US jobless claims plunge to the lowest level since 1969
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits plunged last week to a level not seen since 1969, which if sustained would mark the next milestone in the labor market’s uneven recovery.
Initial unemployment claims in regular state programs fell by 71,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 in the week ended Nov. 20, Labor Department data showed Wednesday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 260,000 applications.
However, the larger-than-expected drop may be explained by how the government adjusts the raw data for seasonal swings. Wrightson ICAP chief economist Lou Crandall pointed out in a recent note that seasonal factors were anticipating a smaller increase in unadjusted claims compared with the same time last year as the labor market was struggling to recover.
“This is purely a seasonal factor distortion. Much of it will reverse next week,” Crandall said after the release.
Before seasonal adjustments, last week’s initial jobless claims rose by about 18,000.
U.S. equity-index futures maintained losses, and Treasuries fell after the jobless data and a separate report on durable-goods orders that showed a decline from the previous month. The Bloomberg dollar index rose.
If claims are indeed sustained at around pre-pandemic levels, it would likely increase the chances that Federal Reserve officials accelerate their tapering of bond purchases and contemplate raising interest rates soon after that buying finishes in 2022. The data follow reports showing the fastest inflation in three decades and a pickup in job gains in October.
Claims stood at 216,000 at the end of February 2020 leading up to the onset of Covid-19 in the U.S., which pushed applications up to a peak of 6.1 million in early April 2020. They’ve since declined as the economy reopened more broadly and Americans returned to work. Also, federal pandemic unemployment benefits ended by Sept. 6 in all states.
Even so, millions of Americans are still choosing to sit on the sidelines, frustrating employers who are desperate to fill a near-record number of positions. Child care remains a serious issue for working parents, especially as Covid cases pick up again in many states and disrupt in-person learning.
The October jobs report showed payrolls increased 531,000 after large upward revisions to the prior two months. Economists are calling for another half a million to be added in November, which will be reported on Dec. 3.
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As with all world wide calamities, they are followed by the emergence of new normals that will need to be dealt with by macro-foresight and not by micro-maga hindsight.
Propaganda ....... the help wanted signs everywhere and labor shortages in virtually every industry tell a different story.
A lot of us see right through this BS because we're living the reality of this labor shortage caused largely by all the free money that's been handed out the last year or so
Some of 'us' look at this from the armchair of history and not from the petard of putrid partisanship. A lot of people had a lot of time to re-evaluate their future course.
But you agree that Biden had no hand or influence on this recovery?
Lol .... do you own a business that requires a lot of employess?
How many people do you employ?
How many business associations (Chambers of Commence etc) are you active in that network with other businesses that help get the feel for the status of the current economy?
Are you active in your community employment generation?
Yes on all accounts for me so as noted, i speak from the reality that is now. Not some ginned up snapshot of the economy that is worthless for anything but pushing an agenda. I mean fast food joints are still cutting back hours because they can't get people to work. You'd have to be blind to not see what's going on out there.
But if you are really looking for a biased approach to this issue, i suggest you look towards the disingenuous narrative this article is pushing.
It is far too early to tell, policies can take years to unfold.
And yet you have the time to be here 24-7. Such a busy boy.
Don’t be jealous now that you haven’t been as successful ......
This is about NEW jobless claims only. Let's wait for the participation rate and Unemployment rate reports.,
I will probably get shyte for seeding those also if there is anything positive in them.
Not from everyone. Not me and there certainly will be some. Take it to the bank.
“This is purely a seasonal factor distortion. Much of it will reverse next week,” Crandall said after the release. Before seasonal adjustments, last week’s initial jobless claims rose by about 18,000."
The economy has recovered on its own as the country has rebounded from the Covid shutdowns.
Good news. Now let's wait for the gop/gqp/their supporters/enablers to deny/deflect/project.
Already happening.
Just pointing out the truth.
When? Where?
The denial is strong in this one.
Very strong
In which one? All I did was seed an article with a minor positive note and who jumped all over it with denialism? Why that would be you and several other BDS fanatics.
This is one of the purest examples of capitalism working properly.
Fundamentally, those of us who employ people trade our money for their time and/or ability.
Those people as a group are deciding that their time and ability is worth more than they used to accept for it, and they are repricing it accordingly.
They don't need some corrupt union or a more corrupt socialist politician to come. They have always held this power. They're just now starting to realize it.
People need money to live. Most people have to work to make that money. Many people made more on unemployment recently than they've ever made. That's the biggest part of the problem imo not some macro tidal wave of change in how people view the labor cost market. The second biggest cause is COVID
The fast food industry is a great example. Here, when they couldn't find enough bodies they simply cut back hours they were open. Less jobs Many restaurants went to a more carryout heavy business plan, thus employing fewer people. Some said they never made more money but less jobs Etc, etc. The net effect of all of this is fewer jobs to go around and when people run out of free money, fewer jobs to be had in the future.
The Fed can't print their way out of this one. Higher wages will just drive costs and inflation higher than its 30 years highs right now.
This is going to get uglier before it get better if we stay on this path ....
"Most people" need to work is true - but, not if you live in San Francisco. Just go to the local mall and start looting - no cops - no security - just your typical "peaceful BLM" family and friends on their weekly looting binge.
Yeah, but not anymore.
I think it's all completely about Covid. I think a forced reset for American society over the last couple of years has also forced a reset among Americans as individuals to better clarify what they value.
Possibly the best example. And one I have attempted to use with my liberal friends for some years now.
You're dancing around the elephant in the room...which is... those were utterly shit jobs in an utterly shit industry that is utterly terrible for both workers and customers. There is nothing the burger flipper at McDonalds does that cannot be done better robotically, and we'd all be happier for it. If KFC is open fewer hours, outstanding. Let's all sit back and watch the direct correlation with reduced heart attacks.
Further, they're out of "free money". It's not like these people had 6 month cash reserves and 401(k)s to borrow against. We're talking about people who live hand to mouth, and STILL don't want to go back to fast food or waiting tables. They've had a collective epiphany.
Liberals have been shouting at the sky for years that fast food workers "deserve" $15/HR or some other stupid number. Nonsense. They don't need a raise, they need a better job. They're finally starting to realize that better jobs are available (they've been available all along). Good for them. Better lives await. Maybe some of these folks will eventually make enough money to pay taxes on it, so you and I won't be the last two taxpayers remaining.
Sure. But read Harry Dent. There was no way we were ever going to avoid that as the Millennial generation came of age and started to make major purchases.
That's going to happen anyway. But free societies are bumpy rides. The only way to keep things from periodically "getting uglier" is to keep them ugly all the time.
I know, it’s pretty sad.
Why anyone would to be in business in that place is beyond me.
Help wanted signs still everywhere around here. Good help is still hard to find in nearly every sector from what I’m seeing. I’m living it. How about you?
Disagree, it’s a least as much the free money given out. People who made more than they ever made, some significantly more, for basically zero effort, are looking for more money without the skill required to get it. It’s the hand out generation .... pay my student loan, pay me top dollar even though I haven’t developed the skills usually required to get. Again, I’m living it how about you.
lol ... the only elephant in the room here is your poor judgement. The fast food industry would be nothing if people didn’t demand its services. It’s a simple supply and demand thing. I guess this “correction” you are talking about is going to magically change all that demand.
It’s nice that you’ve decided which industries are “shit” and which meet your standards of approval. And your expectations for fast food automation are a little overboard. Automated ordering .... okay but the rest of it? Good luck. You’re reading too many magazine articles.
Good for them, better get ready to work at bettering themselves to get those better jobs. I not seeing that from this generation. I’m seeing high compensation expectations for little to no effort.
Good luck with that and where do you expect all these new jobs will come for when robots take over the fast food industry?
Harry Dent? You mean the guy who predicted the biggest market crash ever within three months, six months ago? Honestly I don’t disagree that his prediction will come true but his reasoning is clearly flawed. Otherwise it would have already happened as he predicted.
Sure. But the extra benefits that made staying at home more profitable ended months ago, and that money was spent when it came in, so this isn't about govt action.
You're talking in pre-Covid terms, and exclusively from an employer's point of view.
The objective perspective is that they're telling you they're no longer willing to sell you the same skills and effort (or lack thereof) at 2019 prices. Currently, the market seems to be agreeing with them.
If understanding the basics of market economics is "poor judgment", then I guess so.
A demand that exists largely because of price-point, which is only possible because people were willing to work shit jobs at low wages.
Really???? You don't say. Who saw that coming?
It's always a supply and demand thing, in which the dynamics of supply and demand.... being ever-fluid.....have changed massively......which is what I've been explaining....but now is somehow seen as "poor judgement".
If it changes prices, it will absolutely change demand. That's how supply and demand work.
Please do explain how fast food is good for anybody beyond the franchisers and franchisees.
I can already blend my own choice of 127 flavors of soda...without ever having to take it back to a counter and explain to an indifferent 16 year old how they got it wrong. Automation in that industry is simply a matter of time. It has only been delayed because of the availability of cheap labor.
The thing about supply and demand is...they don't actually have to do anything as long as demand remains higher than supply. Now...you and I both understand that a recession is coming eventually (they always do), and at that point those people will be utterly fucked.
Read his original works from 30 years ago when he studied demographic trends and actually made sense. Understanding those principles as he demonstrates them through the Baby Boom Generation makes most of the whole Millennial Generation entirely predictable.
The extra benefits offered by the government ARE the problem. No way people should have been making more on government assistance, some significantly more, than they made regularly. They did more to create this problem than COVID did IMO. A lot more.
Wrong, they aren’t telling me that. My people already make above average compensation. Much higher actually.
Thinking you understand something and actually understanding it can be two different things. Can you explain the market economics of paying laid off people more in unemployment benefits than they made by being employed? Can you think of another time this has happened in US history?
Okay, so market pressures whatever they may be, significantly reduce those “shit jobs” today. Where are those employees going to work tomorrow with the skill they have today?
Do you think the supply of better paying jobs exist out there? I don’t. Not for the skill level they have flipping burgers yesterday. Again, they are asking for something for nothing. The supply of jobs they qualify for will be gone if you’re correct. What then? Because the demand for jobs is going to skyrocket if you are right .....
Beside the point and that’s not really free market thinking now is it? I guess free market is what you say it is eh?
Thats nice, then why would you be going to a fast food joint for a soda you can get at home? That’s right, you wouldn’t but you clearly aren’t the demographic that goes there regularly.
Nothing eh? Wish I could have figured out how to do nothing to make ends meet while raising a family. That would have been sweet.
I read most of his stuff and don’t recall him predicting COVID-19 2020 in those original works.
Benefits that ended months ago are not why you can't hire people today.
They may make what used to be above average compensation. The paradigm has clearly, obviously, changed....and is continuing to do so. You gotta put your behind in the past.
No. And it was idiotic. But it's over now.
Any number of places. The post-Covid economy is full of new unskilled labor jobs. Many of these folks have figured out they can make way more money delivering food than cooking it, and that doesn't seem likely to change in the near future.
Food delivery, driven largely by the pandemic, doesn’t sound like a much better career decision. Meanwhile I’m still seeing fast food help wanted signs offering 17-21 bucks per hour starting, some with signing bonuses.
Turning down 40+k a year for an entry level job in a small county like mine, to deliver food for more money? Doubtful but assuming it’s true, where they gonna work when the pandemic is over and people stop paying a premium to have food delivered?
That said, it’s doubtful we‘ll agree. For whatever reason you clearly aren’t seeing what I’m seeing out here in my neck of the woods.
No, but surely we're not talking about people who make "career decisions", anyway. That requires planning and forethought. We're talking about people who take the path of least immediate resistance and make that decision on a moment by moment basis.
But that's the effect we're describing, isn't it? 2 years ago AOC was demanding $15/hr for fast food workers and it was insane. The paradigm has shifted so far so fast many businesses are struggling to follow it. Assessing anything in business today as it relates to pre-Covid is almost like assessing it with a pre-internet view. Whatever the rules were back then, they have been overtaken by events and the new way of thinking that those events have brought about.
I live in Dallas, and you can definitely make more than that here. You can make $15/hr with at the Amazon warehouse with benefits and college tuition paid.
Personally, I don't see food delivery going away. Think about how long we've all been ordering pizza and Chinese food simply because that was all we could have delivered. Now that we can get almost anything delivered, people will keep doing that. Kinda like they're going to keep using Zoom or Teams instead of traveling everywhere. I think the more variants we get, the more ingrained these new habits will become.
But your question about where they're going to work during the next recession is certainly valid. That said.....I would submit that they don't think that far ahead. They're going to react to whatever those conditions are at the time.
I don't think we really disagree by that much. Some of that may indeed be geography, as you say. For example, I think the additional unemployment supplements ended here a few months before they did in Michigan.
In any case, I think we're all at varying degrees of both realizing that there is no going "back to normal" and coming to grips with whatever our new lives are going to look like.
Yes, it is to the dismay of many who felt that capitalism was cheap labor. The reality of it is that the employee trades his/her time for x dollars/benefits if those dollars/benefits are not there they will move to an employer that better fits their needs.
A lot of insinuated BS in this one.
What that means means not as many people are applying for unemployment. It doesn't mean people are back to work.
Many people refusing to go back to work run the chance of being ineligible to make a claim (bringing the numbers down). A cursory look around the business world will tell anybody with a functioning brain that there are less people in the workforce.
We need to move on from blaming Covid for this as well. Despite the propaganda from that idiot Fauci, much of the country went "back to normal" months ago. The only part that hasn't are those leeches sucking off the taxpayers.
The economy is so distorted at present it's difficult to tell if this is good news or not. What's happening isn't anything like the Great Recession. The financial sector isn't the driving force for what's happening in the labor market this time. Finance doesn't have any tools to address what is happening in the labor market.
The Federal Reserve shouldn't need to be giving financial support to a full-employment economy. We may be headed for a credit hangover.
There is only one reasonable answer for this set of conditions my friend...
Think of this all those unemployed people who received that replacement income from the government actually banked it, put it away and saved it...
It's the only way we can have the spending remaining as stable as it has been with the number of people remaining out of the workforce....
as that pile of held funds decrease gradually we will see the employment picture correct itself, if businesses can last through the period of not having sufficient employees...
And then there is this:
Sometimes staying in the labor force isn't worth the hassle of mask mandates and having to put up with vaccination as a condition of employment. Older workers can risk COVID by continuing to work - or - pull the plug and wait for the pandemic to end.
Applications for U.S. state unemployment benefits plunged last week to a level not seen since 1969
Suck on that magats. Not even your orange god accomplished that despite all of his ego driven claims that he did better.
Nice piece of disinformation there Paula.. (in a context of T Rump hate as well)
NEW applications are down which means there aren't that many people applying anymore...
NOT that there are more working than before... has nothing to do with the actual unemployment rate since no one seems to be taking advantage of the demand for workers...
We've had over 12 million people leave the workforce thru retirement alone and who aren't coming back... I see workers wanted on the door of just about every business I walk into nowadays from fast food to the institutional bank I have my mortgage at...
They aren't finding them....
And nobody really knows why, no liberal does, no conservative does, and the economists are scratching their heads....
And certainly the clueless politicians know even less...
New apps are going down is completely predictable since the inflated government benefits are no longer available... Not something to crow about as it indicates that something is going on that no one has seen before.. Probably is going to turn out to be an even worse problem than we have now...
Lets see when the actual employment rate figures come out... probably have to sing a different tune...