G.D.P. Grew at 1.9% Rate in Quarter, a New Sign of Slowdown

Via:  john-russell  •  4 months ago  •  24 comments

G.D.P. Grew at 1.9% Rate in Quarter, a New Sign of Slowdown
the pace of growth declined in the spring and again over the period that spanned July, August and September, the first time in a decade that the growth rate has fallen for two consecutive quarters. 

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T

Dogged by uneasiness over trade frictions and weak global growth, the American economy continued to slow over the summer. Gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy -- grew at a 1.9 percent annual rate for the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Wall Street analysts had forecast a gain of 1.5 percent. 

The year started out with a surge, but the pace of growth declined in the spring and again over the period that spanned July, August and September, the first time in a decade that the growth rate has fallen for two consecutive quarters. 

Policymakers at the Federal Reserve are expected to end their two days of meetings in Washington on Wednesday afternoon with an announcement that the central bank will again drop its benchmark interest rate to prevent a slowdown from turning into a slide. 

"We are expecting the Fed to lower rates," said Lydia Boussour, senior United States economist at Oxford Economics. "I think there is a stronger case now than just a few months ago."

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/30/business/economy/gdp-economy.html 


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1  seeder  JohnRussell    4 months ago
the first time in a decade that the growth rate has fallen for two consecutive quarters. 

I thought this couldn't happen under Trump. s.

1.1  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @1    4 months ago
I thought this couldn't happen under Trump. s.

Damn, I'm glad you used the sarcasm tag JR, otherwise I would have had to call you out on that bit of hyperbole.   I know as well as you do that no one has ever said that and the fact that it is that good considering the slowdown if not recession of other global trading partners, is in and of itself pretty amazing.

Now, if Congress would get off their ass and get the USMCA signed, we would very likely be that much better.  But, what's good for the country is bad for the Democrats doing all they can to denigrate and stop President Trump.

1.1.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  XDm9mm @1.1    4 months ago

U.S. slowdown deepens as economic growth slips to 1.9 ...

4 hours ago ·   Trump  vowed during his presidential campaign that he could boost the economy to around  4 percent growth , a level not seen in years. He also has  promised  at  least 3 percent growth a year , an annual...

Vic Eldred
1.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @1    4 months ago

Well, the radical Obama did say “Two percent real GDP growth is the new normal for the U.S. economy.” Though for Obama it was more like 1.64%.  It would be an outlier for Trump.

1.2.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.2    4 months ago
....In other words, economic growth may be slowing, but at a time when the vast majority of Americans who want to be working are able to find a job. That makes the weakening growth in G.D.P. and job creation less worrisome than it would have been in an era of higher unemployment.

Slower growth is less problematic when the economy is mostly healthy. Still, having a job is not the same as having a well-paid job, and the data so far in 2019 does not support the idea that American workers are receiving big pay increases, despite the low jobless rate.

If anything, wage growth seems to be weakening. Forecasters expect Friday's news release will show that average hourly earnings rose only 0.3 percent in October. If that proves correct, it will imply wage increases over the last year of a mere 3 percent. That number was 3.4 percent for the year ended in February. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/29/upshot/economic-conditions-2020-race.html
2  seeder  JohnRussell    4 months ago
U.S. slowdown deepens as economic growth slips to 1.9 percent pace in third quarter 

By Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam 
Oct. 30, 2019 at 8:39 a.m. EDT 

The U.S. economy cooled over the summer, growing at a 1.9 percent annualized pace from July through September, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, the latest sign that the slowdown is deepening. 

Economists anticipated weaker growth after President Trump announced a dramatic expansion of his trade war in early August, spooking business leaders and deterring them from making major investments during a period of so much uncertainty. Consumer spending continues to power the economy, but business investment has slipped sharply, falling 3 percent in the third quarter, the weakest since the end of 2015. 

Slow growth abroad and problems at big employers such as Boeing and General Motors also were a drag on growth. Tens of thousands of workers went on strike at GM in September, halting most production at the company. And Boeing, the U.S.'s largest exporter, remains under pressure after two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jets in the past year. 

After revving to 2.9 percent growth in 2018, the U.S. economy appears to be settling into the slower pace than it notched during the final year of the Obama administration. Trump vowed during his presidential campaign that he could boost the economy to around 4 percent growth, a level not seen in years. He promised at least 3 percent growth a year, an annual pace he has yet to achieve. 

Dean Moriarty
3  Dean Moriarty    4 months ago

It will be interesting to see if the Fed takes Trumps advice and cuts the rate. He’s been the hardest on them when they raised it and voiced strong opposition at the time.

3.1  JBB  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3    4 months ago

Except that if interest rates are already cut to the damn bone for lameass political reasons during times of full employment then The Fed will be powerless to promote growth by cutting interest rates when the next cyclical economuc recession finally and inevitably strikes our economy, again... 

Dean Moriarty
3.1.1  Dean Moriarty  replied to  JBB @3.1    4 months ago

That isn't true because in the last interview with the Fed chairman on NPR he said he has quantitative easing as a tool and also the possibility of negative interest rates like we now see in some parts of Europe. 



The People's Fish
3.1.2  The People's Fish  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.1    4 months ago

Have you ever seen half the country hoping for a recession to include all the Keynesian witch doctor economists? It's really bizarre. I dislike Trump so much I want to get fired, lose my house and file Bankruptcy? 

Most of the people they idolize on TV are wealthy and have liquid cash assets to withstand a lengthy recession. The viewers on the other hand that value these idiots are in for a surprise should their hopes and dreams come true.

Dean Moriarty
3.1.3  Dean Moriarty  replied to  The People's Fish @3.1.2    4 months ago

I have no confidence in the Fed and its policies but I'm aware they have other tools in their chest to manipulate the free market and screw things up. 

The People's Fish
3.1.4  The People's Fish  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.3    4 months ago

I'm a fan of the current administration's deregulation. Obama was one of the worst crony regulators and the unwinding of them and then some is refreshing.

Government cannot honestly regulate for any good purpose. It always leads to corruption. 

3.1.5  JBB  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.3    4 months ago

Do you really believe that The Fed having to resort to negative interest rates for the first time in US history, where US banks actually have to pay businesses and individuals interest to bribe them to borrow money from them, would actually be a real indication of a truly good or even growing economy? I think I will stand by what I said originally and not go by what one of Trump's lameass sycophantic bought out corrupt waterheaded appointees ever said anyway...

3.1.6  JBB  replied to  The People's Fish @3.1.4    4 months ago

It is not what some people may say that will ultimatley cause the US economy to crash into another gop Great Recession ending Obama's Longest Economic Expansion in US History. Nope, it will be the damn gop's financial incompetence and Donald Trump's financial mismanagement ultimately at fault...

Dean Moriarty
3.1.7  Dean Moriarty  replied to  JBB @3.1.5    4 months ago

I would like to see the Fed abolished and interest rates fluctuate based on the free market and not be manipulated by the government. 
I’m also not a fan of the quantitative easing the Fed used during the Obama years. 

3.1.8  JBB  replied to  Dean Moriarty @3.1.7    4 months ago

Of course you do and then you advocate for our government surrendering one of the only ways it has to stimulate a faltering economy or to ease the effects of an economic recession. Cutting interest rates and taxes and increasing government spending are the only tools we have effect economy growth. Taking one tool away would only cripple our government's ability to enact the full spectrum of fiscal policy. That does not seem wise or very likely to me...

The People's Fish
3.1.9  The People's Fish  replied to  JBB @3.1.8    4 months ago

Government picks unnatural winners and losers and is responsible for most of our recessions. 

Just Jim NC TttH
3.1.10  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  The People's Fish @3.1.9    4 months ago

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.

Ernest Benn

The People's Fish
3.1.11  The People's Fish  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @3.1.10    4 months ago

Yes sir!

4  JBB    4 months ago

Once the sugar high of Trump's huge irresponsible tax cuts for the very rich wore off it was inevitable Trump's and the damn gop's financial incompetence would ultimately crash Obama's Longest Financial Recovery In History landing us in another gop Great Recession and suffering trillion dollar budget deficits, again...

4.1  Ronin2  replied to  JBB @4    4 months ago

Try again.

You cannot have sustained economic growth forever.

Obama had 0% fed interest rates; the fed buyout of toxic assets; porkulus; and the America Recovery and Reinvestment Act to keep his anemic economic growth going. Just remember it was the slowest economic recovery from recession ever.

The Fed has since raised interest rates which will slow economic growth. We are trying to force China and the EU to give the US balanced trade agreements through sanctions (short term pain for hopefully long term gain). The new USMCA trade agreement is still sitting on Pelosi's desk gathering dust, and doesn't look like the Dems have any desire to pass it. Not to mention the Dems and their media surrogates projecting doom and gloom before Trump even took office.

As for the deficits, you get those when you continue to fight wars across the planet- and need to replace munitions, equipment, and pay and train personnel for combat situations. Also, revamping the military technology to keep up with the Chinese and Russians- since our NATO "allies" are worthless.

4.1.1  JBB  replied to  Ronin2 @4.1    4 months ago

I think I will still stand exactly by what I said above without any qualifications and If you cannot understand this then maybe you could begin by taking Econ 101 at your local community college because I own a fine lambskin diploma with my name and the word "Economics" writ in fancy script upon it which was issued to me by a major state university's highly rated school of business over 40 years ago. Do you? I did not think so. In that case, "NEXT!"

4.1.2  XDm9mm  replied to  JBB @4.1.1    4 months ago
major state university's school

One must surmise that education from a "major state university" never included how to avoid run on sentences.  "NEXT!"

It Is ME
5  It Is ME    4 months ago

"G.D.P. Grew at 1.9% Rate in Quarter, a New Sign of Slowdown"

" Satisfaction " does get one to sit on the Barcalounger now and again, to " savor" the "Gains" one has now. 

Time to "Reflect" on all the "Good Things". jrSmiley_11_smiley_image.gif

A battle lost or won is easily described, understood, and appreciated, but the moral growth of a great nation requires reflection , as well as observation, to appreciate it .

Frederick Douglass


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