North Korea’s Simple But Deadly Artillery Holds Seoul And U.S. Hostage

kavika
By:  @kavika, 8 months ago
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North Korea’s Simple But Deadly Artillery Holds Seoul And U.S. Hostage


“These perfectly positioned offensive artillery firing positions are virtually impenetrable, extremely difficult to take out by counterfire.”







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Bloomberg via Getty Images

This photograph taken with a tilt-shift lens shows Seoul, South Korea, on July 16, 2015.







Burrowed into hard granite mountain faces and protected behind blast doors, 15,000 North Korean cannons and rocket launchers are aimed at the glass skyscrapers, traffic-choked highways and blocks of apartment buildings 35 miles away in Seoul ― and the U.S. military bases beyond.



In a matter of minutes, these heavy, low-tech weapons could begin the destruction of the South Korean capital with blizzards of glass shards, collapsed buildings and massive casualties that would decimate this vibrant U.S. ally and send shock waves through the global economy.



Unlike the undefended Syrian airfield struck by U.S. tomahawk missiles or the Afghan caves destroyed this month by the largest non-nuclear bomb ever used by the U.S. military, U.S. air attacks can’t quickly or easily destroy North Korean guns.



This is why North Korea has shrugged off U.S. threats to end the country’s nuclear weapons program, or answered them with oddly bellicose language from its supreme leader, Kim Jong-Un. The most immediate risk is not that North Korea might launch a nuclear-tipped missile. Instead, it’s a hostage situation: In effect, Kim is daring President Donald Trump to attack while holding a gun to the head of South Korea.



Even a short burst of artillery shells could set off a panic in Seoul, a metropolitan area populated with 25 million people. The city has barriers that would make evacuation a nightmare: It’s intersected by the Han River and bordered by mountains to the south and west.



That hard reality is why Trump is quietly turning aside from bluster and taunts ― “North Korea is a problemthe problem will be taken care of,” he vowed last week ― and posturing with an aircraft carrier strike group. (That strike group, however, actually initially set out in the opposite direction from North Korea.)



Instead, Trump is exploring diplomacy, just as presidents before him have done. That means backing down from criticizing China and asking for help. As national security adviser H.R. McMaster acknowledged Sundaythe U.S. will “have to rely on Chinese leadership” to deal with North Korea.



So far, at least, the embedded North Korean artillery has effectively blocked any overt military action to halt Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.



“These perfectly positioned offensive artillery firing positions are virtually impenetrable, extremely difficult to take out by counterfire,” said retired Army Maj. Gen. Robert H. Scales. “The terrain greatly favors the North, this arc of south-facing granite mountainsides just over the [Demilitarized Zone], in a position to pummel Seoul for weeks on end.” This leaves South Korea and the U.S. “with very little real capability to respond.”



Scales, decorated for combat valor during the Vietnam War, later served in Korea as a battalion commander and ultimately as an assistant commander of the 2nd Infantry Division. A frontal assault on the Korean guns by ground forces could be suicidal, he said. “You look at that terrain with a soldier’s eye, and … ‘holy shit!’” he told The Huffington Post. 


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STR via Getty Images

This undated picture released from North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on April 14 shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un (center) inspecting the “Dropping and Target-striking Contest of KPA Special Operation Forces - 2017” at an undisclosed location in North Korea. He has overseen a special forces commando operation, state media said on April 13, as tensions soar with Washington over Pyongyang’s nuclear program.

The North Koreans “pose a threat today, with their hundreds of thousands of rockets within rocket range of Seoul, to the 28,500 American troops that are posted there, their families, the hundreds of thousands of Americans who work in Korea, and our Korean ally and Japan,” Adm. Harold B. Harris, the senior U.S. military commander in the Pacific, told the Senate Armed Services Committee last year.



It’s not known whether any of those guns are fitted with shells containing chemical or biological agents. But Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti, formerly the top U.S. commander in South Korea, told the committee last year that “they have probably one of the largest chemical and bio stockpiles ― chemical, in particular, but bio capability ― around the world.”



It is true, as critics point out, that many of these North Korean guns are old, obsolete and lack sophisticated fire control systems. But artillery, unlike jet fighters or tanks, can be kept operational with relatively little maintenance. And the relatively new 300-millimeter rocket launchers can simultaneously fire 12 rockets with high explosive, incendiary or chemical warheads to targets over 100 miles away.



“North Korea is powerless to prevent a U.S. strike on its nuclear program, but retaliation is well within its means,” according to a new report by Stratfor, a geopolitical strategic forecasting firm.



A single volley from the North Korean artillery, the report said, “could deliver more than 350 metric tons of explosives across the South Korean capital, roughly the same amount of ordnance dropped by 11 B-52 bombers.”



Vice President Mike Pence visited the DMZ on the border between North and South Korea this week, scowling in the direction of the mountains to the north and warning that American “strategic patience is over.” Pence agreed to hasten the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile defenses in South Korea, which are capable of intercepting ballistic missiles launched from the north. The anti-missile system, currently under construction, is due to be completed shortly anyway.



But the THAAD system is useless against the North Korean artillery, which fires shells difficult to intercept because of their smaller size and lower altitude than ballistic missiles. And even air attacks would be difficult. The North Korean artillery emplacements are concentrated in a narrow line roughly 45 miles wide. U.S. strike jets would have to operate inside this narrow “kill box” while dodging anti-aircraft and missile fire. The North Korean artillery positions are fitted with blast doors that open briefly for firing and then close while the weapon is reloaded, further narrowing the opportunity for an effective air strike.



That’s a demanding mission, far more difficult than the unopposed strike missions over Iraq and Afghanistan attacking undefended targets in open terrain.



North Korean anti-aircraft weapons “are not all that impressive,” Scales said, “but there’s lots of them.” Could the North Korea guns be taken down? “Sure, over time,” he said. “But by the time we do that, the damage they’d inflict on Seoul would just be staggering.”




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Kavika
link   Kavika     8 months ago

Old tech, but deadly.

 
 
TTGA
link   TTGA    8 months ago

Very deadly, if you approach it from a conventional standpoint.  I see three solutions other than just dealing with the NK Army and letting Seoul take its chances. 

First, unpleasant but workable, is to use pinpoint strikes from medium power nuclear weapons on the emplacements.  I don't think blast doors can stand up against that, but it does bring up several other problems such as escalation and fallout.

Second, the MOAB actually has a different version that burrows under the emplacement and creates a hollow space under it when exploded.  Blast doors don't do much good when the floor falls our from under you.  This may seem untested and far out, but actually has been used in warfare way back in 1944.  Invented by Barnes Wallis for the British government, they weigh 20,000 pounds and carry delayed action fuses to allow them to penetrate under the target 150-200 feet.  The explosion then cavitates the area under the emplacement and causes it to fall into the hole.  To be effective, they must be dropped from altitudes of 30,000 feet or above to bring them to terminal velocity.  Known as the Blockbuster, when they were first built, the only aircraft capable of lifting that much weight that high were the B-17 and Lancaster.  These days, of course, that isn't a problem.  These were used against hardened submarine pens along the French coast and destroyed the pens completely.  They were also used against the battleship Tirpitz.  She sank from a near miss.

Third is less conventional but quite effective and doesn't require much of an investment.  If you can't break the army, break the commander.  A number of men with good, long range rifles could be sent to all of the areas frequented by Kim, with orders to take him out whenever a good chance presents itself.  His most likely successor (the next guy to step into the crosshairs) would most likely be the senior Army commander.  After seeing what happened to Kim, he, in all probability, would be reasonable.  If not, he goes down too, until you find one who is reasonable.  A related but alternative plan would be to target the senior military commanders first.  After the first one goes down, let the rest know that their choices are to replace Kim or die.  One of them would be bound to deal in order to save his own skin.  The down side of this plan is that, for obvious reasons, very few heads of state would want to see it become common practice.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika     8 months ago

Hi Ttga,

The nuclear option, no matter how pin point would have a huge fall out, both politically and from the nuclear standpoint.

I doubt that China would stand by with their hands in their pockets while we used nuclear weapons that close to their borders.

The bunker busting bombs are a good option, but no matter how many we dropped their would be surviving artillery pieces and I believe that they would rain down as many salvo's as possible without regard for their own safety.

Another thing is if the shells are tipped with bio weapons. That of course would take very few to sent off a huge death toll in Seoul.

Sending in teams to take out the ''Dear Leader'' isn't a good option IMO. We have little intel on NK and trying to find Un would be difficult. I would imagine that he would have guards around him that would be more than willing to give up their lives to save the ''Dear Leader''..

Any way you look at it, each of the above have a chance at succeeding, but the price would be very high for Seoul and the Americans on the DMV.

This situation with NK is really a no win situation...Let's hope that the current situation can be solved without resorting to war.

 

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

There is no good military option for the US to take against NK. Kim Jung Un will respond with a conventional war if he has to and a nuclear war if he has the weapons left and he does not need missiles to deliver them, just a few fanatical followers of the "Dear Leader" and he has plenty of them. The only possible solution to the problem without tens if not hundreds of thousands of people dying is through China.

Also Trump, Pence and Tillerson must stop all of this ignorant saber rattling talk as all it does is make the situation a whole lot worse, not better. Rather then intimidate a madman like Un all it does is to inflame him more. They must keep their fucking mouths shut when it comes to threats! And let Xi handle it. That is unless they want to explain to the American people why THEY are the ones who started a very bloody and senseless war in Korea that didn't have to happen. The blood will be on THEIR hands because of their amateurish and ham-handed blustering and buffoonery!

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  Randy   8 months ago

IMO, there are no good options with NK and the ''Dear Leader''......

Military force against them, especially if it's preemptive could have some really serious repercussions throughout Asia.

I'm in favor of letting the Chinese try to get things under control. I read an article about the man China has designated to be the lead with NK on this. A Mr. Wu and he has been working trying to get NK back to the table for a couple of years.

I'm for stopping with the tweets and confrontational language. There is no telling how ''Dear Leader'' will react to it.

 

 
 
Spikegary
link   Spikegary  replied to  Randy   8 months ago

China is already interceding, they turned around the coal ships form North Korea, their only export, outside of stupidity, after their leader's visit with President Trump.  I'm sure they will continue to apply pressure.

The larger problem I see is the constant saber rattling from North Korea's leader-what brought us to where we are?  No incursion on their air, land or sea space.  But they keep tossing missiles towards Japan and so on.  They have violated treaty after treaty.  When one believes he is not bound by anything, how do you negotiate with that?  It's pretty stupid to try to blame this on the current administration.....

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  Spikegary   8 months ago

No one is blaming it on the current administration, Spike.

What, IMO, is important is that Trump doesn't add fuel to the fire. Stop with the tweets.

Walk softly and carrier a big stick...

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Not DMV, it should read DMZ...

 

 
 
Cerenkov
link   Cerenkov  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Similar environments.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  Cerenkov   8 months ago

Actually when I lived in LV, the DMV there was great.

Of course here it's fine as well, but there are only around 5,000 people in the whole service area.

 
 
Cerenkov
link   Cerenkov  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

You're lucky. The ones I've visited in NJ, GA, and SC have been mostly terrible. The only exception is the new one near my house that seems to developed a fairly efficient system.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  Cerenkov   8 months ago

Probably half the vehicles here that need paperwork are tractors...LOL and some combines.

When I lived in PNW, the DMV was terrible, really terrible.

My great nephew told me one in Columbia SC is pretty good.

 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
link   Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

We have online booking now for the DMV to make appointments. It's a wonderful thing! 

 
 
TTGA
link   TTGA  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Same principle but only about 1/4 as powerful as the Blockbusters made in WWII.

 

 
 
TTGA
link   TTGA  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Any way you look at it, each of the above have a chance at succeeding, but the price would be very high for Seoul and the Americans on the DMV.

Unless he's stopped, Kim will have ICBM's, with nuclear and bio warheads, that can reach the West Coast within the next five years.  Remember this; write it on the palm of your hand if necessary:  HE'S CRAZY. IF HE HAS THEM, HE WILL SHOOT THEM.

The Chinese have been stalling for almost ten years now.  They do not have any vested interest in our survival, it's in their interest to have us destroyed.  Hence, the stalling and the reason the stalling will continue.  Since it doesn't change the basic end result, stalling is no longer an option, if it ever was.  Stalling is what Neville Chamberlain did.  It didn't stop WWII, did it?  Hell no, it made it worse.  (Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.)

It could indeed be a high price in Seoul and along the DMZ, no matter which plan is used.  Light casualties, though, compared to what will happen after a dozen nuclear warheads hit Los Angeles, which is the least that will happen if we don't deal with NK now, no matter what the cost in lives.

 

 

 

 

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  TTGA   8 months ago

Well actually they do have a vested interested in our survival since they sell more products to us ($388.1 billion), by almost $100 billion then the next nearest partner, Hong Kong ($292.2 billion). So they defiantly would prefer to keep us around rather then North Korea who they regard as a general pain in the ass and worst of all, a pretty shitty customer.

http://www.worldstopexports.com/chinas-top-import-partners/

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/12/chinas-q1-import-value-from-north-korea-rises-18-4-pct-from-a-year-ago.html

 
 
Cerenkov
link   Cerenkov  replied to  TTGA   8 months ago

Well said. Eventually someone will have to stomp out this threat. Appeasement has not worked.

 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
link   Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  Cerenkov   8 months ago

I totally agree and I think that this is the best way to handle this. Of course, it would be nice to have China on board... but it wouldn't be a deal breaker for me. 

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika     8 months ago

Ttga, yes he probably will have those weapons in near future 5 years or so. Will he use them, that is the question. He is nutty, but if he does use them, he also knows that will be the end of him and NK.

As for China not having a vested interest in the U.S. I disagree I believe that they do have a very vested interest in the U.S. Trade being larger than war for them. The interest that the Chinese have in NK is that it is a buffer zone for them as we learned in the Korean War.

There was a article a week or so ago that was published in a Chinese military journal. It stated that China does have a bottom line with NK, and if that line is crossed China will move in and take out NK...The article disappear within a day, but did give credence that there is a bottom line with China and they will, if need be, take out NK.

If we use a preemptive strike against NK with nukes, I would guess that China isn't going to stand by twiddling their thumbs.

The stakes are damn high, it is best to proceed carefully. I still believe that we should give China a chance to have a break through with NK before we start bombing or whatever tactic we take.

Once that genie is out of the bottle, it can't be put back.

 
 
TTGA
link   TTGA  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Will he use them, that is the question. He is nutty, but if he does use them, he also knows that will be the end of him and NK.

Yes, he really is nutty.  Although I wouldn't try any real diagnosis without actually talking to him, my guess would be Megalomania with the addition of BPD (Borderline Personality Disorder, used to be called Paranoid Schizophrenia).  I'm sure you can sense that even without a diagnosis.  If you can, why are you trying to apply the logic used by a sane person to him?  He is not a sane person and doesn't think like you do.

I believe that they do have a very vested interest in the U.S. Trade being larger than war for them.

Or they might just want to take over a new colony that got itself shot to pieces because they delayed action for too long.

I still believe that we should give China a chance to have a break through with NK before we start bombing or whatever tactic we take.

Once that genie is out of the bottle, it can't be put back.

I agree that the Chinese might be our best possibility and should be given a chance to make it work.  Not a very long chance, though.  Once NK nukes and ICBM's are put together, that genie can't be put back in the bottle either.  Then we have a real nuclear war that won't just affect the Korean peninsula.

If we use a preemptive strike against NK with nukes, I would guess that China isn't going to stand by twiddling their thumbs.

Actually, they might do just that or at least have their army standing there on the border waiting until we did the dirty work for them.  Then, they could move in and "rescue the Korean people" while unobtrusively occupying the country.

It's easy to say light casualties when those causalities are one of our allies people. I mean how many of them are you willing to sacrifice to get Un? 6 million?

Likely targets if we wait until NK has both nukes and ICBM's:  Honolulu, Tokyo, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Bremmerton, Portland, Seattle, Manila.  Total of roughly 100 to 150 million.  So Randy, how many of them are you willing to sacrifice so that we can sit on our asses waiting for the good fairy to come to our rescue?  Kavika is right, we aren't in a good position no matter what we do.  That means that we have to choose the option which gives us the lowest number of casualties.

Always remember, read from the palm of your hand any time you start to doubt:

HE'S CRAZY. IF HE HAS THEM, HE WILL SHOOT THEM

 

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  TTGA   8 months ago

Ttga, I'm not in any way trying to normalize Jong Un...No matter how crazy there is always self preservation for his ilk.

China, IMO has no interest in making the U.S. one of it's colonies. A nuclear war would involve China as well.

There is no doubt in my mind that China would move in and take over NK if they feel threatened in any way. There is no way that China will allow US or UN troops on it's border. That's a lesson from the Korean War.

The situation is nearly impossible, and war is certainly  a possibility. But, before we get to that point, our best bet to avoid it is China.

 
 
Buzz of the Orient
link   Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

I was talking to an expat American the other day, one who said he would never move back to America because it simply is no longer the America he grew up in (and having spent time in the USA myself over the years I agreed with that), and he had an opinion that seemed like a good possibility.  He thought that America and China would make a deal, and that America would get rid of "The Fat Un" and China would place one of their puppets (as they did in Hong Kong) in his place, and that would be the end of NK's atomic bomb and ICBM programs, and China would with the help of other threatened countries improve the life of the North Koreans so that there would be no more cause for threats against its neighbours, and a beneficial lifestyle so there would not be the incentive to immigate to South Korea and China..

In fact I will take it further. To convince China to take such control over NK, removing the threatening weaponry and making certain that NK becomes a peaceful and docile neighbour cooperating with South Korea and paying homage to China, it is going to require a lot of benefits to be provided to China. For example, the Western countries would have to support China's "One China" policy, and agree to China's expansion over the South China Sea (provided China agrees to allow free commercial shipping).  Japan, which is also threatened by NK, would have to give control to China of those disputed East China Sea islands.  In other words, make it a very good deal for China to take over control of NK. How can China resist that?

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  Buzz of the Orient   8 months ago

That certainly would be an interesting solution to the Fat Un problem, Buzz.

 
 
Buzz of the Orient
link   Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

I just added additional ideas to convince China to virtually take over NK.

 
 
Buzz of the Orient
link   Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Buzz of the Orient   8 months ago

Well, maybe it's just wishful thinking.

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Buzz of the Orient   8 months ago

. . . In other words, make it a very good deal for China to take over control of NK. How can China resist that?

I don't think smaller countries should be viewed as baubles to be traded by larger powers. Many countries would see this as colonialism and justifiably oppose it. Plus, I doubt China wants to be directly responsible for a basket case like NK . . . they already have enough mouths to feed. 

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

One of China's worries is the collapse of NK and hundreds of thousands of North Koreans pouring into China.

 

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Their other fear is the US on its border. Which is why they'll want to keep NK intact as a bugger state.

 
 
TTGA
link   TTGA  replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

Their other fear is the US on its border. Which is why they'll want to keep NK intact as a bugger state.

But not necessarily NK with Kim running it.  I think you mean buffer state, guy.  A bugger state is a whole different animal; from what I've read of T. E. Lawrence, possibly Turkey or Greece.

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  TTGA   8 months ago

Yes, I meant "buffer" state although "bugger" state is funny (as British slang). 

I doubt China will openly depose Kim. In fact, they're not buying into the need for conflict at all. They keep suggesting a dialogue between Kim and the US and the media never explores the Chinese point of view.

 

 
 
TTGA
link   TTGA  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Ttga, I'm not in any way trying to normalize Jong Un...No matter how crazy there is always self preservation for his ilk.

Doesn't work that way with BPD; once the voices (and I have a pretty good idea of whose voice would dominate in his mind) in the head start talking to you, survival has a very low priority.  I know you're not trying to normalize him.  The problem is that you're sane and he's not.  It's very difficult for a sane person to try to read the likely actions of an insane person.  None of the normal human instincts work the same way.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  TTGA   8 months ago

''The problem is that you're sane and he's not.''

You haven't talked to my wife lately...LOL

 
 
Randy
link   Randy    8 months ago

Then also there is the fact that the probably 100,000 plus lives in the South that would be lost in a war between the Korea's before we and the Chinese could get it back under control would be the lives of innocent civilians (to say nothing to the 10's of thousands of American civilians who live there) of a country that has been a good and loyal ally of ours for more then 60 years and I would not want to see them (and I am certain they would not want to) be our sacrificial lamb to take out Kim Jung Un. We have made a deal with them that we will make no military move against North Korea without them signing off on it and I would like to think we won't treat that as just another lie from this administration. If we move against NK without them agreeing to it and the South, certainly Seoul, goes up in flames, it will make every other ally we have around the world, no matter how close, lose all trust in us and our word and treaties. We can not do that.

It's easy to say light casualties when those causalities are one of our allies people. I mean how many of them are you willing to sacrifice to get Un? 6 million?

 
 
Buzz of the Orient
link   Buzz of the Orient    8 months ago

"Burrowed into hard granite mountain faces and protected behind blast doors, 15,000 North Korean cannons and rocket launchers are aimed at the glass skyscrapers, traffic-choked highways and blocks of apartment buildings 35 miles away in Seoul ― and the U.S. military bases beyond."

Take a break and watch a great classic war film: "The Guns of Navarone".

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  Buzz of the Orient   8 months ago

Loved it! Great movie! Great story and an even better cast!

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany    8 months ago

This situation is unworkable. Kim keeps his entire country on the brink of war all the time with a cocked pistol at South Korea's head, He could test his nuclear capabilities on a computer but he chooses to detonate them as a public display of both his power and refusal to be dictated to by the west. He launches ballistic missiles just to unnerve his neighbors. He shows movies on a giant public screen, depicting us being blown up with a nuclear bomb. 

China will resist turing the economic screws to force the little maniac to submit because it could trigger a collapse that would send hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing into China. China also will not tolerate an American invasion of North Korea any more now than it did in the Korean War when china entered the war to roll US forces back to the current border between the Koreas. 

Kim is an international nuisance and will become a nuclear nuisance as a way of blackmailing the world into giving him what he wants (lifting sanctions). Threatening him is pointless and only makes him more determined to do what he's doing. He simply cannot be allowed to acquire an ICBM that can carry a nuclear payload. At some point soon were either going to have to negotiate with this loon or kill him. I'd prefer to try talking first.

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

I think China will reach a breaking point (and I suspect it's getting closer) with him and "deal with him" in their own way. The person they replace him with may not love South Korea any more then he does, but they'll take his nuclear toys away from him. Which probably explains why he's killing off his family as fast as he can, even his half-brother who was supposedly safe from him.

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Randy   8 months ago

Well they'd better hurry and put their mad dog on a leash because ours is loose. 

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

We don't have one. Well, except for Mattis and he's too smart to do anything.

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Randy   8 months ago

I was referring to Trump.

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

He's too erratic to be considered a mad dog. Also it's beginning to look obvious the the DoD does not like his so-called strategy of being unpredictable, when is becoming more obvious that he is not as unpredictable as much as he doesn't know what he is doing day to day and is starting to keep him out of the loop on somethings. For instance it was painfully obvious from the way Spicer was tap dancing that Trump actually thought that the USS Vinson was in the Sea of Japan off the coast of Korea for a week when it was still 3,500 miles away and hadn't even started that way yet. No one told him where it really was.

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Randy   8 months ago

Ok. Mad dog vs dumb dog or mad dog vs big dumb kid with a shotgun. Any way you cut it, Trump is dangerous. As for the fleet, I don't know if Trump was unaware of its location or whether he was trying to fake out Kim. Since saber rattling doesn't do anything but make Kim act crazier, I doubt the location of the Vinson mattered. I think we'd all be better served if Trump would stop rattling his saber for a minute and listen to what China has to say before he reignites the Korean War. 

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

I agree 100%. Trump is dangerous, though it's always obvious who he is more dangerous to. And he needs to stop the saber rattling and let China do their best. I have no doubt that if comes down to a choice between Un and the US, they will find a way to get rid of Un. Perhaps in a quiet way or a nasty way. The North will still be ruthlessly ruled by someone, except minus the nukes.

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Randy   8 months ago

I think China is saying pretty clearly that they shouldn't have to pick between fatty Kim and Trump. They want to restart the talks not the Korean War.

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

I agree, the last thing that China wants is another Korean War and that the will do everything in their considerable power to prevent it. What the USA's responsibility is, is to not start one before they can prevent it from happening. China has a HUGE interest in not having one and in the end their will, will be done as far as NK is concerned. So we should stay out of it as much as we can. Blustering and threatening talk is just counter productive.

 
 
TTGA
link   TTGA  replied to  Randy   8 months ago

At some point soon were either going to have to negotiate with this loon or kill him. I'd prefer to try talking first.

Wouldn't we all.  The problem is that he really is a loon and has no problem breaking any deals that he might make.

I think China will reach a breaking point (and I suspect it's getting closer) with him and "deal with him" in their own way.

I think you're right Randy.  China "dealing with him" may very well be the solution.  It's obvious that nothing is really going to fix the NK problem until Kim is put under the ground.  Kavika was quite right about the U.S. having insufficient intelligence resources in NK to do the hit ourselves.  China, however, has excellent contacts there.  Also, while breaking North Korea up might require big concessions from us to China, taking Kim out shouldn't require much at all.  Having a heavily armed maniac on his southern border has to be making Primer Xi very nervous.  You can never tell who someone like that may start shooting at.  It might actually help if the President and Sec. of State keep making such noises to keep Kim's responses running with craziness at a white heat.  Removing him would solve everyone's problems and cost very little.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  TTGA   8 months ago

The article that I read from a Chinese military publication stated that there is a ''bottom line'' regarding China and if/when Un reaches it China will act and take him out.

The paper was only up for a day and than it disappeared from the site.

I totally agree that China is the answer to the Un problem. One interesting point is that Xi has never met with Un...NEVER. it's a very icy relationship. At the same time he was met with the South Korean president a number of times and China has become South Korea's largest trading partner.

There are so many moving parts that it's difficult to keep track of them all.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika     8 months ago

I'd like to thank all the NT members that participated in this article. No name calling, no insults which is great. Different opinions but the ability to express that opinion and have it heard without insults is the cornerstone of what NT should be.

It's possible folks, you saw it here.

 

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany    8 months ago

If we think China is the key, then maybe we should listen to them instead of telling them what to do. It is not in China's national interest for NK to obtain nukes or ICBMs. Nor is it in their interest to topple the NK government, damage NK's economy, or allow a hostile force on its border (i.e. the US).

In reducing coal shipments, all China did was comply with the sanctions of the UN security Council that it was previously ignoring. This is minimal.

But China has been saying repeatedly that we should restart the six party talks that ended in 2009. Those talks were between NK, SK, the US, Japan, China, and Russia. I seriously doubt that the Chinese will compromise their own interests just to make us happy, especially when the whole thing might be avoided by restarting talks. In fact, this entire mess may be that fat fool's (i.e. Kim) way of blackmailing everybody back to the table.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

We have never been good at listening 1ofmany. Listening to China would be a good first step and understanding the relationships between China and NK, both historic and modern might give us a better understanding and more could be accomplished.

Making threats isn't going to gain us much. This is not Grenada, or some small country without resources. China is a world power, both militarily and economically. That is something we have to understand whether we like it or not.

They will act in their best interest. We have to attempt to work with China so that both countries see the light and act in the best interest of both parties.

 

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

Well, since the press won't ask any useful questions, maybe it would be helpful to examine why the six party talks stopped and whether it's time to restart them.

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

A Mr. Wu is the lead for China and has been trying to get the parties together for some time now. I haven't followed the details or the reasons that it isn't happening, but as you said it may be the time to investigate further what is what.

BTW, I just read a article that stated some in British Intelligence and US believe that the US has used cyber warfare against the North Koreans.

 

 
 
Buzz of the Orient
link   Buzz of the Orient  replied to  Kavika   8 months ago

The latest news is that China's Foreign Minister has just spoken to his counterpart in Russia to help to try to get discussions going again. 

 
 
1ofmany
link   1ofmany  replied to  Buzz of the Orient   8 months ago

Good. At least China and Russia have some sense. Maybe if the other five countries start talking, they can invite Trump later.... after runs the Vinson out of fuel.

 
 
Randy
link   Randy  replied to  1ofmany   8 months ago

after runs the Vinson out of fuel.

LOL! Good one! Since that will take about another 20 years or so I hope it's later then that! But that's just how I am. Maybe when Malia Obama is President?

 
 
Buzz of the Orient
link   Buzz of the Orient    8 months ago

Okay, this is Monday here in Chongqing, China, and these planes have been going crazy for hours overhead, and it's been happening for about a week. We also got a sonic boom last week - I thought it was a bomb. Somehow they don't look like commercial flights to me.

1232125.jpg

1232126.jpg

 

 
 
Kavika
link   Kavika   replied to  Buzz of the Orient   8 months ago

No, those don't look like passenger planes Buzz.

 

 
 

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