Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
President Donald Trump’s stock market stacks up well against the majority of his presidential predecessors.
The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since Trump was elected, more than double the 23% average market return of presidents three years into their term, according data from Bespoke Investment Group dating to 1928.
Despite the volatility from the U.S.-China trade war, 2019 has been a year of all-time highs for the major stock averages. The S&P 500 crossed 3,200 for the first time ever last week, hitting its seventh round-number milestone of 2019. While business investment slumped due to uncertainty surrounding the world’s two largest economies, public market investors remained confident enough to put money into stocks.
Trump’s market got a boost from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank, which lowered interest rates three times this year, the first time since the end of the financial crisis. The Fed slashed rates on fears of slowing growth at home and abroad. Trump was highly critical of Powell for not lowering rates more and faster, often mentioning the near $15 trillion in negative yielding government securities outside the U.S.
Markets were also helped by one of the tightest labor markets in history, with the unemployment rate currently at 3.5%, its lowest since 1969. And since Americans were working, they were also spending. The strong U.S. consumer held the economy up during some reported manufacturing contractions. Consumers also held strong amid a messy bond market, when shorter-term bond yields rose above long-term yields, causing the yield curve to invert, a phenomenon known to precede recessions. The curve has since steepened and is no longer inverted.
Trump’s third year is above average, but not the best of any past president. In 2013, former President Barack Obama’s stock market returned more than 32%, as the economy bounced back from the Great Recession.
Trump’s first year was about triple the presidential average, with the S&P 500 gaining 19.4% compared with the average 5.7%.
Businesses got help from Trump’s 2017 tax overhaul, with companies buying a record number of shares back with the extra money.
The sore spot for Trump’s record was year two. Trump’s market had a below average year in 2018, when the stock market suffered its worst December since the Great Depression amid the intensified U.S.-China trade war and a rate increase from the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 fell 6.2%, compared with the average gain of 4.5%.
A strong fourth year?
If history is any guide, Trump is in for another strong year in 2020.
Stocks are up in year four more than 66% of the time and the S&P 500 returns an average of 5.7%, according to Bespoke.
While Trump is confident about a strong market next year, Wall Street is forecasting much more modest gains. The av erage S&P 500 target for 2020 among analyst on Wall Street is 3,330, less than 4% higher than Tuesday’s close. Trump will need a 6% gain in the S&P 500 to beat the average presidential return.
Tags
Who is online
88 visitors
My rate of return on my 401k is great this year...higher percentage than what is quoted in the article. Other investments I have up too. It has been an excellent year.
Why anyone wants the US to fail is disturbing.
Why anyone would want Trump to be president is more disturbing.
Trumpster crackpots act as if the US was a third world country before Trump took office and saved everyone. It is beyond bizarre.
You prefer people to not have jobs, I understand. Perhaps if it was you who went through some horrible financial difficulties in the Obama years, you would feel different. Except selfish people do not care about how others are going to live and prosper.
In my area we have 2500 new good paying jobs coming next year and although you don't give a shit, those who live in this area do.
I can't stand reading your stupid shit anymore.
[deleted]
Sunshine, was the US a third world country when Bush II and Obama were president?
It does appear that the economy is slightly better than it was before Trump took office, which is a natural progression during an economic recovery. Had Clinton won, or if Jeb Bush or Cruz were president now it is highly likely we would have a roughly similar economy as we have now. Trumpsters fall into the misperception that only he can do this. It's pretty silly. Particularly given the fact that he is massively unfit to be president of the United States, psychologically, intellectually, and by his lack of character.
And they weren't last election either, yet some idiots still voted for one.
Yes there is, a lot of bullshit coming from the sanctimonious crowd.
Well they can have the site.
The economy then crashed a decade later, under a Republican. When a Democrat again took office the situation was stabilized and began to slowly improve. At the start of Obama's presidency some economists said it could take up to 10 years to overcome the effects of the 2008 crash.
Had McCain won in 2008 is it your argument that things would have been so much better? What is the evidence of that?
The Great Recession of 2008 and all the bank bailouts were because of lack of regulation on the banksters which they took advantage of with all their subprime mortgage shenanigans. Had the proper rules against over leveraging been in place on Wall St. the crash never would have happened.
To be fair, Clinton was driven toward that middle by a Republican dominated congress. It was really the last time the Executive and Legislative branches worked together and compromised.
The fact that doesn't happen anymore should piss everyone off. We're all getting screwed and too many drones on both sides don't have the mental faculties to make the connection ..... it's pretty sad to say the least
And make no mistake about it, both parties and multiple Presidents of both parties, have their fingerprints all over that mess
Whatever you said about the dumb democrats currently running for President had to be pretty darned good. 👍
All too many such....It will be fewer this time.
Indeed there is....Just win the election for Trump and let em whine 🍷to their hearts content while we laugh 😂 and offer some cheese 🧀 to go. And no, don’t give them the echo chamber ❄️they seek.
Trump offered compromise to house democrats on a variety of issues. Just wait until next June when the Supreme Court approves executive order countering Obama’s on DACA and right before the democrat party convention he reissues that eventual citizenship offer for original DACA recipients in exchange for all the border security he seeks. Would they turn that down again knowing the original DACA is gone?
Ironic that it is primarily the progressive liberal left that insists on calling him such. Many on the left just cannot stand or stomach the idea that those on the right do not share their particular political views or their undisguised hatred of anything conservative or right leaning. I myself am not particularly fond of a lot of what Trump says or does. I am just a lot less fond of the brand of progressive leftist liberalism so prevalent in the Democratic party these days.
Only because the folks doing the whining and complaining cannot give credit to one of their own...
Trump has not come even close to level of compromise that Clinton was forced into and accepted. But then again it wouldn't matter if he did. Congressional Dems hatred for Trump is too great, much greater than anything towards Clinton in that era. They will NEVER compromise with Trump. Not in any substantial way. No way
Like Maher and others hoping for a recession? Yes, it's very disturbing to know that some so-called "Americans" hope that hard-working Americans will fail.
I don't know about you folks but i'm still waiting for my Obama phone .....
Although every PotUS has been praised and chastised for the economy under his watch, there really is very little that a PotUS can do to make a strong economy. Short of being favorable towards business (which Trump is) the economy is far too complex and multidimensional. Economists dream of a day when they have the clear answers on how to make an economy work.
A PotUS can, however, cause harm to the economy. Taxation and high interest rates is probably the prime example of a spending killer. High energy (and thus prices) is another. So for those PotUS' who have had the good fortune of a good economy during their watch we can at least say that they did not do anything to screw it up. But to give them credit for a healthy economy is like giving credit to a doctor for an unexpected (and unexplained) awakening from a long coma.
The last PotUS to have the good fortune of being in office during a boom was Clinton. He is still riding that wave of glory. Now, the lucky recipient is Trump.