Canada’s job market blows past estimates quadrupling gains
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Canada’s labor market blew past expectations in November as the end of income support programs helped fuel new hiring.
Employment rose 153,700 last month, Statistics Canada reported Friday in Ottawa. That’s more than quadruple the 37,500 gain economists were predicting, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
The numbers show just how close the nation’s economy is to full employment at a time when businesses are raising worries about labor shortages and policy makers are considering ways to cool the recovery down.
The unemployment rate fell to 6% — very near pre-pandemic levels — from 6.7% in October. Employment is now 186,000 jobs beyond where it was in February 2020. Hours worked rose 0.7%, fully recouping Covid losses for the first time.
The Canadian dollar rose, up 0.2% to C$1.279 per U.S. dollar at 10:25 a.m. in Toronto. Yields on two-year government bonds were up 7 basis points to 1.04%.
November’s gains reflect large numbers of people exiting unemployment ranks, a development that coincided with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government decision to terminate its key support program for individuals in October. Unemployment levels fell by 122,000 last month, versus 56,200 in October. Much of that decline were people who were out of a job for 52 weeks or more.
“We warned the risks were toward a much stronger report as pandemic support programs ended in late October — and that’s exactly what we got,” Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at Bank of Montreal, said by email.
The job-finding rate — the share of unemployed Canadians in October who appear to find jobs in November — jumped to 37%, the highest since March last year.
Friday’s report is consistent with other data that suggest the income-support programs that began in April 2020 may have held back employment gains. The share of people actively looking for employment rose to 30% in October, up from 25% in September, according to job posting site Indeed Canada. The increase was largely driven by unemployed workers who described their search as immediate.
Apparently, in an economy with more than 1 million job vacancies, employers are hiring as many workers as they can, and holding on to existing workers. The job separation rate — the share of employed Canadians who enter the unemployment ranks — fell to just under 2% in November for the first time in data back to 1976.
There are also signs of tightening labor market conditions in the wage numbers. The average hourly wage rate in November was up 2.7% from a year ago, an acceleration from 2% in October. For permanent employees, wages are up 3%.
Rate Implications
The data will only cement expectations that interest rates are poised to increase. Markets are pricing in five Bank of Canada interest rate hikes next year.
“Labor markets are tightening sharply, and that positions the Bank of Canada to hike earlier than we had expected,” Royce Mendes, an economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, said by email.
The gains were nearly evenly split between part-time and full time, with growth led by the private sector. The services sector accounted for a majority of new positions, led by health care, retail trade and professional services. Manufacturing was responsible for all the job gains in the goods-producing sector.
The survey results didn’t capture the impacts of the severe flooding that occurred in British Columbia, according to Statistics Canada.
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Not too shabby for a Nation run by radical progressives.
"...data that suggest the income-support programs that began in April 2020 may have held back employment gains."
So, they broke it before they fixed it?
I suggest you learn what suggests means.
Fake News, and you're all socialists..../s
Word has it that the moose aren't socialist but fascist progressives.
With all those dear deers in the headlights, who can blame them.
Maybe so, but the beavers are very industrial, building dams here and there. That makes me think of the government member from Kicking Horse Pass, who when asked about the problem with the river said: "We give concessions, but we don't give a dam."
You’re welcome little brother
Looks like it’s time to add to the Canadian stock market portion of the international part of my investment portfolio
Canada is your God's favorite nation.
No, it’s not. Their treatment of churches and pastors assured that they are not that
So you keep saying about one pastor whose 'church' was open public space in a Province run by God fearing conservatives.
Little brother? Canada is bigger than the USA.
Hell, Canada has provinces that make Texas look like roadkill.
Only in physical size which is to say, nothing of consequence in this discussion
Hell, the US has an economy that makes Canada’s look like a 5 &10 store.
You do agree that Canada is bigger in physical size, but deny that it may be better in anything else? Sure, the USA has 10 times the population and of course the size of the economy is dependent on that, and I'm sure you would never admit that there are some things wherein Canada is better.
I never said they weren't better at anything else. Other than a few border agents my experience with Canadians has been very good.
That doesn't change anything with the comments i made though. Those were just the facts. Not sure why they would bother anyone here.
No you didn't. I apologize. Maybe, being a Canadian, I was too sensitive.
Accepted, Mooseheads are on me .....
British Columbia comes to mind. I think it took us 4 days to get across it
The people are very nice
Canadian protesters...
I see the Biden Admin has doubled tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber.
No problem. It's better to devastate American forests than Canadian ones.
Because inflation and lumber prices aren't high enough yet ....... what a moron!