New Figures Show Countries Are Turning the Corner on Coronavirus, But Democrats Need Us Scared
We should be careful take precautions and prevent panic. Good advice here.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
First, I am not an epidemiologist. I’m not a doctor. I’m not even a med student. I have a master’s in public policy and took one lonely health policy class (that wasn’t even very helpful). That, and some first-responder training are about all the medical expertise I have, so take what’s below with at least a grain of salt.
Coronavirus is here. It’s contagious. It’s deadly. And aside from Mueller, Kavanaugh and impeachment, it’s hard to think of another story the media has been so excited about over the last three-and-a-half years.
At first, the media’s concern was warranted. An exotic virus pops up in China and begins spreading quickly. Then it turns out to be deadly (never mind that it’s deadly in the vast minority of cases and those are overwhelmingly contained within the age 70+ demographic). Then it goes international. Then the media chatter starts to spook markets that depend on China. Then market corrections start. That’s the stuff of a media feeding frenzy, and feed the media has.
Stories abound about new cases, new borders crossed and new famous and/or powerful people quarantining themselves.
Those stories, however, don’t really get at the root question we need to ask at this point in the drama.
The question we should be asking is whether or not the daily number of new cases is increasing inside different countries.
Until the virus is eradicated entirely, new cases will continue to pop up. That’s definitionally true. And as long as there are new cases and enough people traveling internationally, the virus will cross borders.
These shouldn’t be novel concepts, though the media continues to treat them as new apostolic revelations.
What’s far more helpful than the plain number of new cases is the number of new cases compared to the previous day. If daily new cases increase over time, then the contagion hasn’t peaked and more concern is warranted.
If, however, the number of daily new cases begins to decrease over time, it’s likely a critical milestone has been hit and the virus is on its way to being controlled if not eradicated (for all intents and purposes).
If new cases consistently decrease day after day, the eventual elimination of the virus is inevitable — eventually, the new case count hits zero and stays there.
(Of course, someone’s always going to have a pesky strain of the flu or common cold — but as far as the survival of humanity goes, the new case count will be essentially zero.)
Sure, the media may report new numbers as they become available, but a consistent comparison of new case counts day over day is exactly what I’m not seeing anywhere in the media. Maybe it’s being reported, and I’ve just missed it, but so far I haven’t seen it anywhere — and I look at a lot of news each day.
So what does that count look like? It looks like light at the end of the tunnel (assuming that a tunnel even exists and wasn’t created by media hysteria in the first place).
Take China for example. New cases reported peaked on Feb. 12, but since that was due largely in part to a reporting hiccup, let’s take the next day as our peak. Feb. 13 saw 5,090 reported new cases of coronavirus in China.
Though small upticks were reported every few days, daily decreases in new cases soon followed, leading to just 327 new cases reported two weeks later on Feb. 27. On March 6, the last day data was reported, there were only 99 new cases .
I shared this information with some people earlier today, and one said, “I don’t trust anything China says.”
That’s a smart guy. But this trend isn’t confined to China.
South Korea’s cases peaked on Mar. 3 with 851 new reports . Six days later, 165 new cases were reported. On Tuesday, 35 new cases were reported.
Iran appears to have peaked on Mar. 6 with 1,234 new cases reported. Three days later, there were 595 new cases. On Tuesday, cases jumped slightly to 881 new reports , so time will tell if the downward trend will continue in the coming days as it did in China and South Korea.
China might have plenty of motivation to hide real numbers, but Iran doesn’t. They’re better off if people think the virus’ presence inside their borders is a proof of a genocidal CIA or Mossad plot.
There’s no more reason to doubt South Korea’s figures than to doubt those of the U.S., France or Germany.
So what to make of all of this?
Coronavirus infections continue to spread, and that is actually dangerous, so wash your hands, don’t share germs more than you have to, and practice good hygiene.
If you’re elderly, be especially careful because the elderly are most likely to experience death from coronavirus or its complications (about 14 percent for those 80 and over). For those under 50, it’s about 0.4 percent.
Moving forward, not only will the virus continue to spread, but daily new cases will continue to grow until the virus peaks on a global level. While new infections in China, South Korea and Iran appear to have peaked, they have not done so in France , Germany , Italy , Spain or the U.S .
In fact, in some of those countries, it appears to just now be taking off. Additionally, the Southern Hemisphere hasn’t been dramatically impacted yet. It likely will be, and the results may be alarming for a while, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. But eventually, the virus will peak there too.
China’s draconian measures may have helped stop the virus’ spread, but those measures aren’t necessary to beat the virus. Neither Iran nor South Korea took the measures China did, yet they both appear to be turning the corner too.
Coronavirus is only tangentially related to oil prices. Yes, any slowdown in Chinese manufacturing will affect oil prices vis a vis consumption. But the sudden drop in oil prices is due to Saudi Arabia dropping their prices dramatically, which is unrelated to the virus. For now, enjoy the cheaper gas and the fact that Saudi islamists and the Russians are making far less money than they were a week ago.
Democrats desperately need coronavirus to continue across the globe, sparking financial panic everywhere it spreads. Only a financial meltdown will stop Trump in November, and they know it.
Do you think the media and Democrats are exaggerating the coronavirus threat?
Having toilet-paperless voters panicking at the polls is exactly what Democrats want and need. That alone should cause every American to question Democrats’ loyalty to the voters.
Once the virus peaks, the economy may well go into overdrive, which is the very last thing Democrats want because, again, Trump will get credit. As of this writing, the Dow is down 19 percent over the last month .
Once the Chinese supply chain has stabilized (and hopefully global manufacturers begin to find alternatives to China) and the public realizes the world isn’t ending, a buying spree should turbocharge stock prices. Will they return to their early February heights?
Who can tell, but a rebound is certain to come, along with store shelves that will once again overflow with toilet paper and hand sanitizer.
Tangentially, until that happens and as long as raising prices on things like toilet paper and sanitizer is viewed as gouging, shortages of toilet paper and sanitizer will continue to exist.
If manufacturers and retailers would raise prices to meet demand, store shelves would be fully stocked at this very moment. But everyone’s afraid the media will call them gougers, so prices stay low, encouraging panic buying and leading to shortages.
Coronavirus is dangerous. It can even be deadly, just like everything else a human being can catch. It is not, however, going to destroy the world, despite the fact that fear on that level is exactly what Democrats want.
But Democrats’ political needs aside, the best we can tell at this point is that in China, a country of 1.4 billion, about 81,000 people have contracted the virus and just over 3,000 have died from it. In other words, in China, the virus has killed 0.0002 percent of the population.
In the U.S., presently, the death total is 0.000009 percent of the population — 31 out of 330 million.
Those deaths are tragic, but they shouldn’t start or propel panic, especially when panic is exactly what the left and the media need to stave off Trump.
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I shared this information with some people earlier today, and one said, “I don’t trust anything China says.”
That’s a smart guy. But this trend isn’t confined to China.
South Korea’s cases peaked on Mar. 3with 851 new reports . Six days later, 165 new cases were reported. On Tuesday, 35 new cases were reported.
Iran appears to have peaked on Mar. 6with 1,234 new cases reported. Three days later, there were 595 new cases. On Tuesday, cases jumped slightly to 881 new reports , so time will tell if the downward trend will continue in the coming days as it did in China and South Korea.
China might have plenty of motivation to hide real numbers, but Iran doesn’t. They’re better off if people think the virus’ presence inside their borders is a proof of a genocidal CIA or Mossad plot.
There’s no more reason to doubt South Korea’s figures than to doubt those of the U.S., France or Germany.
So what to make of all of this?
Coronavirus infections continue to spread, and that is actually dangerous, so wash your hands, don’t share germs more than you have to, and practice good hygiene.
If you’re elderly, be especially careful because the elderly are most likely to experience death from coronavirus or its complications (about 14 percent for those 80 and over). For those under 50, it’s about 0.4 percent.
Moving forward, not only will the virus continue to spread, but daily new cases will continue to grow until the virus peaks on a global level. While new infections in China, South Korea and Iran appear to have peaked, they have not done so in France , Germany , Italy , Spain or the U.S .
In fact, in some of those countries, it appears to just now be taking off. Additionally, the Southern Hemisphere hasn’t been dramatically impacted yet. It likely will be, and the results may be alarming for a while, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. But eventually, the virus will peak there too.
China’s draconian measures may have helped stop the virus’ spread, but those measures aren’t necessary to beat the virus. Neither Iran nor South Korea took the measures China did, yet they both appear to be turning the corner too.
Coronavirus is only tangentially related to oil prices. Yes, any slowdown in Chinese manufacturing will affect oil prices vis a vis consumption. But the sudden drop in oil prices is due to Saudi Arabia dropping their prices dramatically, which is unrelated to the virus.
I'll trust WHO over some idiots opinion.
Coronavirus becomes a pandemic: What to know about the classification
"WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction"- @ DrTedros # COVID19
"We have therefore made the assessment that # COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic"- @ DrTedros # coronavirus
We have nothing to fear but fear itself. Democrats though want to keep us afraid, very afraid. Regardless, the Wuhan virus is being handled well. Looking forward to what the President will tell us at 9pm EDT.
What the hell is this thing about toilet paper? So use Kleenex!!!!
I’m sure the price gouges who think that they can get away with it will gouge on all related consumer staples.
I was at the grocery store yesterday and there was a woman filling her cart with toilet paper. I just shook my head and wondered what could possibly make a person think they need that much toilet paper. The virus doesn’t give you the shits. You would think that folks would be stocking up on cough suppressants and fever reducing meds but oh well, to each their own, I guess.
People act like they will never get to the grocery store again. It is kind of crazy. Get yourself and family a 2 weeks supply of necessities in case you need to quarantine and leave some TP on the shelves for others.
We were in Florida for Dorian last year and it was near impossible to buy any water. People were just going overboard. The local Publix finally had to put a 2 case limit on it because people were actually fighting over it.
Indeed.I just went grocery shopping at Walmart and the grocery store on Tuesday and there were no panicking crowds, and while there were a few empty shelves where hand sanitizers once were, there were no others empty. Plenty of TP and other necessities, no one running around in face masks.
When I read of all these people going crazy in the stores and in the streets I really feel sorry for them. They are more likely to die of stress and/or heart attacks than the virus.
I was at WalMart to get something else and thought I should pick up some TP, just in case. There was some on the shelf and I got a large pack. When I got home I saw I had grabbed paper towels by mistake. After another trip I have plenty of the extra soft stuff
I hope everybody makes it through this with no problems
I have seen no change in school or work or number of shoppers in stores like Walmart in my hometown so far.
their only chance, is if Trump doesn't squeeze the Charmin.
How much are you selling that $hit for ?
Is it on the Black, or Brown market ?
Don't flush away the dream, under proper profit
margins called 'i can't believe it's not butter'
worth or the Mrs. lubing up some Log Cabin Republicans for being Happy about getting the shaft Richard Roundtree style kicking and screaming like a roundhouse on the ride to a roundhouse where forced to sit in a corner and calculate pie
crusted from
'Corrosion of Conformity' who
'Voted with a Bullet'
to bite down hard on the verse at the end of the video.
Powerful Truth Stated.
It is recommended also to keep a one month supply of medications on hand.
The point is to stock up in case you're quarantined. You could be quarantined for 2 weeks after exposure to see if symptoms appear; and if they do, it could be another couple of weeks before you're able to recover and get back out.
Not a bad idea to stock up for a month just in case.
Just came from the Target empty aisle where the TP used to be, lol.
Curiously the water aisle was equally empty
You go ahead and laugh, Mister. But you'll be the first one knocking on my door looking for some decent 2-ply because you didn't plan ahead.
Curiously the water aisle was equally empty.
Why do you think I bought all the toilet paper?
You and Cobalt Blue, lol.
Sisters from different mothers, lol.
She is the self proclaimed "Queen of Papergoodsatonia"
Yes! Very important if you take prescription meds. I get my prescription filled for 90 days at a time but I guess some insurers only allow for 30 days at a time?
That is all anyone needs to read.
Information about the threat isn't coming from the Democrats. It's coming from doctors.
Up to 150 million Americans are expected to contract the coronavirus, congressional doctor says
From that link...
1% will die.
The low end of Dr, Monahan's expectation (70 million infected) means 700,000 dead in the U.S. alone.
The low end of Prof. Lipsitch's expectation (40% of world population infected) means 30.8 million dead around the world.
And remember, those are the lowball estimates. The reality could be much higher.
Keep in mind that a large percentage of people who become infected will not feel very sick at all. They may not even realize they have the virus and can become vectors, unwittingly infecting others.
Still sound like an exaggerated threat to you?
It obviously does to Trump, who poo poo's the virus and says it's no big deal. I guess if he doesn't get it, nor any of his family, and just afflicts a large number of people in the US, then it is no big deal to him.
However, if he or one of his family does get it, then that belief is sure to change into the biggest tragedy ever to happen.
That’s for sure. As Trump said tonight, we need unity and calm.
and who has caused the disunity and panic again ...?
Trump is the biggest cause of disunity among the American people at all levels, but, now he says we need to unity and calm. He talks out of both sides of his mouth and tried to blame everyone else for his own mistakes and lies.
I do agree with what is needed at this point, but, I will believe it from Trump when I see it. As what he says and what he does have always been two different things. And his decisions can change from one minute to the next.
He can't be trusted to stand by anything that comes out of his mouth.
As if demented sleepy Joe is the one who is going to get s through this.
Source?
The msm and the democrats
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I have a daughter with an auto-immune disorder which places her at high risk for a severe case. However, she has been dealing with protecting herself from illness for years and may be better adept at it than those of us that do not take as many precautions, I still worry that she may become on of those statistics. 700,000 people is a lot. And if anyone says it is negligible then they should think would they still think that if one of those was one of their own.
Best of luck, Veronica. Several people in my life are also in the high risk category. It's a horrible feeling.
Thanks. It is a horrible feeling.