Mr. Forty Percent

  
By:  john-russell  •  2 months ago  •  75 comments

Mr. Forty Percent

This is a representation of Trumps approval rating over time

512

At the tail end there, on May 12,     2019, his approval rating at Gallup is 42%. As you can see it dipped from 46%  last week.

Trump's approval rating across the 2 1/3 years he has been president have been remarkably consistent, never varying from the range of 37% to 44%. A couple times he got up to 45 and once to 46. This is a weekly poll by the way.

The white horizontal line in the graph is the 40% mark. Trump's approval rating hovers around that figure every week, week in , week out.

It seems clear this figure represents Trump's "base", but the interesting thing is that he cannot add to it. Most people can't stand him. And , we should say, he can't fall below these figures either. This "40 percent" would largely die for Trump.

These figures make a poll result today even more interesting. Trump was matched against Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris and Buttigieg in a Fox News poll, and  "in none of the head-to-head match-ups listed in the poll (vs. Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren or Buttigieg) does Trump get more than 41 percent of the vote." https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/17/trumps-biggest-problem-biden-women/?utm_term=.83ec66b74d0e

The WAPO writer goes on to say  "If that remains his ceiling, he’s in deep, deep trouble."

Trump needs a third party candidate to take votes from the left. He can't get to 50%, not even close. Without a third party candidate to save him, he is up the creek.

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JohnRussell
1  author  JohnRussell    2 months ago

The majority of Americans have tired of all his buffoonery.

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
1.1  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  JohnRussell @1    2 months ago

 

hint: just like 2016 - the polls are wrong

those polls are manipulated just like fake news... take them with a grain of salt.

 

 
 
 
MrFrost
1.1.1  MrFrost  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @1.1    2 months ago

Polls reflect popularity, not the electorate. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
1.1.2  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @1.1.1    2 months ago
Polls reflect popularity, not the electorate.

So then polls of likely voters means nothing, right?

 
 
 
It Is ME
1.1.3  It Is ME  replied to  Texan1211 @1.1.2    2 months ago

They always seem to forget to poll "Actual" voters. Wonder why ?

 
 
 
MrFrost
1.1.4  MrFrost  replied to  Texan1211 @1.1.2    2 months ago
So then polls of likely voters means nothing, right?

In a presidential election? No, they are meaningless since the outcome is decided by the electorate. In ALL other elections, where the POPULAR vote decides the winner, yes, polls DO mean something. 

Not rocket science....it's been that way for a VERY long time. 

If you want proof? Who won the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election? Who won the electorate? Get it now? 

 
 
 
livefreeordie
1.1.5  livefreeordie  replied to  MrFrost @1.1.4    2 months ago

Trump appears to be headed for a landslide electoral victory since the Democrats are divided between communists and the ever moronic socialist Biden.

thats good news for our country that we have likely 4-8 years until the fall of this nation is permanent 

 
 
 
livefreeordie
1.1.6  livefreeordie  replied to  MrFrost @1.1.4    2 months ago

Considering that Democrats and the left wing media have called for his impeachment since he was elected, his numbers are great.

in fact they are little different from Hussein Obama at the same point

Obama was at 44% on 4/30/11

https://news.gallup.com/poll/151025/obama-job-approval-monthly.aspx

 
 
 
Tessylo
1.1.7  Tessylo  replied to  livefreeordie @1.1.5    2 months ago

socialist, communist, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
1.1.8  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  livefreeordie @1.1.5    2 months ago

Hopefully the EC realizes their monumental f up last time and won't make the same mistake twice.

 
 
 
Texan1211
1.1.9  Texan1211  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.1.8    2 months ago
Hopefully the EC realizes their monumental f up last time and won't make the same mistake twice.

The EC voted as it always does, with just two exceptions.

The EC voted as expected according to the popular vote in each state.

 
 
 
JBB
2  JBB    2 months ago

No President prior to Trump has ever never garnered a 50% approval at least once...

 
 
 
Greg Jones
2.1  Greg Jones  replied to  JBB @2    2 months ago

His approval rating is higher than Obama's was at this point in his term of presidency.

 
 
 
†hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh
2.1.1  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh  replied to  Greg Jones @2.1    2 months ago

It depends what poll you look at. The ones John looks at are the ones that continue to over sample democrats as they did in 2016. The one they hate is the only one that got the electoral college and popular vote right in pre-election polling.

Our media and democrats believe that polls make it true and or prevent people from deciding to vote. The polls are junk, see the recent Australian election. The progressive pollsters missed by a mile, over sampling progressives.

It really is strange that democrats and the media continue to push these poor polls but it does allow them to feel temporary relief from reality.

 
 
 
MrFrost
2.1.2  MrFrost  replied to  Greg Jones @2.1    2 months ago

Yea, there are many on the right that hated seeing a black guy in charge of the country. 

 
 
 
MrFrost
2.1.3  MrFrost  replied to  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh @2.1.1    2 months ago

I tend to look at RCP because they are an average of all the polls. More data means more accuracy. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.2  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @2    2 months ago
No President prior to Trump has ever never garnered a 50% approval at least once...

Not a requirement. Not important.

it is nothing more than a poll.

Phffft.

 
 
 
XXJefferson#51
2.2.1  XXJefferson#51  replied to  Texan1211 @2.2    2 months ago

Trump has exceeded 50% in the Rasmussen daily tracking poll. 

 
 
 
MrFrost
2.2.2  MrFrost  replied to  XXJefferson#51 @2.2.1    2 months ago

Trump has never been above 46%, average of ALL the polls, (including rasmussen).

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html 

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.3  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @2    2 months ago

Not a surprise.    

No president prior to Trump has received this level of hatred from the media and the left.    And largely because they are butthurt that Trump won even after most of them promised he had no pathway to do so.

I just hope enough people see thru it once again in 2020.    It would be akin to letting a child get what they want by throwing a temper tantrum ...... never a good thing.    Not good at all.

 
 
 
pat wilson
2.3.1  pat wilson  replied to  Sparty On @2.3    2 months ago
No president prior to Trump has received this level of hatred from the media and the left.

No president prior to trump has been as vile and unqualified. Not a surprise.

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.3.2  Sparty On  replied to  pat wilson @2.3.1    2 months ago

You need to bone up on your history there Pat.    Try to be unbiased if you can if you chose to do so.

I won’t hold my breath for that to happen

 
 
 
XXJefferson#51
2.3.3  XXJefferson#51  replied to  Sparty On @2.3.2    2 months ago

Me either....

 
 
 
pat wilson
2.3.4  pat wilson  replied to  Sparty On @2.3.2    2 months ago

Name me one who even comes close to being worse. You can't.

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.3.5  Sparty On  replied to  pat wilson @2.3.4    2 months ago

The fact that you think I can’t name even one speaks to your mindset.     Either you are hopelessly saddled with partisan/emotional bias or your understanding of history is sophomoric at best.

Trump isn’t close to the bottom.    The question isn’t if I can name one.   It’s which one do I name?    Buchanan?    A Johnson?     Pierce or Harding perhaps?    I could keep going.

Based on your mindset I don’t expect you to agree but you would be wrong from a purely historical perspective.

Less emotion, more reason please.

 
 
 
pat wilson
2.3.6  pat wilson  replied to  Sparty On @2.3.5    2 months ago

I'm not a student of presidential history but I have read some and yes the ones you mentioned were bad but I stand by my opinion that trump is, by far the worst.

 
 
 
Ender
2.3.7  Ender  replied to  pat wilson @2.3.6    2 months ago

What makes him even worse (IMO) is all the corrupt, self serving people he surrounds himself with.

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.3.8  Sparty On  replied to  pat wilson @2.3.6    2 months ago

I understand but like I said.   Less emotion, more reason.   Saying that Trump is worse than say a President who helped enable the Civil War, is not logical.

Its not even close .......

 
 
 
Ronin2
2.3.9  Ronin2  replied to  pat wilson @2.3.1    2 months ago

LBJ wasn't vile?  As for qualified- his own party hated him.  But he has that all important D behind his name right?

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
2.4  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  JBB @2    2 months ago

No President prior to Trump has ever never garnered a 50% approval at least once

Wrong.

Obama - 69

GW Bush - 90

G.H.W. Bush - 89

Clinton - 73

Reagan - 71

Carter - 74

Ford - 70

Nixon - 64

Johnson - 79

Kennedy - 82

Eisenhower - 77

Truman - 87

Roosevelt - 83

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.4.1  Texan1211  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @2.4    2 months ago

I think the poster just worded it a little awkwardly.

What he is saying is that every President before Trump has had at least one 50% approval rating.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
2.4.2  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  Texan1211 @2.4.1    2 months ago

The "never ever" part seemed pretty clear as to the comment's intent.  But if it is indeed what you said, apologies to the poster.

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.4.3  Texan1211  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @2.4.2    2 months ago

It is worded awkwardly, but it does say ever never, not never ever.

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
3  Dean Moriarty    2 months ago

Not too shabby when you compare it to congress with a 22% approval rating. 

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
3.1  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3    2 months ago
Not too shabby when you compare it to congress with a 22% approval rating. 

22% is still far better than the anemic 13% they averaged under republicans for the last 8 years they were the majority.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1600/congress-public.aspx

With a Democrat majority congress now actually doing the job of oversight their approval rating will continue to rise. They might break 50% if they have the fortitude to do what responsible patriotic Americans want them to and start impeachment hearings. Even Republicans see the hand writing on the wall. Trump has been weighed nd measured and found wanting. Republican Justin Amash joins more than 900 former federal prosecutors, from both Republican and Democratic administrations, who believe Trump’s behavior, as outlined by Mueller, would have resulted in “multiple felony charges for obstruction of justice” were he a private citizen and not the president of the United States. Conservative law professor J.W. Verret, a former member of the Trump transition team, has written how the “elaborate pattern of obstruction” uncovered by the report is, at a minimum, enough “to get the impeachment process started.”

 
 
 
Sparty On
3.1.1  Sparty On  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @3.1    2 months ago

Lol ..... my horrible rating is better than your horrible rating.

Classic!

 
 
 
†hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh
4  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh    2 months ago

It's important to remember that all of the polls over sample Democrats with the exception of one that many here whine about even though it was the only one that got 2016 right.It's surprising to see Democrats continuing to rely on the polls that fail them.

Democrats will lose in 2020 over the economy and immigration but polls will prevent them from realizing it until the tears flow.

 
 
 
XXJefferson#51
4.1  XXJefferson#51  replied to  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh @4    2 months ago

Democrats will also lose as they are exposed to the light of day and all of their corruption is revealed in the targeting of Trump by Obama, Hillary, and the Russians.  

 
 
 
MrFrost
4.1.1  MrFrost  replied to  XXJefferson#51 @4.1    2 months ago
and the Russians.

Huh? 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/16/putin-trump-win-election-2016-722486

The Russians wanted trump to win. That's been established a long time ago. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.2  Sparty On  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.1    2 months ago

True but if you recall, that was more because of Putin’s feud with Hillary than it was support for Trump.

 
 
 
Ronin2
4.1.3  Ronin2  replied to  MrFrost @4.1.1    2 months ago
The Russians wanted trump to win. That's been established a long time ago. 

Wrong, the Russians wanted to foment discord; which is the reason they put money forward and used their bots to organize and stage left wing protests following Trump's win.

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/358025-thousands-attended-protest-organized-by-russians-on-facebook

Thousands of Americans attended a march last November organized by a Russian group that used social media to interfere in the 2016 election.

The demonstration in New York City, which took place a few days after the election, appears to be the largest and most successful known effort to date pulled off by Russian-linked groups intent on using social media platforms to influence American politics. 

Sixteen thousand Facebook userssaid that they planned to attend a Trump proteston Nov. 12, 2016, organized by the Facebook page for BlackMattersUS, a Russian-linked group that sought to capitalize on racial tensions between black and white Americans. The event was shared with 61,000 users.

As many as 5,000 to 10,000 protesters actually convened at Manhattan's Union Square. They then marched to Trump Tower, according to media reports at the time. 

The BlackMattersUS-organized rally took advantage of outrage among groups on the left following President Trump’s victory on Nov. 8 to galvanize support for its event. The group’s protest was the fourth consecutive anti-Trump rally in New York following election night, and one of many across the country.   

“Join us in the streets! Stop Trump and his bigoted agenda!” reads theFacebook event pagefor the rally. “Divided is the reason we just fell. We must unite despite our differences to stop HATE from ruling the land.”

While the focus has been on Russian efforts ahead of the election, the BlackMatters rally days after Trump's victory shows that Russian-linked social media influence efforts continued after the election.

The BlackMatters organizing group was connected to the Internet Research Agency, a Russian “troll farm” with ties to the Kremlin,according to a recent investigationby the Russian Magazine RBC. Facebook has identified the Internet Research Agency as the group responsible for purchasing 3,000 political ads on Facebook’s platform and operating 470 accounts that appear to have attempted to influence the perspectives of Americans during the 2016 elections.

Facebook has since deleted those 470 accounts. BlackMatters's account has been deleted as well, although Facebook has not officially confirmed the reason for BlackMatters being deleted from its site. Twitter also appears to have deleted an account associated with the group, possibly in its own purge of accounts linked to Russian actors.

The left, making Putin's job exceedingly easy.

 
 
 
 
nightwalker
4.1.4  nightwalker  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.2    2 months ago

Naw, I think Putin's problem with Clinton was she wasn't so easy to manipulate. She loves big money and power but much prefers the U.S.'s big businesses and money.

And Then he saw trump, a semi-literate perpetual child that inherited a lot of money he was losing, a small-time con with always a scam (trump wines, trump vodka, trump steaks, trump "university" and the best and biggest inside joke, trump's charity to mention a few.)

A person so selfish, crooked and stupid that no U.S. bank would loan him any more money but a European bank that was investigated and fined for laundering money would. And there are always Putin controlled banks in Russia that would love to loan trump money as long as he does what he's told.

LOL

Putin knows a perfect patsy when he sees one and he saw trump.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.5  Sparty On  replied to  nightwalker @4.1.4    2 months ago
Naw, I think Putin's problem with Clinton was she wasn't so easy to manipulate.

What rock were you living under?  

Putin clearly thought Clinton tried to manipulate his election.   He said so himself.   Whether she actually did is irrelevant.   He thought she did.   As i recall as SOS, she like many SOS's before her, questioned Russian election validity.    So in Putins mind she did.

Open your eye's and see what's around you.   Not just what the hive tells you to see.

 
 
 
Tessylo
4.1.6  Tessylo  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.5    2 months ago

So you believe Putin?

jrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gifjrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gifjrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gifjrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gif

You repeat that hive nonsense everywhere, you're the one with the hive mind.  

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.7  Sparty On  replied to  Tessylo @4.1.6    2 months ago

This thread isn't about me.  

[deleted]

 
 
 
Tessylo
4.1.8  Tessylo  replied to  nightwalker @4.1.4    2 months ago
'Putin knows a perfect patsy when he sees one and he saw trump.'

Yup Rump is a useful idiot to Rump.

 
 
 
Tessylo
4.1.9  Tessylo  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.7    2 months ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
nightwalker
4.1.10  nightwalker  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.5    2 months ago

Putin really said that? Oh goodness, then it must be the truth. Maybe you should try opening YOUR eyes.

 
 
 
lib50
4.1.11  lib50  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.5    2 months ago
Putin clearly thought Clinton tried to manipulate his election.   He said so himself.

That should be our first clue it didn't happen.  He's former KGB, he knows she didn't. Just Putin propaganda.  He wanted Trump because he thought he could mess up Clinton's win by having Trump claim the election was stolen.  I don't think they expected Trump to win at first either, it was for the chaos and undermining Clinton.  Then they got Trump and it exceeded their wildest expectations.  Putin has been the biggest winner.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.12  Sparty On  replied to  nightwalker @4.1.10    2 months ago

Adjust the tin foil hat and read this:

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153

Change your mind?   No?

Oh my goodness!

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.13  Sparty On  replied to  lib50 @4.1.11    2 months ago
Putin has been the biggest winner.

Wages are up, unemployment down, personal income up, Industrial production up, etc, etc.

I think most Americans are the real winners.   Well, except for those who can't seem to get past the butthurt i suppose   

Talk about cutting off the nose to spit the face ....

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.14  author  JohnRussell  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.13    2 months ago

36. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially today than you were in 2016?

                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Better off           52%    80%    27%    54%    59%    46%    50%    61%
Worse off            21      6     35     20     16     24     19     19
SAME(VOL)            23     12     32     24     21     25     28     18
DK/NA                 4      2      7      3      4      4      3      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Better off           58%    46%    55%    48%    63%    50%    56%    30%    55%
Worse off            18     25     23     19     14     23     19     30     23
SAME(VOL)            16     27     20     30     20     25     23     27     21
DK/NA                 8      2      2      4      3      2      3     13      1

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2622

=======================================================

With the so called "greatest economy ever"  44 percent of Americans say their own personal financial situation has not improved under Trump.  That is an awful lot of people. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.15  Sparty On  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.14    2 months ago
That is an awful lot of people.

Is it?

For the first time in the modern age, i'm talking the internet age, a large percentage of the electorate is so disaffected by the POTUS who won, most of whom are simply pissed because they promised he could never win, theywill say or do nearly anything to oppose him.   Including saying they are worse off even if they are not.   This is assuming that this poll is more accurate than they were in 2016.

That said and I'm only spitballing here but i would guess nearly half (or more) of that 44% you mention is seriously afflicted with such "butt-hurt" and will say anything to "resist" Trump.   And i do mean anything.   Hard to remember a time when so many, lied so much.

For my part, my payroll check is up as is everyone of my employees, my 401k is up, we are bidding nearly double the work we were previous to Trump and capital projects in our area are booming, etc, etc.   Held money is being released at a breakneck pace by comparison.

If you're not doing better John, you are doing something wrong.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.16  author  JohnRussell  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.15    2 months ago

As I demonstrated in a seed a few days ago, someone making 12 dollars an hour will have received an average raise of .25 cents an hour in 2019. A lot of people make 12 dollars an hour or less, and a lot of people don't consider .25 an hour higher salary "doing better". Even at 18 dollars an hour the average raise only would have been .38 an hour.  This is not going to invoke a lot of Hallelujahs among people making that money. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.17  Sparty On  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.16    2 months ago

Better than a sharp stick in the eye but regardless, its attributed to Trump and as demonstrated above, some of your 44% number will bitch about it no matter how much better it is.   And make no mistake, it is better for nearly everyone.

I find it incredibly disingenuous for people to be complaining about getting more.   Again as previously demonstrated, wages are up, taxes are down, employment is up, etc, etc on the positive new and some still continue to complain.

Amazing .... just amazing!

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.18  author  JohnRussell  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.17    2 months ago

People aren't complaining about the economy, they complain because they have an asshole for a president. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.19  Sparty On  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.18    2 months ago
A lot of people make 12 dollars an hour or less, and a lot of people don't consider .25 an hour higher salary "doing better".

Get your story straight John.   Are they complaining about not doing better or not?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.20  author  JohnRussell  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.19    2 months ago

As far as I know it is possible to believe you are not doing better , AND not complain about it. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.21  Sparty On  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.20    2 months ago

Okay, so they are delighted that they aren't doing better.

Got it.

 
 
 
†hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh
4.1.22  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.21    2 months ago

Unemployment is at 2.3% in my city. No one is complaining. You have to live in a hole to not see the advantages of this economy.

Most Americans don't give a shit which assbag occupies the white house. Keep in mind everyone on this site is an obsessed partisan.

The Economy > than a nice guy in the white house.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.23  Sparty On  replied to  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh @4.1.22    2 months ago

Nothing is good enough when the butt-hurt still burns like a 1000 suns ....

 
 
 
†hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh
4.1.24  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.23    2 months ago

What is shocking is seen these people cling to the media's propaganda polling. Polling doesn't determine the outcome of elections. Not since their purpose changed. No one is watching polling since they were all wrong in 2016.

Get ready for a disappointing repeat and horrific tantrums. They've learned nothing!

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
4.1.25  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  †hε pε⊕pレε'š ƒïšh @4.1.24    2 months ago
Not since their purpose changed. No one is watching polling since they were all wrong in 2016.

The polls were actually pretty accurate and did accurately predict the popular vote. It was off by effectively about 100,000 votes across three States.

"Of the more than 120 million votes cast in the 2016 election, 107,000 votes in three states effectively decided the election"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/swing-state-margins/?noredirect=on

To claim a single anomalous outcome has completely destroyed the viability of polling data isn't just ignorant, it's laughable.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.26  Sparty On  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @4.1.25    2 months ago

I suspect its somewhere in-between.

After 2016, to not be more suspicious of polling data would be obtuse.   Many of the polling agencies themselves admitted they got it wrong.    Because they did

Personally i think the difference is many folks simply aren't telling the entire truth in polls as much.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
4.1.27  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.26    2 months ago
After 2016, to not be more suspicious of polling data would be obtuse

I've always taken polling data with a grain of salt, they're never to be used as concrete assessments and never have been. But to say they were so wrong in 2016 that they shouldn't be used as a rough gauge for which direction the general public are leaning would be silly.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.28  Sparty On  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @4.1.27    2 months ago
I've always taken polling data with a grain of salt, they're never to be used as concrete assessments

I agree completely but never to my knowledge, have so many polls, gotten it so wrong.   Not for a POTUS election anyway.   If it was really that close more polls should have leaned Trumps way but almost to a number, they did not.

Trying to characterize it differently than that is simply not a thoughtfully honest assessment.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
4.1.29  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.28    2 months ago
never to my knowledge, have so many polls, gotten it so wrong.

"The Real Clear Politics average of national polls showed Trump down by 3.3 percentage points; the New York Times still projects Trump will lose the popular vote by 0.6 points. And most of the battleground states that decided the winner of the Electoral College were pretty close to the final RCP polling average (with one big exception)."

https://www.weeklystandard.com/john-mccormack/the-presidential-polls-werent-that-far-off

So many were off by 1 to 2 points which I wouldn't characterize as a huge margin or "so wrong". Because most consistently gave Hillary the 1 to 2 point edge, it feels like they were more wrong than usual. The reality is that it's just because of a collective assumption many had of Hillary's inevitability, that most polls seemed to indicate my slight margins, that it felt so opposite of the general predictions.

 
 
 
evilgenius
4.1.30  evilgenius  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @4.1.27    2 months ago
I've always taken polling data with a grain of salt, they're never to be used as concrete assessments and never have been.

I watch the directional trend, rather than the numbers. 

 
 
 
evilgenius
4.1.31  evilgenius  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @4.1.29    2 months ago

I cautioned people in threads on old newsvine that Clinton's numbers had been trending steadily down and going into the last week were within the margin of error.

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
4.1.32  Perrie Halpern R.A.  replied to  evilgenius @4.1.31    2 months ago

I agree EG. One must watch the trends and also the quality of the polls. 

 
 
 
nightwalker
4.1.33  nightwalker  replied to  Sparty On @4.1.12    2 months ago

Yep, sure a lot of "Putin said" and "Putin said".....but he doesn't hate Clinton near as much as he loves trump. She said his election was crooked. Big deal, lots of people including Russians said that. That she was going to follow Obama's reset, but was hard line on Putin.. sounds rough on that poor humble man, then some Putin manufactured (sounded like fux) propaganda. Putin was just doing a little CYA hoping people would be put off the scent on why he wanted trump elected.

Did you expect him to say "I just couldn't let a tool like trump slip through my fingers?" He exposed a lot of his game for manipulating voters and social media and dirty tricks that he would have liked to have kept secret, but it was worth it to put trump in.

With a little advice (and perhaps forgiving a small part of the money trump owes, nothing big, $10-20 million off the $131 mill he owes) there is no greater weapon against the U.S. then trump.

 

 
 
 
bbl-1
5  bbl-1    2 months ago

Guess we will have to see if the "Lock her up" mode will work again.

As far as the Trump.  No Trump, ever, has had a pet.  Not in their nature.

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1  Texan1211  replied to  bbl-1 @5    2 months ago
As far as the Trump. No Trump, ever, has had a pet.

OMG!!! Please, STOP THE PRESSES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This just in!!! No Trump has ever had a pet--like millions and millions of other people!

Oh, NO, Mr. Bill!!!!!!!

Helllllppppppp!

 
 
 
freepress
6  freepress    2 months ago

Trump is a New York coastal elite "billionaire", who would never have a beer with ANYONE who voted for him unless they have a membership to Mar-a-Lago or a Trump club.

Talk about a "globalist", did any Trump voter making less than a million dollars a year bother to even register the fact he nad his family are a global empire in foreign hotels, golf clubs and real estate? How about all those foreign visas and illegals that have been revealed here in America who work at Trump properties?

Now we see his base finally awaken to the reality of how the tax scam hit their taxes, how the no good horrible "tariffs" have hit manufacturing and farming, and how the plan to cut insurance plans across the board into junk plans with no pre-existing coverage and the gutting of ACA. There is no "winning" here.

Anyone who still blindly supports the level of cruelty against the American people and the total incompetence of all his appointees is delusional.

How many are now in jail, about a half dozen of his closest campaign managers, lawyers and appointees.

Not to mention the number of appointees who were so corrupt and biased they could not be confirmed, and the several appointees under investigation for blatant corruption. The investigations into Trump and his family are well founded because a clear pattern of behavior has now legally been established that he 'pals around with criminals". Birds of a feather.

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
7  The Magic Eight Ball    one month ago
Mr. Forty Percent

too funny.

only about 40 percent believe trump will NOT be re-elected in 2020

scroll to bottom page 38

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/06/05/rel7c.-.trump.issues.2020.pdf

enjoy :)

 
 
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