The Trump economy vs. the Obama economy in 15 charts

  
Via:  john-russell  •  one month ago  •  69 comments

The Trump economy vs. the Obama economy in 15 charts
a closer look at the data shows a mixed picture in terms of whether the economy is any better than it was in Obama’s final years. The economy is growing at about the same pace as it did in Obama’s last years, and unemployment, whilelower under Trump, has continued a trend that began in 2011.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



The Trump economy vs. the Obama economy in 15 charts





























Is a recession coming in 2020 or 2021? Experts continue to  debate the conflicting signals , but an equally telling question might be: How does the “Trump economy” compare to Barack Obama’s?

President Trump constantly refers to the economy as “strong,” “terrific” and the “ greatest in the history of our country ,” but a closer look at the data shows a mixed picture in terms of whether the economy is any better than it was in Obama’s final years. The economy is growing at about the same pace as it did in Obama’s last years, and unemployment, while lower under Trump , has continued a trend that began in 2011.

The best case Trump can make for improvement since he took office is  higher wages . The typical American worker’s pay is finally growing more than 3 percent a year, a level not seen since before the Great Recession. Similarly, consumer and business confidence surged after Trump’s election and has remained high, and manufacturing output ( and jobs ) also saw a noticeable jump in 2018 after Trump’s tax cut, although  manufacturing is now struggling . There’s also been a drop in the number of Americans on food stamps.


But in other areas Trump’s record does not look as rosy.  Government debt  and the  trade deficit are climbing  (while most economists don’t worry about the rising trade deficit, Trump made it a central part of his 2016 election campaign), and  business investment is faltering  as corporate leaders say they are  wary of Trump’s trade war . The number of Americans lacking health insurance is also ticking up slightly.

As for two of Trump’s favorite metrics — stocks and jobs — there is a case to be made that those looked better under Obama, although most economists expected job gains to slow now that the economic recovery is a decade old.

Presidents have only so much control over the economy, but how voters perceive economic conditions and their personal finances can play a key role in how they vote. Lately, Republicans and many wealthy voters rate this economy as  the best since the 1990s boom , while Democrats and many lower-income voters are less enthusiastic.


Here’s a look at the Trump economy vs. the Obama economy in 15 charts.

1. Job gains.  The U.S. economy typically added more than 250,000 jobs each month in 2014 and 227,000 a month in 2015. Trump has not been able to top that yet, but experts say job growth remains surprisingly robust, especially given how many baby boomers are retiring and how many business owners complain that they can’t find any more workers.


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(Heather Long)

2. Unemployment rate.  The nation’s unemployment rate is at a half-century low, a source of pride for Trump. But many economists have pointed out that the rate has been falling steadily since 2011, making it difficult to see much difference after Trump took office.


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(Heather Long)

3. Growth.  After a painful 2009, the economy has been growing for a decade. In the early years of the recovery, growth was lackluster, but it started to pick up in 2014 and 2015. Trump told America he could do even better as president, but his record so far looks similar to Obama’s final few years in office. His tax cut and deregulatory push boosted growth in 2018, but that appears to be fading as business owners grow concerned about the trade war.


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(Heather Long)

4. Middle-class income.  Most Americans saw a noticeable decline in their income during the Great Recession, and it took years for wages to recover. In 2017, a typical middle-class family finally saw their income  climb above where it was in 1999 . Data for 2018 will be released in September. Incomes have been rising steadily in recent years as more Americans get jobs.


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(Heather Long)

5. Stock market.  The Dow Jones industrial average was up 46 percent at this point in Obama’s presidency vs. 25 percent for Trump. Stocks soared under Obama, and he ended his White House tenure with one of the best gains of any president in modern history. Trump started out with a lot of love from Wall Street as well, especially with his tax cut, but stocks have moved sideways since he began his trade war.


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(Heather Long)

6. Food stamps.  About 1 out of 7 Americans received food stamps (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) in 2013 in the aftermath of the Great Recession, as people struggled to find good-paying jobs again. The numbers came down slightly under Obama, and the decline has accelerated under Trump as more Americans have obtained jobs and the requirements to remain on food stamps have tightened.


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(Heather Long)

7. Manufacturing.  Trump campaigned heavily on reviving blue-collar industries and jobs. While service-sector jobs in health care, technology and hospitality rebounded quickly after the Great Recession, manufacturing did not. Trump’s tax cuts helped boost manufacturing in 2018 (blue-collar job growth hit the  fastest pace since the early 1980s ), but the president’s tariffs have since taken a toll, sending manufacturing  into a “technical recession” in 2019.


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(Heather Long)

8. Home prices.  The housing market was at the heart of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, and many Americans lost their homes or watched the value of their homes plummet. Home prices bounced back at the end of Obama’s term and have continued a steady climb under Trump.


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(Heather Long)

9. Gas prices.  Americans keep a close eye on gas prices and tend to get nervous when gas climbs above $3 a gallon nationally, but for much of Obama’s second term and Trump’s first term, gas prices have remained under that key threshold.


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(Heather Long)

10. Federal debt.  The national debt swelled under Obama as the federal government spent money to try to rebuild the economy after the Great Recession. At the end of Obama’s term, the annual deficit had declined considerably, but it has since jumped up again under Trump because of his tax cut and increased government spending.


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(Heather Long)

11. Wages.  For much of Obama’s time in office, wages remained subdued, and his economic team cited lackluster wager gains as the  “unfinished business”  of his presidency. Under Trump, average hourly pay has climbed and is now growing more than 3 percent a year for the first time in more than a decade. There’s debate about how much credit Trump deserves for this, but his tax cuts and the jump in business optimism probably played a role. Concern is rising, however, that wage growth is stalling in 2019.


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(Heather Long)

12. Consumer confidence.  Confidence in the economy has jumped since Trump’s election. This is an area where there has been a clear break from Obama, although experts debate how much of a difference it has made. Normally when confidence rises, businesses and consumers spend more, but that hasn’t been the case, especially for businesses. Still, high confidence is probably playing a role in keeping the United States out of a recession,  even as other parts of the world falter .


13. Trade deficit.  The United States has purchased more from overseas than it has sold abroad for years, a situation known as a trade deficit. The trade deficit declined during the Great Recession but has since expanded, which is typically a sign that the U.S. economy is growing robustly. Trump campaigned on bringing the trade deficit down, but instead, it has grown during his tenure.


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(Heather Long)

14. Uninsured Americans.  One of Obama’s key policy goals was to get more Americans health insurance. The number of people without health insurance fell noticeably during his tenure after the passage of the Affordable Care Act.  Progress has since stalled under Trump , who attempted (unsuccessfully) to repeal Obamacare.



(Heather Long)

15. Business investment.  Trump and his advisers said the goal of the GOP tax cuts was to encourage businesses to spend and invest more in new equipment and factories, which would then help boost the economy in years to come. While there was a slight bounce in business spending in early 2018, it has since plunged (even  turning negative in the spring of 2019 ), largely because of the trade war.


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(Heather Long)

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JohnRussell
1  seeder  JohnRussell    one month ago

This array of information is a real eye opener after listening to Trump propaganda for 3 years.  In almost every one of these categories the current economy has just built on what has been in motion and already happening over the last 3 or 4 years of the Obama administration. 

You've been bamboozled. 

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
1.1  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one month ago
You've been bamboozled. 

The numbers don't lie, that's apparently the job of virtually every Obama hater these days. It really is incredible to me to hear the anger with which they demonize Obama and claim everything sucked when he was President but when you look at the actual numbers one has to wonder where this bitter hate comes from, because its certainly not his performance which was quite good by virtually every metric.

 
 
 
WallyW
1.2  WallyW  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one month ago

There is nothing in those charts to suggest a recession is just around the corner.

Some wise person said all politics is local, and people pretty much vote according to their personal situation rather than on the issues

 
 
 
Sparty On
2  Sparty On    one month ago

Nah, you're the one who's trying to bamboozle John.   That or you're the bamboozled one.

Obama's stats come from modern times lows/highs after the great recession so adding jobs, raising GDP, lowering unemployment, etc, etc from near all time lows/highs was easy by comparison.

Trumps increases/decreases come a lot tougher from a much better economy and negative qualitative easing.   Yours is a ridiculous comparison in that regard.

Not sure if you're trying to fool or you are the fool but you aren't fooling anyone with a modicum of thoughtfulness with this disingenuous tripe.   Not a one.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
2.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  Sparty On @2    one month ago

Trump has kept the economic progress that was well under way under Obama going at roughly the same rates as Obama was doing. These charts make that essentially indisputable. 

If Obama was still president today would you be giving him kudos for the past three years ( I doubt it) even though he had kept the economy growing (2017-2019)? 

The fact is the past three years have impressed you simply because the braggart Trump is in office. If a Democrat was president right now with the exact same stats you would say "whats the big deal?" this is just a continuation of what has been happening for years.

No, you and your fellow Trump supporters are the bamboozled ones. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
2.1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    one month ago
Trump has kept the economic progress that was well under way under Obama going at roughly the same rates as Obama was doing.

But Trump is doing that without trillions of dollars of 'stimulus spending' and without the assistance of the FED holding interest rates at near zero and pumping 85 billion a month into the money market to further stimulate it.

Hell, a one brain cell shy of having a full pair moron couldn't lose with help like that pushing.

 
 
 
Tessylo
2.1.2  Tessylo  replied to  XDm9mm @2.1.1    one month ago

So you admit the 'president' is a useless fucking moron?  

True dat

 
 
 
Jack_TX
2.1.3  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    one month ago
Trump has kept the economic progress that was well under way under Obama going at roughly the same rates as Obama was doing.

So he didn't fuck it all up after all.  Excellent.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
2.1.4  XDm9mm  replied to  Tessylo @2.1.2    one month ago
So you admit the 'president' is a useless fucking moron?   True dat

Oh, if you didn't understand fully, I was comparing the Trump gains with NO help to the Obama gains with "help like that pushing".

 
 
 
bugsy
2.1.5  bugsy  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    one month ago
Trump has kept the economic progress that was well under way under Obama going at roughly the same rates as Obama was doing

Wait..wait...wait...liberals and especially the idiot Krugman swore the economy would dive into a recession the minute Trump was elected. 

So far, Trumps economy is performing far stronger than anything Obama could have dreamed of. 

Once again, liberals were wrong.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
2.1.6  XDm9mm  replied to  bugsy @2.1.5    one month ago
Krugman swore the economy would dive into a recession the minute Trump was elected

Didn't he claim a depression and not a recession?

 
 
 
bugsy
2.1.7  bugsy  replied to  XDm9mm @2.1.6    one month ago

He did...my apologies

 
 
 
Willjay9
2.1.8  Willjay9  replied to  XDm9mm @2.1.1    one month ago

All that endes in 2015 and the chart showes his numbers still increased! So what else you got!

 
 
 
Willjay9
2.1.9  Willjay9  replied to  Jack_TX @2.1.3    one month ago

Boy that bar just keeps getring lower and lower!jrSmiley_78_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.1.10  Sparty On  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    one month ago

Wrong John.  

Trump has had none of the MAJOR economic stimulus and easing that Obama had.   Fed rate decreased to zero for most of his tenure, massive qualitative easing. etc.

Try to bullshit someone who doesn't know better.

Your attempts to obfuscate the facts in this case are almost childlike in nature.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
2.1.11  Bob Nelson  replied to  Sparty On @2.1.10    one month ago
Trump has had none of the MAJOR economic stimulus and easing that Obama had.

The GOP has passed one single significant piece of legislation: the massive tax break for corporations, with the explicit intent of inciting investment. Two trillion dollars over ten years.

... in an economy that was already humming...

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.1.12  Sparty On  replied to  Bob Nelson @2.1.11    one month ago
The GOP has passed one single significant piece of legislation: the massive tax break for corporations, with the explicit intent of inciting investment. Two trillion dollars over ten years.

That wasn't major.   It was chump change by comparison from an economic standpoint.   Not even close the value spent and dollar benefit of Quantitative Easing and years of a 0 % Fed rate but by all means.   Keep ignoring those facts.   It is very telling of your usual narrative for those who aren't familiar with it.

... in an economy that was already humming...

Not like it is now .....

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
2.1.13  Bob Nelson  replied to  Sparty On @2.1.12    one month ago

Have a nice life...

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.1.14  Sparty On  replied to  Bob Nelson @2.1.13    one month ago

Thx buddy i will try.

Thanks again ..... you're the best!

 
 
 
Jack_TX
2.1.15  Jack_TX  replied to  Sparty On @2.1.12    one month ago
It was chump change by comparison from an economic standpoint.

Fed policy accounted for two trillion every 24 months during most of the Obama years.

It's worth noting that QE contributes heavily to economic disparity.  

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/20/kyle-bass-says-us-interest-rates-will-follow-the-rest-of-the-world-to-zero-this-is-insane.html

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.1.16  Sparty On  replied to  Jack_TX @2.1.15    one month ago

An inconvenient truth for some here .....

 
 
 
JohnRussell
2.2  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  Sparty On @2    one month ago

Trump has pretty endlessly cried about the trade deficit (that previous presidents "allowed" to happen.)   But under Trump the trade deficit has only grown.  I guess you would agree he is failing then?

62HMEDKJ6RFLPNDAIIAJHRTOGY.jpg

 
 
 
XDm9mm
2.2.1  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @2.2    one month ago
Trump has pretty endlessly cried about the trade deficit (that previous presidents "allowed" to happen.)   

Yes he rails about what previous Presidents allowed to happen.  It was not the trade deficits themselves, but the underlying reasons for those deficits.  The underlying reasons were pathetic trade deals that those former Presidents agreed to that did nothing for the American worker other than hurt them.  NAFTA ring a bell?  I remember a former Presidential candidate speaking about a giant sucking sound related to jobs disappearing due to that agreement.  Guess what, Ross Perot was right.

But under Trump the trade deficit has only grown.  I guess you would agree he is failing then?

Actually, to a point he has.  But there are two ways to view that deficit.  One is that the American consumer apparently has great confidence in the economy, (which is indicated in another point in the article, but you didn't use) and has extra money in their pocket to spend thanks to lower taxes being extorted from them.  The flip side of that coin is that we are still repatriating jobs and manufacturing here.  But it will take time.

Personally, I by American made products as much as is possible.  Very honestly, the only item I'm currently wearing that is imported is my  watch.  My old American made watches are only worn when going to various functions.  My home is furnished with all American made furniture, my appliances are all American made (with the exception of my TV's) so, yes, I do put my money where my mouth is.

I haven't read this entire article, but here's a link to a MSN site that lists 41 American made clothing brands if anyone is interested.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/41-clothing-brands-that-are-still-made-in-america/ss-BBQAYHB?li=BBnbfcN&ocid=BHEA000

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
2.3  Bob Nelson  replied to  Sparty On @2    one month ago
Obama's stats come from modern times lows/highs

Wrong.

The charts show the Bush-era collapse. They show the economic dive that began under Bush and was corrected under Obama. (Please note that I am not saying "by Bush" or "by Obama".)

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.3.1  Sparty On  replied to  Bob Nelson @2.3    one month ago

As noted, the charts clearly show Obama had nowhere to go but up.   With that, FED rate reductions and serious qualitative easing, he couldn't lose.   Trump has had none of those economic advantages but the economy advanced anyway.   Any Freshman Econ major can see that.

As to the fall.   There is plenty of blame to go around on both sides of the aisle.   Blaming Bush only is not being intellectually honest.

Disingenuous as usual i see Bob.   Nice to see that some things never change.

 
 
 
Ronin2
2.3.2  Ronin2  replied to  Bob Nelson @2.3    one month ago

This is all you need to know about Obama's economy.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2012/08/01/obama-wins-the-gold-for-worst-economic-recovery-ever/

https://money.cnn.com/2016/10/05/news/economy/us-recovery-slowest-since-wwii/index.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-the-obama-recovery-took-so-long-1536619545

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/01/06/the-obama-recovery-has-been-weakest-ever-should-have-been-strongest/aOpf5ZO3ToyQlBUl1mb5pI/story.html

Google it, you can find many, many, more stating the exact same damn thing- that Obama oversaw the slowest recovery from recession since WWII.

The left is frantically trying to claim that this is still Obama's economy; which is complete and utter BS.  At the same time cheering on a recession as frantically as they can.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
2.3.3  Bob Nelson  replied to  Ronin2 @2.3.2    one month ago
Obama oversaw

Fundamental error. Obama didn't run the economy, any more than Trump does now.

A President's control of the economy is modest. Thank God! The idea of Donald Trump running America's economy is terrifying.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
2.3.4  Jack_TX  replied to  Bob Nelson @2.3.3    one month ago
Fundamental error. Obama didn't run the economy, any more than Trump does now.

This.  I find it frustrating that more people do not understand this fairly obvious fundamental truth.

A President's control of the economy is modest.

Exceedingly modest.  Bordering on full impotence.

Thank God! The idea of Donald Trump running America's economy is terrifying

Pretty much, yeah.  The prospect of Sanders or Warren controlling the economy is similarly terrifying.  Biden, Beto, Pete....not so much.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
3  seeder  JohnRussell    one month ago

At times, Trump has bragged and bragged and bragged about how GDP would skyrocket under him.    Obama's last three years of GDP growth were 2.9, 2.5, and 1.6. Trump's first three years are 2.9, 2.4, and 2.1.      Very little difference.    Get over yourself Trump. 

JGE2VMLMVJHGHO6MAIYS6RJOVY.jpg

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4  seeder  JohnRussell    one month ago

It wouldnt be so bad if Trump were a decent human being who took credit where it is his, and gave credit where it belongs to others. But that is not at all what Trump does. He wants ALL the credit for the economy and actually says that his predecessor administrations efforts were worthless. The charts dont show him right. 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
4.1  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @4    one month ago
He wants ALL the credit

Why do you care what he wants?  

 
 
 
Tacos!
4.2  Tacos!  replied to  JohnRussell @4    one month ago
It wouldnt be so bad if Trump were a decent human being who took credit where it is his, and gave credit where it belongs to others.

What president did that? It sure wasn't Obama. I agree it would be nice if people did that, but hardly anyone in politics does that ever.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5  XDm9mm    one month ago

This chart essentially says it all...

4FXUPKFN4BCUDHORAXUS2JA7WE.jpg

While there were great strides bringing us out of the recession Obama entered office with, there were no Obama 'policies' that could remotely be credited with that heavy haul out.

Obama was the beneficiary of trillions of dollars of taxpayer funded stimulus spending, most of which was approved and appropriated albeit not spent before he even took the oath of office.

Trump did not have that.

Obama was the beneficiary of the FED holding interest rates at near zero percent for the vast majority of his time in office.

Trump did not have that.  In point of fact, Trump entered office with rising interest rates, which traditionally stymies and slows growth.

Obama was the beneficiary of the FED pumping 85 billion dollars into the market system to buoy and hold the markets stable until they regained a foothold of their own.

Trump did not have that.

The FED actions are quite evident in the chart above.  'Market valuation' went from 7,949 to 18,333 during the eight years of the Obama Presidency for a gain of 10,384.  However that 18,333 was reached roughly May of 2015 which roughly equates with the ending of the FEDs Quantitative Easing.  It bounced up and down until November 2016.

On the election of Donald Trump (not even having taken the oath of office yet) the market reacted very positively to the promise of lower taxes and reduced regulations.  That reaction took the market from the noted above 18,333 in November 2016 to 25,886 in August 2019.  A gain of 7553 points in 33 months as opposed to the Obama gain of 10,384 in 96 months.  If you extrapolate Trump market valuations by historical data from the start of his Presidency, you should see total market gains in the area of 21,000 for a full eight years of a Trump Presidency.   Effectively double what was realized under Obama.

Believe what you want, but the charts and the numbers actually do tell the whole story.  

 
 
 
JohnRussell
5.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  XDm9mm @5    one month ago

On Feb 05, 2018, the Dow Jones was at 26,568, at the time the high point of the Trump presidency.   As of yesterday it was 25,925.   In other words 600 pts lower than it was 19 months ago. So for well over half of Trumps first term the market has been ultimately stagnant. 

chart

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1    one month ago
As of yesterday it was 25,925.   In other words 600 pts lower than it was 19 months ago. So for well over half of Trumps first term the market has been ultimately stagnant.

It's still higher and even if it simply keeps the average daily gain it will effectively double what it did under Obama.  Deal with it JR.  The numbers don't lie.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
5.1.2  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.1    one month ago

The charts make it obvious that , in almost every category, Trump's economy has been the natural progression of where the economy was headed under Obama.  That is actually the point of the seeded article.  You can spin and spin but people can see who the blowhard is (it's Trump). 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.3  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.2    one month ago
You can spin and spin but people can see who the blowhard is

JR....  I'm not spinning.   The 'author' of the article is.

NOWHERE is there any indication of ANY Obama policy.

NOWHERE is there any indication of the HELP OBAMA was getting.

Without the federal stimulus funds, without the FED pumping 85 billion a month into the system, without the FED holding rates at near zero percent interest, essentially providing free loans, Obama would have left office with the economy basically in the same condition as when he took office.  OBAMA had no policy other than trying to regulate American industry out of business.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
5.1.4  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.2    one month ago

Sure John. Just like democrats credit George h.w. Bush for the Clinton Economy. After all, the economy grew 4.8 percent in his last quarter in office. 

Your argument is so obviously transparent and partisan that it’s pointless. 

 
 
 
JohnRussell
5.1.5  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  Sean Treacy @5.1.4    one month ago

Trump says, incessantly, that the country and the economy were going totally down the tubes until he came along.  That is just a lie, based on these charts and other things we know. Face it Sean, you support a pathological liar. 

Even Trumps ballyhooed wage hikes dont amount to much. Wage growth year to year is up about a half a percent compared to Obamas last year.  For someone making 50,000 a year, a little below the median, that amounts to about 250 dollars more per year as compared to the wage increases they would have anticipated using the Obama numbers.  That isnt even enough to cover what the Trump tarrifs will cost the average household. 

 
 
 
Jack_TX
5.1.6  Jack_TX  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.5    one month ago
Trump says, incessantly, that the country and the economy were going totally down the tubes until he came along.

I'm curious.  

If you understand that most of what Trump says is unlikely to be true, explain how you let it wind you up. 

I can't stand Bernie Sanders and he lies all the time, too.  But I don't react like he's driving a railroad spike up my ass with a sledgehammer every time he speaks.  I've come to realize that Bernie makes his living pandering to his morons, so I roll my eyes and move on.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.7  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.5    one month ago
Even Trumps ballyhooed wage hikes dont amount to much.

Tell that to the people who got them and are thankful they did.  I feel certain they don't feel your disdain for Trumps efforts.

That isnt even enough to cover what the Trump tarrifs will cost the average household.

We continually heard from people like Krugman and by extension, you, that prices would skyrocket and our standard of living would suffer.   It's funny, but prices have remained relatively stable for most consumer products.  I still pay less than $2.50 for a gallon of gas, 38 cents per pound for bananas, the same for almost all produce, and clothes.  I'm contemplating buying a new car, but haven't narrowed it down to specific model yet, but it will be in the GM stable of brands, probably a Cadillac.   My neighbor just replaced his Toyota Tacoma with a Toyota tundra, the guy on the other side of me, ditched the 2019 Volvo he had and got I think it's a Nissan Zero(all electric car?), so where are those tariffs JR?    I'll submit that any tariffs are being absorbed by the importers themselves.  It's much easier to take a small hit to the bottom line than it is to lose customers and then try to bring them back.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
5.1.8  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @5.1.5    one month ago

 

If you correct people who credit Clinton for the mid 90's economy and claim Clinton just coasted on the economy Bush built, I'll take you seriously on this. But neither you, nor any other progressive who makes that argument about Trump, do that. 

 
 
 
Tacos!
5.1.9  Tacos!  replied to  Jack_TX @5.1.6    one month ago

That is really very sensible and healthy. Well said.

 
 
 
Tacos!
5.1.10  Tacos!  replied to  XDm9mm @5.1.7    one month ago
I still pay less than $2.50 for a gallon of gas

I know I shouldn't envy others their good fortune, but I live in California and it just burns me to see people talk about $2.50 for gas. I haven't seen gas go below about $3.40 or $3.50 in . . . I can't remember when. And that's cheap around here. Usually, it's much closer to 4 bucks.

 
 
 
Jack_TX
5.2  Jack_TX  replied to  XDm9mm @5    one month ago
Obama was the beneficiary of the FED pumping 85 billion dollars into the market system to buoy and hold the markets stable until they regained a foothold of their own.

It was about $85 billion per month for a long time. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.2.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Jack_TX @5.2    one month ago
It was about $85 billion per month for a long time. 

It formally ended October 2014.  But, it continued shortly after that simply as a matter of finalizing purchase obligations previously made.  I believe those obligations ended in February 2015.  So about four months of buys to close shop.

 
 
 
Split Personality
5.2.2  Split Personality  replied to  XDm9mm @5.2.1    one month ago

And yet since April 2019 Trump has been asking for a 1% decrease in the the Fed rate and he wants quantitative easing too.

What was once abhorrent, now seems like a good idea (again).

What changed if we're in boom times ?

The US central bank should consider cutting interest rates by one percentage point and introduce "some quantitative easing" stimulus measures, president Donald Trump has said.

In a Twitter post he again complained about a strong dollar, which "is sadly hurting other parts of the world".

The remarks came hours after the president said the US economy is not falling into a recession.

The economy is doing "tremendously well", he said.

Mr Trump has posted a series of critical tweets in recent months aimed at the Federal Reserve and its chief Jerome Powell. Last week the president called him "clueless" for not cutting rates sooner.

A US-China trade war, gloomy economic data from Germany, and uncertainties over the UK's exit from the European Union have unsettled share markets.

There are also worries that the bond markets are flashing recession signals. It is now cheaper for the US government to borrow for 10 years rather than two - an indication that lenders fear short-term economic risks have increased.

End of Twitter post by @realDonaldTrumpMr Trump's suggestion on Monday that the Fed should consider a return to its crisis-era money-printing programme comes despite him insisting a day earlier that the US economy was in good health.

"I don't think we're having a recession," the president said. "We're doing tremendously well, our consumers are rich, I gave a tremendous tax cut, and they're loaded up with money".

He pointed to last week's healthy profits from Walmart, the US retailer often described as the world's biggest, and pointed to a strong performance from US consumers.

'QE not the answer'

"Most economists actually say we are not going to have a recession. Most of them are saying we will not have a recession, but the rest of the world is not doing well like we are doing."

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow also said on Sunday there was "no recession in sight", telling Fox News Sunday: "Consumers are working. Their wages are rising. They are spending and they are saving."

Fed member Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve Bank, warned that any lowering of interest rates could encourage a build up of debt as consumers borrow more.

" And is this the right stage in the cycle for us to encourage people to be taking on more debt?" he said in an interview broadcast on Bloomberg Television. Mr Rosengren was one of two dissenting votes at the US central bank on its decision last month to cut borrowing costs for the first time since 2008.

He also warned against more stimulus, saying that just because other countries are weak does not means the US should be easing.

Markets around the world were rattled last week by the movement in the bond markets, which also knocked stock markets.

On Wednesday last week, US stock markets fell by about 3% when the yield curve inverted, although they had recovered lost ground by the end of the week.

Last month, the US Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2008 , and more cuts are expected. Janus Henderson's Laura Foll told the BBC's Today Programme that the US central bank was "responding to global events" such as the contraction in both the UK and German economies during the second quarter.

The German economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, according to figures released last week , and its central bank said on Monday that it could shrink again in the third quarter - indicating a recession.

"Overall economic performance could again decline slightly," the Bundesbank said in a monthly report. "The main reason for this is the continuing downturn in industry."

The US economy also slowed in the last quarter, growing at an annualised pace of 2.1%.

The US president has published about 40 tweets either criticising Fed chairman Jerome Powell or pushing for a rate cut.

"Of course, it is really hard to know how much of an effect Trump is having," Ms Foll said.

"I don't think you can rule out the extreme pressure the Fed is under from Trump, but it is really hard to know how much of a direct knock-on effect that is having on policy."

 
 
 
KDMichigan
5.2.3  KDMichigan  replied to  Split Personality @5.2.2    one month ago
What was once abhorrent, now seems like a good idea (again).

Isn't all the Left wing forecasting doom and gloom about the economy?

So why wouldn't President Trump use the same tactics obama used?

Democrats where 100% for it then but now they find it totally abhorrent?

 
 
 
Split Personality
5.2.4  Split Personality  replied to  KDMichigan @5.2.3    one month ago
The federal government sets the salaries of the board's seven governors, and it receives all the system's annual profits, after a statutory dividend of 6% on member banks' capital investment is paid, and an account surplus is maintained. In 2015, the Federal Reserve earned a net income of $100.2 billion and transferred $97.7 billion to the U.S. Treasury . [23] Although an instrument of the US Government, the Federal Reserve System considers itself " an independent central bank because its monetary policy decisions do not have to be approved by the President or anyone else in the executive or legislative branches of government, it does not receive funding appropriated by Congress, and the terms of the members of the board of governors span multiple presidential and congressional terms."  Wiki

The Fed is apolitical and supposed to be non partisan and beyond the wishes or whims of the POTUS of the moment.

So, no, neither Bush or Obama practiced the policy, it was the Federal reserves policy, neither a GOP policy nor a DNC policy.

Quantitative easing started under the Bush Administration and continued through 6 years of the Obama Administrations without much input from either Potus until Obama had to settle for Janice Yellen to replace Bernanke when it became obvious Larry Sanders could not be confirmed by the Senate.

AS to whether it worked or not and who was for it and who was against it is anyone's guess. 

To hear some pundits, everyone else except Bush, Bernanke and Obama were against it.

https://www.bartleby.com/essay/Quantitative-Easing-During-the-Bush-and-Obama-P3J95TFYVC

https://archive.get.com/economy/2010/11/09/obama-and-bernanke-defend-quantitative-easing-but-the-rest-of-the-world-are-displeased-about-it/

 
 
 
MrFrost
5.2.5  MrFrost  replied to  KDMichigan @5.2.3    one month ago
Isn't all the Left wing forecasting doom and gloom about the economy?

No, economists. Neither left nor right. 

 
 
 
Ronin2
5.2.6  Ronin2  replied to  MrFrost @5.2.5    one month ago

So economists don't have a political agenda?

Right....

 
 
 
Kavika
6  Kavika     one month ago
It was about $85 billion per month for a long time. 

That is true and it's interesting that Trump want's to go back to QE and is hammering the Fed's to lower the interest rates. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
6.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Kavika @6    one month ago
That is true and it's interesting that Trump want's to go back to QE and is hammering the Fed's to lower the interest rates. 

He has a point.   Money is essentially pouring into the country since all other 'stable' economies are nearing or in recession and have interest rates at near zero.  It's a shitty situation to be in.

Our economy is essentially too strong to effectively compete with other weak economies.  China is basically flat lining and only make the 'gains' they do by manipulation.  Germany (which is the strongest economy of the EU) is actually contracting.

It's hard to keep the economy pumping when everything around us is tanking.

 
 
 
Kavika
6.1.1  Kavika   replied to  XDm9mm @6.1    one month ago
Money is essentially pouring into the country since all other 'stable' economies are nearing or in recession and have interest rates at near zero.  It's a shitty situation to be in.

If you're talking about FDI then it isn't correct. It's declining. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/foreign-investment-in-america-a-driver-of-jobs-is-declining/ar-AAFKgI0

Current interest rates are quite low, and if they go any lower the ''savers'' in this country will continue to be hurt since fixed rates are returning next to nothing. This is especially true for retirees. 

Also, what is the need for QE at this time?

I also read today where he is talking about reducing the payroll tax and also the capital gains tax.

For an economy that is supposed to be booming, this doesn't make a lot of sense. 

 
 
 
XDm9mm
6.1.2  XDm9mm  replied to  Kavika @6.1.1    one month ago
If you're talking about FDI then it isn't correct. It's declining.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/foreign-investment-in-america-a-driver-of-jobs-is-declining/ar-AAFKgI0

FDI is down, but foreign investment in debt equities is booming.  We're still the safe haven go to place.

Current interest rates are quite low, and if they go any lower the ''savers'' in this country will continue to be hurt since fixed rates are returning next to nothing. This is especially true for retirees. 

Granted interest rates are low, but appreciable higher than when Obama was in office, which was a major benefit to the "Obama economy".   But, then, inflation is also very low.   I guess those drastic price increases from tariffs never materialized.

Also, what is the need for QE at this time?

If I'm not mstaken, "QE" actually referred to the FED pumping 85 billion a month into the markets.  I don't believe low interest rates are considered QE.

Quantitative easing  ( QE ), also known as  large-scale asset purchases , is a  monetary policy  whereby a  central bank  buys predetermined amounts of  government bonds  or other  financial assets  in order to inject  liquidity directly into the economy. [1]  

Source:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#cite_note-1

I also read today where he is talking about reducing the payroll tax and also the capital gains tax.

First, everyone always talks about taxes.  Unfortunately, all the Democrat Presidential hopefuls are indicating tax increases.   

A payroll tax cut, is a back door stimulus plan.  He's doing what he can to bolster the American economy when the economies of the majority of our trading partners are in recession or even contracting.  If putting more dollars into the pockets of Americans to help keep the economy strong, I have no problem with that.

As to lowering the Capital Gains Tax, I'd like to see it pegged to the individual income tax rate the person(s) have.  Of course, any gains would have to be offset by any loses elsewhere.

For an economy that is supposed to be booming, this doesn't make a lot of sense. 

It does if you look at it from a long term perspective.   Today, tomorrow, next month is essentially meaningless.  Look at the possibilities of a vastly stronger, more flexible, and more vibrant American economy 1, 5 or 10 years down the road, and it will make sense.  It's smart to do everything possible now, while competitors are weakened, than to wait until they're strong enough to absorb any punches.

 
 
 
Kavika
7  Kavika     one month ago
FDI is down, but foreign investment in debt equities is booming.  We're still the safe haven go to place.

Yes, we are a safe haven. The foreign debt equity market in RE is moving right along. Couple be a double-edged sword. 

Granted interest rates are low, but appreciable higher than when Obama was in office, which was a major benefit to the "Obama economy".   But, then, inflation is also very low.   I guess those drastic price increases from tariffs never materialized.

Interest rates were low and inflation was low under Obama. But, the same can be said of the Trump economy. As a long-time investor in fixed-rate returns, the difference is still pathetic. I don't see where the tariffs were mentioned in my comment, but indeed, they have increased costs/pricing. 

If I'm not mstaken, "QE" actually referred to the FED pumping 85 billion a month into the markets.  I don't believe low interest rates are considered QE.

I believe that Trump called for QE and low-interest rates as two separate items.

A payroll tax cut, is a back door stimulus plan.  He's doing what he can to bolster the American economy when the economies of the majority of our trading partners are in recession or even contracting.  If putting more dollars into the pockets of Americans to help keep the economy strong, I have no problem with that.

Indeed it is a stimulus plan. Many indicators are showing the U.S. growth is slowing. With a possible recession in the near future. 

It does if you look at it from a long term perspective.   Today, tomorrow, next month is essentially meaningless.  Look at the possibilities of a vastly stronger, more flexible, and more vibrant American economy 1, 5 or 10 years down the road, and it will make sense.  It's smart to do everything possible now, while competitors are weakened, than to wait until they're strong enough to absorb any punches.

America rarely looks at anything in a long term perspective. We are driven by election cycles and whatever one can do to be re-elected. 

 
 
 
Split Personality
7.1  Split Personality  replied to  Kavika @7    one month ago

We do suffer from short term memory....

 
 
 
Jack_TX
7.2  Jack_TX  replied to  Kavika @7    one month ago
I don't see where the tariffs were mentioned in my comment, but indeed, they have increased costs/pricing. 

People frequently forget....that is the actual point of tariffs.

 
 
 
Tacos!
8  Tacos!    one month ago

I get it: Things were improving under Obama and they continue to improve, so it's not like it's something that started with Trump. I think that's fair.

Or it would be, if it weren't for the predictions we all heard about what would happen to the economy after Trump took office. Expert after expert insisted that the economy would collapse, unemployment would skyrocket, and in short, the economic sky would fall on us all. Furthermore, this wasn't going to take long. Trump would destroy the economy within the year.

Well, none of that happened.

And I don't think you can make a successful argument that Obama set things up so perfectly that anyone in the White House could have achieved the same thing. He's not that cool. At minimum, Trump deserves some credit for keeping a good thing going.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
9  Bob Nelson    one month ago

Excellent seed, John... although the Usual Suspects will surely jump through the usual hoops to deny the reality of this massive data dump.

What's amusing, here, is that all decent economists, for the last decade, have been saying "the economy is on exactly the same trajectory as has been since it pulled out of the Great Recession nose-dive".

The fact is that the Fed runs the economy, not the President. The Fed has had a fairly decent series of leaders, although Powell was too trigger-happy about raising interest rates.

For Presidential actions to have much impact, there must be several, and they must be really, really loony. Oh, wait....

 
 
 
WallyW
9.1  WallyW  replied to  Bob Nelson @9    one month ago

The economy recovered on its own.

Obama did nothing to boost it along, being anti-business.

 
 
 
Bob Nelson
9.1.1  Bob Nelson  replied to  WallyW @9.1    one month ago

   

        jrSmiley_79_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
MUVA
9.1.2  MUVA  replied to  WallyW @9.1    one month ago

Remember you didn't build that business someone else did.

 
 
 
Tessylo
9.1.3  Tessylo  replied to  MUVA @9.1.2    one month ago

Who built the business where you work?  

 
 
 
MUVA
9.1.4  MUVA  replied to  Tessylo @9.1.3    one month ago

My wife and I we sold the old shop for condos and had to build offices and a parts department all by are own hands. [Deleted]

 
 
 
Tessylo
9.1.5  Tessylo  replied to  MUVA @9.1.4    one month ago

Ah yes, your wife's family businesses.  

I work for a living.  My job wasn't handed to me.  

 
 
 
MUVA
9.1.6  MUVA  replied to  Tessylo @9.1.5    one month ago

No it's my business I'm the the CEO. I also have stock for sale if you would like to buy some.

 
 
 
MrFrost
9.1.7  MrFrost  replied to  WallyW @9.1    one month ago
The economy recovered on its own.

So then you admit trump has done exactly dick to help the economy since he  has been in office as it is getting better "on it's own". 

Thanks for admitting that Wally! 

 
 
 
MUVA
9.1.8  MUVA  replied to  MrFrost @9.1.7    one month ago

I think what he is saying is Obama did nothing and Trump on the other hand cut taxes and cut back on some regulations that helped spur business.I know since Trump has been in office my business is booming we have a backlog of service work. 

 
 
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