America's economy is booming, but Republicans are miserable
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Unemployment is shrinking. The stock market is booming. Americans are returning to the skies and even to movie theaters. And yet Republicans are deeply worried about the state of the economy.
Even though the US economy is expected to grow this year at the fastest pace in decades, consumer sentiment among self-identified Republicans is worse today than during the height of the pandemic, according to the University of Michigan.
In fact, Republicans are more pessimistic than at any point since September 2010, when the economy was just beginning to dig out of the Great Recession.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment among self-identified Democrats is higher than at any point during the presidency of Donald Trump — even though unemployment was far lower then than it is today.
This polarization of consumer sentiment across party lines is not entirely new, but it got significantly worse during the Trump era and continues to this day.
"It didn't really matter who was elected, until Trump," said Richard Curtin, who leads the University of Michigan's closely-watched consumer sentiment surveys.
Consider what happened last fall, just before the presidential election. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index among Democrats stood at 72.4 in October 2020, compared with 98 for Republicans.
By the time Joe Biden was sworn in as president, sentiment among Democrats surged to 89.5, while that of Republicans plunged to 69.8. That gap widened in the months to come.
"The overall level of consumer confidence nationally didn't really change when Biden took office," Curtin said. "Democrats and Republicans just switched places."
The US economy is booming
Despite the pessimism among Republicans, there is plenty of evidence that the US economy is flourishing as the pandemic winds down and health restrictions fade away.
US stocks touched record highs on Tuesday. The housing market is on fire. Oxford Economics expects the US economy will grow at an average pace of 7.5% in 2021, the fastest growth rate since 1951.
Americans are also traveling again. The number of airline passengers hit a pandemic-era record on Sunday, according to US airport screening data from the Transportation Security Administration. On Tuesday, United Airlines announced the largest aircraft purchase in the company's history and the biggest order by any airline in about a decade.
Nearly 44 million Americans are expected to travel by car this Fourth of July weekend, according to AAA. Demand is so strong that gas stations, grappling with a shortage of tanker truck drivers, are struggling to maintain supply.
The Back-to-Normal Index, created by CNN Business and Moody's Analytics, is now at the highest level of the pandemic.
Overall consumer sentiment measured by the University of Michigan rose solidly earlier this year before plateauing in recent months.
'Corrosive' distrust in government
Of course, none of this is to say all is well with the US economy.
The United States is still down about 7.6 million jobs compared with February 2020. Many businesses are struggling to hire workers. And the pandemic made the country's already-glaring inequality problem even worse, hitting low-income families the hardest.
At the same time, the reopening of the economy has created supply chain bottlenecks and shortages, pushing up inflation to levels not seen in decades.
Investors and economists pay attention to consumer confidence because the US economy is driven in large part by consumer spending. If nervous Americans stop spending, the economy will tank. If they keep buying, it soars.
It's hard to say how much the polarization of consumer confidence impacts the broader economy, though it's clearly not a positive.
"This partisanship creates a measure of distrust in what public policy can be and how it can help the economy," Curtis said. "And this uncertainty is corrosive of economic plans by businesses and consumers alike."
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White grievance isnt impressed by a Democratic president's economy.
They’re terrified of it. That’s why they are stalling infrastructure as much as they can - it might create … jobs!! gasp!
boo hoo hoo, they did seem to get out of sync with the boom/bust economy. how do voters vote? ha ha ha
Biden has taken no effective actions to boost the economy, or help it to recover....it was bound to rebound after the pandemic caused recession slackened.
One effect of Biden's election is that prices are soaring, hitting the poor and minorities the hardest. Gas and groceries are particularly hard hit.
I would suspect that a lot of the buying occurring now is people's fears that prices will keep going up and they want to stock up now to stay ahead of Biden's next disastrous blunder.
That was always going to happen.
Until we get the qualified drivers back, they will continue to be hard hit.
I'm qualified, but I won't be getting behind the wheel until trucking companies join the 21st century when it comes to wages, not only that, but the truck stops are still crawling with mentally defective trumpsters.
And that is virtually nothing to do with Biden. That is a result almost entirely due to the fact that restrictions are being lifted, people are looking to get back to normal, and it will take a minute for supply to catch back up to demand.
Believe it or not manufacturers do t just produce shit for it to sit in a warehouse. That is a loss until it sells and so a few decades back pretty much everyone adopted Toyota’s supply model, which was basically produce just as much as you need at any given time and reduce excess as much as possible. That came to bite us in the ass now during the recovery now that demand has shots up faster than supply can match and no one is sitting on excess stockpiles.
Republicans are miserable? Gee, I haven't noticed, around here they're all jokin' an' dancin' ... savin' babies n' stuff. This place rocks with their joyety.
I know festive parties everywhere...
Don't worry, be happy!
But the Repubs have to get rid of Trump, if they want to save Trumpism.
I have a few suggestions on how to accomplish that ASAP.
The only time I was not happy was when I was not allowed to watch my triple bypass.
I won't believe it's true until Trump takes credit for it.
I am sure he has already commented to someone that it’s because Wall St knows he is going to be magically reinstated in August.
You mean pull an Obama?
My position hasn’t changed. Things were pretty damn good for a good portion of the Obama presidency, stayed that way under trump minus the pandemic, and seem to be on track to remain that way under Biden. For me personally I have seen very little disruption since 2012, things continued on a upper trajectory.
As I have said, by and large presidents have very little impact on economic performance. Now obviously they CAN have a big impact if they go out of their way to do so, but for the most part things him along regardless of what the executive branch does.
I'm going to enjoy being a spectator as rwnj's are stuck between a rock and a hard place now. watching them push back against any infrastructure legislation, while some of their big money contributors stand to benefit the most. congress needs to start making noise about adjusting the US tax structure and setting the IRS dogs on corporations, phony non-profits, and the wealthy. putting that ticking time bomb in the middle of rwnj hopefuls prior to 2022 will spell disaster for them.