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Meet the Supporters Trump Has Lost

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  john-russell  •  4 years ago  •  36 comments

Meet the Supporters Trump Has Lost
“I will never vote for another Republican in my life because of Donald Trump,” Mr. Smith added. “What changed? Well, three years.”

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



A significant majority of people who voted for him in 2016 are planning to do so again. What is different about those who’ve had a change of heart?

For some, the disenchantment started almost as soon as Donald J. Trump took office. For others, his handling of the coronavirus and social unrest turned them away. For all of them, it’s highly unlikely they will vote for him again.

These voters, who backed Mr. Trump in 2016 but say there’s “not really any chance” they will this year, represent just 2 percent of registered voters in the six states most likely to decide the presidency, according to New York Times/Siena College polls. But they help explain why the president faces a significant deficit nationwide and in the battleground states.

“I think if he weren’t such an appalling human being, he would make a great president, because I think what this country needs is somebody who isn’t a politician,” said Judith Goines, 53, a finance executive at a home building company in Fayetteville, N.C. “But obviously with the coronavirus and the social unrest we’re dealing with, that’s where you need a politician, somebody with a little bit more couth.”

“I’m ashamed to say that I’ve voted for him,” said Ms. Goines, who described herself as a staunch Republican.

These 2016 Trump voters might not all be considered part of the president’s base — many were not enthusiastic about him four years ago. As 6 percent of battleground-state Trump voters, they are just a sliver of the overall electorate. Also, 2 percent of battleground-state voters who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 say they will vote for Mr. Trump.

But Trump defectors play an outsize role in the president’s challenge. He won by a narrow margin in 2016, and he has made limited efforts to broaden his appeal. Even a modest erosion in his support imperils his re-election chances. Another 6 percent of Trump voters in these states say they no longer support Mr. Trump, while allowing “some chance” that they’ll vote for him again.

A majority of the defectors disapprove of his performance on every major issue, except the economy, according to the Times/Siena polls. Somewhat surprisingly, they are demographically similar to the voters who continue to support him. They are only marginally likelier to be women or white college graduates.

In interviews, many said they initially backed Mr. Trump because he was a businessman, not a politician. In particular, he was not Mrs. Clinton. But they have soured on his handling of the presidency. Several mentioned his divisive style and his firing of officials who disagreed with him, and especially his response to the coronavirus and to the unrest in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd in police custody.

Not all of them are ready to back Joe Biden, but they no longer entertain the possibility of backing the president.

Over all, 78 percent of respondents in battleground states who said they wouldn’t vote for Mr. Trump again disapproved of his handling of the pandemic.

John Crilly, 55, a retired commercial diver in Reeders, Pa., said he voted for Mr. Trump “because the other option was Hillary Clinton.”

“What changed my mind? 120,000 deaths,” he said. “He refused to realize, ‘Oh my god, there’s a virus coming our way; shouldn’t we do something, guys?’ Covid was the turning point. It’s the thing that touches home with everybody.”

He plans to vote for a local write-in candidate instead of Mr. Biden, who he worries is too old.

Coronavirus also changed the mind of Ariel Oakley, 29, who works in human resources in Grand Rapids, Mich. “With coronavirus, even just watching the press conferences, having him come out and say it’s all fake,” she said. “I have family who have unfortunately passed away from it.”

It made her wonder how often he hadn’t told the truth before, she said. She plans to vote for Mr. Biden.

The president also lost voters because of his handling of the growing movement against police brutality and entrenched racism. More than 80 percent of those who won’t vote for him again say that Mr. Biden would do a better job on race relations or unifying America. Of the Trump voters who have not ruled out voting for him again, only around 10 percent said they trusted Mr. Biden to do a better job on race relations.

Kelvin Pittman II, 34, who is self-employed doing car detailing in Jacksonville, Fla., said he voted for Mr. Trump because “he was a great businessman.” As a Black man, he said he aligns with Democrats on many issues, but as a businessman, he favors certain Republican policies.

Then came the death of Mr. Floyd. Mr. Pittman felt the president didn’t take it seriously: “It was kind of the last straw. It was like, this dude is just in it for himself. I thought he was supposed to be for the people.”

Cathleen Graham, 53, a nurse who lives in a mostly white suburb of Grand Rapids, Mich., has had very different life experiences, but came to the same conclusion. She said she had been shocked to learn how much racism still existed.

“I understand the movement and why it’s going on a lot better than I did than when the gentleman was kneeling at the football game,” she said, referring to Colin Kaepernick. “Even speaking up to support it, I’ve lost friends, friends that were crude, and I was like, ‘How can you even think that of another race?’”

Mr. Trump fits in that category, she said. She plans to vote for Mr. Biden.

Some former Trump voters said it was his personality more than any specific policy that turned them off. They observed his behavior as a candidate, but expected him to act with more decorum in office.

Robert Kaplan, 57, a supervisor at a water utility in Racine, Wis., voted for the president because he wanted to abolish Obamacare, and he didn’t trust Mrs. Clinton. But he was disappointed from the start.

“He’s an embarrassment,” he said. “He’s like a little kid with a temper tantrum when he doesn’t get things to go his way. He’s very punitive — if you disagree, he fires you. He disrespects very good people in Washington trying to do some good. And I think it’s very disrespectful of the office to be tweeting all the time.”

More than 80 percent of the voters who won’t back Mr. Trump again agreed with the statement that he doesn’t behave the way a president ought to act. Their view is shared by 75 percent of registered voters across the battleground states.

“He said he was going to, quote unquote, drain the swamp, and all he’s done is splashed around and rolled around in it,” Mr. Kaplan said.

Mr. Biden wasn’t his first pick, but he believes he has a chance to “bring the people back together.” His choice of vice president is important, he said — he hopes it’s someone younger, who can close the divide between the two parties.

John Chavez, 45, a manager at a car dealership in Queen Creek, Ariz., voted for both George W. Bush and Barack Obama. His 2016 vote was not so much for Mr. Trump, he said, as against Mrs. Clinton — he was “spooked” by things he’d heard about her potential involvement in scandals.

“I thought, obviously he’s going to step it up and he’s going to have to change, he’s going to have to become more presidential,” he said. “But little did I know, he’s not. He got worse.”

There was one moment, he said, when “he lost me forever”: when Mr. Trump did not wear a mask during his recent rally in Tulsa, Okla. He said that the president should not have made masks into a political symbol, and that if the public should wear masks, so should he.

Mr. Chavez will vote for Mr. Biden, mostly as a vote against Mr. Trump.

Though many voters similarly described Mr. Biden as the least objectionable choice, some were more enthusiastic.

Craig Smith, 64, a veteran in Big Rapids, Mich., said he planned to vote for Mr. Biden because “he’s got integrity, he tells the truth, he’s got compassion and empathy.”

“Donald Trump represents the past,” he said, “and I believe that the Democrats and Joe Biden and the young people of the world are looking at the future.

“I will never vote for another Republican in my life because of Donald Trump,” Mr. Smith added. “What changed? Well, three years.”


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JohnRussell
Professor Principal
1  seeder  JohnRussell    4 years ago
I think if he weren’t such an appalling human being, he would make a great president

You can't actually separate the president from the human being. Donald Trump is on tv or the internet every day, usually all day every day. His massive psychological dysfunction dominates the news in America all the time. 

There is no reason on earth why the people of the US should tolerate this. 

The idea that only Donald Trump can get this or that done is absurd. Most if not all of what he has "gotten done" appeals to a minority of Americans, but even if we stipulate that he has had some good ideas he is far from the only conservative or republican who can carry these banners. Trump's unfitness for office "trumps" every other consideration, and the people in the seeded article seem to understand that. 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
Professor Participates
1.1  Greg Jones  replied to  JohnRussell @1    4 years ago

Sadly, there are not enough of them to matter. Trump will win again. Four months of bad news for the Democrats will make Joe a loser yet again.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
1.1.1  Ozzwald  replied to  Greg Jones @1.1    4 years ago
Sadly, there are not enough of them to matter. Trump will win again.

Have you seen any of the national polls??????

Donald Trump Says Joe Biden Is 'Going to Be Your President' Because 'Some People Don't Love Me, Maybe'

 
 
 
Ronin2
Professor Quiet
1.1.2  Ronin2  replied to  Ozzwald @1.1.1    4 years ago

"Hillary in a land slide" is what the same national polls said last time.

Polls can be made to say anything the pollsters want them to.

 
 
 
evilone
Professor Guide
1.1.3  evilone  replied to  Ronin2 @1.1.2    4 years ago
Polls can be made to say anything the pollsters want them to.

All the polling companies, including those favorable to conservatives show Trump behind nationally, in swing states and some traditional red states. To the point where down ticket Republicans are starting to see a drag in some of their numbers. Yesterday's MO poll showed Biden at +2. A 16 point swing from 2016 when Trump beat Clinton by over 14 points! That said there is still 4 months to go and we all know a lot can change in 4 months.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
1.1.4  Ozzwald  replied to  Ronin2 @1.1.2    4 years ago
"Hillary in a land slide" is what the same national polls said last time.

Polls were for the popular vote, and were basically correct about Hillary.  The double digit numbers that the current polls show as Biden's lead, are unprecedented.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
Professor Principal
1.1.5  Sean Treacy  replied to  Ozzwald @1.1.4    4 years ago

Hillary was up 12 points in October.

theres nothing unprecedented about Biden’s lead.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
1.1.7  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Ozzwald @1.1.4    4 years ago
Polls were for the popular vote, and were basically correct about Hillary.

Let's not try and confuse them with facts, they can just keep ignorantly relying on a right wing fantasy all the way through November when they'll get woken up out of their Trump wet dream after the tsunami of voters against dishonest Donald wash his sorry ass out of office.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
1.1.8  Ozzwald  replied to  Dismayed Patriot @1.1.7    4 years ago
Let's not try and confuse them with facts, they can just keep ignorantly relying on a right wing fantasy

Is that why they cannot leave Hillary alone, from 4 years ago? 

2eh47m.jpg

 
 
 
Ozzwald
Professor Quiet
1.1.10  Ozzwald  replied to    4 years ago

That being said, HRC would do her party good to disappear for the duration of the campaign.

Trump disappearing would probably help his campaign.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
1.2  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  JohnRussell @1    4 years ago

The only kudo I can give to Trump is that he made animal abuse a federal offense.

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
1.2.1  Trout Giggles  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @1.2    4 years ago

I thought the prison reform bill was a good idea.

But his tax break wasn't so good for us little people

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
1.2.2  Dismayed Patriot  replied to  Trout Giggles @1.2.1    4 years ago

Neither were his ideas but were some underlings trying to improve his image. Nixon created the EPA but it didn't make him any less of a corrupt piece of shit who prolonged the Vietnam war for political gain allowing soldiers to die all for his own re-election.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
2  TᵢG    4 years ago
“It was kind of the last straw. It was like, this dude is just in it for himself. I thought he was supposed to be for the people.”

Good grief, was this not obvious during his 2016 campaign?

“I will never vote for another Republican in my life because of Donald Trump,” Mr. Smith added. “What changed? Well, three years.”

This kind of reasoning sickens me.   No critical thinking whatsoever, just simplistic generalization.   Trump is an individual with personal issues;  he is not the R party any more than Hillary or Sanders was the D party.    A better response would be to declare he will never support Trump, or anyone with traits like Trump, for election.


Trump's political assets have always been primarily the economy, a content electorate and incumbency.  The economy is, by far, still his critical asset.   Given COVID-19, this asset has been compromised.   Even if the economy rebounds, it is unlikely that the jobs will all return by November.   Further, it is very unlikely that we will be rid of COVID-19 to the point of normalcy.   These factors weaken the contentment of the electorate.  

His assets are diminished yet his liabilities remain intact:  personality, demeanor, narcissism, etc.  

In short, Biden is quite viable now given the critical Trump assets have faded.   One thing that could change this, however, is a poor debate performance by Biden.

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
Professor Participates
2.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  TᵢG @2    4 years ago

Even a poor debate might not torpedo him.  Look how Hillary rocked the debates in 2016.  I wonder how Trump would like it if Biden followed him around on the stage and stood right behind him while he was speaking like he did to Hillary.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
2.1.1  TᵢG  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @2.1    4 years ago
Even a poor debate might not torpedo him. 

True.   But when I look at Biden's strengths (not being Trump, affability, being a D) vs. his weaknesses (foot-in-mouth, not as sharp as he used to be, age) the key mechanism for amplifying his weaknesses is the debate stage.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
2.2  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @2    4 years ago
In short, Biden is quite viable now given the critical Trump assets have faded.   One thing that could change this, however, is a poor debate performance by Biden.

As opposed to Trump's good debate performance?  LOL. Trump has never given a good debate performance in his life.  He lost all of the debates with Hillary Clinton. 

What people call "good" debating by Trump is a dishonest performance. He used the debates in the GOP primary campaign to give his opponents stupid nicknames and lie about their records. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
2.2.1  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @2.2    4 years ago
As opposed to Trump's good debate performance? 

John, do you actually reject the notion that Biden, when engaged in debate, could flounder and look mentally aged?   No matter how much one wants Trump out of office, it serves no good purpose to ignore the weaknesses of his opposition.

I did not state nor imply that Trump is a good debater.   My comment was about Biden's contemporary (and demonstrated) liability on the debate stage.

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
2.2.2  Trout Giggles  replied to  TᵢG @2.2.1    4 years ago

You're right, TiG. Twenty years, hell even 10 years ago, Biden would've wiped the stage with trmp. I still think there's some gitty up go in the ol' boy but we have to wait and see

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
2.2.3  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @2.2.1    4 years ago

In all honesty, that remains to be seen. In the Democratic debates, which were only a few months ago, he had both good and bad moments. 

In his bad moments, he still makes more sense than Trump does.

Some people are attracted to Trump's endless bs. I have always seen it for what it is. I will grant you that given the medias insistence that the election be "close" will probably result in much of the media declaring Trump the winner of the debates, because that would fit the narrative that they want to play out. 

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Quiet
2.2.4  Dean Moriarty  replied to  JohnRussell @2.2.3    4 years ago

Wow how time flies. It seems like just yesterday you posted that you just voted for the first female president. jrSmiley_7_smiley_image.png

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
2.2.6  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to    4 years ago

As much as the media seems to report the constant failures of the Trump presidency, we need to relaize that what they most want is a close election they can hype 24/7. They need to portray Trump as "rallying" ,"fighting back" , and "gaining support"  in order to hype interest in their news shows, and when the time comes, that is what they will do. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
2.2.7  TᵢG  replied to  Trout Giggles @2.2.2    4 years ago

The debates are what I am waiting for now.   I can see where the economic / contentment factor is going but we do not yet have information on Biden's ability (in 2020) to operate as the nominee against an incumbent.

 
 
 
TᵢG
Professor Principal
2.2.8  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @2.2.3    4 years ago

The election will, of course, be decided by independents.    Thus my analysis always is relative to how I see fellow independents thinking.   Trump seems to be net negative right now (economy,  COVID-19 blame) and people are generally not happy because of these factors.   If Biden presents himself as someone who can competently serve as a PotUS who can re-stabilize things then I think he will win.

 
 
 
Dismayed Patriot
Professor Quiet
3  Dismayed Patriot    4 years ago

I think the best thing about the upcoming Biden administration is we might go two, three weeks maybe even a month or more without a Presidential fumble and we may never have to see another unhinged tweet or stupidly false statements coming out of the Presidents mouth. And we will likely go an entire 4 years without our President praising authoritarians like Putin, Kim Jong Un or Erdogan. Will there be occasional Presidential gaffes? Probably, but they will be an absolute relief over what we've been subjected to for the least 3 years.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
4  Ender    4 years ago

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
Professor Principal
4.1  Trout Giggles  replied to  Ender @4    4 years ago

I saw this on face book yesterday. I salute him!

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
5  Ender    4 years ago

I have to laugh, Kellyanne Conway’s daughter has been telling people not to vote for donald.

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
6  Ender    4 years ago

 
 
 
Fireryone
Freshman Silent
7  Fireryone    4 years ago

The only way he wins is by cheating again.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
7.1  Texan1211  replied to  Fireryone @7    4 years ago

Perhaps you can outline the "cheating" you claim Trump did last election?

Please be specific what the Trump campaign or Trump himself did wrong?

 
 

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