Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions

  
Via:  Vic Eldred  •  2 months ago  •  71 comments

By:    Ian Schwartz

Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesn't Match The Doomsday Media Predictions
Models are models. We are -- there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience.

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White House coronavirus task force member Dr. Deborah Birx warned the public not to panic when they hear about models and projections of the pandemic's spread.

"Models are models," she said. "When people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience."

She said the media should not "make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there, or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that."

"It's our job collectively to assure the American people," she also said. "There is no model right now -- no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that."


DR. DEBORAH BRIX: I'm sure you have seen the recent report out of the U.K. about them adjusting completely their needs. This is really quite important. If you remember, that was the report that says there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They've adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. Half a million to 20,000. We are looking at that in great detail to understand that adjustment.

I'm going to say something that is a little bit complicated but do it in a way we can understand it together. In the model, either you have to have a large group of people who a-asymptomatic, who never presented for any test to have the kind of numbers predicted. To get to 60 million people infected, you have to have a large group of a-symptomatics. We have not seen an attack rate over 1 in 1,000. So either we are measuring the iceberg and underneath it, are a large group of people. So we are working hard to get the antibody test and figure out who these people are and do they exist. Or we have the transmission completely wrong.

So these are the things we are looking at, because the predictions of the model don't match the reality on the ground in China, South Korea or Italy. We are five times the size of Italy. If we were Italy and did all those divisions, Italy should have close to 400,000 deaths. They are not close to achieving that.

Models are models. We are -- there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience.

And the situation about ventilators. We are reassured in meeting with our colleagues in New York that there are still I.C.U. Beds remaining and still significant -- over 1,000 or 2,000 ventilators that have not been utilized.

Please for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations, Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion. You can be thinking about it in the hospital. Certainly, hospitals talk about this on a daily basis, but to say that to the American people and make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that.

It's our job collectively to assure the American people, it's our job to make sure that doesn't happen. You can see the cases are concentrated in highly urban areas and there are other parts of the states that have lots of ventilators and other parts of New York state that don't have any infected. We can meet the needs by being responsive.

There is no model right now -- no reality on the ground where we can see that 60% to 70% of Americans are going to get infected in the next eight to 12 weeks. I want to be clear about that. We are adapting to the reality on the ground and looking at the models of how they can inform but learning from South Korea and Italy and from Spain and I know you will look up my numbers.


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Vic Eldred
1  seeder  Vic Eldred    2 months ago

Please note:

Dr. Birx: Coronavirus Data Doesnt Match The Doomsday Media Predictions



 
 
 
r.t..b...
1.1  r.t..b...  replied to  Vic Eldred @1    2 months ago
Dr. Birx:

A welcome voice of rational thinking, along with Dr. Fauci. Both long-time public servants without political aspirations or affiliation.

Here's hoping they continue to hold sway in helping form public policy in addressing this issue...science over any other concerns at this point is the only realistic answer, lest we continue putting our fellow citizens lives at risk. 

 
 
 
Split Personality
1.2  Split Personality  replied to  Vic Eldred @1    2 months ago

Yet President Trump apparently doesn't believe Dr Birx as evidenced by today's nationalizing of GM.

Go figure...

 
 
 
KDMichigan
1.2.1  KDMichigan  replied to  Split Personality @1.2    2 months ago
Yet President Trump apparently doesn't believe Dr Birx as evidenced by today's nationalizing of GM.

I just got home from work. Are the left actually crying about this? No matter what he does the TDS crowd will cry about it.

 
 
 
Split Personality
1.2.2  Split Personality  replied to  KDMichigan @1.2.1    2 months ago
I just got home from work.

Glad to hear you are still working.

Are the left actually crying about this?

I don't know.  I can't speak for whoever you think the "left " is.

No matter what he does the TDS crowd will cry about it.

granted, and the TAS crowd will lap it up, regardless of the contradictions with previous statements.

 
 
 
KDMichigan
1.2.3  KDMichigan  replied to  Split Personality @1.2.2    2 months ago
Glad to hear you are still working.

Yup I'm breaking the law. I am the only one working in a new construction house by myself. This goes against Whitmer's orders.

 
 
 
Tessylo
1.2.4  Tessylo  replied to  Split Personality @1.2    2 months ago

I heard the 'president' is not happy with Mr. Fauci as of late.

Cant have the public properly informed.   It doesn't make Mr. Trump look good.

Did you see at that recent press conference where the reporter asked him about disassembling the pandemic response team back in 2018?  We would have been far better prepared than we are now if he hadn't done that.  As usual he passed the buck.  

He was not happy that the world knows he did this and is an inept and bumbling and incompetent fool

 
 
 
Tessylo
1.2.5  Tessylo  replied to  Split Personality @1.2.2    2 months ago

I work for a University hospital in the school of medicine with the 3rd and 4th year students on their Internal Medicine rotations and schedule their inpatient assignments and conferences etc..  They are off all rotations until June and possibly July.

I am working from home for the same amount of time.  

I'm fortunate I am still working and able to get paid

 
 
 
Split Personality
1.2.6  Split Personality  replied to  Tessylo @1.2.5    2 months ago
I'm fortunate I am still working and able to get paid

You and me both, jrSmiley_79_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Split Personality
1.2.7  Split Personality  replied to  KDMichigan @1.2.3    2 months ago

I would consider it essential, especially from a security POV.

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
2  Ed-NavDoc    2 months ago

I equate computer modeling to be in the same category as political polls. Neither is usually accurate and results can be subjective depending on input from those doing the modeling or the polling. 

 
 
 
Tacos!
2.1  Tacos!  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @2    2 months ago

Hell, they can't even tell me if it's going to rain today.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
2.1.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Tacos! @2.1    2 months ago

How about Michael Levitt?

"Michael Levitt is a biophysicist at Stanford University and the 2013 winner of the Nobel Prize in chemistry.
Levitt told Chinese authorities  in the third week of February that the cases would peak at about 80,000, with about 3,250 deaths. On March 16, China reported 80,298 cases and 3,245 deaths.

Some additional cases have emerged, but the “confirmed cases” curve is essentially flat. Levitt got it right.

Levitt now thinks the U.S. curve is already flattening, so if we keep up “reasonable” social distancing and avoid large crowds, things will begin to improve soon, he says. While he warns, “What we need is to control the panic,” he adds, “We’re going to be fine.”

https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/489677-trumps-desire-to-reopen-the-country-by-easter-may-not-be-far-fetched


Talk about nailing it!

 

 
 
 
Tacos!
2.1.2  Tacos!  replied to  Vic Eldred @2.1.1    2 months ago

I doubt that America will ever be able to achieve the social distancing and high level quarantine results of China and South Korea. I don’t think it’s in us as a people. So, while our curve may flatten a bit, I see this going on for a while.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
2.1.3  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Tacos! @2.1.2    2 months ago
I doubt that America will ever be able to achieve the social distancing and high level quarantine results of China and South Korea.

The American public is fairly well scared. I'm ordering groceries from home. For 2 weeks my local Walmart hasn't had eggs, Pasta or toilet paper. There is no excuse for that kind of hoarding. The only people who need have extra are the older population who should remain quarantined. 

I see this going on for a while.

For the big cities, maybe.

 
 
 
Tacos!
2.1.4  Tacos!  replied to  Vic Eldred @2.1.3    2 months ago
Walmart hasn't had eggs

I saw this, too! The entire egg section at my market was empty. Then I saw some lady literally running for the cash register in triumphant glee with two dozen eggs in her hands. I'm like, WTF? What are you going to do with all those eggs? They don't keep forever and they don't disease or anything.

 
 
 
1stwarrior
2.1.5  1stwarrior  replied to  Vic Eldred @2.1.3    2 months ago

Went to Wally World this morning - no rice, pasta, medical gloves or brown eggs.  The white egg prices have gone up. 

Fella and his wife ahead of me in the check out had FOUR (4) baskets loaded to the brim with TWO (2) of each item (store's policy is max of two of each item).  All I could do was shake my head.  Three folks in the line on the right started talking LOUDLY about hoarders - and the fella and spouse didn't bat an eye.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
2.1.6  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Tacos! @2.1.4    2 months ago
WTF? What are you going to do with all those eggs?

Exactly my reaction!  We can thank the media.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
2.1.7  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  1stwarrior @2.1.5    2 months ago

I thought it would be a little better out your way. It's a national panic!

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
2.1.8  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  1stwarrior @2.1.5    2 months ago

Ironically, I went to my Wally World here on in Douglas on the AZ/Mexico border and found rice, eggs, pasta, and brown eggs, but zero gloves. While limits are in place, in my neck of the woods people from across the border are coming here with their extended families, each member buying up as much as they can, then taking it back into Mexico where it is sold for a considerable mark up. As the people individually are sticking to the limits, management cannot do anything, while U.S. citizens and legal residents get screwed!

 
 
 
Split Personality
2.1.9  Split Personality  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @2.1.8    2 months ago

I'm not sure why, but one of my ducks, presumably one of the immature ones, keeps laying eggs close to the water bowls, but I have not figured out which one.  The last couple of eggs were actually still hot.

If you have never had duck eggs, try them, the yolks are huge and they (naturally) have less white, but they are larger than most chicken eggs.  Supposed to be much better than chickens.

 
 
 
user image
2.1.10    replied to  Tacos! @2.1.4    2 months ago
The entire egg section at my market was empty. Then I saw some lady literally running for the cash register in triumphant glee with two dozen eggs in her hands. I'm like, WTF? What are you going to do with all those eggs? They don't keep forever and they don't disease or anything.

Do you know how many people are in her family? My son has four kids how long do you think two dozen eggs last his family?

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
2.1.11  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  Split Personality @2.1.9    2 months ago

I would not mind trying then. Unfortunately there is nowhere to get any that I know of around where I live here in the middle of the Sonora Desert. Possible that some of the local ranchers may have some.

 
 
 
Split Personality
2.1.12  Split Personality  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @2.1.11    2 months ago

Any farmers markets?

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
2.1.13  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  Split Personality @2.1.12    2 months ago

A seasonal one. I will have to check ot out.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3  Ozzwald    2 months ago
Models are models. We are -- there is enough data of the real experience with the coronavirus on the ground to really make these predictions much more sound. So when people start talking about 20% of a population getting infected, it's very scary, but we don't have data that matches that based on our experience.

They don't have the data because federal government failed miserably to provide enough tests to create the data.  And they are still failing in that area.

3f6082b6c7db8b9251354b1e3c78d261.gif

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
3.1  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Ozzwald @3    2 months ago

[deleted]

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.1.1  Ozzwald  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3.1    2 months ago
removed for context

Are you claiming that federal corona virus test kits are available for any doctor that needs a test?  Are you claiming that????  Or are you claiming that all doctors are left wing since they all want more and more test kits?  Please clarify your claim.

 
 
 
loki12
3.1.2  loki12  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3.1    2 months ago

removed for context

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
3.1.3  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Ozzwald @3.1.1    2 months ago

Don't ask stupid questions. What part of. the government is a miserable failure, do you not understand.

Do you really need someone to explain "Pigs in Shit" to you?

I though so!

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
3.1.4  Freedom Warrior  replied to  loki12 @3.1.2    2 months ago

I hereby apologize to all pigs.  We love you.  

I think I smell bacon downstairs.

 
 
 
Larry Hampton
3.1.5  Larry Hampton  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3.1.3    2 months ago

Lol any question too hard to answer is stupid huh?! 

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
3.1.6  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Larry Hampton @3.1.5    2 months ago

Don't tell me someone needs to be explained what constitutes a stupid question. 

That would be funny.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
3.1.7  Ozzwald  replied to  Freedom Warrior @3.1.3    2 months ago
Don't ask stupid questions.

Then start making clear statements.  Still waiting for you to clarify your claim.

 
 
 
Tessylo
3.1.8  Tessylo  replied to  Ozzwald @3.1.1    2 months ago

That's what the 'president' is claiming, not that it is true 

 
 
 
Freedom Warrior
3.2  Freedom Warrior  replied to  Ozzwald @3    2 months ago
They don't have the data because federal government failed miserably

As usual.  Yet we have people that want more and more of that misery.   AKA my opposition.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4  JohnRussell    2 months ago

I think it is entirely possible that the spread and serious consequences will be less, maybe a lot less, than some people have predicted. In fact I said in the beginning I thought it was being overblown. But the truth is they dont know yet. Cases in Chicago here have doubled in the past two days, no one knows if we are closer to the end then the beginning. Other cities are beginning to show "hot spots" as well.  Something like 80% of the American population lives in metropolitan areas, all of these people are potential victims. NYC metro area is  20,000,000 people, which is about 6% of the U.S. population.   If we multiply the current cases in NYC , which is something like 20,000 by 16  that would be 320,000 x.8  that would mean that when the rest of the country catches up with New York there should be about 256,000 cases in the US.  With a hospitalization rate of 20% that would mean a little over 50,000 people hospitalized from coronavirus, with 2560 of them dying.  

Of course this sort of projection is based on today, and the number are still going up. 

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
4.1  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  JohnRussell @4    2 months ago

One of the rare instances where I am in complete agreement with your assessment.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.1  JohnRussell  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @4.1    2 months ago

Without "social distancing" , etc, everyone in the US would get it, it would just be a question of when. We can know that because there would be nothing stopping it. It wouldnt exterminate the country of course because only 1 or 2 percent die.  But everyone would get it. And that would mean something like  2 million or so dead.  So, I think a BIG response to it has been the right thing to do, including 'shutting down' the economy for a couple months and borrowing against the future to pay for it.  If everyone would get on the same page we could get it over with sooner. 

 
 
 
Ozzwald
4.2  Ozzwald  replied to  JohnRussell @4    2 months ago
I think it is entirely possible that the spread and serious consequences will be less, maybe a lot less, than some people have predicted.

You may be entirely right.  However that depends on actions currently being taken, and future actions not yet taken.  If they "pack the churches" on Easter, it may be worse, if the rest of the states enact stay at home orders, we may be able to positively effect the results.

Trump directing/requesting all Governors to enact "stay at home" would be the best thing he could do for this country, at this point.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
4.3  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @4    2 months ago

IT will be interesting to see if the numbers start to flatten next week which will be a couple weeks after social distancing policies started to set in.  

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.3.1  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Sean Treacy @4.3    2 months ago

This coming Monday will be day 15 of the 15 day shutdown.....Ah, how fast it came!  We will get a new assessment on that day. An important briefing.

 
 
 
Tessylo
4.3.2  Tessylo  replied to  Sean Treacy @4.3    2 months ago

I don't think they're going to 'flatten' as early as next week.  That's delusional 

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
4.4  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @4    2 months ago
I think it is entirely possible that the spread and serious consequences will be less, maybe a lot less, than some people have predicted.

I think it could have been. We almost had it isolated in Washington state, but the back door was wide open. There was a travel ban placed on China, but flights were coming into and out of NYC from contaminated Europe as well as other locations. The City being a boiling caldron of humanity should have been isolated from the beginning. There are so many lessons coming from this.

 
 
 
Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom
4.5  Sister Mary Agnes Ample Bottom  replied to  JohnRussell @4    2 months ago
I think it is entirely possible that the spread and serious consequences will be less, maybe a lot less, than some people have predicted.

U.S. men less likely to heed health warnings as coronavirus death toll mounts: Reuters/Ipsos poll 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
4.6  Greg Jones  replied to  JohnRussell @4    2 months ago
I think it is entirely possible that the spread and serious consequences will be less, maybe a lot less, than some people have predicted. In fact I said in the beginning I thought it was being overblown.
I think that will turn out to be the case. I predict the curve will go flat right after Easter.

 
 
 
squiggy
5  squiggy    2 months ago

Another competent voice to offset the Cuomovirus theatrics of 'picking which 26,000 to cut off'.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
5.1  Ozzwald  replied to  squiggy @5    2 months ago

Another competent voice to offset the Cuomovirus theatrics of 'picking which 26,000 to cut off'.

Cuomo's statement was definitely dramatic, but that level of triage, without sufficient ventilators, may be the end result.

 
 
 
Jasper2529
5.1.1  Jasper2529  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1    2 months ago

He was given the opportunity in 2015 but didn't take it. You can find verification by searching Cuomo 2015 ventilators.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
5.1.2  Ozzwald  replied to  Jasper2529 @5.1.1    2 months ago
He was given the opportunity in 2015 but didn't take it.

So you're saying he should have ordered ventilators for a pandemic that would happen 5 years later?  That's your best argument!?!?!???

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
5.1.3  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.2    2 months ago
So you're saying he should have ordered ventilators for a pandemic that would happen 5 years later

Just like Trump should of known on the day he was elected that there would have been a pandemic 3 years later!/s

 
 
 
MUVA
5.1.4  MUVA  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.2    2 months ago

No they should have a plan to coordinate with the private sector in the time of need instead of waiting for pandemic to happen.I leased a dry dock from Metro machine to do sub contract work for BAE we had a plan if the pumps failed to have a pump on the dock or have one delivered in in under a hour in a emergency it’s called planning.

 
 
 
Snuffy
5.1.5  Snuffy  replied to  MUVA @5.1.4    2 months ago

There is a big difference though. You are talking about an emergency plan to have one pump on standby incase your pump fails on the dry dock. For the ventilators we're talking tens of thousands of units. A quick google search says that an ICU ventilator can run around $25,000 but let's say you can get a group discount so each unit is only $20,000.  For NYC along (they are talking about needing another 30,000 respirators) you get to a cost of $600,000,000 .  That's a lot of money sitting on the dock or in a warehouse.  And it's one thing to plan for potential failure of a working unit while you have the dry dock pumped out and another to do emergency planning for a pandemic.

 
 
 
Ozzwald
5.1.7  Ozzwald  replied to  MUVA @5.1.4    2 months ago
I leased a dry dock from Metro machine to do sub contract work for BAE we had a plan if the pumps failed to have a pump on the dock or have one delivered in in under a hour in a emergency it’s called planning.

Do I really need to point out the difference in having 1 backup device in case of emergency, and 30,000 devices? 

Why did you lease only one dry dock?  Shouldn't you have leased a dozen in case the first 11 didn't work out?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
5.1.8  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.6    2 months ago

They told him in January?  

Interesting because the first case in the US was on Jan 21st I believe and Trump put the travel ban into effect on Jan 31st. He was called a racist for it!!!

Well done Mr President

 
 
 
XDm9mm
5.1.9  XDm9mm  replied to  Vic Eldred @5.1.8    2 months ago
Interesting because the first case in the US was on Jan 21st I believe and Trump put the travel ban into effect on Jan 31st. He was called a racist for it!!!

Damn Vic...   How dare you use FACTS in your response?   Oh, just in case, I believe it was Biden that called Trump xenophobic for shutting down travel between China and America.

 
 
 
MUVA
5.1.10  MUVA  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.7    2 months ago

It is called planning they didn’t have a plan I can tell you have never run a business.

 
 
 
MUVA
5.1.11  MUVA  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.7    2 months ago

No because we only worked on one jet drive at a time but I had a plan and back up plan to float the dry dock if one of the pumps failed see I planned.See all they had to do is coordinate with manufacturers before the crisis not after the crisis started.

 
 
 
MUVA
5.1.12  MUVA  replied to  Snuffy @5.1.5    2 months ago

No I’m saying have a plan already in place for manufactures to make respirators or other equipment before  a crisis starts.

 
 
 
Jasper2529
5.1.13  Jasper2529  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.2    2 months ago
So you're saying he should have ordered ventilators for a pandemic that would happen 5 years later?

Of course not, unless Cuomo is also a psychic! What a silly question. There are numerous articles discussing Cuomo's 2015 major flub.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
5.1.14  Greg Jones  replied to  Ozzwald @5.1.6    2 months ago

Tell his what he should done, or done differently. Be specific.

 
 
 
Greg Jones
5.1.15  Greg Jones  replied to  MUVA @5.1.12    2 months ago

Obama should have done more. He had eight years to accomplish something.

 
 
 
Tessylo
5.1.16  Tessylo  replied to  MUVA @5.1.4    2 months ago

Exactly and if the 'president' hadn't disassembled the pandemic response team like he did in 2018, we would have been a whole lot better off now 

 
 
 
Tessylo
5.1.17  Tessylo  replied to  Greg Jones @5.1.15    2 months ago

President Obama did a lot by assembling the pandemic response team which the current 'president' went and disassembled back in 2018

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
5.2  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  squiggy @5    2 months ago

Right now Dr Birx is pleading with the media to stop frightening people:

"Please, for the reassurance of people across the world ... there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion right now"

“To make the implication that when they need a hospital bed, it's not going to be there, or when they need that ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have any evidence of that right now. It's our collective job to make sure that doesn't happen"

 
 
 
Split Personality
5.2.1  Split Personality  replied to  Vic Eldred @5.2    2 months ago

Yet the President took an unprecedented step of nationalizing GM.

Talk about mixed messages...

 
 
 
Jasper2529
5.2.2  Jasper2529  replied to  Vic Eldred @5.2    2 months ago
Right now Dr Birx is pleading with the media to stop frightening people:

MSM won't ... can't ... stop. Their life blood's foundation is the destruction of Trump's presidency and USA's constitutional and moral values.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
5.2.3  seeder  Vic Eldred  replied to  Jasper2529 @5.2.2    2 months ago

And everyone can see it. Let's continue to educate. Sometimes I feel like a DI making men out of boys, but we must not quit.

 
 
 
Tacos!
6  Tacos!    2 months ago

It’s nice to hear someone, for a change, say something positive and also acknowledge the importance of doing so.

 
 
 
JBB
7  JBB    2 months ago

The reason we are quarantined is to flatten the curve to avoid the doomsday scenarios and yet New York hospitals are dealing with the apocalyptical consequences of Trump's inept leadership..

 
 
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