Epic redistricting battles loom in states poised to gain, lose House seats
By: Ally Mutnick
Other reporting indicates that New York is close to losing two congressional districts. California will experience an unprecedented loss of one district. The rust belt appears to be the big losers while the south and west gains political power in Congress. The 2022 election could be quite different than what we've seen is many decades.
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
“The first two years of any decade when districts are drawn produce the whitest knuckles in Congress,” said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who led House Democrats’ campaign arm in the 2012 cycle. “People are trying to hold onto their seats at all costs.”
According to projections from Election Data Services, a political consulting firm that specializes in redistricting, 17 states are slated to see changes to the sizes of their delegations, including 10 that are forecast to lose a seat beginning in 2022.
The biggest winners appear to be Texas and Florida, which are on track to gain three seats and two seats, respectively, according to the projections. Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, and North Carolina are estimated to add one seat, as is Montana, which currently has just one at-large seat.
Meanwhile, 10 states are on track to lose one seat: Rhode Island, West Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Alabama, Illinois and California, which would drop a House seat for the first time in its 169-year history.
The looming reapportionment brings into sharper focus the high stakes surrounding the partisan battle for control of state legislatures and the fight to ensure an accurate Census count.
Some states, such as Rhode Island and California, are actively working to avoid an undercount. Other state governments, such as Texas, have not made similar investments.
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Democrats may need to replace Jerry Nadler with Gerry Mander.
I think that pretty much sums up what's wrong with Congress in a nutshell. They care more about keeping their positions of power than pretty much anything else. Has anyone heard about members being that tense about any other issue?
Keeping their positions of power is all they care about
So true of the repubulicunts
In expressing their opposition to and sheer angry rabid dog hatred of President Trump.
It's a bizarre situation where people are spending more money to obtain a temporary gig than they can recoup in salary. And the people using that upside down strategy appear to become wealthier rather than poorer in the process.
It seems that modern politicians have adopted Lewis Carroll's 'Alice in Wonderland' as an ideological playbook.
I think that this shift will present a unique change for the states. First of all, the states making the gain, are getting an influx of liberal voters. This is especially true of Texas and N. Carolina. For the other states that are losing, it will mean a slight loss in power. I do think that the census will be very important in the ultimate endgame. And yes, there is always gerrymandering to consider. A lot of moving pieces.
I wonder, though, about the power of states. It doesn’t seem to me like that will mean the same thing that it used to. Internally, most states are becoming more diverse ethnically, economically, and politically. Going forward, will the people of a given state be united on important issues the way they might have been in past generations?
Look at Texas, for example. Yes, it will gain seats because of population, but a lot of that population is browner than it used to be and more liberal than it used to be.
I think that the states with the most to offer in quality of life and economic expansion will get the most inflow, and as you said, that will also mean the most diverse inflow. So a state like Texas or N. Carolina will see people coming in from all over the US and thus be younger, browner and more liberal. I think that this is a trend pretty much nationwide, diversity wise. I also think that this is the reason at this point, we see so much battle over who are as Americans, value wise. As the last of the greatest generation departs and the baby boomers become the seniors, the last of a certain mindset will be gone, and I think that freaks out a lot of people. A lot of what I read here is extremism from both ends. Most people want a good life, and not so much manufactured strife and hence why the shift in the first place.
Really? What "extremism" are you seeing from the Democrats on this forum?
I knew you could be funny. Happy New Year JR!
The question is for Perrie.
Perrie is smart enough not to answer. It's a no win situation.
[[Deleted]]
But the laughs are for everyone!
You have given me the giggles more than once.
I'm secretly funny
Sorry, but your secret is out my friend.
I'm not so sure that the southern states are becoming more liberal. Southern politics is very different than politics in the northeast or California. Plus the immigrants coming to the United States are more conservative than people wish to admit.
Democrats' advantage in party affiliation has eroded since the 2008 financial meltdown. And, to me, the current internal migration patterns appear to be a continuing aftershock of the Great Recession. The United States has been in transition over the last decade and, I think, its too early to make hard & fast claims concerning party politics. Both parties seem to be considerably different (and considerably weaker) than they were at the turn of the century.
Party Affiliation - Gallup
I am not saying all southern states. I am pointing to two, in particular, Texas and N. Carolina. For example Texas:
Texas is growing more than any other state, says Texas State Demographer Lloyd Potter, and half of the growth is from people moving to Texas from elsewhere, mainly California , New York , Illinois and Florida . And while Texas "has sort of a wild west persona," it in fact is growing much more urban, Potter says. A report by the Texas Demographic Center projects that Texas' population is increasingly concentrated in a handful of metro areas, and that the metropolitan population will double in the 40 years after 2010. Houston, Texas's largest city, is one of the most ethnically and racially diverse cities in the nation and like the next three biggest cities in the state – San Antonio, Dallas and Austin – it trends Democratic.
As for immigrants they might be phiosphically more conservative but the party they join is the Democrats. From the Pew:
I think this is understandable, given the current divide on immigration in general. My son in law to be is from Italy, but he feels that the Republicans have not been very welcoming, especially after having the rules changes shortly after he applied for his H1B, which pushed him out of the pool for almost 2 years, and he has a great job.
The Pew says differently:
If anything the uptick is in independents, followed by the Dems.
And Asians make up the largest of the influx.
I totally agree, and if these charts show anything it is an uptick in indies, which are never even considered as part of the equation. They are going to be the great unknown on election night.
btw.. you run a nice group here. I enjoy the exchanges without the usual snark, even if there is a disagreement.