Trump’s Impeachment Is Virtually Over. What Did It Change?
By: Gerald F. Seib - The Wall Street Journal
The seeded article is an analysis (opinion) written by Gerald Seib and published in the Wall Street Journal. Since the seed article is behind a paywall, the entire text of the article has been provided.
Mr. Seib presents a status quo analysis based upon the last few decades of American politics. In my view, that analysis overlooks some very important points that can be gleaned from the impeachment of President Donald Trump.
Yes, the Republican Party may be Trump's party now but it is important to note that Donald Trump was elected due to grass roots support. The Republican Party establishment did not support Trump's election and, in several highly visible ways, resisted Trump's election. Many noted Republicans that represented the party establishment have retired from politics since Trump's election. Trump has mobilized the grass roots to change the Republican Party and, IMO, that's the proper way to change the party. And that grass roots effort to change the Republican Party creates the appearance of greater polarization. The Republican grass roots are exercising more political power to shape the future of the Republican Party. That power shift within the Republican Party will also affect the Democratic Party. So, Donald Trump reshaping the political power base of both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party. Do not overlook that Democrat's impeachment of Trump was motivated by grass roots demands. Donald Trump is also reshaping the political power base of the Democratic Party.
I don't accept that the outcome of Trump's impeachment has strengthened the executive branch. The executive bureaucracy has become increasingly independent from political Washington over the last few decades. As President, Donald Trump has not been a compliant rubber stamp for technocrats within the bureaucracy. And the technocrats have become overt participants in politics as a means to force Trump into compliance. The entrenched executive bureaucracy has been using politics as a weapon against Donald Trump. The bureaucracy has lost. If anything, the executive bureaucracy has been weakened because it has become less politically independent.
The upcoming election (and future elections) will be more about the grass roots than about the bureaucracy. Donald Trump has been shifting political power back to the electorate. That power shift back to the grass roots means that being a Republican or Democrat matters more now than it has in recent elections. The power shift back to the grass roots weakens the political establishment of the parties but strengthens the parties. The political future of the country is being decided by the grass roots of both political parties which has created the appearance of more political polarization; between the parties and, importantly, within the parties. The country seems more divided because the grass roots have taken political power and are fighting the political fights. That may make politics messier but that's not a bad thing.
No experience as searing as a presidential impeachment trial—dramatic, emotional and seen only twice before in American history—can end without leaving lasting marks.
That will be the case in the aftermath of President Trump’s Senate trial, which now is virtually certain to end with a decisive and largely partisan acquittal on Wednesday. The reverberations will roll out for years to come, affecting the state of presidential power, the national political climate and the byplay between the two parties in Washington.
1. It is Trump’s party now
Perhaps most important, the impeachment drama has further shifted ground within the Republican party. Contrary to some expectations, impeachment drove Republican leaders even further into the embrace of a president they once viewed skeptically. By uniting so decisively behind Mr. Trump, Republicans find their fortunes locked with his, for better or as Democrats claim for the worse, in this year’s election season.
For his part, Mr. Trump found himself dependent on a Republican establishment he once scorned, and ultimately became proud of its solid backing. If there was doubt before that the Republican party has become Mr. Trump’s party, it has largely evaporated during the impeachment fight.
2. The country is even more polarized
The fight has driven the polarization already rampant in America’s political system even deeper into the body politic. Unlike past impeachment debates over Presidents Nixon and Clinton, this one uncovered little to no common ground between the two parties.
Here is just one sign of the effect of that heightened polarization and its potential consequences: In the midst of the Senate impeachment trial, President Trump signed a new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, perhaps the most important bipartisan accomplishment of his term and an achievement won in significant measure because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi rounded up Democratic votes of support.
Yet in the bitterness of an impeachment effort spearheaded by Mrs. Pelosi, neither she nor any other Democrats were invited to the signing ceremony, while some 70 Republicans were in attendance.
Some lawmakers pledge to try to bridge that divide in impeachment’s wake. “We need to get back to working on things on which we agree,” says Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming, a member of the Republican’s Senate leadership team. He suggests starting with a bill to fund America’s highways, normally a bipartisan task.
Still, he also says Democrats’ “partisan rhetoric” in an election year in which control of both Congress and the White House is very much up for grabs will complicate such efforts.
3. The executive strengthens yet further
The impeachment process appears to have continued a years long process of tilting the balance of power within Washington toward the executive branch and away from Congress. The president asserted his right to hold up, at least temporarily, legally appropriated foreign-aid funds for Ukraine, and then to resist all congressional attempts to subpoena witnesses and documents in the subsequent investigation.
Lawmakers from Mr. Trump’s party defended the chief executive’s right to resist congressional oversight, a precedent that won’t be forgotten. By arguing, as Sen. Lamar Alexander did in opposing calling witness to the Senate trial, that Mr. Trump’s actions in pressuring Ukraine were wrong but not impeachable, Republicans may have both clarified and pushed outward the line for any future impeachment effort.
Lawmakers from both parties have on multiple fronts—among them war powers, trade strategy and immigration policy—steadily ceded power to the president over the last two decades. Republican conservatives, though traditionally leery of too much centralized power anywhere in government, have gone along, and now may have accelerated the phenomenon with positions taken in the impeachment debate.
“The broader partisan puzzle is how and why a party that has spent 50 years trying to shrink the scope of the federal government would now be an active partner in increasing presidential power beyond the reach of Congress or even the courts,” says Wendy Schiller, chair of the political science department at Brown University and a former Democratic Senate staffer..
“The GOP has to know that the Democrats will be back in the White House again within the next decade if not sooner. Why risk giving potential President Bernie Sanders so much unfettered power?"
4. And there is an election coming...
For now, the president Republicans are concerned about is named Trump, and he is emerging from impeachment as their undisputed leader. Republicans in the House as well as the Senate closed ranks behind him, and there was little sign that the slings and arrows of Democrats did anything to hurt the president’s standing among his fervent supporters around the country.
Scott Reed, who oversees political activity for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, contends it is more than impeachment that has welded Mr. Trump and his congressional party together.
“Trump’s success at governing has driven the GOP to him,” he says. Republicans who crossed the president early in his term, such as Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jeff Flake of Arizona, have left Congress, Mr. Reed notes. In their wake, he says, “wage growth is the real magic to this growth, and silences some of the liberals."
Some Democrats say the GOP’s decision to link arms so tightly with the president carries considerable risk for party moderates, and by extension provides opportunities for their Democratic opponents. Five Senate Republicans—Susan Collins of Maine, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Cory Gardner of Colorado, Martha McSally of Arizona and Thom Tillis of North Carolina—face re-election this year in swing states where Mr. Trump is generally unpopular.
Though Sen. Collins voted in favor of calling more witnesses for the Senate trial, which was contrary to White House wishes, those senators otherwise stood solidly with the president.
Their position may have been pragmatic as much as anything. All are susceptible to a primary challengers this year. All had reason to fear they would be not only bashed by the president but also opposed from within their own party if they didn’t back him.
And Mr. Trump’s power within the party now is sufficient that all its lawmakers have to worry about incurring his wrath and that of his followers.
Democrats think impeachment now leaves those senators from swing states, as well as Republican House members from swing districts, vulnerable in a general election, where moderate voters hostile to the president can be more easily mobilized to oppose them.
Rahm Emanuel, the former Chicago mayor who once was campaign chief for House Democrats, says that risk will be especially high for such Republicans if additional, damaging information about the president’s pressure on Ukraine to investigate his opponents emerges in coming months.
“If you’re one of the five senators, you’d better be sure your vote stands the test of time,” Mr. Emanuel says. “You’d better be sure that as more information comes out—and it will come out—that this vote doesn’t come back to haunt you."
Mr. Emanuel says Democrats won back control of the House in the 2018 midterm elections by advancing moderate candidates who offered themselves as a means to provide a check on Mr. Trump’s power. “I’ll make a prediction,” Mr. Emanuel says. “Every Democrat will be running an ad about not giving Donald Trump unfettered control post-impeachment.”
5. Lessons from history
History doesn’t offer clear guidance to either party on how impeachment fallout will drop to the surface. When there was a movement to impeach President Nixon, which led to his resignation in 1974, many Republicans bailed out on their president by urging him to leave. Their decision to separate themselves from an unpopular leader didn’t help. Republicans suffered heavy losses in that year’s midterm elections.
The lesson seemed to be that abandoning a president of your own party was no guarantee of electoral success.
When the move to impeach President Bill Clinton began in 1998, Republicans united against a president of the opposite party, much as Democrats did this time, and they appeared to have at least a modicum of support among some Democrats. Yet Republicans lost ground in that year’s midterm election, and the leader of the Republican impeachment charge, House Speaker Newt Gingrich, lost his job early the following year.
The lesson seemed to be that uniting against a president of the opposite party was no guarantee of electoral success either.
In any case, the political climate is markedly different now than it was during those earlier episodes. There are fewer voters in the center, either in Congress or the electorate, and that is especially true when it comes to Mr. Trump. The vast majority of Americans appear to have locked in their views of the president long ago, and no event, including one as dramatic as an impeachment process, appears able to change that.
When the impeachment process were getting under way in October, Mr. Trump’s job-approval rating was at 45% among all voters, at 91% among Republicans, at 6% among Democrats and at 38% among independents in the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Polling now shows those job-approval ratings basically unchanged—except that Mr. Trump’s approval actually seems to have ticked up among independents.
Such findings leave his supporters buoyant in their belief that he has survived impeachment unscathed, and perhaps even strengthened slightly.
It is also possible things may not be as simple as those surface impressions suggest. There is reason to believe impeachment has heightened fervor on both sides of the Trump divide. In political terms, the question then is which set of voters is more intent upon doing something about it.
The ultimate impeachment political test may lie not in conclusions reached, but in intensity of feelings aroused.
President Donald Trump is reshaping politics in the United States. The electorate has more political power now than in recent past elections. Grass roots politics may be messier but that's not a bad thing.
Donald Trump is not fit to be a dogcatcher in Podunk, let alone hold a high office in national government.
I don't see a recognition of that reality anywhere in your analysis.
Have you considered that being unfit was why Donald Trump was elected?
Are you bragging about that?
1) That's just like, your opinion, man. 2) It's also beside the point. That's why it's not in there.
Bragging or sulking depends on which measures of 'fitness' are being applied, doesn't it?
According to the liberal elite, millions of the electorate are unfit to vote. So, the technocratic liberals plan to use public education as indoctrination centers. A mind is a terrible thing, period.
Yet the gop are the only ones who actually try to suppress the votes of groups of people they think will vote against them. Fact..
Democrats only purge voter rolls during the primaries. The facts are that rigging the primaries affects the general election, too.
It appears that he may have been more fit for the office than his opponent was / is.
I dunno. One thing for sure, Donald Trump was more electable.
It's not a precedent. Past presidents have resisted congressional oversight. Furthermore, the House did a half-assed job - at best - of pursuing that oversight. In their hysterical rush to impeach by Christmas, they forfeited any real opportunity to examine the witnesses and documents they craved. Trump didn't defeat them. They did it to themselves.
History is being rewritten in real time. The political status quo must be protected at all cost. If facts get in the way, there are alternatives.
You tRump supporters live in a world of alternate facts and alternate reality.
Apparently so. Maybe liberals need to spend more money on rural education?
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Seems that the author missed out on Clinton resisting investigation during his impeachment? The Democrats had the exact same chance in the House to go to court to compel testimony from those protected by EP; they failed to do so. That is not the Senate's fault; nor is it their job to call new witnesses. The Democrats fought tooth and nail to have no witnesses called during the Clinton impeachment in the Senate. Instead they only had 3 witnesses that were already called by the House- none of them were live- they watched the House interview tapes.
The author also fails to take into account not one Democrat thought Clinton was innocent. They simply converted real crimes into talking points. It wasn't perjury- Clinton lied about sex; it wasn't obstruction of justice (witness tampering)- it was a vast right wing conspiracy.
Head the written word of Chuck (massive hypocrite) Schumer.
Schumer should be choking on his current words. He was the divisive side in the Clinton impeachment- and now he is to use his own words.
Schumer, Pelosi, and the rest of the Democratic mob have less honor than Trump. That is saying a ton.
But that's not important. The important thing to sell a story that fits today's conventional wisdom. History is dry, boring, and irrelevant to the task at hand.
The whole impeachment has been motivated by politics; not facts, truth, the Constitution, or the rule of law. Democrats have demonstrated they will sell their souls for a few political points. But that debt to the devil can't be ignored; the devil will have his due.
Clinton actually testified under oath, and they got evidence. Try another fake defense of the criminal in the WH.
Clinton did not testify during the impeachment process.
And Clinton actually committed a legal infraction that was the basis for articles of impeachment. I don't recall Clinton being impeached for using the Lincoln bedroom to obtain political donations. Remember China gate? As Alan Dershowitz argued, politics is not an adequate justification for impeachment.
Did I say that Clinton testified during the process? I said Clinton testified under oath. Now refute that. Trump can't and never will.
No, Clinton was impeached for lying about a blow job, period. If they had more they would have used it. They started with Whitewater and ended with the blow. And of course, my statement of Clinton testifying under oath is true, and evidence AND witnesses came out in the Senate trial, including Monica, also TRUE.
Give up the Dershbag arguments. Nobody agrees with him, he is a defense whore, follow the money and the new position will follow. Go find some scholars and experts that agree with him, and we can compare them with those who think he is full of crap.
While Trump may not be thrown out of office at this point, the blatant crimes that he has committed against America as its President, as well as those as an American citizen, he will still have to face them once he leaves the WH.
The down side to this is that, knowing that he will face the crimes he has committed before and after being elected President, he will likely do all he can to declare himself the Dictator of America and refuse to leave the WH if he is elected to a second term, which is still not a done deal.
While it is most likely that all the Trump supporters here on NT will be more than happy to have him become a dictator of America, there are many Americans who would not be willing to see that happen.
So it will be fun to see how it all works out from here.