Overview of What's Happening on the Ground in Ukraine
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Michael Kofman is the Director of Russian Studies at CNA and an expert on the Russian millitary.
The Russian operation was focused on getting to Kyiv quickly, forcing a surrender, and pushing a small number of units forward quickly in a way that avoided large engagements with UKR forces. They’ve been skirting major cities, going for key road junctions/smaller towns, etc. Why did Moscow choose this course of action? A few theories: they didn’t take Ukraine & its military seriously. They wanted to avoid attrition & devastation because of consequences for pol goals in Ukraine, costs of casualties, and they want to hide the costs from the public.
It is also possible that Russian military planners genuinely wanted to avoid inflicting high levels of destruction given how unpopular this war was going to be at home. Most Russian soldiers are young & have little interest in fighting Ukrainians as an opponent. What I’ve seen so far suggests that Russian troops were unaware they would be ordered to invade, and appear reluctant to prosecute this war. They don't see Ukrainians as adversaries and the military didn’t prepare them for this campaign. Outside of Chechens, morale seems low.
This is an unworkable concept of operations. It seems they tried to win quickly and cheaply via 'thunder runs,' hoping to avoid the worst of sanctions & Western outrage. They’ve ended up in the worst of all worlds, trickling more resources into a failed strategy.
However, this is barely a few days into the war. Ukraine has done remarkably well, but no analysts (except maybe in Moscow) expected Russia to defeat the largest country in Europe within 4 days, especially given UKR military capability. On the shambolic effort - Russian units are not really fighting as BTGs. They’re driving down roads in small detachments, pushing recon & VDV units forward. Tanks often by themselves and vice versa. Fires & enablers not used decisively, and often not used at all. Outside of the fighting NW of Kyiv we have a lot of smaller detachments, tanks, IFVs, often recon or VDV units pressing down roads & into cities. Small formations regularly outrunning logistics, without support, or letting support & artillery get ambushed behind them.
Beyond large numbers of units strewn out in small detachments & checkpoints, we have the inverse situation as well. Long trains of Russian vehicles stuck in their own traffic jams, entering across the border. Air defenses not covering them, but stuck on the road with them. As companies & platoons run ahead to seize points, logistics can’t keep up, and they’re not being effectively covered by support. Most of the fights I've seen are small skirmishes, especially on the outskirts of major cities. These may be intense, but not major battles. The Russian failure is driven by the fact that they’re attempting to conduct a full-scale invasion without the mil operation that it would require, thinking they can avoid most of the fighting. This has led to not only unworkable force employment, but lack of employment.
The truth is that large parts of the Russian military have yet to enter this war, with many of the capabilities still unused. Not to take away from UKR great mil performance, and resilience, but I see a lot of early judgments & conclusions that need moderation. In the first 4 days, Russian tactical aviation, except for some Su-25s, largely sat on the sidelines. So have most combat helicopters. They have hundreds of both deployed in the area. Russia's air force is missing in action, and largely unused. The Russian military sought to use cruise/ballistic missiles to destroy/suppress UKR air defense and target air bases. However, they're not flying CAPs, or offensive counter air, and only today have I spotted the first Su-34 bomber conducting strikes.
Except for heavy shelling around Kharkiv, use of fires have been limited compared to how the Russian military typically operates. Sadly, I think this will change. Russian mil is an artillery army first, and it has used a fraction of its available fires in this war thus far. The bulk of the Russian military has yet to enter the fight. Outside Kharkiv, most of the 1st Guards Tank Army, and 20th Army, are just sitting there. They pushed a few BTGs a considerable distance past Sumy, but I think a lot of Russia's forces are still on the sidelines.
Another point, Russian losses are significant, and they have had a number of troops captured, but they have been advancing along some axes. In general, Ukrainians are posting evidence of their combat successes, but the opposite is less true, distorting the overall picture. Hence my next thought. In a desperate effort to keep the war hidden from the Russian public, framing this as a Donbas operation, Moscow has completely ceded the information environment to Ukraine, which has galvanized morale and support behind Kyiv. Another miscalculation.
I won't comment on the host of official claims made in this war so far, except that I think Kyiv is doing a great job shaping perceptions & the information environment. That said, folks should approach official claims critically in a time of war. Looking at the military effort, I think Russian forces are getting some basics really wrong, but we're also learning things that are probably not true about the Russian military as well. They're not really fighting the way they train and organize for a major conventional war.
The assumptions have Grozny 1994 vibes, while some of the operations remind me of classic mil org driven blunders. Sending airborne air assault brigades or naval infantry in early on to 'do their thing,' even though it is unnecessary, risky, or impractical. What's next? Russia's political leadership is still not conceding their plan's failure, trying to take Kyiv quickly. But we're seeing them open up greater use of fires, strikes, and air power. Sadly, I expect the worst is yet ahead, and this war could get a lot more ugly.
Also, looking at day 5, seeing major adjustments. Russian military is suspending unsupported thunder runs, resupplying, and reorganizing. Ukraine's military has performed rly well, but I think we're going to see a different Russian approach moving forward.
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This synthesizes a lot of the disparate summaries I've seen of the first few days fighting. There's a lot of debate whether Russia has a bad army following a bad plan, or if a bad plan has made a competent army look incomperent. One thing everyone agrees on in is Ukraine has exceeded expectation. The concern is what happens if Russian changes tactics and begins engages with airpower and artillery. The damage to the country and civilians will really ramp up if that occurs.
Not to mention Putin bringing nuclear deterrents into this.
As the Russian army is an artillery first (and in a really massive way) army, if they start to use their artillery as per normal battle plans the loss of civilian life is going to be catastrophic. What happens then when the Russian public finds out... We have to remember that the Ukraine and Russia were joined at the hip for many years and there are family separated by that border. Will Putin survive the fallout? Anyway you look at it, I think the author is correct and it's going to get a lot uglier soon.
From what I read the Russians have a supply/logistics problem. This is exactly what happened to them in the brief war with Georiga.
I saw earlier the video of a Ukrainian drone destroying a mounted multi rocket launcher. If the Ukrainians have a large number of drones this could create extensive damage to Russian armor.
I saw a video just a few minutes ago were Ukrainian civilians (unarmed) parked their cars and stood in the roadway with a Russian column heading at them, the column stopped and eventually turned around. That is damn amazing.
The Russians are at a disadvantage with heavy equipment (tanks) since the ground isn't frozen and they are going to be stuck on the roads which will make them easier targets.
IMO, the next few days are going to be ugly since I believe that Russia will throw everything at the Ukrainians and will attack civilian areas.
I think that Russia has tried to minimize civilian caualties because they wanted to get the Ukrainian people behind them. Now that is clearly out of the question I think we will see more civilian deaths.
What has been happening is not describing the typical Russian invasion operations... The Russians have always used massive artillery attacks followed by overrunning heavy Armored columns supported by helicopters backed by mechanized infantry, supported by strike aircraft...
But when done, think German cities at the end of WWII...
Their quick strike gambit has failed, opposition is cohering into a serious opposition force... They may decide to go massive but the civilian casualties will skyrocket...
They are almost forced into such a scenario now, before outside support becomes more focused... The alternatives are still too bitter for them to accept...
I agree it's going to get a LOT worse before it gets better...
IMO, Putin will do what he's done in Syria, Chechnya and that is attack the civilians with artillery, rockets and hope that the Ukraine government will say ''enough'' to stop the suffering of the civilian population.
The death of thousands of civilians is of no concern to Putin.
I heard a report that the Russians haven't done much in the west and arms are flowing across the border into Ukraine.
Right now I'm watching Chef Jose Andres being interviewed on the Ukraine/Polish border where he has set up kitchens and today they prepared 15,000 meals.
The man is a hero.
I agree, I think that's the next phase and its really going to get ugly.
I think you might find this article interesting.
I think you are right, Kavika. We can probably anticipate a massive assault on the Ukrainian civilian population within the next 36-48 hours.
Putin will go down in history as a savage and brutal war criminal.
That’s a good article
Yes, it says exactly what we have been saying... Even if they do go massive, the technical & Tactical training the Ukrainian Army has been receiving during their MAP has been showing itself, the one thing that paralyzed them in Afghanistan was the supply problem, they just couldn't protect the flow of supplies, they lost more to ambush as they did in combat sometimes a lot more... And that was the full strength Red Army, not this ghost of the Red Army...
They may go massive and cause a lot of death and destruction, but it will galvanize the Ukrainians into a combat force they haven't faced in a long time... One must remember, many of those 50 & 60 year old's volunteering into the Ukrainian Army are Red Army veterans, tough as nails... They know how to fight a war... they will teach the young one how to destroy an invading army... And they are getting the cream of western weaponry as well....
The Russian Bear vs the Ukranian Wolverine.... Even a bear knows to respect the Wolverine...
As we speak the Ukrainian pilots are picking up 70 fighter jets in Poland.
Now there is some dispute if this is happening or not. I hope that it is.
Evening...
To Russia with love...
I've seen it reported both ways. The last thing I saw was that it wasn't happening because Putin had signaled Poland/NATO that any of these donated jets would be considered as still belonging to the original country and thus an act of war should they be employed against Russia..