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August jobs report showed a strong economy — and that's very bad for Democrats

  
Via:  XXJefferson51  •  5 years ago  •  27 comments


August jobs report showed a strong economy — and that's very bad for Democrats
Those are great results in any context, but the magnitude and durability of this economic expansion is especially remarkable in light of the gloomy economic consensus that existed before President Trump took office — during what even Obama economist Larry Summers referred to as "the age of secular stagnation."

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We the People

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T




The new jobs report is in and the verdict is clear — no one should believe a single word the Democrats say about the economy .

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the number of people employed in August increased by a very impressive 590,000, pushing total employment to a record-high of nearly 157.9 million. The percentage of the population that was employed rose to 60.9 percent, the highest percentage since December 2008.

As a result, despite over 570,000 people joining the labor force, the unemployment rate held at 3.7 percent, near a 50-year low. Unemployment among African Americans and Hispanics also hit all-time lows last month, proving that the ongoing economic boom is still creating unprecedented opportunity for all U.S. workers .

Average hourly earnings increased at a healthy clip as well, growing by 3.2 percent since last August. It was the 13th month in a row that wages increased by at least 3 percent year over year. That’s tremendous news for American workers. Prior to this streak, wages last increased at least 3 percent in April of 2009.

Wage increases were better for workers than managers. While the hourly wage increased 2 percent for managers, it increased an impressive 3.5 percent for workers. For workers earning the average hourly rate ($23.59) and working 40 hours per week, that meant a raise of nearly $1,650 for the year. And, that’s before the impact of reduced individual tax rates thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which saved the average U.S. worker approximately $1,400 in federal income taxes in 2018.

With more money in their pockets, consumers are spending. Keep in mind, consumer spending accounted for 68 percent of U.S. GDP in 2018. The imminent recession that Democrats keep predicting requires two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. With more people working, making more money, and taking home more of what they earn, it’s no surprise that in the second quarter of this year consumer spending increased 4.7 percent, the biggest quarterly increase since 2014 and the second biggest since 2003. Consumer spending surged again in July, a preliminary indication of third quarter economic strength.

Those are great results in any context, but the magnitude and durability of this economic expansion is especially remarkable in light of the gloomy economic consensus that existed before President Trump took office — during what even Obama economist Larry Summers referred to as "the age of secular stagnation."

Just before the 2016 presidential election, when President Obama’s economic defeatism was still the order of the day, the Congressional Budget Office 10-year economic projections predicted the economy would add about 2 million new jobs from the end of 2016 through the end of 2019. Thanks to the shift to a common-sense, pro-growth agenda, however, we’ve actually gained an impressive 6.1 million new jobs since end of 2016 — more than 2 million in just the last 12 months, including 130,000 new jobs in August.

How have we emerged from the age of secular stagnation? The Trump administration made it easier for businesses to hire and invest by slashing hundreds of job-killing regulations that had stifled entrepreneurialism and by reducing corporate taxes to a level that encourages businesses to invest in America creating more jobs, more competition for employees, increased wages and broad based prosperity.

Regrettably, there are some who still refuse to give President Trump the credit he deserves for rebuilding our economic engine. Many point to the current trade war with China as slowing business investment. This may be slowing what would otherwise be more impressive economic growth, but slower growth is still growth and far different than recession. The President is taking a stand against China’s unfair and criminal trade practices that other presidents should have taken 30 years ago. He is acting for American’s future as opposed to political gain today. He deserves our support. Nonetheless, the fact that his opponents are critical of his actions is no surprise.

Since his very first day in office, the Democrat-media complex has made it their mission to discredit President Trump in anticipation of the next presidential election — even when that meant actively rooting for a recession. In recent weeks, the mainstream media have been making daily predictions of economic catastrophe, with a telling focus on whether it will occur in time for the election.

Just days ahead of the August jobs report, CNBC published an article digesting "a list of recession signals that are flashing red." A few weeks earlier, The New York Times published an entire article speculating about "how the recession of 2020 could happen," despite acknowledging that we “may well avoid one for the foreseeable future."

Sadly for Democrats and the media, the August jobs report offered confirmation that the U.S. economy is not going to cooperate with their political strategy. Whichever far-left extremist the Democrats nominate to run in 2020 will have to contend with the daunting prospect of running against an incumbent president who can justifiably claim credit for an economy that put real dollars in voters wallets — as they head to the polls.


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XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
1  seeder  XXJefferson51    5 years ago

Regrettably, there are some who still refuse to give President Trump the credit he deserves for rebuilding our economic engine. Many point to the current trade war with China as slowing business investment. This may be slowing what would otherwise be more impressive economic growth, but slower growth is still growth and far different than recession. The President is taking a stand against China’s unfair and criminal trade practices that other presidents should have taken 30 years ago. He is acting for American’s future as opposed to political gain today. He deserves our support. Nonetheless, the fact that his opponents are critical of his actions is no surprise.

Since his very first day in office, the Democrat-media complex has made it their mission to discredit President Trump in anticipation of the next presidential election — even when that meant actively rooting for a recession. In recent weeks, the mainstream media have been making daily predictions of economic catastrophe, with a telling focus on whether it will occur in time for the election.

Just days ahead of the August jobs report, CNBC published an article digesting "a list of recession signals that are flashing red." A few weeks earlier, The New York Times published an entire article speculating about "how the recession of 2020 could happen," despite acknowledging that we “may well avoid one for the foreseeable future."

Sadly for Democrats and the media, the August jobs report offered confirmation that the U.S. economy is not going to cooperate with their political strategy. https://thenewstalkers.com/vic-eldred/group_discuss/6913/august-jobs-report-showed-a-strong-economy-and-thats-very-bad-for-democrats

 
 
 
MrFrost
Professor Expert
1.1  MrFrost  replied to  XXJefferson51 @1    5 years ago

Why in the fuck do you keep inserting links to articles that we are already on? Seriously, it makes NO sense at all. 

Just days ahead of the August jobs report, CNBC published an article digesting "a list of recession signals that are flashing red."

Actually most economists agree that a recession is on the horizon. Doesn't mean it will happen, (and I hope it doesn't), but it DOES show that economists Are treading lightly. 

Why doesn't the right ever want to discuss the debt anymore? When Obama was in office the right screamed about the debt literally every day. Now? Not a peep, despite trump adding almost 3 trillion to the debt in 3 years, and is running a 1.2 TRILLION deficit. I know I wont get an answer because there is no way to explain it other than trump loves to spend money, especially the taxpayers money. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
1.1.1  Vic Eldred  replied to  MrFrost @1.1    5 years ago
Why doesn't the right ever want to discuss the debt anymore?

It will be my pleasure:

The Largest Deficits

The U.S. government started the 21st century strong with two years of   surpluses   in 2000 and 2001, but it hasn’t seen a surplus since then. Over the last 17 years through 2018, the U.S. government budget has averaged an annual deficit of $638.403 billion. The largest annual deficits ever were achieved by the Obama Administration in 2009, 2011, and 2010 when the deficits reached $1.413 trillion, $1.300 trillion, and $1.294 trillion, respectively.

During Obama’s eight years of presidency, he accumulated deficits totaling $7.27 trillion. Over his eight years in office that averaged out to $909 billion annually.

Preceding Obama, President George W. Bush reported a leading annual budget deficit of $458.6 billion in 2008. George W. Bush reported budget deficits in seven of his eight years in office with total budget deficits of $2.134 trillion.

President Trump has continued the budget deficit trend. In 2017, the deficit was $665.4 billion followed by a deficit of $779.1 billion in 2018. Estimates show that the budget deficit under President Trump is expected to keep rising. The budget deficit is expected to top $1 trillion in 2019 and remain above $1 trillion through 2022.

investopedia.com/ask/answers/030515/which-united-states-presidents-have-run-largest-budget-deficits.asp



BTW, Also to be considered:

Mandatory spending usually accounts for the greatest portion of the budget. It includes permanent programs with spending that varies based on eligibility. Discretionary spending accounts for approximately 30%. This spending is broken out into defense and nondefense.

As mentioned, mandatory spending is already built into the budget for national programs such as   Social Security , welfare, and Medicare. These programs are acts of Congress and would require further acts to amend or eliminate. Discretionary spending varies by year.





Let me add

That in the case of Donald Trump he had to rebuild a depleted military (under Obama) and sign onto a budget loaded with democrat pork in order to get a budget passed.




Anything else you want to know?

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.2  Tessylo  replied to  MrFrost @1.1    5 years ago

Deficits only matter to republicons when a democrat is President.  

 
 
 
Dean Moriarty
Professor Quiet
1.1.3  Dean Moriarty  replied to  Tessylo @1.1.2    5 years ago

How so? I support Trumps proposed budget cuts do you? Unfortunately the Democrats in congress won’t approve them. 

The Trump administration released its 2020 budget request on Monday , proposing major cuts to federal government spending.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
1.1.4  JohnRussell  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.1    5 years ago

Since Trump took office wages have increased slightly over the rate of inflation. While it certainly is not a decrease, the idea that this is all some great boon for the average person is borderline ridiculous. If you are making 20 dollars an hour (and half of Americans make less than that, some much less) an annual real wages increase of 1% means you are now making 20.20 an hour.   LET'S HAVE A PARTY !

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
1.1.5  Tessylo  replied to  Dean Moriarty @1.1.3    5 years ago

So you support his diverting all those funds from the military to build his wall?

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
1.1.6  Ender  replied to  Tessylo @1.1.5    5 years ago

Can only shake my head at their stupidity. At how his diversion of funds impacted McConnell's state. It is screw the kids of the military families...

For almost two decades , families at Fort Campbell, the sprawling Army base along the Kentucky-Tennessee border, have borne the brunt of the country’s war efforts as a steady clip of troops with the 101st Airborne Division and from Special Operations units deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq.

This week, the families discovered that they would not get the new middle school they were expecting so that President Trump could build his border wall. The school is on the   list of 127 projects , touching nearly every facet of American military life, that will be suspended to shift $3.6 billion to the wall.

 
 
 
MrFrost
Professor Expert
1.1.7  MrFrost  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.1    5 years ago

Obama cut the deficit by 2/3rd's too Vic, you forgot that part. 

 
 
 
MrFrost
Professor Expert
1.1.8  MrFrost  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.1.1    5 years ago
During Obama’s eight years of presidency, he accumulated deficits totaling $7.27 trillion.

Obama inherited an economy that was in a freefall losing 800k jobs a month. The democratic congress with Obama, got us out of the recession caused by yet another republican that gave tax breaks to the rich and increased spending. To recover the economy was expensive, we also had to pay for GWB's wars that he kept off the books, (he admitted he did it, so spare us the spin). So what's trump excuse? He was handed a growing and solid economy, so why has he almost tripled the deficit and add almost 3 trillion to the debt? There is literally no excuse for it. 

Depleted military? You may want to look again, Obama increased military spending. Also, our military is larger than the next 10 militaries combined. Depleted? Fucking laughable vic..

Deficit by year....

(year/Deficit in billions/debt/deficit&GDP)

2000 ($236) $18  (2.3%) Surplus
2001 ($128) $133  (1.2%) 9/11 attacks, EGTRRA
2002 $158 $421   1.4% War on Terror
2003 $378 $555   3.3% JGTRRA
2004 $413 $596   3.4% Iraq War
2005 $318 $554   2.4% Katrina, Bankruptcy Act
2006 $248 $574   1.8% Bernanke chairs Fed
2007 $161 $501   1.1% Bank crisis
2008 $459 $1,017   3.1% Bank bailout, QE
2009 $1,413 $1,632   9.8% Stimulus Act. Bank bailout cost $250B, ARRA added $241.9B
2010 $1,294 $1,905   8.6% Obama tax cuts, ACA, Simpson-Bowles
2011 $1,300 $1,229   8.3% Debt crisis, recession and tax cuts reduced revenue
2012 $1,087 $1,276   6.7% Fiscal cliff
2013 $679 $672   4.0% Sequester, government shutdown
2014 $485 $1,086   2.7% Debt ceiling
2015 $438 $327   2.4% Defense = $736.4B
2016  $585 $1,423   3.1% Defense = $767.6B
2017 $665 $672   3.4% Defense = $817.9B
2018 (est) $779 $1,217   4.0% Defense = $890.8B. Trump tax cuts
2019 (est) $1,091 $1,314   n/a Defense = $956.5B
 
 
 
Ronin2
Professor Quiet
1.1.9  Ronin2  replied to  Tessylo @1.1.2    5 years ago

Deficits only matter to Demoncrats when a republican is President.

Funny how that works isn't it?

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
1.1.10  Texan1211  replied to  MrFrost @1.1    5 years ago
Why doesn't the right ever want to discuss the debt anymore? When Obama was in office the right screamed about the debt literally every day. Now? Not a peep,

Why doesn't the left merely ignore the debt like they did for 8 years of Obama?

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
1.1.11  seeder  XXJefferson51  replied to  Texan1211 @1.1.10    5 years ago

Good question!  

 
 
 
MrFrost
Professor Expert
2  MrFrost    5 years ago
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2009 -783 -742 -803 -694 -344 -465 -341 -184 -242 -198 12 -269
2010 3 -92 180 237 534 -136 -88 -5 -64 269 123 74
2011 20 213 232 321 95 235 61 122 236 204 132 204
2012 355 262 238 83 99 72 153 170 189 158 158 237
2013 195 279 136 192 224 181 105 242 189 225 267 67
2014 177 168 250 327 221 324 227 188 311 258 286 269
2015 213 248 77 300 319 170 293 122 133 339 235 280
2016 90 232 234 211 15 282 336 135 270 128 170 215
2017 252 141 127 213 128 229 204 187 18 260 220 174
2018 171 330 182 196 270 262 178 282 108 277 196 227
2019 312 56 153 216 62 178 159 130

The jobs report was expected to be 230k for August. They came up short, and the chart above shows that job growth is decreasing. 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
3  Vic Eldred    5 years ago

The economy still steady as she goes:

"Hiring increased by 130,000 — including 25,000 temporary census workers — falling short of Wall Street’s 158,000 projection, according to data released by the Labor Department.

Still, the report is probably not soft enough to convince officials at the U.S. central bank to aggressively lower rates. Unemployment remained at 3.7 percent for the third month in a row and wages are continuing to grow, with the average worker’s paycheck increasing by 11 cents to $28.11 an hour."

 
 
 
Ender
Professor Principal
4  Ender    5 years ago

So any small increase in pay, any small amount that might be saved by the so called tax cuts is eaten up by the tariffs imposed by trump.

Seems to me everything is pretty much at a standstill. 

 
 
 
Tessylo
Professor Principal
5  Tessylo    5 years ago

'So any small increase in pay, any small amount that might be saved by the so called tax cuts is eaten up by the tariffs imposed by trump.'

EXACTLY!

 
 
 
lady in black
Professor Quiet
6  lady in black    5 years ago

Sad when people are willing to take crumbs from the fucktard in the white house yet praise him as the greatest things since sliced bread.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
6.1  JohnRussell  replied to  lady in black @6    5 years ago

I guess people are willing to fall prey to slick salesmanship. For the average or "median" person, the economy is very little different than it was under Obama. Thats ok, thats acceptable, but Trump tells everyone we have the greatest economy EVER and enough people believe it to maintain consumer spending. Much of this spending is going on to credit cards. 

 
 
 
KDMichigan
Junior Participates
6.1.1  KDMichigan  replied to  JohnRussell @6.1    5 years ago
For the average or "median" person, the economy is very little different than it was under Obama.

I know right, I mean all those part time jobs in the service industry that made up most of Obama job growth compared to manufacturing job Growth under President Trump. We need to get back to them record amount of people getting government assistance though to be as great as the anointed Obama.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
6.1.2  JohnRussell  replied to  KDMichigan @6.1.1    5 years ago
Manufacturing employment growth is slowing, production is down and factory owners are cutting hours. In July, the most recent month for which the Labor Department has data, overall hours worked by nonmanagerial factory workers  declined at its fastest rate since early 2010 . Similarly, the average factory worker is getting less  overtime  than at any point since 2011.

...this year, manufacturing has turned south and entered what Federal Reserve data shows is now in a  technical recession , or  six-month slump . It doesn’t seem likely to recover in the near future: a major survey of U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers now shows a negative outlook, and the other is just a whisker away from going negative for the first time since 2009.

 
 
 
KDMichigan
Junior Participates
6.1.3  KDMichigan  replied to  JohnRussell @6.1.2    5 years ago

WaPo jrSmiley_10_smiley_image.gif

There is still way more manufacturing jobs in the so called left wing medias downturn than there was in Obama's whole presidency. Stats don't lie.

256  

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
6.1.4  Vic Eldred  replied to  KDMichigan @6.1.3    5 years ago

And minorities are benefiting:


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Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
6.1.5  Vic Eldred  replied to  Vic Eldred @6.1.4    5 years ago

Great to be w/ +175 leaders from gov, industry & academia for the

#AIinGovSummit to highlight innovative efforts underway across Fed agencies to use #AI to improve gov services on behalf of the American people + look forward to future transformative applications!


EED4-1HW4AALyPv?format=jpg&name=small

 
 
 
Krishna
Professor Expert
7  Krishna    5 years ago

"August Jobs Report"

Those of us who follow the markets are constantly exposed to all sorts of economic reports-- both for individual companies as well as the economy as a whole. .And realize that there are basically two types-- those that are "forward looking" (predictive)-- and those that are backward looking (what's already happened in the past).

The August jobs report is a "Backward Looking" measure . . . 

 
 

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