Michael Bloomberg launches 2020 presidential bid
Category: News & Politics
Via: tig • 5 years ago • 567 commentsBy: Ali Vitali and Stephanie Ruhle
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg officially entered the 2020 race Sunday, ending several weeks of will-he-or-won’t-he speculation about a late entry into the already-crowded Democratic primary.
Bloomberg’s entry was preceded by news of a massive television ad buy — $31 million, according to Advertising Analytics , which told NBC News it was the single largest single week expenditure the firm had ever tracked. A $30 million buy in the final weeks of the 2012 race for then-President Barack Obama held the previous record.
The ad promotes Bloomberg's record as mayor and then promises "to rebuild the country and restore faith in the dream that defines us: where the wealthy will pay more in taxes and the middle class get their fair share; everyone without health insurance can get it and everyone who likes theirs, keep it; where jobs won't just help you get by but get ahead. And on all those things, Mike Bloomberg intends to make good."
It’s Bloomberg’s deep pockets and willingness to spend that could help him make up the difference of getting in several months after most of the already-established Democratic field. But his strategy to win is a risky one: skipping the early four nominating contests and instead running what longtime Bloomberg aide Howard Wolfson called a "broad-based, national campaign."
He’ll also come up against a field stacked with strong competition, some with similar messaging to his own — like former Vice President Joe Biden, who has also hinged his candidacy on his ability to beat President Donald Trump next November — and progressive Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who are running on platforms of more structural change. And they’ve all been running for months, building organizing machinery as they go.
Still, Bloomberg Communications Director Jason Schecter said it’s not too late, citing polls that show Democratic voters have yet to firmly make up their minds on which candidates to support. Schecter said Bloomberg "has the skills to fix what is broken" and was motivated to run by concerns about "the possibility that we could lose next November" to Trump.
"We can’t afford another four years of this," he said.
Bloomberg declined to enter the race last March. At the time, sources close to him told NBC News that they didn’t see a path to victory with Biden in the race . But consternation from certain Democratic circles about the strength of the field — Biden has lagged while Warren surged throughout the summer and early fall — reignited talk of a Bloomberg run.
Perhaps the clearest signal that he had decided to run was Bloomberg’s recent disavowal of the stop-and-frisk policy he implemented as mayor and fiercely defended for years. Speaking at a black megachurch in Brooklyn, New York, last weekend, Bloomberg said: "I got something really important wrong … I want you to know that I realized back then, I was wrong — and I’m sorry."
A key South Carolina politician — Columbia Mayor Steve Benjamin — was in the crowd that day and told NBC News a few days later that he was "moved" by the humility in Bloomberg’s apology. He said he planned to endorse him if the former mayor decided to officially run.
Other 2020 hopefuls who have been running for months, however, have reacted forcefully against Bloomberg’s foray into the field, even before Sunday’s official announcement.
"I don’t think a person, just because they have billions of dollars, should sit back and say, 'you know what, yeah, I think I’ll run for election right now and drop $100 million,'" Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., told a crowd in Concord, New Hampshire, on Saturday.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., also in New Hampshire on Saturday, said she doesn’t "believe you get the best candidate when there's such a bias in terms of money. I don't believe that's how this works."
Klobuchar, who has joked that she raised $17,000 from her ex-boyfriends during her first Senate run, joked Saturday of Bloomberg’s record ad buy: “Man, I’m not going to be able to make that up with the ex-boyfriends.”
Meanwhile, Warren — who hasn’t held back her feelings on billionaires, or Bloomberg — told said Saturday night “this election should not be for sale,” later adding that she doesn’t think the race “is going to be about TV ads versus TV ads” but instead about “grassroots movements.”
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This is a game changer. Bloomberg is a strong candidate who enters the race very late with a massive war chest and an electorate with a substantial minority holding a grassroots mentality.
If he wins the nomination, he seems to have the means to beat Trump. I cannot say that for any other candidate on the D side.
I'm with you Tig. He is smart, honest, and articulate and not extreme. A fiscal conservative and socially aware. The fact that he made his own money from being super smart is a credit to him, and while others talk he does. This year alone he gave 1.8 billion dollars to Johns Hopkins for financial aid, which is the largest endowment ever to a university, so the man is also philanthropic with his money, which shows his character.
I hope he chooses Mayor Pete as his VP.
Currently, I think Buttigieg would be considered. But the ticket would be a weak draw for the important minority vote.
I don't even think Bloomberg believes he can. Bloomberg seeks a brokered convention and he's placing a big time bet on it.
A respectable hypothesis.
#metoo is but one of a few issues. He did good for NYC with "stop & frisk", but then again, that's a bad thing with the radical left! He's also a billionaire and that's another boo-boo.
The way Bloomberg was using stop and frisk was ruled unconstitutional. He violated thousands of people’s constitutional rights.
I assume you are referring to people such as Dean-- who has always been such a strong defender of the rights of the downtrodden (especially when it comes to the victims of stop and frisk-- who were overwhelmingly Black and Hispanic!)
I do like the article you linked. It is a controversial program with many Conservatives claiming that it violates the 4th Amendment. Keep in mind it was ruled unconstitutional by a single judge.
Minorities were "overwhelmingly" the subjects of "stop and frisk" and minorities were "overwhelmingly" the beneficiaries of the program. To put it simply: When any group has become so "overwhelmingly" represented in violent crime statistics such programs become vital for the protection of minority neighborhoods.
I like that he is personally financing his own campaign, unlike Trump who claimed he would but has been pimping himself to anyone with a spare buck in their pocket. What he will be spending will barely put a dent in his net worth.
Gotta love your righteous indignation about both Biden and Bloomberg abut women while backing a guy that bragged about Pussy grabbing and was a multiple cheating husband.
Ain't politics great?
Donald moved on a friend's wife, "Like a bitch" while Baron was "precious cargo." I think that is the way it occurred.
thank you for pointing that out
This isn't vetting. It is character assassination. One you only seem to do to Dems, while completely missed the same flaws of your favorite candidate. I just find it ironic.
Carry on.
Are you equating trying to bring down health costs due to the diabetes epidemic in NYC, to a cheating, foul mouth man? Really? And really, pointing out that Mike is short? How about Trump being fat?
I'm sick of this one way street, using women and male grossness to knock any male dem. You can't do it if you are supporting one who is pretty bad himself.
How does one compare 'drink size regulation' (you presume this is all bad) to falling flat on campaign promises such as eliminating the national debt in 8 years? If Trump is going to accomplish that promise he is going in the wrong direction since the national debt has already increased $3T on his watch and deficit spending has increased as well. And his progress towards his over-the-top-stupid campaign promise of building his wall and having Mexico pay for it should speak for itself.
For me, I focus on important factors such as being presidential and representing the office of the presidency with dignity rather than engaging in juvenile name-calling tweets. It would be nice to have a PotUS who does not appear as a clown on the world stage.
One of Trump's flaws is spouting out childish insults - a flaw his base has wholeheartedly adapted. MASA. Make America Stupid Again.
How so? I've always seen that as shorter men who went around looking for fights (sounds like Donald, huh?) just to prove they weren't weak. I don't see that in Bloomberg at all. He seems sure of himself. I see Trump picking fights, and Trump afraid of looking weak, with really no reason at all to do so (except perhaps that he actually is weak).
Yes, Trump certainly has "short man syndrome" which really just describes someone who tries to act tough due to insecurity. Trump is full of insecurity; he's never measured up to a real man and he knows it, and he hates it.
Exactly!
How anyone can accuse Bloomberg of being greedy is beyond me. He has donated the single largest endowment to a university ever, over 1 billion dollars, never mind all the charities he gives to. Who does Trump give to?
And for the record, he didn't change the rules and NYers overwhelmingly voted for him, as an independent. Try again.
Pointing out that Trump is Making America Stupid is merely stating a fact.
But the incels love him.
Hardly, I stated two abysmal failures per his own campaign promises. Is there nothing that you accept as legit criticism of Trump?
Do you presume all short men have this syndrome?
Greedy Bloomberg would like to raise taxes, generous Trump allowed people to keep more of their money.
Based on what are you saying that about Bloomberg? In fact, I am paying more taxes with Trump than I did under any other president, and I am not rich.
Oh please. I have known many short men who don't fit any of those descriptions. Kind of sad that in this day and age we have to go there.
Is that because greedy Bloomberg jacked up the property taxes there?
I asked if all short men have this syndrome.
He is talking about the soda tax and his philosophy for it. NYC unlike a lot of other cities have city hospitals. We also have a diabetes epidemic and most of it is coming from the poorer communities, who have been themselves trying to fight sugary drinks due to the high mortality rates from obesity and diabetes.
The title of this would lead you to believe he was talking about taxes in general, but that is quite purposeful since the youtube poster is anti Dem.
His war on sugar and war on cigarettes are just about the only things I like about Bloomberg,
I guess I like his stance on guns too. (I'm a New Yorker and I remember when this city was like the Wild West.)
But TBH, I think he has is own gun and carry license. And that is a window into understanding what he thinks he is entitled to vs. what the rest of us are.
I am a New Yorker, too and I enjoyed the quality of life that he brought to the city. It is no easy job to keep a city of 8 million as crime free as he did and as pleasant to live in.
I can find no information that he owns a gun. Not sure where you got that from.
But for the record, any NYer can apply to have a concealed carry permit for a handgun.
And good luck getting it.
As opposed to hypocritical Trump, who hicked up our taxes by capping our property taxes and then conveniently making his new primary property in Florida so he doesn't have to pay them?
Unlike Trump, Bloomberg who is a real fiscal conservative believes in a balanced budget, which was why he did that across the board. Trump, on the other hand, has run our deficit into the trillions, on a wall that Mexico was supposed to pay for and can be cut down with tools that you can buy at the home depot.
I really need to cut to the chase here with regard to how I feel about Bloomberg.
If the resulting outcome of a brokered Democratic Convention is a ticket with Bloomberg at the top I will leave the party after the November election.
I would remain in the party long enough to vote against Trump but then I would never again in my life register as a Democrat.
And Bloomberg will likely lose against Trump. The only idea I can think of which might even be worse would be to run Chelsea Clinton.
He isn't telling anyone what to do. People still have a choice. He is taxing behavior. As a society, we moderate behavior all the time. Just look at our prisons. Loads of people in there for smoking pot.
And you are exaggerating. He didn't stop anyone from eating anything. Smoking laws are everywhere. Don't put that on him. He didn't even get his soda law passed. Stop and frisk was wrong, and he has since apologized,
I might be getting him confused with Bill Maher on this point.
But Bloomberg definitely has armed guards.
I am sorry you feel that way. Do you honestly think that there is another candidate that can beat Trump, because I don't think so, and I used to think it was Biden...
As an independent, I accepted my 4 years of Trump with grace (other than my taxes going up) and I didn't want to go ahead with impeachment, but now I am done and I am looking for anyone who can have mass appeal.
Restitution for what? If they didn't do anything, nothing happened. If they did, then they deserved it.
The ideal of stop and frisk is what is in question, not the outcome.
I checked that out, too and he does not. What he did call for was more armed guards at Johns Hopkins. We could debate that, too.
This righteous indignation coming from a guy who states disproportionately kills blacks and Hispanics on death row.
That's not racist?
I never approved of stop and frisk and I will not defend it, but I am glad he apologized.
I wouldnt go around bragging that Bloomberg is a real fiscal conservative, if you want him to get the Democratic nomination.
You're just throwing out personal comments to get a reaction from me, instead of adding any content.
But please carry on and mods, don't remove his comments.
You are right, I shouldn't have made that comment personal to you. But let's talk about consistency.
Are you against security at our airports? Let's start there.
Prove that.
Now this is funny. You insult me, I give you a pass, then you complain about being personally attacked (Not by me), and then you go in for part two.
Priceless.
Only made better by the hug from BF.
Your experience as a bouncer dealing with troublemakers causes you to presume all short men have short man syndrome.
My opinion is that this is an ill conceived stereotype based on a skewed sampling. You have applied this stereotype to Bloomberg to infer negatives based solely on a single physical metric ... his height.
SMH
Wrong. Because I never talk about "Republicans", "the NRA", or "Right wing", ever. You can go through my whole comment history to see that I don't. So don't tell me those are my lines because they are not.
And you won't get a pass on the next insult you make to me for that load of BS.
What prompts you to write something like that?
I have to wonder what your (et. al.) position would be if Bloomberg was running as the R candidate in 2016 (instead of Trump). Would you have wrapped your analysis around his height and talked about 'tiny Mike'? Somehow I doubt it.
Here are a few so-called short men that have been pretty important in the history of the world.
Winston Churchill
Mahatma Gandhi
Bob Dylan
Charlie Chaplin
Martin Luther King
James Madison
Picasso
Voltaire
Beethoven
There are hundreds if not thousands more but that's a fairly good start.
Pretty sad when a person's height is how they are defined not by their accomplishments or character.
If one were to look at so-called tall people and apply the same negative stereotype you could say someone that is 6' 2'' is simply a huge pile of bullshit.
Probably better to direct this to MUVA since he seems to think that a man's height necessarily determines his psychological stability.
Sorry that was who I intended to address.
I suspect you might get a response along the lines that these men were driven to greatness because of their psychological angst at being short.
Hmmmm, tiny Mike or Chump Change Trump.
One is worth $50 billion and the other is simply Chump Change.
Wow, thank you for that well thought out and articulate response.
I think that it's funny that you go to a very progressive news source for that. Like they don't want someone like Warren over a moderate like Bloomberg.
No, that is not a derail. It's to show societal hypocrisy.
Oh, the outrage over stop and frisk. Except, there were guidelines to stop and frisk and it did make our streets in NY safer. But stop and frisk didn't pretend that they were profiling.
We got the TSA after 9/11 because of terrorism, specifically, Muslim terrorists and at first, they were the only ones profiled. Then to stop the outcry that it was profiling, we started to frisk grandma and little kids. But we all knew who and what they were still looking for. Just better optics.
Now who would get on a plane after 9/11 without airport security, but hey, that's OK in airports. No violations of rights there, but not OK in NYC because of no pretense that they were profiling.
And that is societal hypocrisy.
And after you see that I am right, I am hoping that you are a gentleman enough to admit it. Btw.. that goes for you too Jim. I see you voted up the comment.
No, it isn't so I'll explain my comment to you...Trump has bragged many times how rich he is. The fact is that his daddy kept his head above water. Whereas Bloomberg is a self-made billionaire. Trump loves to name call so by his own standards he little more than chump change when compared to Bloomberg.
It seems as shown in your post that height is a really big deal for you. As I pointed out in another comment accomplishments and character mean a lot more than height to people that have a modicum on sense.
There ya go MUVA.
I am referencing another person's comment. That is not me talking about the NRA. Geeze, try again.
He does not want to ban guns. That disinformation came from the NRA. How else am I supposed to say that? I don't walk around bad-mouthing the NRA as an organization though.
I don't think Bloomberg can beat Trump.
But the rest of the Democratic field does have me nervous.
I honestly think Bernie has the chops to beat Trump but his willingness to raise middle class taxes to pay for Medicare for All sounds suicidal. He may have blown it with that.
That brings me back to Warren and whether the left can get out of its own way to listen to her ideas for how to scaffold to a Medicare for All attempt after basically "strengthening Obamacare." It's not a completely unreasonable position.
But Warren just had to go and talk up reparations for multiple groups and a complete cancellation of student debt. I don't consider myself to be a centrist but even I find the pandering offensive.
Michelle Obama, where are you when we need you?
Hi Gulliver Swift! Mrs. Obama has done her fill of living a 'tortured' existence in the White House! On the other hand, her daughers would have a private role model, female edition, to look up to with all the other young school aged girls.
Nikky Haley, where are you when we need you?
See, I would have voted for her, but she wouldn't run as a dem and she won't go against her party.
See, this is the problem. Most of the Dems are unappealing to middle America and I think that Warren and Bernie are the worst of the lot. The Dems needed a solid moderate and they are there, but not getting any coverage. Blame the press for that.
I was just trying to echo Gulliver-Smith with a better and more realistic alternative, although she won't run in 2020 and I doubt will accept a VP appointment. I don't know if I'll be around to see it, but I hope she's elected POTUS in 2024.
CB!
Michelle's got the talent, I think.
I remember the 2012 convention when Barack was a bit exhausted, her speech and Bill Clinton's speech pretty much turned things around.
I also don't think people ever fully came to terms with why Hillary lost. She didn't lose because she was too centrist. She lost because people believed she was a corrupt tool for Wall Street interests.
And I say this as a person who spent the last three years thinking Hillary lost because she was too centrist and the people hungered for the real deal like a Bernie Sanders. Now I am confronted with the polling on Medicare for All and I have to conclude people want a more incremental approach.
But they don't want a Democrat billionaire. The reason they look the other way for Trump is because he represents a sledge-hammer taken to the Democratic Party's social agenda. (Obviously, many pages could be written to express this take on things, but it is clear to me there are limits to 2020 as being a watershed election for the Sanders and AOC wing of the party.)
Gulliver, you would be asking the irresistible 'niceness' that is Michelle Obama to take on the immovable provocateur in a series of debates. She certainly will go high, while he most definitely go low. . . .It's anybody's guess which one could cross the 'presidential' line after that! We need a candidate that will go toe-to-toe with Donald Trump.
That is, you know the low-down, dirty, impeachable stunt that Trump sent Rudy and AG Bar to do all the way back in second quarter of this year in Ukraine? You see how diabolically Trump is 'crushing' Biden with the mere mentioning of his son? Biden has not even laid a political punch on Donald for that one! Even though, Trump has nearly politically 'castrated' Joe Biden before the first caucus or primary vote.
Someone who is wiling to politically 'cut the balls' off this opponent and smash each one with a political mallet:
1. Start a public countdown of the days since the Ukraine telephone transcript was improperly placed on an secure server in the White House erroneously.
2. As Congress to hold public hearings on how AG Barr, the nation's leading law enforcement agent could be outside the country breaking our campaign laws on behalf of his boss.
And run ads with a 'thousand' other meat and potatoes questions about the crazy, but dangerously truth matters Trump is using to build his doctrine on.
Trump has not tired of his own BS, that is one thing he stated about himself correctly. Trump is nothing if he is not an all-around BSer. He has never ever tired on being on television, radio, press, 'hard-copy,' and social media talking about his favorite guy: Himself.
We need someone who will at least come in saying EVERYTHING Trump does not . Whatever Trump won't say; say that and own it!
Donald Trump lives each day to come out energetically to share the lies, half-truths, and innuendo he has arrived at overnight. Our candidate will need to fight Trump by exposing the truth Trump has 'thrown away' or left on his cutting room floor!
Seeing you say all this what I realize is that I see in Michelle the talent to actually be a fine president but not necessarily the particular talents necessary to run for president.
And Trump shows us that in this twisted country the opposite can be true. He had the talent to run for president but no aptitude to actually be one.
Interesting. Donald Trump is to politics what his gaudy and trashy lifestyle is. He is not ashamed, not abashed, to come to a microphone some day and hurl the most snarkliest lie he can about Michelle Obama's children in order for it to past through them and rattle her. If she were our candidate. He has done this to Joe Biden. Biden is stunned. "Who does that?" Who attacks a man damaged by life taking his wife/child/child away from him-only to have the political game he has known all his life reach out to grab and literally mess with the mental state of his last surviving son?
Trump is so cut-throat and dirty that I firmly believe though I can not prove it, he directed Lindsay Graham to turn on his "good friend" Joe Biden - if you like me, Lindsay. You're do this for me. Go investigate Joe for me. They say I can't do it through Ukraine, so you do it for me. Make-keep me happy, Lindsay.
I can imagine it going something like that a "king" detailing an activity to a knight. A boss talking down to a flunky.
The person who needs to take on Trump has to go for his political throat and clamp off the words. Deliberately and purposely counter every lie with contemplated truth. Whatever Donald is hiding >> go get it somehow. And throw in down on the table for all to see.
Back to Joe Biden. If Biden gets this nomination, you can bet your money that whatever 'shadow' Hunter Biden has produced in his life publicly or privately, his "sins" will be sitting in a set of seats directly across and in front of any Biden-Trump debate.
Now then, Biden would not do that to Trump. Why not? Biden is no Trump. Trump is no Biden.
Yes I would like you to find where I initiate nasty discussion. And while you are doing that, please count up how many comments I make where I say nothing of the sort, since you seem to think:
Btw.. before you do that... maybe you should understand what an independent is. We have no loyalty to any party. Now your party happens to be in right now, but I was not always pleased when Obama was in either and I said it.
Making a reference to the NRA is not the same as talking about the NRA. It is unreasonable to interpret Perrie's statement to mean that she has never ever made a reference to the R or D party, etc. Unless one is trying to play a weak gotcha game, most people would interpret Perrie's comment to mean that she does not make critical comments on the R or D party, NRA, political wings, etc. :
Talking about something is different than referencing it in a comment. One can reference the R party in a sentence without talking about it. For example:
Bloomberg is more of an R than a D but he will get no support from the NRA.
The above references R, D and NRA but does not talk about any of them (in fact this sentence talks about Bloomberg). In contrast, consider this:
The R party is torn with Trump as PotUS because while he does support some of the platform, his demeanor and history flies in the face of the stereotypical 'family values' R politician image they seek to dishonestly promote.
The above is talking about the R party.
Thank you Tig for explaining what should be obvious!
MUVA,
I am not angry. I am shocked that you don't get the difference.
That is twice in a row that you have rejected a clear (and obvious) explanation and instead insist that the author is a liar. It is that kind of tactic that motivates me to illustrate the obvious and call out the cheap tactics.
No, you don't get it at all. I don't hate people because of their politics that would take way too much mental energy and be a total waste of time. I'll leave the hating to you.
I explained the comment in the simplest terms I could and you choose to be willfully ignorant on the subject.
That's on you MUVA.
Cheers
I think you are onto something there. A few years ago I read a bunch of the popular books on sociopaths. The checklist books, the sociopath next-door type books, etc. One of the hallmarks of getting entangled with a sociopath is that they will separate you from whatever is most dear to you.
I think I remember Hillary arranging to have some of Trump's accusers in the audience. Considering how well all that worked out, I'm not sure I would repeat the tactic.
It's not clear to me who the Democrat is that we need to send up against Trump. The most important thing they need, IMHO, is that they come across as genuine.
That may sound strange considering "genuine" is on of the last things I would say to describe Trump. But he IS a genuine asshole.
Convoluted? That suggests you do not understand the difference between referencing X and talking about X. If so, this is a great time to solidify the difference in your mind. I would offer clear examples, but I have already done so.
Actually, it was the opposite outrage:
The women blamed Hillary (as well) for her actions more or less during those years against them, too. So they lent themselves to this.
An example of the In your face approach or "assiness" of Donald Trump. If Michelle Obama were to run, or whomever the democratic candidate is, she or he will have to be willing to go WWE 'foul' with the truth as thier stagecraft.
Trump respects nothing else. You have politically put some 'woo-eee' bumps on his fake blond head, right out the gate, and not allow him space to breath afterwards. He gets mileage out of every break in the political heat.
Thanks for that refresher.
I think what I might be remembering is a Trump accuser or two speaking at the Democratic Convention back in 2012.
There's so much water under the bridge at this point.
...err..back in 2016...
People like Bloomberg have it on their "bucket list" to run for president of the United States. There is likely some truth to the belief that is the reason Trump ran in 2016, he wanted to do it before he died.
Bloomberg's "path" to the Democratic nomination goes directly through the other moderates, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Harris. For Bloomberg to go up in standing those others will have to go down, raising the likelihood that Warren and/or Sanders will go up.
I dont object to Bloomberg , at all , and would vote for him ahead of any Republican in 2020, even a Republican other than Trump. But frankly, no billionaire should be president of the United States , and there is no doubt his wealth will be a big point of contention in the Democratic primaries.
Compared to Trump, he looks like FDR, and would be a huge step forward. I guess it's all relative.
For me, I need to see the candidate. Bloomberg over Trump is easy. Bloomberg over any R makes no sense to me.
Why?
Well, at this point (barring any very unusual unforeseen circumstances) the Republican nominee will be Trump.
IMO its still to early to make any accurate predictions as to who the Dem nominee will be... I think the odds are still slightly in favour of a Biden nomination, but that's by no means certain).
I agree. Trump is almost certainly the R. Biden is the most likely D at the moment. What remains to be seen is how Bloomberg fairs. Very unusual entry and too soon to tell.
John.
I have no problem with a self-made billionaire who has done good works with their money. There is no sin in being rich as long as you are thoughtful with your money.
And yes he is a moderate like Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, and Harris. You know I was supporting Biden or Klobuchar, but Biden is slipping and doesn't have the money, Buttigieg has a major problem with black voters, no one notices Klobuchar and Harris is disliked. I am looking for a winner here.
FWIW, interesting article in today's news:
Kamala Harris aide says in resignation letter: 'I've never seen staff treated so poorly'
"This is my third presidential campaign and I have never seen an organization treat its staff so poorly," wrote state operations director Kelly Mehlenbacher in the Nov. 11 letter, which was obtained by The New York Times .
"While I still believe that Senator Harris is the strongest candidate to win in the General Election in 2020, I no longer have confidence in our campaign or its leadership," she added.
."
I used to be politically active-- and a self-described "leftist". (At one point, many years ago,event when I was a very innocent young thing, I was proud to describe myself as a Socialist, LOL!
But I've noticed a change in the Left in recent years-- for some reason a large segment of "progressives" have an unmitigated dislike of anyone who is personally very successful in life. (Its almost as if they feel anyone who knows how to be successful in their own life would be incapable of being a good leader).
I can't help but wonder...WHY???
I can tell you what I think is happening. The two-party system is heaved up on both sides In every 'fight' scenario know throughout the history of the world, people (who are behind it systems) grow tire of speaking and talking to each other. Then comes into play yet another form of the struggle. Call it: When "Ying tries to mop the floor with Yang" And, vice-versa. Both sides have proponents yelling in the ranks: "Just do it already!"
All the trivial, trite, and familiar political game strategies have not dislodged what either extremes are long for, and so the 'combatants' in a series of elections have removed the "agreeable middle" and thrown up battlements and are preparing siege irons and holding camps for the captured.
We are in the dug-in stage. However, our extremists everywhere are threatening to attack. . . .
Of course Roosevelt was a really nasty racist-- but as you just mentioned, its all relative.
I would venture that Bloomberg has less than a 10% chance at winning the Democratic nomination.
Might be interesting to see if he donates to the eventual Democratic candidate.
Bloomberg's entry is about as much about the over 40% independent vote as it is about the democrats and I know a whole lot of indies like myself who want a moderate with a smart head.
I can see that--if he were entering as an independent. But I don't see enough Democrats backing him, especially coming late to the dance.
And if he isn't the nominee, but enters as an independent, Democrats, I feel, will scorch him for it.
Let's be real, Texan. If there was an independent party I would agree with you, but the two parties have made sure that there are only two parties.
As for Dems backing him, only time will tell. If he is last man standing (so to speak), they will back him.
I see no path for him to get the nomination.
And I remember when people said the same thing about Trump.
Trump was the media attention frontrunner from the first moment he announced. He's good entertainment.
Bloomberg isn't.
I like him, and I would definitely consider voting for him, but I'm not sure I see him getting past the looney left in the primaries.
"I see no path for him to get the nomination."
The Democratic primaries award delegates proportionately. If Bloomberg can get himself to the convention I can think of 50 billion reasons that whorehouse would put him on the ticket.
It may be a long shot but it's not ridiculous.
Winning the general election? I could see him easily losing to Trump.
I would say this will be as different a paradigm as Trump was.
Bloomberg doesn't want to be entertainment. He wants to eat Trump for lunch. How do I know? Hey, it was an almost daily event here in NY. Bloomberg always won.
But the major part of the paradigm that is different is that I am getting the feeling from his press conference, is that he knows the Dems have a loony left to deal with, and his way of dealing with them, is not dealing with them at all. He said that if he doesn't make the DNC qualifications for being on the debates, he will take the message directly to the people. That makes him the master of his own destiny. It could be interesting.
Why?
One issue voting mentality. Depending upon how many voters base their votes on the economy (very critical for 2nd term votes), if the economy is still good then Trump has a major advantage on top of incumbency. That is, their top priority might be not rocking the boat. Not sure many people realize how little positive effect a PotUS has on our economy.
But they can certainly have a very negative effect.
Trump has managed not to derail the train, which I agree would favor him in the general election no matter who the opponent is.
However unlike Sanders and Warren, Bloomberg certainly engenders the confidence that the economy would be in safe hand were he to win the WH.
Agreed! Glad to see you carefully read what I wrote. Appreciated.
I agree. I do not see Bloomberg causing suppliers or consumers to grow cautious (and thus slow the economy). Proposed radical changes per Sanders and Warren (even though there is no chance that they will achieve their goals) would dissuade economic growth.
Exactly.
You understand completely.
We don't need "entertainment". We need someone who will put the country first and not himself, his family, and foreign dictators like Trump is doing.
Do explain that to the "news" media who spent 18 hours/day covering him, and gave him enough free publicity to put him in the WH.
As if they would listen.
I don't think henhas a chance.
There are two things going against him:
1. He's too intelligent-- the najority of voters are turned off by that.
2. He's too sucessful-- a significant segment of the Democratic Party has fairly recently developed a real hatred of people who are sucessful (well, with the possible exception of show business celebrities and athlete).
Have you checked your IRA since Trump was elected?
Has there not been any significant change? I suppose that's possible...???)
Yes. But I think it depends on how he presents himself. If he's direct and plain spoken, he won't have a problem.
When you consider the last non-Ivy League president was Ronald Reagan, being "too intelligent" is clearly an obstacle people manage to overcome.
The Democratic Party is struggling through finding an identity right now. The weakness left by the Hillary campaign has opened the door for the radical nutjob left to move into the vacuum. Biden, Bloomberg, Pete and Amy understand that the WH will be won by the party who best communicates with the rational center. The intelligent people are currently prevailing, so that bodes well for Bloomberg.
The question becomes whether or not he's a better candidate than Biden. I think he probably is, but I realize a lot of traditional Democrats won't agree because he's coming in from "the outside".
Do you attribute stock market growth to Trump? (That would surprise me if you did.) Also, the stock market is not the economy so the question is a little off.
Has he? Or is he just supporting background checks?
That's an interesting question. And the answer is not as simple as it might at first seem to be.
In most discussions here, the answers people give are based on their political biases, not any knowledge of the actual facts. Not surprisingly, most Democrats say any current rises in the market are mainly the results of earlier actions, i.e. Obama's policies set the market up for continued success-- its wasn't because of Trump. And some people actually claim that the market did better under the Obama administration than it does under Trump.
Republicans, not surprisingly, say the opposite (its rise is due to Trump).
None of which surprises me-- because in most discussions, most people's views (On most political topics!) are shaped by their innate biases-- not by actual facts. Because most people online are fairly uninformed about most topics.
And that doesn't stop them from expressing their opinions (which more often than not they sincerely believe are actually facts-- even though they may not be factual.
Its a matter of values, actually. For some people its more important to prosteltyze. their polirical biases than to discover the truth-- the actual facts. For others (a minority) discovering the actual facts is the priority.
And why not? There's really no downside on social media in posting things that aren't true. No matter what political POV you express, on sites such as NT that allow participation of people with varying opinions, no matter what you claim, there will inevitably be people who jump to your defense.
Because the predominant vibe here is to prostelytize one's own political biases-- and not to discover the truth.
(cont'd in next comment).
My position is that the PotUS has a weak and indirect influence on the stock market (and on the economy for that matter). The most potent thing a PotUS can do is always negative. That is, a PotUS can screw things up, but making things better is largely just being lucky to be the one in office during the up cycle.
The stock market is different from the economy, obviously.
Trump has been excellent for the markets. His influence on the economy has been very slight.
So, given those factors-- is the rise in the market due to Trump's policies-- or Obama's?
Or-- neither?
Well, first of all let me say that I've actually studied the matter. And there's both good news and bad news for political partisans of both parties!
Simply stated, when Obama started his first term the economy was in pretty bad shape. Throughout his term, however, the market basically moved upward-- by the end of his presidency, the stock market was much higher than when he begun!
But what about Trump? Well, ironically the pattern has been similar-- over time the market has kept moving higher over time.
Finally, it should be noted that the slope of the line (the rate of rise of the stock market averages) has been steeper starting shortly after Trump was elected.
In other words-- a few key points:
1. For both presidents from the beginning of their presidency their market has trended upwards over time. (of course there are always occasional short term corrections, but the overall upward trend has been undeniable).
2. Under Trump the market has moved upwards faster than under Obama-- but the overall trend under Obama had also been positive.
3. Of course the actions of the president are not the only factor. Basically, the reason the market (and the overall economy) has done so well is the creativity, innovation, and intelligence of American capitalist entrepreneurs, not any government. Exceptionally intelligent creative entrepreneurs have had the freedom to express their creativity in a way that is possible in few other places on earth, if any!
(The main role a government seems to possibly have is to restrict this ingenuity being expressed-- as is the case in totalitarian governments elsewhere-- of both the Left and the Right).
4. Despite criticism of Obama from the right, Capitalism has done quite well under Obama-- and even more so under Trump.
(cont'd from comment # 3, 1, 27):
The reason the growth that the economy has showed under Obama accelerated even more underTrump is mainly due to two factors under the Trump administration:
A-The Tax Cuts
B-Cutting of many regulations which hinder profits
(That being said, while I think both the tax cuts and the ending of some excessive regulations were basically good ideas, I take issue with the way in which they were done.
I think the POTUS is in a position to manipulate the stock market at certain points for short term results to those in the loop. ie; chinese and WH public communications regarding trade/tariff negotiations and accompanying temporary effect on the market.
I agree but only to the degree that the PotUS can affect (vs 'manipulate' which implies control) the stock market. It is indirect at best with no guarantee of achieving the desired results. Kind of like trying to guide a N polarity magnet on a table using another N polarity magnet. You will cause the magnet to move but the direction is almost unpredictable and your corrections will typically miss the mark.
I take your meaning, Sir! Now that is a 'handicap.'
Of course by choosing to be an "independent" and not registering as a Democrat, those moderates don't have a say in whether or not Bloomberg gets the nomination.
And since he says he won't run as an independent, Bloomberg has very little chance of running.
(The issue at this point re: Bloomberg is not the general election-- since he'llonly run if he get's the Dem. nomination. (And "independents" will be no help in that regard as only registered democrats can vots in the dem primaries-- at least in most states).
They will also note that he made is fortune trading on the work of the people he employed,
But you could say that about every business-- even a small one once the hire their first employee!
That's how a business works. Even one that starts as a "one man or one woman show" decides to expand so they hire a person. Without extra help they can't grow. But if they pay a decent wage and provide decent working conditions I don't se it as unfairly "exploiting' the person they hire. (In fact they are helping them bgy providing a job).
and more importantly on the people investing making and or losing their own wealth.
I own apart (a tiny part) of several businesses. I.e. I own ther stocks. As a stockholder I don't feel unfairly exploited-- in fact I am happy to have the opportunity to invest in well run businesses. Which means choosing to risk some of my money by investing in a well run business which also provides the opportunity to share in the profits. Over the years I've invested enough so that now they've given me the opportunity to increase my income by investing in their companies (they do all the work-- I just invest some money!)
Its my choice to invest-- no one is forcing me to buy their stock! (But I am grateful for the opportunity they've given me to increase my income as well as my net worth.
Bloomberg is charting an original course and at this point I do not know how the D electorate will react. Thus I will wait for some data before making any predictions.
If you consider polls to be data he's starting out weak.
We need to let this news disseminate and give people a chance to digest it. Critically, we need to see Bloomberg respond to media questions and to engage in at least one debate. At that point the polling data will start to be relevant to me.
Brilliant analysis: all based on soft drinks. Well, that will certainly open eyes - such a valuable (and predictable) contribution.
Less is more only if your 'less' offers information.
Yes, a joke; no analysis just simplistic snark.
Fabricating claims ... another slimy tactic of intellectual dishonesty.
You presume I have something against billionaires in general?
I am against a-holes regardless of their wealth and regardless of their origins.
Now that I believe.
As opposed to fake million a-hole from NY that you seem to have voted for?
I'll go with the self-made billionaire every time, from anywhere, if he is qualified.
Then you didn't vote for Trump then, right?
And if you're going to talk to me, stop with the potty mouth.
Life is much easier if one thinks in terms of large simple blocks rather than deal with details and analysis. Reasoning via stereotype ... brilliant.
So you didn't vote for tRump because he's not a billionaire.
My comment was regarding this (which I quoted to you for clarity):
You come back talking specifically about Bloomberg coming late to the party. That does not explain your automatic rejection of anybody from New York.
See?
If you want to express your personal opinion distinct from your political analysis then you should actually do so in words. This, which I explicitly quoted in my comment for clarity on what I was referring to, ...
... is stereotypical and simplistic. If you wish to retract or amend your comment that is fine with me (in fact, I recommend it). But pretending you did not write this is not going to fool anyone.
I love how you cause FW to keep on
I have a pretty good idea.
One major problem for him:isthe recent increase of hatred towards successful people amongst many Dems.
(Not t mention the oiverwhelming influence Black voters have in Dem. primaries-- much, much more than they have in the general election BTW). And what many of them are talking about now is Bloomberg's policies (and comments!) about "Stop and Frisk" when he was mayor.
(Yes, he's apologized--but that won't cut it with most Black voters)
I agree-- its too early to make accurate predictions as to who will win the Dem, nomination.
But it pays to keep a few things in mind-- factors that will hurt Bloomberg's chances to some degree:
1. While the percentage of African-Americans in the overall population is relatively small, its large amongst Democrats. Blacks play a significant role in the Dem. Primary. And the vast majority of them prefer Biden (because he was picked by the first Black president to be his V.P.).
2, In addition, many Blacks remain upset by Bloomberg's support of "Stop and Frisk" policies while he was mayor. (They disproportionately targeted Blacks and Hispanics).
3. There is a strong (and recently increasing) level of dislike-- even hatred-- in the Dem. Party against successful people.
4. While anti-Semitism is not not nearly as prevalent in the U.S. as it is in many other cuntries, its definitely been increasing in recent years. (IMO while this country was open to electing a partly African-American as president, we are not yet ready to elect a Jew).
In other words, while I could be wrong, the odds of Bloomberg winning the Dem. nomination are close to nil.
That you did! And it is a warning to the aware (I hope Bloomberg has 'got' wind of it) that 'oppo' research, talking points and soundbites about Bloomberg are deliverables already! ("Arise Sarah Palin! there is work for you and your "Nanny state' repertoire.")
Between the three of them, Sanders, Warren and Biden currently have the bulk of Democratic support. Sanders and Warren supporters won't like Bloomberg for the same reason they don't like Biden-- too moderate for their tastes.
And while much of Biden's support comes from peoplewho prefer a moderate that's not the whole story-- much of his support comes from Black Democrats who like him because he was Obama's pick for V.P. And most Black voters do not like Bloomberg at all (they still haven't forgiven him for "Stop and frisk).
Finally, in many states self-declared "independents" who might like Bloombergs more moderate policies have given up their power to influence the outcome becasuer only registered Democrats can vote in the primaries. (While these "independents" might want to vote for Bloomberg in ther general election, they won't be able to do that unless he wins the Dem primary. (he's said he wopn'trun as an independent and I totally believe him).
So basically his odds of getting elected are closed to zero.
The ignorant will vote for whoever promises the most (that will be impossible to fulfill).
And it's billionaire a-holes from NY.
OK. So you hate Bloomberg and Trump.
But how do you feel about billionaires from other places? Say, for example, Billionaires from Texas?
So you're not a Trump supporter after all!
(And he used to be a Democrat-- here's is is at a wedding of some of his very dear Democratic friends-- he and Hillary are all smiles!):
Pot. Kettle. Black.
You are amazed, eh? Well let me clear up your confusion.
You are the only one who knows fully what you mean. If you express your meaning in a vague fashion you have left out critical information necessary for your readers to disambiguate — to narrow down the many possible meanings of your comment. They will naturally ask you to be more specific. Your typical response to that is to imply your readers are stupid. I think most here know that this is not a result of stupid readers but rather intentional ambiguity so that you can slither out of a challenge.
It's too late.
Perhaps. But this is far too complex to be certain of anything at this point.
I don't think it's that complex. It's timing and I think the window of opportunity has closed. Its going to take something extraordinary for him to slip in and take the lead.
Sadly the Dems do not have a solid group of candidates that have remained standing. I personally liked Bennett. Pete is another candidate I could get behind because he isn't extreme but he hasn't catered enough to minorities, according to the minorities. Then again, Trump won without a majority of minorities so......
I agree. If Pete can't get the minority vote, no way could he win an election. The Democrats' base would surely vote for someone else.
Trump didn't get the minority vote and he won
And the GOP base isn't comprised of that many minorities.
I don't see any Democrat winning a national election if they are unable to capture a significant share of the minority vote.
I don't know if you can show me a single election since 1960 where the Democrat who won didn't do that.
Maybe but I do think those who are not absolute racists want to start distancing themselves from Trump. They will move over to a moderate candidate and away from Trump.
The voting trend is changing. I suspect we will have a handful of elections remaining that can be won without majority minority votes but afterwards it will require the majority. just my opinion.
Actually, it could have just as easily gone the way of the Dems. You seem to forget what really lost the election. It was Hillary's arrogance and not doing her due diligence by going to the states she should have gone to, and insulting a whole other bunch of the electorate. Even with that, she won the popular vote, so really, Trump didn't win a mandate. He won technically.
Same thing happened with the Tea Party taking over the sane Republicans.
And I remember when Trump came down the golden escalator, everyone said that he would never be president. I don't forecast anymore.
Bloomberg hasn't come into the race with any type of fanfare the way trump did. But you're right. I didn't anticipate the number of stupid and racist Americans here. It was shocking and still is.
What percentage of Trump's base is stupid and racist? Give us a workable figure.
You are aware that I'm not running for office so I doubt I'll lose any votes over my comment. Anyhow, the country is already fucked for generations to come because of Trump and his base.
Waving going down a golden escalator was hardly fanfare. We can look back at the past papers and see that most saw it as a joke. That was a mistake.
Yeah....I disagree. The economy doesn't improve in an instant. It's based on steps and policies implemented sometimes years in advance. We are simply surviving through sheer will but my comment wasn't referring to the economy. It was in reference to the incivility and willful ignorance to accept facts.
Do you have your tRump supporters pay in advance? I would
Well....nobody does anything with the type of fanfare Trump does.
The question is whether or not Democrats have seen enough fanfare.
Bloomberg can manhandle Trump in an election. It remains to be seen whether there are enough Democrats who are practical enough for him to get the nomination.
Jack, I couldn't agree more.
It was most definitely fanfare. It was hyped up and the media was there to cover it.
The media was there to mock it.
Agreed but that doesn't make it less fanfare. I'm not sure we are disagreeing here
Well if you talk about fanfare as media coverage, then I guess we are agreeing. Are you basically going with that there is no such thing as bad publicity?
Yes
I see two things that are going to bite Bloomberg in the ass from the start.
First, he is a billionaire. That is a big no no for today's democratic party. You can see how well Steyer is doing. In addition, I understand in one of his commercials he is blasting billionaires by showing pictures of Trump Tower in NY. What he does not disclose is he is worth much, much more than Trump. People will catch onto that.
Second, he was the mayor that backed "stop and frisk" in NY, something that, from what I hear, disproportionately target minorities. He did go on an apology tour to say he was sorry for that, but it was 12 long years of minorities getting stopped for no other reason than they were minorities. The black and Hispanic population will not vote for him. If they want a white billionaire, Trump has done for more positive things for them than pretty much any other politician, hence his rise in minority approval.
It looks like Bloomberg approves of an older white billionaire for President. He may as well go ahead and throw his support for Trump, as that older white billionaire has a far better chance of winning than the one he wants to win.
I agree.
The Hispanic population is low hanging fruit. All he needs to do is talk about intelligent immigration reform that actually welcomes new workers and recognizes their value to the US economy. His grandparents were immigrants. Easy connection to make, and he's more than smart enough to do it. The fact that nobody else is talking about it makes it that much easier.
Exactly Jack.
Do you walk to school . . . or carry your lunch?
If Bloomberg wins the nomination (which would really piss off the "Left" if that happens), does that mean the "Blue Dogs" can make a comeback again ?
My dad is a blue dog and he is voting for Bloomberg. Mom is an indie like me. They fight a lot, LOL!
Ain't Politics Great ?
My Dad was a Reagan type conservative, and my Mom was a Kennedy type Democrat. They argued "Inflexibly/Flexible" with each other.
LOL.. sounds like my childhood. My parents fought over Vietnam endlessly.
Nah. She'll keep you anyway if you vote for someone else. Matt has kept me over the years when I've disappointed him.
Just don't make her mad or she might do to you what my mom did to my dad when he pissed her off....sewed the flys shut on all of his underwear.
And what about the Blue cats? (Especially the Russian Ones!)
Are they disloyal to America? (I bet Fox news would label them Socialists . . . ???
Not sure how Trump was able to avoid it but he doesn’t have the annoying accent Bloomberg has. That alone will turn off much of middle America. And he makes low energy Jeb look like the energizer bunny.
Trump's accent is horrible. Apparently accents don't matter that much to middle America.
Well, covfefe to that.
LMAO!!!!
The accent doesn't bother me. That sing-songy cadence to his speech makes my right eye twitch, though.
I listened to about 5 minutes of his speech to the UN before I had to turn it off.
I can't stand listening to him.
Maybe he was channeling his inner Madonna.
Its true-- with all that's going on in America (and the world) most Americans base their votes on really stupid factors.
I just googled him and found out his net worth is over $54 Billion.
Yep-- that's Billion,not Million.
And unlike Trump, he earned it himself.
He ran for mayor in heavily Democratic NYC on the Republican ticket-- and won.(Three times!)
He's helped numerous worthy charities become increasingly effective through his charitable giving.
According to the Chronicle of Philanthropy , Bloomberg was the third-largest philanthropic donor in America in 2015
If you consider that "low energy" ..I wish we had more politicians with that sort of energy!
Perhaps you value people more who talk big, but actually accomplish little?
And another loser is added to the Democratic mix.
Super Tuesday is on March 3rd. It is not "a year away". Time is really very short. Considering Bloomberg is late to both the race and to The Democratic Party his odds are actually quite low. Also, Democrats are not prejudiced against successful people so much as we are tired of extremely wealthy persons feeling entitled or thinking they can just just buy their nomination.
He has already begun to campaign. Also, I am not sure when it became a sin to do well at the American Dream. Isn't that what the Dems are selling to everyone else? He wasn't born rich. He made his wealth and he is beyond generous with it.
What the Dems have yet to come to terms with, is that to win the election, they have to get the independent vote. This is something that Trump tapped into. Unless you want a repeat of the last election, you better start to count your numbers.
Independents cannot even vote in the NY Democratic primary. If you really want to support Bloomberg then you had better first become a Democrat. In reality Bloomberg has huge obstacles to overcome. Show me a poll where Bloomberg is beating Joe Biden then you can worry about him beating Trump...
All polls show Biden with a big lead over Trump!
First of all, many indies are forced to join a party in NY, since the party system made it impossible for them to vote in primaries, which is wrong, in my opinion.
Yes, Bloomberg is facing an uphill battle. I am not worried.
And polls mean nothing, or have you not learned that from the last election?
Lately, not so much.
Lately there's been a push with some (not all) to solve problems with government handout rather than empowering people to suceed on their own.
Sort of a case of it "being better to give people fish" than "teaching them to fish"
(Of course this trend is not just with Democrats-- Trump has been giving money to Soybean farmers*-- due to his stupid tariff policies which prevent many farmers from succeeding by their own efforts)...which is what most farmers prefer.
--------.
*Trump has been giving money to Soybean farmers. (Some people would call that "Socialism"..)
Why should they? Democrats should be able to pick the candidates they want to run on the Democratic ticket (a right Republicans and other parties should have as well).
But IIRC, some of the state systems are crazy-- in some states both Democrats & republicans can vote in the other parties primaries!
Yes. In fact, if you want to support Warren, or Sanders, or Biden...in fact if you want to support any Democrat for the Democratic primary nomination...you have to be a registered Democrat!
Makes sense to me.
Why do you find that strange?
for president. currently, I have.
how that translates in the democrat primary? I don't know.. and have no interest.
but for president? I have nailed every presidential election including / since 04
But how did you conduct your poll-- did you ask 18 of your friends?
Well aren't you special!
(That's nothing-- I nailed every presidential election since 1492-- and that was before they even had presidential elections! )
so you knew trump would win also?
good for you
LOL
it is not a poll
basically all im saying is trump is just a tad over 4 times more likely to win than bloomberg and just over ten times more likely to win than biden or warren
simple math. and thanks to internet betting I also get paid every 4 yrs. honestly, I keep expecting it to fail at some point but that has not happened yet. so "let it ride.. lol
I don't expect anyone to believe me and that is what makes it so fun.
have ya seen the movie magic town ? it exists online in a weird sort of way.
cheers
In my younger days, I nailed half of the 7th fleet.
Paula??? ???
I was kidding.
Whew! (Smile.) That was worth waiting to get a clarification! I mean, reallllyyy! (LOL!)
I tend to have a warped sense of humor. In actuality it was like one sailor.
You're my kind of woman, Ms. Paula! Do it till you satisfied . That one is one for you and "Mr. Goody." (Smile.)