What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  hallux  •  2 weeks ago  •  18 comments

By:   Nathaniel Rakich - 538

What The New Mexico 1st Special Election Can — And Can’t — Tell Us About 2022
It’s also worth noting that, in our other major tool for picking up on midterm trends, the generic congressional ballot, Democrats still lead in almost every poll.

This should be a news story tonight.


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T


On Tuesday, for the first time in Joe Biden’s presidency, one Democrat and one Republican will go head-to-head in a federal election: a special election in New Mexico’s 1st Congressional District. Given the district’s Democratic lean, the election will almost certainly add one member to the Democrats’ narrow House majority. But the final margin will still be important, as it could hint at where the national political environment stands and what Republican messaging could look like in the 2022 midterms.


Tags

jrDiscussion - desc
[]
 
Hallux
Freshman Principal
1  seeder  Hallux    2 weeks ago

Voting keeps Americans busy ... and hopefully out of trouble.

 
 
 
devangelical
PhD Principal
1.1  devangelical  replied to  Hallux @1    2 weeks ago

...unless you're a trumpster with recently deceased relatives in a vote by mail state.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2  Texan1211    2 weeks ago
But the final margin will still be important, as it could hint at where the national political environment stands and what Republican messaging could look like in the 2022 midterms.

Using a single special election as a harbinger of things to come is insane.

 
 
 
Hallux
Freshman Principal
2.1  seeder  Hallux  replied to  Texan1211 @2    2 weeks ago

There is a huge difference between hint and harbinger. A cool wind in September/October is hinting at Winter's coming, a cold wind in November is a harbinger of Winter's coming. Words have meaning Tex.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2.1.1  Texan1211  replied to  Hallux @2.1    2 weeks ago

Um, this election is current, not months in the future.

A reliably blue district electing a Democrat who far outspent their opponent is hardly a sign to anyone familiar with politics of anything other than the Democrat will win this contest.

But you hang your hopes on the Democrats keeping the House in the midterms based on this election!

LMAO!!!!!

 
 
 
Hallux
Freshman Principal
2.1.2  seeder  Hallux  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.1    2 weeks ago
But you hang your hopes on the Democrats keeping the House in the midterms based on this election!

Where did I say that? Your ass seems to be lost, check your front.

Sometimes Tex, a seed is just a seed and has zilch to do with the seeder's opinion.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2.1.3  Texan1211  replied to  Hallux @2.1.2    2 weeks ago

I clearly didn't say that you said that.

Come on, man, I know you can read English!!

Pretending a single special election this far away from the midterms in a reliably blue district gives anyone a hint of what will happen in the midterms is silly.

 
 
 
Hallux
Freshman Principal
2.1.4  seeder  Hallux  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.3    2 weeks ago

Once again Tex ... I merely seeded an article, I did not take a stance either way.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2.1.5  Texan1211  replied to  Hallux @2.1.4    2 weeks ago

Oh, so you have no opinion of the article you seeded.

Great!

That is much better than thinking the special election holds special meaning this far in advance of the midterms.

 
 
 
Hallux
Freshman Principal
2.1.6  seeder  Hallux  replied to  Texan1211 @2.1.5    2 weeks ago

Look up 'disinterested' ... and don't take it personally. @!@

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2.1.7  Texan1211  replied to  Hallux @2.1.6    2 weeks ago
Look up 'disinterested' .

No need. Just seems weird that anyone would bother to post an article they care nothing at all about. Just seems like a waste of time.

and don't take it personally.

Never!!!

That would mean that I care what some anonymous person on the internet thinks of me.

Which, of course, I don't.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
3  Texan1211    2 weeks ago

It’s still early in the 2022 election cycle, but the New Mexico special election is in a position to either reveal a trend or throw cold water on one. Only three federal special elections have taken place so far in 2021 (although they were all top-two primaries, not traditional general elections as in New Mexico), and Republicans outperformed the district’s partisan lean in two of them, while Democrats overperformed in one.

2021 special elections don’t point in a clear direction

How the final vote-share margins in federal special elections in the 2022 cycle compare with the seats’ FiveThirtyEight partisan leans

DATE SEAT PARTISAN LEAN VOTE MARGIN MARGIN SWING
March 20 Louisiana 2nd* D+51 D+66 D+15
March 20 Louisiana 5th* R+31 R+45 R+13
May 1 Texas 6th* R+11 R+25 R+14
June 1 New Mexico 1st D+18 ? ?

Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean.

*Top-two primaries: Vote margin is the total vote share of all Democratic candidates combined minus the total vote share of all Republican candidates combined.

SOURCE: STATE ELECTION OFFICES

Gee, I wonder what was learned from the other special elections?

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
4  Kavika     2 weeks ago

If the dems win which they should the margin of the victory will be interesting. It may give a hint at other races in 2022 in NM especially the 2nd congressional district. The last two elections have been razor thin with a dem and a republican each winning, the 3rd time they are matched will be the tiebreaker.

Looking forward to seeing the outcome.

 
 
 
Hallux
Freshman Principal
4.1  seeder  Hallux  replied to  Kavika @4    2 weeks ago
the margin of the victory will be interesting.

... seems to be the part Tex did not get.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
4.1.1  Texan1211  replied to  Hallux @4.1    2 weeks ago

I got it, please stop pretending otherwise.

 
 
 
Kavika
Professor Principal
5  Kavika     2 weeks ago

Last I saw the dem was up by 23% a good sign. The 2022 election in the 2nd district will bear watching.

 
 
 
devangelical
PhD Principal
5.1  devangelical  replied to  Kavika @5    2 weeks ago

she'll finish up with close to 2/3's of the vote, which further illustrates the haste in passing voter suppression legislation in fascist controlled states prior to the mid-terms. they can't win free and fair elections, and they know it.

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
5.1.1  Texan1211  replied to  devangelical @5.1    2 weeks ago
she'll finish up with close to 2/3's of the vote, which further illustrates the haste in passing voter suppression legislation in fascist controlled states prior to the mid-terms. they can't win free and fair elections, and they know it.

Gee, so now  you are claiming that the GOP can't win elections fairly.

So what claim are you making about the elections that got the GOP into power to pass anything?

You get that to pass a law, a party must be in power. You stated they can't win free and fair elections, so please detail the fraud you now claim after telling us there is no fraud in elections.

Give me SOMETHING to support your inane theories.

Otherwise I'll have to assume that once again it is just fantasy on your end.

 
 
Loading...
Loading...

Who is online

Sunshine
Trotsky's Spectre
evilgenius
Paula Bartholomew


55 visitors