No, Trump Isn't Going to Drop Out
By: Rich Lowry (POLITICO)
Why would Trump supporters participate in polls? According to the conventional wisdom narrative touted by media, Trump supporters distrust institutional politics. And considering how Trump supporters have been treated it's unlikely that they will simply volunteer for more public abuse. Common sense suggests the race is much closer than polling and the talking-head media indicates.
Enthusiasm has been replaced by a grim determination. Joe Biden represents an establishment that Trump supporters repudiated. Biden hasn't been defending that establishment status quo, either. Joe Biden has been taking voters for granted by trotting out the same old pablum, pandering, and political double speak that has been the hallmark of establishment politics over the last several decades. Joe Biden hasn't been promising change or offering anything new. Biden has only offered pandering promises that he cannot keep.
Joe Biden attacking Trump is just more of the same. Attacking Trump has become a de rigueur political expectation by fanatical factions on the left. Biden has adopted a campaign style that appeals to the liberal fringe of the Democratic Party while promising to return to moderate establishment policy making. Joe Biden isn't promising to change anything.
After everything that has been thrown at Donald Trump over the last 3 1/2 years, why would Trump quit now? Trump has survived the conventional wisdom of establishment politics. The establishment has been wrong all along and now Trump supporters are supposed to believe what that establishment is saying?
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
After he's repeatedly survived the unsurvivable, we are supposed to believe that President Donald Trump might quit the presidential race before it truly begins after a spate of negative polling.
This is the latest chatter among (unnamed) Republicans, according to a widely circulated Fox News report and to cable-news talking heads.
Trump is a volatile figure and things could get weird if he's far behind in the final weeks of the campaign. But the idea that he is going to fall on his sword because the conventional wisdom has turned sharply against his chances runs starkly counter to his predilections and past actions.
Good luck convincing Trump he's going to lose after he survived the "Access Hollywood" tape that had GOP officeholders deserting him in droves and after he prevailed on an election night when many people closest to him and most invested in his victory thought he was sure to go down to defeat.
There's nothing any political consultant, pollster or adviser can tell him about his dire political condition that he hasn't heard, and dismissed, before.
If the polling looks bad for him now, Hillary Clinton had sizable leads in 2016, too.
Plus, there's no reason for Trump to trust the polls, especially the state polls, when many of them were wrong in 2016 and the methodological issues—the over-sampling of college-educated voters—haven't been resolved.
The assumption behind the Trump-might-drop-out chatter is that the president would want to avoid the psychological sting of a loss, but he's already signaled how he'll handle a defeat—by saying he was robbed.
With this rationalization in his back pocket, there's no reason for Trump to forgo any chance whatever of remaining the most talked-about man on the planet for the next four years by dropping out based on early summer polling.
The anonymous Republicans chattering about this scenario surely are wish-casting and assume some other—any other—GOP presidential candidate would be better for the party's chances. This, too, is doubtful.
How would the great drop-and-switch even work? The party would be implicitly conceding that the incumbent Republican president was such a disaster that he couldn't even run for a second term—and then turn around and ask voters for four more years of yet another Republican president.
One of the points of this exercise would be to repudiate Trump, but how could the party plausibly do that after loyally and enthusiastically backing him for four years? Who would be a turn-the-page candidate? The natural successor would be Vice President Mike Pence, but he's obviously more associated with Trump than any other figure in the party besides the president's direct relatives.
How about a Trump critic, say, Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse? But such a choice would be whiplash-inducing change of direction for a party led the moment before by Trump.
The president's base wouldn't go away even if Trump said he wasn't running again, and its feelings would have to be taken into account—not to mention that Trump loyalists would make up a disproportionate share of Republican convention delegates, who would presumably make the choice of a new candidate.
At a time of great populist passion in the GOP, deciding on a presidential candidate without the direct say of any voters would be fraught with peril, to say the least—and more likely to produce a civil war than comity.
Then, there's the question of Trump himself. Unless the Trump-stepping-aside scenario becomes even more implausible and involves him resigning the presidency and getting dropped off by Marine One at a monastery to begin a four-month silent retreat, he's not going to quietly abide some other Republican soaking up all the public attention that comes with being one of two people who will be the next president of the United States.
Perhaps Joe Biden indeed has a durable 10-point lead, in which case there's nothing the GOP can do to avoid a terrible drubbing. If Biden is that strong, some emergency replacement Republican candidate—hastily chosen amid a political panic—isn't going to win, either.
It's more likely, though, that the race will naturally tighten and Trump will be behind, but within range and have a puncher's chance.
The past three months have been dreadful for the president and nothing he's used against Biden has worked, but campaigning is an iterative process—if one tack doesn't work, it's on to the next one, until something gets traction.
Everything we know about Trump says he'll keep at this with relish, and that there's no way he quits without even trying to win the ultimate vindication for any president, and the ultimate repudiation of his critics.
How many people are excited about the 2020 election? This election is more about grim determination than enthusiasm.
The first thing I noticed was that this op-ed was written a month ago. Things have been steadily going downhill for Trump since this piece was written.
That's only true according to conventional wisdom. But 2020 will be an unconventional election. Enthusiasm doesn't appear to be a reliable indicator this time.
Of course he's not going to drop out. He's trying to avoid Federal prison. That's his only agenda.
Avoid federal prison for what? Because you don't like him? That is not a federal offense
As usual. Ask a question to a liberal and get nothing but crickets in return.
As I told you before arkpdx, I'm not here to answer your questions. I have a life outside of Newstalkers. I don't hang around all day and all night on Newstalkers to answer your questions. I actually have a life. I actually have a job . . . . . . . .
At least be honest and admit you make it all up on the fly.
I didn't make up shit. . . that's for the tRumpers.
Then prove your accusations. Until you do wew just just have to assume that you made them up.
He is hoping for a last minute Hail Mary or a stay of execution. His detail should carry fire exstinguihers as results come in. Trump is sure to spontaneously combust.
Spontaneously combust? If you mean like THIS, yes, this is a good allegory for it.
Our pathetic partisan politics yielded two candidates for the highest office in the land —ostensibly the most powerful office on the planet— and neither should be holding any office of significance at this point in time.
I don't get it. Why the hell shouldn't Joe Biden be holding any office at this point in time?
Because he clearly has impaired mental faculties. Biden should be gracefully retiring from politics at this stage of his life, not running for PotUS. I trust I need not explain why I believe Trump is not qualified for PotUS?
i thought you pride yourself in logic. The only thing Biden does is hesitate a little at times and slightly stutter.
Show us an objective analysis that says Biden is mentally impaired.
You might recall there was a book written about Trump's mental problems.
The Dangerous Case of Donald Trump: 27 Psychiatrists and Mental Health Experts Assess a President – October 3, 2017
Didn't Joe Biden have a problem with stuttering which he largely overcame?
To say that Joe Biden has impaired mental faculties is nonsense, ridiculous, outrageous.
And tRump is?
I gave you my opinion; although I have to wonder how this is not obvious to everyone. I have observed him during this campaign compared to an earlier Joe (e.g. Joe on the campaign trail in 2008) and he is clearly not up for the job; not circa 2020. If you disagree and need professional opinions on Biden for your own edification, feel free to research that yourself.
For a moment, forget he is running against Trump (if you can do that). Are you going to say with full honesty that you think Joe Biden's mental faculties are suited for the office of PotUS? You have no reservations on his cognitive abilities right now with an expectation that by 2024 it will likely be worse?
Focus, John, you were asking about Biden.
Well look at it this way Tessy. When I see Joe Biden on his own engaging in debate against Trump, I am not going to be comfortable. I expect him to lose his train of thought, forget obvious words and basically come across poorly. If he does not do that I will be pleasantly surprised.
I think it inexplicable for you to so confidently hold that Biden is actually sharp to deem my concern as "nonsense, ridiculous, outrageous". I do not have such blind confidence based on what I have observed, rather, Biden has me concerned. I am surprised you are not.
Stuttering is not an indicator of impaired mental facilities.
King George V1, Prince Albert, Winston Churchill, Marilyn Monroe, Mel Tillis, and Bruce Willis have a history of stuttering.
Oh I know that, it seems that some are implying that Mr. Biden is mentally unfit because he sometimes stutters. It's hard to overcome stuttering and I commend him for that. I would never make fun of someone for that reason.
Don't bother. Your first sentence is so ridiculous I don't why I even responded to it in the first place.
I honestly don't care what you think and have observed about Joe Biden.
I trust Joe Biden to appoint those that have knowledge and experience for those important administration posts, unlike tRump and not surround himself by flunkies, like tRump. I trust Joe Biden to surround himself by those competent for the job at hand and take the advice of those experts around him. . I trust him to have briefings and actually listen and heed what he is advised about.
I don't think anyone noticed in a tRump interview, when he was asked about briefings, he said first that he had briefings a couple of times a week, then quickly backpedaled to say every day.
You don't need to answer, I'm good.
Funny how Biden’s stuttering excuse only miraculously appears now, in 2020. Wasn’t a problem at any other point in his 5 decades of public life. Putting aside how many lies he manages to tell about himself in such a brief statement, just pay attention to how he speaks. No "stutter". No grasping for obvious words. He just barks out lie after lie, fluidly. Compare this Biden to the guy who has trouble seeming coherent in staged campaign appearances from his basement. Hard to tell its the same person.
He's a very old man undergoing mental decline. It's not his fault. Pretending not to see what's taking place right in front of you is just bizarre.
@4.1.14 and @4.1.15 is great way to poison the well; we disagree on a point and you immediately treat me as ‘the enemy’.
I found that there are a lot of famous people who had a stuttering problem. They eventually overcame it, but Mel Tillis used it to his advantage whenever he had a movie role. My husband had a stutter when he was a kid but if he would get stressed or was exhausted, it came back just a little.
In other words, you got nothing.
Maybe you are upset that Biden has a wide lead in most of the polls because you predicted a Trump win.
Last week Biden gave a speech and took numerous questions from the national press. Not a single one of them later wrote that Biden looked diminished. To the contrary some of the reporters commented on in command of the moment he seemed.
Stop promoting Trump on this forum for christ sake , the election is getting close.
Unless you really want him.
No, in other words I do not have a medical report of Biden by a medical professional who has tested him for cognitive decline. What I do have is Joe Biden in action today. I gave you my position based on what I have observed. You do not like that. Not my problem. If you think my assessment is wrong then deliver the current medical report on Biden's cognitive health. Until I see such a report, I am going by the evidence available to me.
Well now, how slimy. Prior to the virus I repeatedly stated that Trump had three major advantages:
I did not predict Trump would win, I stated that these are major advantages that will be difficult to overcome. I also stated that if the economy went south, Trump would be in trouble.
The virus hit, the economy went south and I watched. My position as of a few months ago is that the candidate most likely seen to repair our economy (perception is all that matters) will likely win.
Now, the situation is that the economy is stressed AND people are very much NOT content — stressed out by the continuing pandemic and the difficulties it presents. They will naturally blame Trump for both the poor economy and lack of contentment and this will turn two major advantages into disadvantages.
Don't presume. If you have a question about my analysis then ask it. When I see people putting words in my mouth I have to wonder if that is the best they have to offer; they must resort to intellectual dishonesty instead of making a thoughtful argument.
Oh, well, nevermind then. I guess he is cured.
It is fascinating to watch you twist anything into 'promoting Trump'. You seem to go fishing for any commentary that is not flattering to Biden and totally ignore the critical and negative comments I routinely make about Trump. No, I do not buy that you do not see them. What I see is intentional cherry-picking and entirely dishonest allegations.
If you think that your spinning will stop me from stating my criticism of Biden you are wrong; you should know that by now.
I am growing very tired of the hyper partisans who are so tied to partisan politics that they have lost the ability to even recognize objective analysis.
I trust him to have briefings and actually listen and heed what he is advised about.
If elected by some miracle, Biden will simply be a front and center stage puppet, his strings being manipulated and being told what to say or do on a daily basis.
Within a short time, he will resign because of "health reasons" which will leave us at the mercy of the evil leftists.
Of course they didn't. They media is out giving him cover whenever possible. They won't say anything negative about him if it killed them
If Trump wins, I know who I'm blaming. Not you personally, but all the "both sides" people who act as if there is any sort of real choice in this election.
The only way Trump can win is by getting enough people to think there is something wrong with Biden. The only way.
NO ONE who wants Trump out should take part in any 'analysis' that will help him make his "argument".
If trump wins you can blame me, a blue collar guy who used to prefer dems because of their supposedly labor friendly platform. But i don’t see how their open borders, free healthcare for all (even foreigners/illegals, pc cancel culture and other things help the working man or woman.
It does not matter who you blame, John. Your blame has no impact on anything other than your private mental state of mind.
It does not matter who you convince to not vote for Trump (or even for those you embolden to vote for Trump). All this animosity, bad-mouthing, tactics, etc. will make zero difference in the election.
You will just have to learn to live with this, because I will make comments based on my assessment of the situation. I do not have the illusion that anything I write will make any difference whatsoever in who becomes the next PotUS. I am not here to try to persuade people to vote a particular way. Thus I am entirely free to engage in objective analysis. I have done this consistently so you should be used to it by now.
My analysis as of today is that Trump is the underdog because he has (as of now) lost the economic advantage (but Biden has not gained advantage because I do not think the electorate views Biden as being a net plus on the economy). On the economy it is Trump:0 and Biden:0. But Trump is blamed for the pandemic (the domestic part of it) and it seems to me that the electorate gives the advantage here to Biden. On the pandemic it is Trump:0 and Biden:1.
If Biden can convince voters that his mind is sharp and Trump's factors do not change, then Biden looks like the winner. If the economy rebounds by October then Trump will regain his biggest advantage. If the pandemic is perceived to be under control by then (does not seem likely), Trump has a good shot for reelection. Also, Biden's choice for VP will likely weigh heavily with independents since (being realistic) she has a decent shot at inheriting the presidency.
Meanwhile, you will be on social media stomping your foot and screaming about Trump for over 4 years and will wind up making as much net difference as spilling a drop of water into a lake.
joe will refuse to debate because trump won't release his taxes... LOL
Hey we agree on something! I said the same thing in 2016. In my opinion anybody that actually wants the job of POTUS is not sane enough to qualify for the job.
I have no idea who the Democratic Party would put in Biden's place, but the Republicans do have possibilities - Pompeo made a speech at the Nixon library that signaled his ambition, and Nikki Haley is more qualified than Trump ever was.
It would be quite a major surprise if this is not Trump vs. Biden on November 3rd.
I personally think that Trump WANTS to go down in glory...like this: