Ahead of 2020 election, a 'Blue Wave' is rising in the cities, polling analysis shows
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
NEW YORK (Reuters) - As Republican President Donald Trump seeks a second term in November, Americans’ interest in voting is growing faster in large cities dominated by Democrats than in conservative rural areas, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos national opinion polls.
f the trend lasts until Election Day on Nov. 3, it would be a reversal from the 2016 election when rural turnout outpaced voting in urban areas, helping Trump narrowly win the White House.
The finding, based on responses from more than 88,000 U.S. adults who took the online poll from August to December 2015 or from August to December 2019, suggests that the “Blue Wave,” a swell of anti-Trump activism that followed his entry into the White House in 2017, is still rolling across the country’s largest population centers.
Even as Trump commands rock-solid support among Republicans, voters’ interest in going to the polls appears to be growing faster among those who disapprove of Trump than among those who approve of him, according to experts who reviewed the data.
The advantage in urban political engagement extends deep into the most competitive battleground states that Trump won by razor-thin margins four years ago, the data shows.
In large urban areas of the upper Midwest, a region that includes swing states Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, the number of people who said they were “certain” to vote in the upcoming presidential election rose by 10 percentage points to 67% compared with survey responses from 2015.
In smaller upper Midwest communities, the number of people similarly dedicated to voting rose by only about 1 point to 60% in that same four-year period.
Overall, the number of “certain” voters rose by 7 percentage points nationally from 2015 to 2019. It increased by more than that in the largest metropolitan areas, rising by 9 points in communities with between 1 million and 5 million people and 8 points in metros with at least 5 million people.
Smaller and rural communities lagged behind. The number of “certain” voters rose by 5 points in sparsely populated, Republican-dominated “non-metro” areas.
The rise in urban political engagement helped Democrats win political victories last year, including governor’s races in conservative-leaning Kentucky and Louisiana.
It may have also contributed to elevated voting levels in some of the more heavily populated communities and college towns in Iowa and New Hampshire, which held their presidential nominating contests earlier this month.
“Democrats are very angry,” said Nicholas Valentino, a political scientist at the University of Michigan, who reviewed some of the poll findings for Reuters.
“Many see this administration as an existential threat to the constitutional order. They’re standing ready to participate to try to change the course of this country.”
the rest https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-enthusiasm-exclusive-idUSKBN20D1EG
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As long as Trump keeps on being Trump, which is inevitable because he likes being an asshole, a blue wave is a good possibility.
The Democrats are too busy beating up on each other to be any threat to Trump.
Once the voters see what worthless chumps the Dems are, Trump's reelection is assured.
His "being an asshole" has kept the left and Democrats (and you) crying for almost 4 years now.
Its kind of entertaining.
I think what we have learned in 2016 and again in the current democratic primaries, remains true.
Polling is faulty.
Crowd size has been the one true indicator of election results.
Democrats generally dont have huge Trump like rallies because they dont attract the type of mentality that wants to be part of a mob shouting "lock her up" about someone who has already been exonerated by the criminal justice system.
Some do - Bernie Sanders for one. The point is the one who couldn't draw flies - that being Joe Biden - who led the national polls over all other democrats. WE KNEW THE POLLING HAD TO BE WRONG! DIDN'T WE?
What does 'they just mass' mean?
and the most appropriate.........................
You're welcome
No, they don't have rallies because no one gives a shit to come out and see them. Any democratic candidate running right now couldn't fill a closet if they wanted to. I loved Trump's dig at Hillary at the al smith dinner before the 2016 elections where he called it her "largest crowd of the season". The guy is comedy gold.
Yeah, the big fat turd is as funny as a heart attack.
I was asking muva to translate his usual incoherent gibberish.
I didn't ask you anything.
The mentality they Democrats draw closely resemble the "Walkers" from The Walking Dead. Brain function is the same. They can't think for themselves either.
I don't think either side should start celebrating just yet.
Could be if you promise enough free crap at the expense of the working man the drunks, drug addicts and lazy bums will vote.
But that blue wave isn't the same as it was in 2008. The 2020 election is about the future of the Democratic Party. Democrats are fighting among themselves to determine what the Democratic Party will become. The party establishment has created a political vacuum that allows grassroots activism greater hope for reshaping the Democratic Party.
A divided party cannot rely on voter turnout in the general election. None of the Democratic candidates have demonstrated ability to unify the party. That's why there are four or five close contenders at this late date. The grassroots want more than just defeating Trump.