The Hill's Campaign Report: New polls show Biden leading by landslide margins | TheHill

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  3 weeks ago  •  58 comments

By:   Jonathan Easley, Julia Manchester and Max Greenwood (TheHill)

The Hill's Campaign Report: New polls show Biden leading by landslide margins | TheHill
Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you?

It surely looks like Trumpism is already a yuge failure!


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



By Jonathan Easley, Julia Manchester and Max Greenwood Tweet Share More

Welcome to The Hill's Campaign Report, your daily rundown on all the latest news in the 2020 presidential, Senate and House races. Did someone forward this to you? Click here to subscribe.

We're Julia Manchester, Max Greenwood and Jonathan Easley. Here's what we're watching today on the campaign trail.

LEADING THE DAY:

New polling data released on Wednesday finds presumptive Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden campaign slams Trump's Rose Garden event as 'sad affair'New shutdowns add to Trump woesCNN cuts away from Trump's 'campaign-type' Rose Garden speechMORE widening his lead over President TrumpDonald John TrumpIvanka Trump pitches Goya Foods products on TwitterSessions defends recusal: 'I leave elected office with my integrity intact'Former White House physician Ronny Jackson wins Texas runoffMORE.

The surveys show Biden ahead by landslide margins and are certain to set off alarms among Republicans, who could lose both the White House and the Senate if the president's numbers don't improve.

A new national poll from Quinnipiac University found Biden ahead by 15 points, 52 percent to 37 percent. That's a 7 point jump over the same poll from last month.

The survey found Trump's approval job approval rating falling by 6 points to 36 percent, against 60 percent who disapprove.

"Yes, there's still 16 weeks until Election Day, but this is a very unpleasant real time look at what the future could be for President Trump. There is no upside, no silver lining, no encouraging trend hidden somewhere in this survey for the president," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

A Monmouth University survey found Biden leading Trump by 13 points in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania. Trump carried the state by less than 1 point in 2016 and it is a key piece to his reelection strategy.

Republican Rep. Mike KellyGeorge (Mike) Joseph KellyThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, MaineRepublicans say Biden energy plan will help GOP in rust belt statesGOP lawmaker: Don't believe polls showing Trump behind BidenMORE (Pa.) said this week that polls in Pennsylvania can't be trusted because they don't take into account Trump's support from those who turned out to vote for the first time ever in 2016.

Kelly argued that "likely voter" models used by many pollsters are not sampling those first-time voters.

But Trump actually does better in Monmouth's "likely voter" model than he does when Monmouth tested all registered voters in the state.

When Monmouth considered a high-turnout election of likely voters in Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 10 points. When Monmouth considered a low-turnout election of likely voters, Biden's lead narrows to 7 points.

"Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016," said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray.

A CNBC-Change Research survey found Trump's job approval rating hit a record low of 45 percent among likely voters in the six core battleground states of Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

And a new analysis from the pro-Biden super PAC Priorities USA found Biden ahead in all six battleground states. If the election were held today, Priorities USA projects that Biden would win 278 Electoral College votes, compared with 143 for Trump, with 56 leaning toward Biden and 61 leaning toward Trump.

-- Jonathan Easley

READ MORE:

Biden leads Trump by 15 points in latest Quinnipiac poll, by Max Greenwood

Biden leads Trump by 13 points in Pennsylvania: poll, by Jonathan

Trump approval at record low among battleground voters: poll, by Zack Budryk

FROM THE TRAIL:

The Trump campaign is doubling down on its message of "law and order" with an ad released Wednesday telling Americans they "won't be safe" if presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is elected president. Tal Axelrod reports.

Priorities USA, the largest Democratic super PAC and the main outside group supporting Biden's presidential bid, is investing $24 million in an effort to encourage Black and Latinx voters in key battleground states to vote by mail. The Hill's Jonathan Easley reports.

FROM CONGRESS AND THE STATES:

The Senate matchups in Texas, Alabama and Maine are set.

Former Air Force helicopter pilot M.J. Hegar defeated state Sen. Royce West in the Democratic runoff to challenge Sen. John CornynJohn CornynMJ Hegar wins Democratic battle to challenge John CornynThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, Maine5 key races to watch on TuesdayMORE (R-Texas) in November. In Maine, state House Speaker Sara Gideon beat out two progressive Democrats in the primary to face Sen. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsSara Gideon wins Democratic race to challenge Susan CollinsThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, MaineIllinois House Republican leader won't attend GOP convention in Florida: 'It's not going to be a safe environment'MORE (R-Maine). And in Alabama, Tommy Tuberville, the Trump-backed former Auburn University football coach, vanquished Jeff Sessions, who had been trying to win back his old Senate seat.

A few other highlights:

— Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician, appears likely to return to Washington after he won his House primary runoff in Texas's 13th District.

— Candace Valenzuela beat retired Air Force Col. Kim Olson in the Democratic primary runoff in Texas's 24th District.

— Former Rep. Pete SessionsPeter Anderson SessionsPete Sessions wins GOP runoff in comeback bidThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, Maine5 key races to watch on TuesdayMORE (R-Texas), who lost his reelection bid in Texas's 32nd District to Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) in 2018, won a GOP primary runoff in the state's 17th District on Tuesday as he tries to get back to Washington.

One race that remains unresolved is the Republican runoff in Texas's 23rd District, where Tony Gonzales, who's backed by Trump, and Raul Reyes, who's endorsed by Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzMJ Hegar wins Democratic battle to challenge John CornynThe Hill's Campaign Report: Key races take shape in Alabama, Texas, Maine5 key races to watch on TuesdayMORE (R-Texas), remain separated by only seven votes. There are still some mail-in ballots and provisional ballots that need to be counted, but the ultra-close margin has left the race undecided for the time being.

An outside group linked to several Democratic groups is running TV ads in Kansas's Republican Senate primary. Taken at face value, the ad appears to attack both former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach and Rep. Roger MarshallRoger W. MarshallThe Hill's Campaign Report: Runoff elections in Texas, Alabama set for TuesdayConservative group launches ad campaign for Rep. Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate raceBollier raises .7 million in second quarter in Kansas Senate raceMORE (R), the preferred candidate of Senate Republican leaders. But it may as well be a positive spot for Kobach, whom it casts as "too conservative" and uncompromising on issues like Trump's proposed border wall. The Kansas Senate primary is slated for Aug. 4, and some Republicans fear a win for Kobach could cost them in the general election. The Hill's Reid Wilson reports.

MONEY WATCH:

One month after she lost in the Democratic primary for Georgia's 7th District, Nabilah Islam is launching a new PAC with the hope of providing support to other progressive contenders.

The group, known as the Progressive List, launched on Wednesday and will help get money to candidates in the early stages of their primary campaigns. Islam says the group will also give candidates the proper tools and resources to fundraise and reach out to voters.

"This is something that didn't really exist when I was a candidate," Islam told The Hill. "It would have been really helpful had an organization really listed my candidacy earlier on rather than waiting until the last month or two."

"We're going to be certainly targeting transformational candidates, progressives [who] we believe that look like their districts, are working class, running on progressive policies, but being on the ground with them day one," she continued. "Making sure they have a check list--do you have a good campaign manager? Do you have progressive consultants that are good? Set the stage for them so that they have the tools to be successful."

Meanwhile, the former Republicans running the Lincoln Project say they raised $16.8 million in the second quarter of 2020 as the group ramps up its anti-Trump efforts ahead of the general election. Tal reports.


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JBB
1  seeder  JBB    3 weeks ago

Trump and the damn gop are due for an epic and well deserved asswhoopin on November 3rd!

 
 
 
Gsquared
1.1  Gsquared  replied to  JBB @1    3 weeks ago

Let's not get complacent or celebrate too soon.  It is very good news, of course.  The new NBC/WSJ poll today has Biden up by 11 points, 72% say the country is on the wrong track and 50% say there is "No chance" they will vote for Trump.

Turn out will be everything.  The GOP is going to try massive voter suppression.  We need to make certain that every one gets out and votes.  

 
 
 
JBB
1.1.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Gsquared @1.1    3 weeks ago

There is no complacency here. It is all about the battleground states. Democrats must go all out in Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan and Arizona. After those the other pickups will be gravy...

 
 
 
JBB
1.1.2  seeder  JBB  replied to  Gsquared @1.1    3 weeks ago
 
 
 
Gsquared
1.1.3  Gsquared  replied to  JBB @1.1.1    3 weeks ago

I'm not suggesting that you are. I'm talking about all of us. We need a Blue Tsunami!

It is definitely about the battleground states.  The Democrats also need to go all out in Wisconsin and Ohio, both states Trump took last time.  Frankly, Democrats need to go all out in all 50 states to the extent that resources are available.  Make the Republicans defend everywhere.  This is the fight of a lifetime...

 
 
 
Gsquared
1.1.4  Gsquared  replied to  JBB @1.1.2    3 weeks ago

You have to love that.  

 
 
 
JBB
1.1.5  seeder  JBB  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.4    3 weeks ago

I find hope in that statistic since women vote!

 
 
 
JBB
1.1.6  seeder  JBB  replied to  Gsquared @1.1.3    3 weeks ago

Agreed, but we can't go thin in battleground...

 
 
 
Gsquared
1.1.7  Gsquared  replied to  JBB @1.1.5    3 weeks ago

Apparently, women vote in greater numbers than men.  It is a very important statistic.

 
 
 
Gsquared
1.1.8  Gsquared  replied to  JBB @1.1.6    3 weeks ago

No, we can't.  That is why I said to the extent that resources are available.   As you correctly pointed out, the battleground states are the priority.

 
 
 
cjcold
1.2  cjcold  replied to  JBB @1    3 weeks ago

Biden has always been respected on both sides of the aisle.

Trump has lost all respect he ever had from the king makers.

Seems that pretty much everybody now acknowledges Trump's progressing insanity.

Is there really a choice?

Even staunch republicans are voting for Biden.

 
 
 
PJ
2  PJ    3 weeks ago

This poll gives me little hope if I'm being honest.  Biden's lead should be much larger if people have any respect for the rule of law, our Constitution, our principles and values.  Clearly there is a faction of voters who aren't bothered about all the corruption going on. 

 
 
 
JBB
2.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  PJ @2    3 weeks ago

It is hard to believe Trump still has any supporters.

 
 
 
PJ
2.1.1  PJ  replied to  JBB @2.1    3 weeks ago

My point exactly.  How totally moralless and broken can these people be.  It's just shocking to me that he continues to retain this core group of voters.   

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.1.2  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @2.1    3 weeks ago

Why do you find it hard to believe?

Didn't you also believe that Hillary was going to win?

 
 
 
JBB
2.1.3  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.2    3 weeks ago

No, considering what a FAILURE Trump is it is hard to believe he has any supporters at all...

Hillary won the popular vote by 3% but still lost the Electoral College. Today it looks like Trump is losing the popular vote by 10-15%...

 
 
 
Texan1211
2.1.4  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @2.1.3    3 weeks ago

So I was right--you thought Hillary would win.

 
 
 
JBB
2.1.5  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.4    3 weeks ago

No, Trump cannot win losing by +10%!

 
 
 
Tacos!
3  Tacos!    3 weeks ago

If we must have a puppet as president, I would prefer one of these:

image.jpg

popums1q0w18i.jpg

29f01039a93bd4c46f9bac20899be4d3.jpg

 
 
 
JBB
3.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Tacos! @3    3 weeks ago

You prefer Russian puppets to American Democrats?

 
 
 
devangelical
3.1.1  devangelical  replied to  JBB @3.1    3 weeks ago

trumpsters share more common ground with russians...

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
4  Paula Bartholomew    3 weeks ago

Ivanka Trump pitches Goya Foods products

As a gov employee, she is breaking the law by doing that.  Go ahead Ivanka, give prosecutors more ammo to put you away once daddy is sent packing.

'I leave elected office with my integrity intact'

What integrity?

 
 
 
devangelical
4.1  devangelical  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @4    3 weeks ago

got her tits blown up and her mouth made smaller. oh yeah, daddy's little girl.....

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
5  Paula Bartholomew    3 weeks ago

Ivanka Trump pitches Goya Foods products

As a gov employee, she is breaking the law by doing that.  Go ahead Ivanka, give prosecutors more ammo to put you away once daddy is sent packing.

'I leave elected office with my integrity intact'

What integrity?

 
 
 
JBB
5.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @5    3 weeks ago

Got E-Coli? Ivanka will if she eats cold canned beans! Not to mention being terribly gassy...

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
5.1.1  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  JBB @5.1    3 weeks ago

She will end up at Club Fed where the food is very good.  Actually, the prison I was in actually had pretty good food plus we had the canteen and quarterly packages where you can get great foodstuffs and cook on your own.

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.2  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @5.1    3 weeks ago
 
 
 
JBB
5.1.3  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @5.1.2    3 weeks ago

No way to tell if Ivanka is gassier than normal? 

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.4  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @5.1.3    3 weeks ago

Do you sit around all day thinking this stuff up?

You will not get e coli from eating canned beans.

That is ridiculously false.

Sheesh!

 
 
 
JBB
5.1.5  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @5.1.4    3 weeks ago

Got E-Coli? Goya Does...

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.6  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @5.1.5    3 weeks ago

I gave you a link to prove you wrong, and you still insist on telling fables?

Why?

 
 
 
JBB
5.1.7  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @5.1.6    3 weeks ago
 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.8  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @5.1.7    3 weeks ago

How's about I read and laugh my ass off?

First off, do you know what adobo is? It isn't beans.

Do you know what salmonella is?

It isn't e coli.

It might be smart to actually read your own sources before posting drivel like that.

Add in the fact that your link is from 2017, and it looks really like you are just flailing away.

Where did you pick up your information at?

I would love to know so I can avoid that site at all costs, since it has led you far astray!

 
 
 
JBB
5.1.9  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @5.1.8    3 weeks ago

Got Salmonella? Goya Products DO! 

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.10  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @5.1.9    3 weeks ago

Keep on guessing, perhaps one day you'll accidently stumble into the truth.

 
 
 
JBB
5.1.11  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @5.1.10    3 weeks ago

Goya's Got Salmonella. You will too if you eat it!

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.12  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @5.1.11    3 weeks ago

Hilarious.

And wrong, of course.

 
 
 
JBB
5.1.13  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @5.1.12    3 weeks ago

Well, at least I know the difference between a garbanzo bean and a chick pea...

Trump never had a garbanzo bean on his face!

 
 
 
Texan1211
5.1.14  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @5.1.13    3 weeks ago
Well, at least I know the difference between a garbanzo bean and a chick pea...

I just gotta doubt you on that one, dude.

 
 
 
JBB
6  seeder  JBB    3 weeks ago

Got Salmonella? Goya Products DO! 

 
 
 
Texan1211
6.1  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @6    3 weeks ago

Yawn.

661 cases some 3 years ago.

Got anything current?

And where did you get that you'll get e coli from eating cold canned beans?

I was serious about wanting to know which site you pulled that crap from so I can avoid quoting it and making a fool of myself by telling an outright lie!

 
 
 
JBB
6.1.2  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @6.1    3 weeks ago

Apparently Goya gets only one of five stars but a gazillion complaints about their low quality...

https://www.consumeraffairs.com/food/goya.html

Obviously you don't want to talk about Trump losing by double digits!

 
 
 
Texan1211
6.1.3  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @6.1.2    3 weeks ago

You started all this with the lie in your post #5.1.

I merely corrected you and then you posted some link that proved you didn't know WTF you were talking about, and you've been backpeddling like crazy since.

 
 
 
Texan1211
6.1.4  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @6.1.2    3 weeks ago

You really, really, REALLY need to read your own links before posting them.

Less than 70 complaints dating all the way back to 2012. Not really all that bad when the company does well over $100n million per year in sales.

And not anywhere near a gazillion--if that is even a number, but for the purpose of this conversation I will assume you meant a very large number, which clearly it isn't.

In addition, some of those "complaints" were about retailers unable to make purchases and one was about Goya not having coupons. More than one was a complaint about tiny rocks in dried beans. Anyone who has ever cooked dry beans knows you have to sort them in case there are those tiny rocks.

And did you know that your source charges companies to "accredit' them?

That is so they can tell those companies that they will strike bad comments, usually that's how those type of companies work.

This from Wikipedia:

In October 21, 2014, Truth in Advertising published "Who is ConsumerAffairs.com Really Advocating For?" In the article, Unbeatablesale.com complained to the Electronic Retailing Self-Regulation Program , a division of the Better Business Bureaus and National Advertising Review Council , that ConsumerAffairs "creates biased and negative portrayals of companies that don't pay for its service called ConsumerAffairs for Brands." The service collects reviews from customers and gives brands an opportunity to respond. The ERSP "determined that ConsumerAffairs did not adequately disclose its paid affiliation with company members on its website and recommended it do it in a more clear and conspicuous manner." After reviewing ERSP's recommendations, a banner disclosing paid affiliation or non-paying affiliation was added to the ConsumerAffairs website. Of the 115 paying companies, 80% had a 3.5 star or higher rating. [7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ConsumerAffairs

Now, can you please tell me who is feeding you these links?

Seriously, I want to make sure I avoid that site like the plague!

 
 
 
Paula Bartholomew
6.1.5  Paula Bartholomew  replied to  JBB @6.1.2    3 weeks ago

That is what Goya and Trump have in common....low quality.

 
 
 
Texan1211
6.1.6  Texan1211  replied to  Paula Bartholomew @6.1.5    3 weeks ago

What Goya product did you try?

 
 
 
JBB
6.1.7  seeder  JBB  replied to  Texan1211 @6.1.6    3 weeks ago

All you do is talk about beans! Got anything at all to say about how badly Trump is losing?

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
6.1.8  Mark in Wyoming  replied to  JBB @6.1.7    3 weeks ago
Got anything at all to say about how badly Trump is losing?

2016

 
 
 
JBB
6.1.9  seeder  JBB  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @6.1.8    3 weeks ago

Except that in the 2018 midterm elections the damn gop suffered its worst popular vote loss in history and anything over 8% is a landslide...

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
6.1.10  Mark in Wyoming  replied to  JBB @6.1.9    3 weeks ago

agreed , and even with that landslide , trump is still president , to manys consternation and disbelief.

things come in cycles , just like obamas shellacking during his mid terms  ...its called a wake up call for those that get to big for their britches , if they can recognize it that is.

 
 
 
JBB
6.1.11  seeder  JBB  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @6.1.10    3 weeks ago

Trump was not on the ballot in 2018 but if he had been he would have lost badly. And, his poll numbers have shrunken considerably further since then. Trump cannot win the Electoral College losing the popular vote anywhere near as badly as the damn gop did in 2018!

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
6.1.12  Mark in Wyoming  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @6.1.10    3 weeks ago

actually I think of 2018 as  a chess move , to protect the king from being put into check mate 

 
 
 
JBB
6.1.13  seeder  JBB  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @6.1.12    3 weeks ago

How so? The gop lost the House in 2018!

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
6.1.14  Mark in Wyoming  replied to  JBB @6.1.11    3 weeks ago

JBB, the only poll that really counts? isn't one held in the past or even today or tomorrow , the only poll that counts happens on election day.  but if it makes you feel better and gives you hope , have at it .

 
 
 
JBB
6.1.15  seeder  JBB  replied to  Mark in Wyoming @6.1.14    3 weeks ago

If believing that Trump is doing okay helps you sleep at night good on ya, but he is not.. 

 
 
 
Texan1211
6.1.16  Texan1211  replied to  JBB @6.1.7    3 weeks ago

If you didn't want to talk about beans, why did you bring them up?

That sounds a little crazy to me.

Sure, Trump is behind in the polls.

Not for the first time, need I remind you?

I don't doubt that you would think polls matter more than votes, after all, you think it is better to lose seats but have more overall votes for Congress.

We have a name for candidates who think as you do.

Losers.

 
 
 
Mark in Wyoming
6.1.17  Mark in Wyoming  replied to  JBB @6.1.15    3 weeks ago

viewing it as a chess game JBB, americans have usually always voted for and had split  congresses , insuring neither side had an advantage or could force things through, things would have to be bipartisan vs strictly partisan, In other words something that hasn't happened in a long time , compromise , getting not all you want but getting enough to satisfy the voters that something got done .  its a safety check if you will when neither party is truly trusted  , trumps safety check was loss of the house majority , much like Obama lost majorities in congress , his so called shellacking  during his mid terms .

never said I thought trump was doing ok , but if you want me to say he is doing better than the dems , I have to consider how many times the house dems though he was in a gotcha moment and they blew it and lost.

 i will give you this though , i have not had any confidence in any democratic candidate in the past  30 years, they have continually moved further and further left and distanced themselves away from me , they left me I didn't leave them  and those that call themselves democrats today are not those I would choose freely to associate with  socially or in business.

 
 
 
evilgenius
7  evilgenius    3 weeks ago

Keep this in perspective.

No other poll has given Biden that big of a national lead all year, so that’s one reason it grabbed so much attention. But as we’ve warned you in the past, don’t overreact to outlier polls like this one . Even high-quality pollsters like Quinnipiac (which uses the gold standard of polling methodology and has historically been very accurate ) produce outliers sometimes, and that’s OK. In fact, it’s better than OK — it’s a sign that they are not cooking the books , as polls are supposed t o disagree somewhat, statistically speaking, due to things like sampling error .

And

Take what other national polls this week found: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll gave Biden an 8-point lead. A Reuters/Ipsos poll had him up by 10. The Economist/YouGov found him up by 9. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll put him ahead by 11. Morning Consult had him winning by 8.

Also

Notably, the state polling averages have not moved much in the past several weeks either. Biden continues to lead the polling averages of states worth 368 electoral votes, while Trump leads in states with only 170 electoral votes.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-biden-has-a-big-lead-but-its-probably-not-15-points/

bolding mine...

 
 
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