In Arab world, a new alliance is on the rise
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
The Arab World (The Economist)
Across the Middle East, from Iraq to North Africa, a new informal alignment of Sunni Arab countries is quietly influencing developments.
The alliance – comprising Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt – is stepping up as a leading actor in the Arab world with a voice on issues ranging from postwar Syria and the thwarting of Iran to diplomatic overtures on the Yemen and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts
What is behind this new alliance?
Chiefly Iran and its influence in Arab states. The Big 6 is first and foremost a Sunni Arab coalition that seeks to act as a bulwark against Iran, coordinate Arab foreign policy, and prevent the encroaching influence of non-Arab regional actors such as Turkey.
All six states, to varying degrees, have been wary of increased Iranian influence in the Arab world since the 2003 Iraq war – a concern that became an alarm with Iran’s military presence in Syria following the outbreak of the 2011 civil war. Members see what they call a “Shiite crescent” stretching from Iran through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon and even Yemen encircling them. More concerning is the installation by pro-Iranian militias in these countries of ballistic missiles with the ability to hit Arab capitals.
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What is behind this new alliance?
Chiefly Iran and its influence in Arab states. The Big 6 is first and foremost a Sunni Arab coalition that seeks to act as a bulwark against Iran, coordinate Arab foreign policy, and prevent the encroaching influence of non-Arab regional actors such as Turkey.
Agree in part...but...I just have a feeling the Sunni Arab States harbor 'grave suspicions' with anything the West and especially the US, if they openly support to coalition.
This too must be considered. Iran wishes to regain the influence it once had when it was The Persian Empire.
This too. Turkey will not allow itself to be boxed in, especially when there are Turkish rumblings within the Parliament to regurgitate the security and prosperity it had when it ran and controlled The Ottoman Empire.
In my honest opinion----while admitting there is still much I am unsure of----The Western Powers made a grave miscalculation when they destroyed two of The Baathist Regimes (Iraq and Libya ), diminishing the third, (Syria ) forcing it into a protection mode/client state by the Russians and Iran.
I just have a feeling the Sunni Arab States harbor 'grave suspicions' with anything the West and especially the US, if they openly support to coalition.
This would've happened even if the U.S. didn't exist...the hatred between the Sunni and Shia branches of Islam began long before the U.S. even existed.
Turkey will not allow itself to be boxed in,
By "boxed in" I assume you mean that they no longer are able to live with the fact that they lost their colonial empire.
But nations with different values than Turkey seem to be OK with that-- for example Germany today seems to be perfectly OK with not feeling "boxed in" by their loss of the Nazi Empire they once had. (Of course Germany today has much more democratic values than Turkey...)
Turkey is a non-Arab Muslim nation.
So are the Kurds.
So is Iran (Farsi, non-Arab).
"It gets curiouser and curiouser". Lewis Carrol
Turkey is a non-Arab Muslim nation.
So are the Kurds.
So is Iran (Farsi, non-Arab).
There's a lot of hatred and distrust of "the other"in the Arab world. And their rulers need someone to hate-- a scapegoat to turn their peoples' anger at their miserable conditions away from the rulers and towards some other group.
The easiest target is non-Muslims. Hence the demonization of Israel which when created was the second non-Muslim majority country in the area.
But if there aren't enough of those inthe area, they go to the next level--the Sunni Muslims are incited to hate the Shia muslims, and vice versa. That hatred goes back a long way...
And if that fails, they turn their hatred towards those who may be of a similar Islamic sect-- but who are ethnically different. (For example, many Arabs hate the Kurds.While most Arabs are Sunni Muslim-- soare the Kurds. But they can target them because ethnically Kurds are not Arabs).
Similarly, many Arabs and Iranians feel mutual hatred, because the iranians, while Muslim, are not Arabs (they're actually descendents of the ancient Persians). In fact for the iranians, it can be a "double whammy"-- not only are they not Arabs, but they are Shia-- and most Arabs are Sunni. (Most Iraqis are Shia-- but some of them hate the Shia Persians because they are not Arabs!).
The need to find a "different" group to hate is deeply ingrained in most Arab cultures in today's world. And Arab dictators use this tendency to turn their peoples' anger away from hatred of their rulers. The Israelis know this: that their existence is crucial for Arab rulers. (The Arab masses for the most part want the Israelis exterminated-- but their rulers would hate to see their scapegoats destroyed!)
In fact the Israelis have a saying:
If we didn't exist, the Arabs would've invented us!
Just as Rick Blaine (Humphrey Bogart) said to Ilsa Lund (Ingrid Bergman) in Casablanca "We'll always have Paris", the Arabs can say "We'll always hate Israel".
It never ends with you does it.
Sorry, not trolling you but....Farsi is the language, Persian or in background, Germanic is the genetics.
Are you saying that because of the Aryan connection? Itis my understanding the Aryans as a group emerged from the Indian sub-continent from earlier groups who had migrated there from elsewhere.
Hitler misappropriated the term.
Don't make me sorry I once helped you.
As explained to me...Germanic emigrating from Russia.
This coming from a well educated Persian I have known for 19 years.
Worth some extra research then. I don't have time until the weekend, but I am always up for this kind of study.
I'll make a note to follow up, along with a few other things. Anything I find, I will include references. Should be interesting, considering all the different migrations which happened in our past.
Ohhhh it gets deeper!
First I'll say this...if you travel at all, especially in the ME or N. Africa there are some striking similarities.
Almost every Arab in the penninsula and EVERY Arab in N. Africa as well as Iran speak French fluently. This came from colonization. Same in Viet Nam.
Now the other striking similarity? Iran and the USA....it's kind of funny to watch what they do because reflectively they mimic The USA, not easy for me to explain but they are about 15 years behind us in historical events.
Our colony influence on them is pretty large.
I used to send gifts there quite often, usually by fed-ex or UPS and had to file several forms then in about 3 weeks it would arrive.
I was at the airport post office sending some packages in the US and they clerk asked "anything else we can help you with?" I sarcasticly said " Yeah make it easier for me to send packages to Iran"
He explained that they indeed ship to Iran...and then said "Where do you think this zip code came from? We built their postal system and they have one of the most advanced systems in the world that works seamlessly with ours. I can generally get your package their in under 10 days, and since you are shipping to Tehran, 5 days" I brought a box in later and shipped it through him, 4 days later she got it.
And for all the brouhaha...they ship to and from through Haifa, Israel!
But the youth rebellion, the woman's movement all familiar to the same themes and actions.
Funny to watch styles too...for a while even in L.A. they were all being Don Johnson in Miami Vice. 5 yeafs after it's airing stopped.
SHIT! I got lost in my babbling...one other quirk...Persians can be bigoted. I noticed some remarks about Arabs and asked....this was the answer I got..."You know how you treat Black people in your country (to which my hair started standing up) I don't mean you, but in general? Well, we see Arabs as the N..... of the Middle East."
It was saddening....
The vilest insult you can throw at a Turk is "Arab!"
Lol yeah...don't try it with a Persian either.
Sorry, not trolling you but....Farsi is the language, Persian or in background, Germanic is the genetics.
Actually I am aware of that-- in fact I was going to correct that comment myself-- but decided not to bother.
(Check out my comment #1.2.1 again-- those three lines are indented as I included them because I was quoting another comment-- I quoted them as a a reply to where they appeared (comment #1.2):
1.2.1 seeder Krishna replied to Enoch @ 1.2 2 days ago
Turkey is a non-Arab Muslim nation.
So are the Kurds.
So is Iran (Farsi, non-Arab).
Hitler misappropriated the term.
Yes and he also misappropriated the Swastika!
In India and some other parts of Asia, the Swastika is an ancient symbol which has very positive associations. Also, I believe some American Indian tribes have also used it, long before the rise of the Nazis (it also had a positive meaning for them). Also I believe for many of these peoples it was a religious symbol-- but a very positive one.
Hitler misappropriated the term.
Yes and he also misappropriated the Swastika!
In India and some other parts of Asia, the Swastika is an ancient symbol which has very positive associations. Also, I believe some American Indian tribes have also used it, long before the rise of the Nazis (it also had a positive meaning for them). Also I believe for many of these peoples it was a religious symbol-- but a very positive one.
I think the Swastika may be such a powerful symbol because it evokes deep feeling within the human "collective subconscious" (if you believe in that sort of thing :^). (What some people would call "an archetype").
Why?
My theory is because the Swastika is similar to the Spiral-- a very powerful image found in nature.
Hitler misappropriated the term.
Yes and he also misappropriated the Swastika!
In India and some other parts of Asia, the Swastika is an ancient symbol which has very positive associations. Also, I believe some American Indian tribes have also used it, long before the rise of the Nazis (it also had a positive meaning for them). Also I believe for many of these peoples it was a religious symbol-- but a very positive one.
I think the Swastika may be such a powerful symbol because it evokes deep feeling within the human "collective subconscious" (if you believe in that sort of thing :^). . . what some people would call "an archetype").
Why?
My theory is because the Swastika is similar to the Spiral-- a very powerful image found in nature.
a very powerful image found in nature.
And A above, so below:
-Matthew 6:10
Interesting to see the Buddha with a reverse swastika on his chest. At the annual Peony Festival in a park in Luoyang, the city in China where Buddhism was first brought by Indian monks, this ancient lantern was located. Note that the direction for the swastika is the same as on the Buddhist monk. Although I've been in so many Buddhist temples and compounds in China I've never seen another swastika.
This is correct. The swastika was used by many ancient cultures including Native American cultures.
You know what? I have never thought of the correlation to our spiral galaxy. It makes perfect sense.
I hope both you and Studiusbagus don't mind that I reply to both of you in this same post. It is late, I am in my middle of the night sleeplessness and need to get back to sleep.
About the Aryans coming from the northern Germanic tribes via Russia, that story goes straight back to the early/mid 19th century racial "science" aimed at minimizing the non-wonder bread peoples and is completely contrary to recent discoveries...sorry, too late post links, got to catch some Zs for now.
Very interesting Buzz.
The swastika was used by the Navajo and other SW tribes for centuries. You can still find buildings in NM, pre 1940 that have swastika's on them. You'll also find the swastika on Navajo blankets and rugs.
The 45th Infantry Division patch was the swastika and was changed to the Thunderbird.
How does this affect the US?
It is unclear as long as US Mideast policy remains unclear. All six states are traditional US allies who host either strategic US military bases or operate closely with American forces. Washington has shared economic and security interests with these members; individually, each has reliable track records of supporting and promoting US policy in the region.
However, the Big 6 was formed largely as a response to the shrinking American influence in the region and the reluctance of the Obama and now Trump administrations to take strong action against Iran and its proxies beyond diplomatic and economic sanctions.
Hard to say since I have no idea any longer what our policy is if we even have one.
* * * sigh * * *
Not sure what the ''sigh'' is, but I'm fully aware of these countries aligning themselves could be much the same as aligning themselves with Israel. My point being that with this administration attempting to understand or predict what they will or won't do is much the same as throwing dice and hoping that you don't crap out.
Our inexistant policy.
And not to worry! Three-dimensional chess, you see...
Yeah, if you want to understand a Vegan, you've got to think like a Vegan. (Contact)
Yeah, Trump's "Deal of the Century" is going to TAKE a century before it's presented.
This is good news for Israel. Having the most important Sunni states allied against Iran is functionally the same as having them allied with Israel.
... and curiously... Hamas seems all alone these days...
The enemy of my enemy is my friend?
TBD.
That's my guess.
From what I gather Turkey use to be relatively stable and safe. I read that for a while, it was a popular vacation destination by people from like the UK.
Dear Friend Ender: You are coorrect.
Turkey prided itself on getting on with its neighbors (Israel included); being a predominantly Muslim yet secular and free modern nation.
All that changed with Erdowan.
Good post.
E.
Shame really.
I thought it changed with the Mavi Marmara incident.
From what I gather Turkey use to be relatively stable and safe. I read that for a while, it was a popular vacation destination by people from like the UK.
Yes.
And beyond the Brits-- it was one of the most popular vacation spot for Israelis!
It had been fairly democratic, and one of the more moderate Muslim nations-- probably the most moderate in the Middle East.
But than Erdogan took over and things changed radically for the worse.
(For a while he was even covertly helping ISIS...but being the crazies that they are ISIS made the mistake of attacking Turkey. Both ISISand Turkey are Sunni-- and therefore enemies of Syria;s Assad a Shia).
That's what I thought. I guess I just don't get how it can change so quickly.
Erdogan came to power in 2002 .. was the Prime Minister for 10 + years, and was 'elected' President in 2014 .. it was not until the [so called] coup attempt in 2016 that Erdogan began to purge the nation and drag it back into the middle ages … after the 2019 're-election' Erdogan will have even more power over Turkey... the Turkish Constitution was rewritten to give him more power ...
I do believe Erdogan would love to have his own Ottoman Empire - but I think there will be something more along the lines of the United Republic of Islam - that Erdogan will not have control over....
Erdogan is a "Muslim democrat": in favor of ONE MAN, ONE VOTE... ONE TIME... There is only one semi-successful Muslim democracy, Tunisia.
It still is. The bombings and other incidents are not aimed towards citizens nor tourists.
When I first got there I was pulled aside and advised, "nobody is wishing you harm, we're glad you're here. Two tips, keep your politics at the border and avoid government buildings and you'll enjoy your stay. The anger is toward our government, not it's people"
Best advice I got.
Interesting read .. yet, a key factor is being missed .. one significant one is that Russia has been propping up Assad - Russia is an ally to Iran .. then there is China and it's influence growing in the ME as well - once again an ally of Iran and Russia .. Turkey and Iraq have increased trade ……. all of which is barely scratching the surface of the complexity ….. Israel is even having chats with Russia....
Putin is desperately trying to maintain the relevance of Russia on the international scene.
If we examine Russia dispassionately: military, economy, ... It is a third rate power, weaker than several European countries, not to mention the EU as a whole. There's no comparison with either the US or China.
So Putin gesticulates.
The times they are a changin'!
(In some parts of the Arab world).
Update, 3/24/2019:
Hatikvah (The Hope), Israel’s National Anthem, played in Qata r this weekend as Israeli gymnast Alexander Shatilov wins the GOLD medal at the artistic Gymnastics World Cup.