Biden Surpasses Trump in Latest National Surveys as 2024 Presidential Race Heats Up
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Biden Surpasses Trump in Latest National Surveys as 2024 Presidential Race Heats Up (msn.com)
P resident Joe Biden is currently ahead of former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup, as indicated by eight recent polls. These polls show Biden holding a narrow lead nationally, ranging from one to three points. However, it remains uncertain whether this lead would secure him a victory in the Electoral College.
According to a Mainstream Research/Florida Atlantic University survey of American adults, 47 percent of likely voters would choose Biden 45 percent for Trump, with a small remainder of participants either undecided or favoring another candidate. Ipsos and Reuters found a closer race, with Biden edging out Trump 39 percent to 38 percent among registered voters. In an online survey by Civiqs, Biden narrowly leads Trump 45 percent to 44 percent, and Emerson College shows a more decisive lean toward Biden after undecided voters are accounted for, putting him at 51 percent against Trump’s 49 percent.
These numbers are not to be overlooked, especially considering the high stakes of the Electoral College and its past influence on election outcomes. As noted, Trump led in several battleground states like Michigan, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, which could again play pivotal roles in the overall results despite the national polling trends. This electoral dynamic raises memories of the 2016 election, where Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but lost the presidency to Trump through the Electoral College system.
US consumer sentiment rose sharply from 61.3 points in November to 79 in January, marking its highest level since July 2021. However, in March, it dipped slightly to 76.5.
The significant boost in consumer sentiment was likely driven by a decrease in inflation. Nevertheless, recent economic indicators point to a resurgence in inflation.
Despite the notable increase in consumer sentiment, President Biden’s ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate have seen little change. This stagnant trend is unfavorable for Biden, suggesting underlying issues beyond economic sentiment, with his age being a probable factor.
In a unanimous decision on March 4, the Supreme Court overturned a Colorado court ruling, ensuring Trump’s presence on the ballot in all states come November.
The betting markets are also reflecting this competitive race, with U.K.-based bookmaker Betfair revealing odds that display a tightening race, “Joe Biden has been the bigger mover in the market recently and he’s closing the gap on Trump,” stated Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom. Nonetheless, Trump’s early lead in late January national polls demonstrates the fluidity and unpredictability of the political climate.
While the national polls favor Biden, it’s imperative to remember that the popular vote doesn’t directly decide the presidency. With Trump having a slight lead over Biden in a recent CBS News/YouGov survey, the comparison of presidencies becomes a critical factor for voters. Economic retrospection plays a key role, with voters recalling Trump’s economy more favorably than the current state under Biden’s administration. Issues like immigration, where Trump holds a significant advantage in reducing migrant crossings, and perceptions of cognitive and physical health for the presidency also add layers to voter considerations.
Moreover, voter motivation and sentiment may influence the turnout, with Democrats showing less likelihood to vote and expressing more negative feelings towards another Biden-Trump campaign compared to Republicans, who express more hopefulness and personal support for Trump.
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At least after this maybe we won't have to hear so much about trump leading in the polls
And yet, poll after poll shows it differently
Congrats on finding one that manages to gin up a slim lead for shotgun Joe.
(SNARK ALERT). Will you be holding your breath ? (Not recommended).
As Election Day nears Democrats will unite, while the gop devolves...
Tell that to the Muslims that are out campaigning against Brandon. He isn't doing that well with the Jewish community right now either.
Still a long time till the federal elections.
If Powell doesn't lower interest rates due to rising inflation that will be a huge blow to Brandon's claims on the economy. If he does and inflation balloons Brandon is toast as well.
No one believes Brandon and the Democrats on the border and illegal immigration anymore. I am sure there will be several more national headline incidents to damage their standings even further.
Lawfare doesn't seem to be working against Trump; and independents that want neither Brandon or Trump will be turned off by the DNC trying to block all third party candidates from getting on state ballots.