What to Expect in the Midterm Elections for the GOP
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Making the click-through worthwhile: four key takeaways about the state of the GOP as early voting begins in the midterm elections; Hillary Clinton holds civility hostage; the world’s thuggish regimes start getting cocky; and where you can vote early.
The Big Midterm Election Preview, 27 Days Out
What follows are some cautious assessments about the 2018 midterms, gleaned from looking at recent polling . (Insert all appropriate caveats: Yes, the polls are sometimes wrong; yes, Trump’s victory in 2016 surprised a lot of people even if the final-popular vote split was in line with the polling average; yes, polling response rates are low; yes, everyone should work like they’re ten points down even if they’re ten points up.)
One: Democrats are going to pick up some governorships that slipped away from them for the past few cycles. In Illinois, Democrat J. B. Pritzker is comfortably ahead of incumbent Republican Bruce Rauner. (Some National Review readers may not consider that a significant loss .)
In Michigan, incumbent Republican Rick Snyder is term-limited, and Democrat Gretchen Whitmer is consistently leading Republican Bill Schuette. While many Wisconsin Democrats have counted out Scott Walker before and found themselves eating crow on Election Day, Democrat Tony Evers is consistently enjoying a small lead in autumn polling. In Ohio, Mike DeWine is close to Democrat Richard Cordray, but that one’s a coin toss. When the dust settles after Election Day 2018, one of the biggest topics of discussion might be a state-level collapse of the GOP in these Great Lakes states.
In Nevada, three polls in September showed Democrat Steve Sisolak enjoying a lead over Republican state attorney general Adam Laxalt — many conservatives would be deeply disappointed by a Laxalt loss.
And then there are the governor races featuring a tight race and a stark choice between a conservative Republican and a liberal Democrat. All of the polling in Georgia points to a nail-biter between Republican Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams, and in Florida, Democrat Andrew Gillum has consistently enjoyed a small lead in eight polls taken in September.
Two: The blue wave is skipping some states and races. You can probably put Maryland’s governor’s race to bed; On Tuesday morning, the Washington Post poll put incumbent Republican Larry Hogan ahead of Democrat Ben Jealous by 20 points . Democrats have high hopes for the Tennessee Senate race*, but their candidate for governor, Karl Dean, has failed to make the race competitive against Bill Lee. Up in Alaska, there’s a three-way race, and Republican Mike Dunleavy is likely to win handily against incumbent independent Bill Walker and Democrat Mark Begich. Few people think of New Hampshire or Vermont as Republican strongholds, but incumbent GOP governors Chris Sununu in New Hampshire and Phil Scott in Vermont appear to be comfortably cruising to reelection.
Three: Control of the House is probably tighter than the “blue wave” talk suggests. Races for the House of Representatives are toughest to survey, because the House district lines don’t always align with area codes and pollsters have to be more careful to ensure the households that they’re calling are in the right district.
If the Siena College polling is correct, a slew of moderately endangered House Republicans can breathe a little easier. Mike Kelly in Pennsylvania, Ted Budd in North Carolina, John Carter in Texas, Lee Zeldin in New York, and Steve Chabot in Ohio all enjoyed leads of six to 16 percentage points. All the standard points about the House remain in effect — the president’s party traditionally does badly in midterm elections, the GOP has to defend a lot of open seats, and Trump isn’t popular in the suburban districts that make up the main battlegrounds. But a prominent House Republican told me last week that he thought that his party’s chances of keeping the majority in the House are 50-50. Even if he’s being overly optimistic, a four-in-ten chance of keeping GOP control is considerably better than just a few weeks ago. For what it’s worth, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com thinks there’s just a 22 percent chance the GOP keeps control.
Keep in mind, right now the House has 235 Republicans, 193 Democrats, and seven vacancies, and Republicans found it challenging to keep their caucus united. A smaller majority for either party would make passing legislation even tougher, and leave any faction much more empowered.
Four: Maybe it’s a temporary Kavanaugh effect, but the GOP has the opportunity for a really good year in the Senate. After trailing for a long while, Marsha Blackburn is surging ahead of Phil Breseden* in Tennessee. After trailing for what felt like forever, incumbent Dean Heller is now ahead by 2 percent in the latest poll in Nevada. (As Liam Donovan keeps pointing out, Heller was a strong enough campaigner to win by about 11,000 votes while Obama was winning the state by about 68,000 votes in 2012, but for some reason the political media keeps describing Heller as the most vulnerable Senate incumbent in this cycle.)
GOP wins in Tennessee and Nevada would take away two of the Democrats’ best opportunities to pick up a seat. Republicans still have some reason to worry about Arizona where Kristen Sinema has a small but consistent lead over Martha McSally, although a new poll out this morning puts McSally up by six .
And no, Beto O’Rourke does not look like he’s going to win in Texas, which will raise tough questions about whether the $23 million donated to O’Rourke’s campaign could have been better spent elsewhere.
You can write off Heidi Heitkamp’s chances in North Dakota now.
Missouri looks really, really close, as does Florida. Polling in Indiana has been sparse, but Mike Braun has a gift-wrapped issue because of incumbent Democrat Joe Donnelly’s vote against Kavanaugh. (Failing to knock off Donnelly would rank as one of the biggest missed opportunities for the GOP in the cycle.) Democrats had felt confident about Jon Tester in Montana, but now his race against Matt Rosendale is getting tighter, too. In West Virginia, Joe Manchin probably made himself electorally bulletproof with his vote for Kavanaugh.
The Republicans’ best realistic expectation is that they keep seats in Texas, Nevada, Tennessee, and Arizona, and then knock off Democratic incumbents in North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, and Montana. That five-seat pickup would give them a comfortable 56-44 majority in the Senate. More likely, they’ll win some of those pickup opportunities and fall short in a few.
*As noted on yesterday’s Three Martini Lunch podcast, in light of a certain pop star’s recent endorsement in the Tennessee Senate race, Marsha Blackburn may have been trailing, but she figured out how to shake it off. Yes, there’s some bad blood in this race, but Tennessee voters are figuring out that Bredesen was trouble when he walked in , and they’re likely to tell the former governor that they are never ever getting back together . Blackburn is not out of the woods , but the end game is near. And where Democrats thought they had a Senate pickup on election night, they’ll end up with a . . . blank space .
‘Win Back the House and/or the Senate, That’s When Civility Can Start Again.’
You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about. That’s why I believe if we are fortunate enough to win back the House and/or the Senate, that’s when civility can start again.
In other words, civility is a luxury that can only be afforded when Hillary Clinton’s preferred party controls Congress; when the Republicans control Congress, there is no need for civility. Heads she wins, tails Republicans lose.
It’s also absolutely fascinating that Clinton defines the GOP as “a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about.” Fairly or not, this is how a lot of Republicans feel about the Democratic party.
If you care about the Second Amendment right to own a firearm, the unborn, a secure border, the enforcement of immigration laws by ICE, limiting citizenship to those who go through the proper legal steps to earn it, and keeping a fair level of what you earn, once you’ve paid your federal taxes, state taxes, local taxes, sales taxes, car taxes, and property taxes — Democrats want to “destroy” all of that. Democrats want to impede, if not destroy, school choice, vouchers, charter schools. They want to bring earmarks — member-chosen spending priorities — back into the budgeting process .
Meanwhile, on the World Stage . . .
The Turkish government claims the Saudis killed Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist who had applied for permanent residency in the United States. The Chinese just detained the head of Interpol. A Bulgarian investigative journalist was just raped and murdered.
It looks like some of the world’s more thuggish regimes feel free to act with impunity. Might be time for our law-and-order, takes-no-grief-from-anybody, never-backs-down, no-time-for-diplomatic-niceties president to get a little more vocal.
ADDENDUM: Early voting has begun in Arizona, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming (or parts of them, check your local elections boards). Whether or not you think early voting is a good idea for our country, if you’ve got the option, why not go for it? Avoid the lines on Election Day and you’re set in case your car breaks down or something else goes wrong on that first Tuesday in November.
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Ah, that Kavanaugh effect!
What to Expect in the Midterm Elections for the GOP
The unexpected, of course.
As I have often expressed, personally I have no use for either party as neither serves us. But having said that, after the most recent sideshow, I would have to say that the predicted blue wave may have broken on the shoals.
But we shall all find out in short time and until that time comes I will expect nothing less than the daily bread and circuses it takes to keep the mob at bay.
It is sad to see someone say that because information was brought out about a nominee who wouldn't have even been there if we had a legitimate president, a "sideshow" exists that mitigates the one sided travesty that is the Trump presidency.
I get more tired of the "both sides" crowd every day. Trump wrote an op-ed for USA Today yesterday , about medicare for all, that was filled with one lie after another.
Anyone who thinks that the Democrats are as bad as the Trumpsters has lost their mind.
Maybe "Trump put his name on an op-ed for USA Today" would be a better way to phrase it. I don't think anyone actually believes he wrote it himself.
The Dems may not be as bad as the GOP when it comes to human damage perhaps, but I find them to be just as useless.
John, we are what 26 days from the mid-terms and as far as I can see the Dems have yet to come up with a concrete agenda (other than they're not Trump).
Once again, the voters are left with a choice of which party is the least disgusting to deal with. Whether it is right or wrong (and who is to say it is or isn't?), the Dems have been the most disgusting side of the coin gfor the past month or so-form being obstructionist (Schumer: I'll vote agains any nominee - this before any nominee was named) to Rumor-mongering (Feinstein: I will wait until too late int he process and will drop a letter to destroy a man's good name without a scintilla of proof) to Outright Declarations of War (Clinton. Do I ned to repeat the stupidity she brought out?).
As long as these torch bearers are allowed to speak for the Democrats, they have done much to motivate voters to ensure they are not allowed to hold the reins of power. Now, I know you're going to say 'But Trump, blah, blah, blah', but remember, people have short memories in this 24/7 newscycle we live in........the Dems really have picked a bad time to shoot themselves in the foot.
As an American who believes in at least a two party system no matter how screwed up is still probably better than a one party governmental system, its my hope the democrats gain back some ground this election.
I think it's important for the balance of the country.
I hope the Dems get schlonged and the Libertarians gain some seats. We can still have two parties and less socialists.
Well, I wouldn't be surprised if politicians running members of the Libertarian Party doubled or even tripled the number of seats they now hold in the next U.S. Congress!
Q: What is the highest office ever held by a Libertarian in the US?
Throughout are history, political parties have come and gone and we have managed to have at least two major parties
LOL... Have you seen the democratic party lately ? Yep I'm concerned.
There are some moderates in the democratic party. They will need to come forward and maybe you'll have the Democratic party of old
True there still are some moderates on both sides, unfortunately it seems neither is being heard much these days. Compromise.... oh what a nasty word.
well fortunately the people who came before didn't seem to think so. At least all the time and to the degree we now have. Not to my knowledge anyway.
It seems we are taking one direction then an about face and heading the opposite way.
To me that seems so inefficient and wasteful. I think we'd make much better progress as a nation if we could decided where to go and work on achieving it.
I dont see that happening and the division we have feeds the power and profit of the politicians and media so I see NO way out of this either.
That is part of why I really do try to be neutral and not engage in the infighting. It has to begin somewhere and I think that is with each of us decided to not engage ourselves in this uncompromising dysfunctional behaviour.
I of course am not perfect and find myself engaged where I'd really rather not be, its hard when everyone is pulling you both directions. But the middle is where I want to call home. Where reality and sanity still rules (sometimes) LOL
to me this is all Sad !
Overall, I'm optimistic but concerned.
History teaches us that we have been here before. Do you know why the Senate has rules on Senators treating each other with a modicum of respect? It goes back to the days of secession, when we were as divided as now:
"In May 22, 1856, the "world's greatest deliberative body" became a combat zone. In one of the most dramatic and deeply ominous moments in the Senate's entire history, a member of the House of Representatives entered the Senate Chamber and savagely beat a senator into unconsciousness.
The inspiration for this clash came three days earlier when Senator Charles Sumner, a Massachusetts antislavery Republican, addressed the Senate on the explosive issue of whether Kansas should be admitted to the Union as a slave state or a free state. In his "Crime Against Kansas" speech, Sumner identified two Democratic senators as the principal culprits in this crime—Stephen Douglas of Illinois and Andrew Butler of South Carolina. He characterized Douglas to his face as a "noise-some, squat, and nameless animal . . . not a proper model for an American senator." Andrew Butler, who was not present, received more elaborate treatment. Mocking the South Carolina senator's stance as a man of chivalry, the Massachusetts senator charged him with taking "a mistress . . . who, though ugly to others, is always lovely to him; though polluted in the sight of the world, is chaste in his sight—I mean," added Sumner, "the harlot, Slavery."
Representative Preston Brooks was Butler's South Carolina kinsman. If he had believed Sumner to be a gentleman, he might have challenged him to a duel. Instead, he chose a light cane of the type used to discipline unruly dogs. Shortly after the Senate had adjourned for the day, Brooks entered the old chamber, where he found Sumner busily attaching his postal frank to copies of his "Crime Against Kansas" speech.
Moving quickly, Brooks slammed his metal-topped cane onto the unsuspecting Sumner's head. As Brooks struck again and again, Sumner rose and lurched blindly about the chamber, futilely attempting to protect himself. After a very long minute, it ended.
Bleeding profusely, Sumner was carried away. Brooks walked calmly out of the chamber without being detained by the stunned onlookers. Overnight, both men became heroes in their respective regions.
WOW
When it comes to politics, I'm a newbie...lol
I always figured we hired people to run the government and as long as they were doing their job I didn't pay much attention, Till the world seemed to be going to hell when I watched my 401 K , my home value and my job go into the toilet, That caught my attention finally.
I became an independent and started researching each politician before voting for any. I vote across party line and try to chose the most qualified person , I think bad politicians gain power by the straight party line vote so I dont do it.
I vote for the person, not either or any party.
Correct. And I don't think we're ever going to have only one party-- despite everything our democratic traditions are too strong!
The record is good, and we certainly have a fairly equally devided country, but with one party having little to no power at this time (and being a weak party to boot at this time IMO) I do worry that this will continue and increase.
Even though our progress is stifled by the two party system it does allow both sides a seat at the table that otherwise results in no power on one side and that seems to lead to protests, riots and radials like in another seeded article. here.
We only have one country both parties can not rule it in their own way at the same time. And When one party has too much power or most of or all the power the other party turns to whatever they can to assert whatever influence they can.
That is not just in America either.
Have to agree on Moderates. Moderates make for good government, but not for headline grabbing, 'hot off the presses' news and soundbites, so you don't hear what they have to say very often. In addition, we went form four parties (Liberal, Dem, Republican, Conservative) but the press and politicinas and followers have reduced everything to 2 parties: Repubs and Dems (and you are classed as conservative if republican and liberal if democrat), which causes a vast canyon of voters to be ignored.
2016 elections should have taught politicinas that ignoring any section of voters can have dire consequences.
I think most of the politicians have come to the realization they only need slightly more than half the populas to control the whole of us.
The Democrats will still probably take the House. But I don't think a wipeout along the lines of the last few midterms is likely. Probably about 30 seats or so, giving the Democrats a narrow majority in the House. IT will interesting to see how far the dems representing purple districts will chase the far left obsessions.
Pre Kavanaugh, I thought the Republicans had a 50 50 chance to keep control with 50 Senators. Now, I'd say they gain a seat or two. The Kavanaugh witch hunt (he led a rape gang and made fart jokes in high school!) has finally gotten Republican interest to ramp up to approach the levels Democrats have been operating on since Trump's election. Thanks Avenetti and Ronan Farrow!
My guess is even if the GOP does even better than expected (especially in the House) the Democrats will triple down after doubling down in 2016. Expect more identity politics, calls for incivility (to put it nicely), intersectionality and generally more radicalization. The left will have to sink all the way to the bottom before it starts to recover.
I keep hoping they've hit the bottom but nope.
There is NO "BOTTOM" in Liberal land. They keep moving the "Line".
I think the Democrats are going to make some gains in the House, but will not achieve a majority, the Republicans will retain control of the Senate perhaps even picking up a seat or two and the Democrats will add a few governors to their side of the aisle as well as gaining control of a few state legislatures.
Where you once on NV, possibly as Bob from Ohio?
No it was always Robert in Ohio - I took a hiatus some months back when the incivility and hostility made actual debate impossible. I continued to read and check things out but seldom contributed. I have decided to give it another go
I'm glad to hear it. I miss the logic.
Thanks for that I will try to present logic and facts in those debates/conversations I join in
I agree that the senate is a long shot. Not going to flip.
IMO the house is a toss up. Depends on voter turnout.
Yep, I usually look to see which side is more unhappy (because unhappy people seem to vote more) this time I see a toss up.
Ender
Indeed turnout will be key - the two appointments to the SCOTUS and the surrounding tumult and chaos will energize those on the right and a fear that another appointment (if RBG should decide to or have to resign for health reasons) could occur will motivate the left: likewise those enjoying the tax cuts will want to make sure they are not overturned while those who think the tax cuts are bad will want to have them overturned.
So yes turnout will be key
I'm betting on another 2016 …...… Surprise !!!!!!!!!!
'Cause the media and the polling was soooooo right back then.
can they call cell phones?
I'm not thinking... people who answer landlines represent the avg voter.
Seeing as Trump won't drain the swamp, it is up to the voters to do it for him.