnsman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jamie Butters at jbutters@bloomberg.net
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
What I find interesting about this story is that Tesla's profits are dependent on receiving "California ZEV credits". [See above] . So it is due to a California tax credit that Tesla Motors is doing so well . Also above is the fact that could change . Still some of Musk's comments are on point . All I can say is that things are in flux ...
Tags
Who is online
93 visitors
That's a good reason why they will do whatever they can to bleed you dry until that happens.
Well ... I don't agree with that . In fact , there seems to be quite a lot of evidence that gas prices have been artificially boosted for many months by the EPA , not by the oil companies . See the info about "Renewable Identification Numbers" here .
Yeah, you have a point there. However, I read that the intended increase in ethenol content was going to totally fuck up the engines of most existing cars.
You're making this too easy . I wrote that article here :
AHA!!! So THAT'S where I read it.
Let's hear from the other side in the debate ... which type of electric car will win in the future ?
Toyota is planning on coming out with a fuel cell car to sell for $50 thousand a pop . Read more here :
My own opinion is that pure electrics will win in the short run . In the longer run hydrogen fuel cell cars could easily win out but the difficulty of building hydrogen refueling infrastructure might slow things down quite a lot .
Know why? Because a lot of coal-fired power plants are going to convert to oil-fired power plants. We'll be paying more, and demanding more electricity, and they won't have the expense of delivering it to gas stations, or dealing with the environmental regs on gas stations. Instead, they will use existing electric grids to deliver their product.
Makes sense. They save $ in not refining or producing gasoline, and still get paid for the oil.
Don't know about the future, but I sure would like a Tesla S if any of you all have a spare hanging around!
:~)
Nice car ! . Can't you wait for the model X coming out soon ? Its a lot cheaper ...
So ... that's your only reason ?
That's an interesting theory Dowser . Oil companies are also finding a lot of natural gas .
The entire concept of the e-car is based on the flexibility of the original fuel source . As a result there is no need for a power station to convert away from coal [for example] . They can get their energy from a number of different sources including oil , natural gas , and renewables .
What did you think about the time frame ? 45 years or so till there are a majority of e-cars ... is that an excessive delay ?
It's just an idea. I think 45 years is a long time, personally, but I don't think the technology exists today to do this. But, yeah, I see why the oil companies would support a switch. We're demanding more and more electricity, and we're going to be burning oil or natural gas, either one. It wasn't really all that hard to convert the diesel engines of the drilling rig to propane burners, so it shouldn't be that hard to convert plants from oil to natural gas.I'm sure my friends in the energy industry are laughing at this post!
And I do think that coal is on the way out. Good in so many ways, but bad for the jobs in my state. We need to educate further and diversify our work force. Yeah, that will work... Not.
Well ... it does exist today , just at a high price . It is coming down though . Tesla has 2 generations already on the market & they are soon to produce their 3rd & cheapest car model . Also there are lesser e-cars on the market including the Mitsubishi i-miev and the Nissan leaf .
I think what will really make these cars take off is batteries that hold more charge but at a cheaper price & lighter weight . That would really affect the market acceptance . And here is one way to build your own e-car : [video ]
The cost [in 2015] is projected to be about 6000 euros . This is more of a dune buggy than a car but it looks like fun !
Ah man, is it ever! It didn't just get glowing reviews, but rave reviews. The more I read about Tesla's autos the more convinced I am that this is the wave of the future. Damn nice auto and I can't wait until this technology becomes the standard.
The model X looks and sounds wonderful. Imho, the next generation will look back on gasoline powered vehicles as an odd but charming anachronism.
Oops ... looks like I had the models wrong . The X is a crossover style vehicle like an advanced SUV .The cheaper model is the model E going for about $30 K each .
Because ?
Bah humbug ?
10 Reasons Your Next Car May Be Electric
Hydrogen car news :
The Top Gear episode "Fully Charged" (you can watch by logging in, they just need your provider)features a Tesla Model S at the end of the program. Outstanding performance and economy. Watch the Tesla rip the large motor Camaro on the 1/4 mile, and beat the Mercedes on the track. I have to admit, I was blown away! There is no doubt that the future is here, and it is electric.
:~)
Yes , the future of transport is electric ... but will it be straight electric like the Tesla or a fuel cell vehicle [FCV] like what Toyota is planning for 2015 ?
Cute flashlight.
Well my hope is that R&D will continue to push any and all boundries in exploration of more efficiency. Imho, it will be straight electric at first because of the Infrastructure issues with FCV's. But hey, who knows? Maybe someone will invent the CCCV (Corn Cob Cell Vehicle) and we'll go in a different direction altogether!
:~)
I was considering an article examining those 2 alternatives ... but there doesn't seem to be much interest . Perhaps if I came up with an inflammatory headline ?!
In today's NT'ers climate, I think that something like "Tesla, even with black paint, is still the vehicle of the privedged white".
This is a good concept BUT you can't use it at night ... If your lady friend is not into afternoon delights that is a big drawback in the marketing scheme .
Not bad ... or maybe " reeeealy bad" .
It looks like a solar powered dildo.
I have a solar powered pocket calculator with metric conversion that I've had for about 20 years. I wonder how many batteries I would have had to buy if were not solar powered.
The ultimate would be an engine that runs on pee. Now THAT would be an environmental breakthrough.
I think I may have read about something working that way ... But how much pee can a family produce ?
I guess it depends on how much beer they drink. Where I am the beer is much cheaper than gasoline.
Low alcohol beer I'm guessing ...
Coca cola has more of a kick and in fact costs more, even though it's bottled here.
Well , they must have to pay for Coke's secret formula additive ... And low alcohol beer results in low octane pee .