Counties that flipped from Obama to Trump in 2016 still lag behind the rest of the country economically, according to a new study

  
Via:  krishna  •  4 months ago  •  29 comments

Counties that flipped from Obama to Trump in 2016 still lag behind the rest of the country economically, according to a new study
The gap has only grown since 2016.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


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President Donald Trump in Green Bay, Wisconsin.   SAUL LOEB/AFP/Getty Images

  • Counties that voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but flipped to President Donald Trump in 2016 still lag behind the rest of the country in several key economic indicators, a new study found.

  • Most of these counties are concentrated in the upper Midwest.

  • The study found that flipped counties currently experience slower growth both in employment rates and in rates of new businesses creation compared to safe Democratic or Republican counties.

  • The gap has only grown since 2016.

  • Trump campaigned heavily on economic issues in those areas in 2016, making ambitious promises to bring back manufacturing and other jobs that were lost to offshoring or automation.

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Krishna
1  seeder  Krishna    4 months ago

While the EIG report noted that while "places don't change overnight, and any president has limited power to reorganize local economies," Trump heavily campaigned on economic issues, making ambitious promises to bring back manufacturing and other jobs that were lost to offshoring or automation.

 
 
 
Krishna
2  seeder  Krishna    4 months ago

These new economic data are particularly noteworthy given the significant role those "flipped" counties played in deciding the 2016 election, and the importance they will hold in deciding the 2020 election as well.

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
3  The Magic Eight Ball    4 months ago

so what's the hope here?  the country as a whole is doing much better but maybe these people in a few areas will be jealous/feel left out and fuk over the entire country by supporting a democrat for president again because their local govts are holding them back? 

  that is very thin... LOL

jrSmiley_91_smiley_image.gif

as local issues require local solutions. they are much more likely to toss their local politicians out the door.

 
 
 
Krishna
3.1  seeder  Krishna  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @3    4 months ago

I've read numerous analysis of the 2016 election outcome-- often going into great depth as to what went on in every state. But the important thing to understand in analyzing the results is what happened in only a few states-- those that had gone to Obama but in 2016 went for Trump. And IIRC, most (if not all?) were states where lots of manufacturing jobs had been lost due to factory closings.

In those states, lifelong Democrats and even lifelong union members had lost their jobs due to factory closings and for the first time in their lives decided to vote Republican on Trump's promises to bring jobs back to America-- and promises to re-open those factories. The degree to which he's succeeded so farin a few mostly "Rust Belt States" will probably determine the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
3.1.1  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  Krishna @3.1    4 months ago
and promises to re-open those factories.

everyone knows the feds can only create a friendly environment for business on a national level. if local/state politicians cannot keep up and only hold that business back, people do not blame the feds or the president.

any analysis saying people blame a president for their local/state politician's failures is pure crap. most people are much smarter than that.

 
 
 
Krishna
3.1.2  seeder  Krishna  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @3.1.1    4 months ago
if local/state politicians hold that business back, people do not blame the feds or the president.

So how come whenever the economy improves Trump takes credit?

(Why doesn't he realize that its the local politicians who are making it happen?)

 
 
 
Krishna
3.1.3  seeder  Krishna  replied to  Krishna @3.1.2    4 months ago

Actually whenever the economy improvers, Trump takers credit-- he doesn't give credit to "local politicians".

But when things go bad, he shifts the balme-- to Hillary, Obama, and of course to "the Fed".

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
3.1.4  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  Krishna @3.1.2    4 months ago
So how come whenever the economy improves Trump takes credit?

he is talking about a national economy while this article is talking about a few local economies.

(Why doesn't he realize that its the local politicians who are making it happen?)

they could not have done much without change at the federal level and the local politicians who make it happen in those states will get credit in their states as well and those local politicians will thank trump for that also.

but this article is talking about local politicians who fail to deliver and not those who get it done.

people do not blame the president because they have idiots running their states, cities, and counties.

 
 
 
Krishna
3.1.5  seeder  Krishna  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @3.1.4    4 months ago

Lifelong Democratic union members in the Rustbelt states suddenly lost their jobs when their factories closed. So for the first time in their lives they voted for a republican president.

(If they had blamed local Dem politicians for the factory closings, trump wouldn't have won. But they blamed Obama-- and the federal gov't). 

Otherwise they would've voted out the local pols-- but remained Dem voters in the presidentuial election-- and Hillary would've won!

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
3.1.6  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  Krishna @3.1.5    4 months ago
(If they had blamed local Dem politicians for the factory closings, trump wouldn't have won. But they blamed Obama-- and the federal gov't). 

  and they also know their states and local govts are part of the same problem.  

how stupid do you think people are?

ya think people will blame trump because AOC killed jobs in her state?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/2019/02/18/aoc_kills_jobs_middle_america_would_love_to_have_466444.html

that's trump fault right?   LOL  

fact:   trump delivered and local politician named AOC killed the promise made by trump

people know whats going on here..

like I said.... local issues, require local solutions..

do not look for the likes of aoc to be around long.

local politicians who cannot keep up or stand in trumps way?  will be going away soon enough. the voters will have their asses/

 
 
 
dennis smith
3.1.7  dennis smith  replied to  Krishna @3.1.5    4 months ago

Those lifelong union members who followed the union leaders like sheep and kept voting for Democrats finally saw the light and decided to vote for the better candidate. 

 
 
 
FLYNAVY1
3.1.8  FLYNAVY1  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @3.1.1    4 months ago

If people were honest with themselves they would realize that there is little "A" government (fed or local) is going to do to bring back manufacturing jobs.  The push for low cost productivity gains shifted American manufacturers first to automated systems in the 1980s and 1990s, then out of country to places like China and Mexico starting in the 2000s.  From 2000 to 2008 the US lost 5.8 million manufacturing jobs.  It wasn't taxes that took the jobs offshore, it's was hourly pay and worker health insurance costs. 

I've installed over 200 robots and automated systems in the last 30 years, and I saw this coming.  Every robot I installed on a manufacturing line eliminated at a minimum three jobs.  Just think it through and you'll realize these jobs ain't coming back folks!

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
3.1.9  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3.1.8    4 months ago
then out of country to places like China and Mexico starting in the 2000s.

yepp, the globalists were killing us softly by shipping jobs/whole industries overseas.

however,  now that globalism is in the proverbial trashcan. we are moving those jobs back to this country.

and you'll realize these jobs ain't coming back folks!

try again.   we have heard all that BS before.

fact: anything the globalists have done in the past.... can, and is being undone today.

2018 Saw Largest Increase in Manufacturing Jobs in 21 Years

https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/2018-saw-largest-increase-manufacturing-jobs-21-years

 

512

 
 
 
Tessylo
3.1.10  Tessylo  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @3.1.9    4 months ago

But this 'president' isn't bringing the jobs back.

Another nonsense meme.  

 
 
 
Tessylo
3.1.11  Tessylo  replied to  The Magic Eight Ball @3.1.6    4 months ago
'local politicians who cannot keep up or stand in trumps way?  will be going away soon enough. the voters will have their asses'

That's just crazy talk.  Batshit crazy talk.  

 
 
 
katrix
3.1.12  katrix  replied to  FLYNAVY1 @3.1.8    4 months ago

Not to mention, Trump can't bring coal back, and neither can anyone else. Natural gas is cheaper, among other things.

Hillary was right about what she said, but the way she worded it was horrible. 

I just read an article about the Levittown riots during the gas shortage in the '70s; the author made a case that it was a precursor for the dissatisfaction that led to Trump's being elected. I didn't seed it because 1) it was in the Washington Post and I think they have a paywall; and 2) I wouldn't be able to moderate it, and moderation would probably be necessary on that seed.

 
 
 
Krishna
5  seeder  Krishna    4 months ago
(deleted)
 
 
 
Nerm_L
6  Nerm_L    4 months ago

The most significant message is that counties that flipped still lag behind.  Democrats didn't pay any attention to these lagging counties last election; Democrats focused attention on parts of the country that weren't lagging behind.  At least Trump showed up.

A broken promise is still better than being completely ignored.  

 
 
 
PJ
6.1  PJ  replied to  Nerm_L @6    4 months ago
At least Trump showed up. A broken promise is still better than being completely ignored.  

Hmmmmm.......I think I've heard something similar to this before...... He hits me because he loves me.  jrSmiley_78_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Nerm_L
6.1.1  Nerm_L  replied to  PJ @6.1    4 months ago
Hmmmmm.......I think I've heard something similar to this before...... He hits me because he loves me.

The counties that flipped were lagging before the election that Trump won.  The recovery from the last recession was not uniform or equitable; these counties were simply ignored to avoid acknowledging the political bias imposed upon the economic recovery.  Democrats have focused their attention on parts of the country that they especially favored during the economic recovery. 

Democrats have written off these lagging parts of the country by characterizing them as 'less intelligent', 'too stupid to know what's best', or, more succinctly, as 'deplorable'.  When the Democratic candidate declares there is no hope for regions of the country, the jobs won't be coming back, and the regional culture and heritage is wrong headed, then Democrats aren't going to fare well in elections.  And I'm talking about Minnesota, not Alabama.

List of rallies for the 2016 Donald Trump presidential campaign - Wikipedia

Like it or not, Trump campaigned across the country right up to election day.  Trump held rallies for as few as 300 people.  Trump showed up.  Where was the Democratic candidate?

  

 
 
 
PJ
6.1.2  PJ  replied to  Nerm_L @6.1.1    4 months ago

You're telling me they would prefer someone who shows up and spews hatred, racism, misogynistic views and corruption over someone with actual policy views?  If people can't read and educate themselves on the issues of each candidate and would rather accept any ole' idiot as long as they show up then those voters are pretty stupid. 

Candidates shouldn't have to go to every corner of America for Americans to be able to understand what policies and positions the candidate is for.   

[Removed]

When someone shows you who they are......believe them.  [Removed]

 
 
 
Nerm_L
6.1.3  Nerm_L  replied to  PJ @6.1.2    4 months ago
You're telling me they would prefer someone who shows up and spews hatred, racism, misogynistic views and corruption over someone with actual policy views?  If people can't read and educate themselves on the issues of each candidate and would rather accept any ole' idiot as long as they show up then those voters are pretty stupid. 

I did not vote for Trump.  But I did not vote for Clinton, either.  If the Democratic candidate adopts the arrogant attitude that voters must come to the candidate then Trump stands a better chance of being reelected.  Trump hasn't stopped campaigning and holding rallies so he already has a head start.

Candidates are not entitled to become President.  The candidates have to show voters they are important; that the candidate needs their vote.  That's been the case in American politics for a very long time.  That's how Truman beat Dewey; Trump isn't the first to beat the odds by going out and mingling with the voters.

 
 
 
PJ
6.1.4  PJ  replied to  Nerm_L @6.1.3    4 months ago
Trump isn't the first to beat the odds by going out and mingling with the voters

Mingling?  lol 

Is that what you guys are calling racist rallies these days.  

I don't care who you voted for.  I just care that you defend this President.  That tells me all I need to know about what kind of person you are. 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
6.1.5  JohnRussell  replied to  Nerm_L @6.1.3    4 months ago

Nerm, Trump's pathological lying doesnt seem ever to trouble you. What is the explanation for that? 

 
 
 
Tessylo
6.1.6  Tessylo  replied to  PJ @6.1.4    4 months ago

My thoughts exactly PJ

 
 
 
Nerm_L
6.1.7  Nerm_L  replied to  JohnRussell @6.1.5    4 months ago
Nerm, Trump's pathological lying doesnt seem ever to trouble you. What is the explanation for that? 

There are important issues and then there are political issues.  Political issues aren't that important.  Politicians are professional political liars regardless of party affiliation.

How does Trump's stance on free trade contrast with Democrats?  How does Trump's stance on regime change contrast with Democrats?  How does Trump's stance on economics contrast with Democrats?  How does Trump's stance on illegal immigration contrast with Democrats?  And how do those Trump stances contrast with status quo Republicans?

I didn't vote for Trump and won't next time either.  But I disagree more often with Pelosi and Schumer on the real issues; their attention is focused on political issues that are unimportant.

A Congress that favors free trade, favors the financial sector, favors regime change, favors NIMBY regulation, favors globalization, ad nauseam, simply ain't progressive.  And politicians who support that status quo and claim to be progressive are liars, no better than Trump.

 
 
 
Tessylo
7  Tessylo    4 months ago

'At least Trump showed up.

A broken promise is still better than being completely ignored.'  jrSmiley_88_smiley_image.gif   

Nothing but broken promises from this turd and lies, lies, and more lies.  

 
 
 
PJ
8  PJ    4 months ago

They clearly lag behind the country in intelligence and common sense also. 

 
 
 
freepress
9  freepress    4 months ago

I don't know how ANYONE with an ounce of common sense could have believed an East Coast elitist that lives in a gold plated penthouse apartment in New York City with a global empire of golf courses and hotels ever cared for them.

Trump is everything and I mean EVERYTHING these voters say they hate. The only thing they embrace is his so called political incorrectness which is nothing more than hatred of women, people of color and the poor.

These voters are willing to stand back and allow a man like him who cares nothing for them at all, while he destroys healthcare, destroys protection for pre-existing health conditions, to destroy their way of life by handing out tax cuts to billionaires, enact tariffs that hurt farmers and workers, and to destroy the rule of law.

All of this just so this one group of voters who are less than 40 percent of actual voters, can own the "libs". 

Truly unbelievable.

 
 
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