╌>

Johns Hopkins: Dire analysis in CDC documents not meant for COVID-19 death forecasts

  
Via:  Just Jim NC TttH  •  4 years ago  •  22 comments

By:   Brett Samuels (MSN)

Johns Hopkins: Dire analysis in CDC documents not meant for COVID-19 death forecasts
Johns Hopkins University on Tuesday said analysis included in leaked government documents that showed the U.S. could see up to 3,000 deaths per day from coronavirus was not meant to be used for official forecasts.

Leave a comment to auto-join group We the People

We the People

Seems the information was meant NOT to be shared with the public at this point but rather a scenario meant only for FEMA to use for POSSIBLE things that MIGHT happen IF................


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



Johns Hopkins University on Tuesday said analysis included in leaked government documents that showed the U.S. could see up to 3,000 deaths per day from coronavirus was not meant to be used for official forecasts.

© Getty Johns Hopkins: Dire analysis in CDC documents not meant for COVID-19 death forecasts

The university said researchers at its school of public health produced the study for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to assist in planning for various scenarios as states begin loosening their restrictions intended to slow the spread of the virus.

"These preliminary results are not forecasts, and it is not accurate to present them as forecasts," the school of public health said in a statement.

"The information illustrates that there are some scenarios, including the premature relaxation of social distancing, that are likely to cause significant increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States."

The Johns Hopkins study was featured in documents from FEMA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that showed the U.S. reaching 200,000 new cases daily by June 1, with a daily death toll of roughly 3,000. Both figures would be a substantial increase over current daily averages.

The White House on Monday stressed that the study was not reviewed by its coronavirus task force, and on Tuesday administration officials made a concerted effort to dispute the projections.

"Those projections are without mitigation. We're doing a lot of mitigation," President Trump said as he boarded Air Force One for a trip to Arizona.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany chided the press for its reporting on the data included in the government documents, saying "the media should be more responsible in its reporting and give the full set of information to the American public."

"The Johns Hopkins' study being pushed around by the media as factual is based on faulty assumptions and is in no way representative of any federal government projections and, as Johns Hopkins stated, should not be taken as a forecast," she said in a statement.

Hours after the Johns Hopkins study was first reported, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, an influential model cited by government officials, recalibrated its projections on Monday afternoon to account for increasing mobility as restrictions are lifted. The model now projects nearly 135,000 deaths through the beginning of August, nearly double what it had been estimating as of Monday morning.

The two studies reflect the likelihood that the U.S. will see increasing case numbers and deaths from coronavirus as states begin gradually lifting restrictions and allowing certain businesses to reopen.

The U.S. has more than 1.1 million confirmed coronavirus cases, according to Johns Hopkins, and roughly 70,000 people in the country have died from the virus.

Read More


Tags

jrGroupDiscuss - desc
[]
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
1  seeder  Just Jim NC TttH    4 years ago

TRUMP IS OFF TOPIC..........

 
 
 
Texan1211
Professor Principal
2  Texan1211    4 years ago

Leave it to the media to hype something up to get folks worked up even more.

And sadly, the same folks worked up over it won't bother to read anything else about it if it dares to refute what most media outlets want them to believe.

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
2.1  seeder  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Texan1211 @2    4 years ago

But of course........................

 
 
 
squiggy
Junior Silent
3  squiggy    4 years ago

""The information illustrates that there are some scenarios..."

...which most nearly means dire, outlier, unmitigated free-fall - the shit the press is made for.

 
 
 
XXJefferson51
Senior Guide
3.1  XXJefferson51  replied to  squiggy @3    4 years ago

That is the lamestream media in today’s world.  Tools of the two parties, Chinese communist and democrat.  

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4  Split Personality    4 years ago

So we were not supposed to see the Chinese internal documents which means we ALL believe them,

but when we see USA internal documents we should remember that everything is FAKE NEWS unless

the new press secretary says so because there are mitigating circumstances.

The White House on Monday stressed that the study was not reviewed by its coronavirus task force, and on Tuesday administration officials made a concerted effort to dispute the projections. "Those projections are without mitigation. We're doing a lot of mitigation," President Trump said as he boarded Air Force One for a trip to Arizona.

Too funny given the the coronavirus task force is rumored to be disbanded soon, according to VP Pence.

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
4.1  seeder  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Split Personality @4    4 years ago
we see USA internal documents we should remember that everything is FAKE NEWS unless the new press secretary says so because there are mitigating circumstances.

Where in the holy hell did you pull that.............oh, never mind. This is Johns Hopkins saying they shouldn't use their scenarios for forecasting. Not the administration, capiche? The task force hadn't seen them or evaluated. Thus....................

The White House on Monday stressed that the study was not reviewed by its coronavirus task force,

And who in the hell believes China..................except the Chinese..................SMH

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.1.1  Split Personality  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4.1    4 years ago
Where in the holy hell did you pull that.............oh, never mind.

Your seed.

This is Johns Hopkins saying they shouldn't use their scenarios for forecasting.

No, it was included in FEMA material, also per the seed. 

Not the administration, capiche?

i s FEMA not part of the Administration and a major player in this effort?

The task force hadn't seen them or evaluated. Thus....................
The White House on Monday stressed that the study was not reviewed by its coronavirus task force,

I know, I cut and pasted that too.  It begs the question, what the fuck are they doing when not being paraded at the WH or on the cable news networks?

And who in the hell believes China..................except the Chinese..................SMH

I know, I apologize for confusing you by my attempt at sarcasm in my first sentence.

Cheers jrSmiley_2_smiley_image.png

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
4.1.2  seeder  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Split Personality @4.1.1    4 years ago
Where in the holy hell did you pull that.............oh, never mind.
Your seed. NO you didn't
This is Johns Hopkins saying they shouldn't use their scenarios for forecasting.

No, it was included in FEMA material, also per the seed. For FEMA exclusively 

Not the administration, capiche?

i s FEMA not part of the Administration and a major player in this effort? Yes but the information was not meant for public consumption Read between the lines.

The task force hadn't seen them or evaluated. Thus....................
The White House on Monday stressed that the study was not reviewed by its coronavirus task force,

I know, I cut and pasted that too.  It begs the question, what the fuck are they doing when not being paraded at the WH or on the cable news networks? They are listening. Why in hell do you think JH had to come out with the statement?

And who in the hell believes China..................except the Chinese..................SMH

I know, I apologize for confusing you by my attempt at sarcasm in my first sentence. Yeaaaah okay.

 
 
 
bugsy
Professor Participates
4.1.3  bugsy  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @4.1    4 years ago
except the Chinese

Well....and the US left...

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
4.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  Split Personality @4    4 years ago
but when we see USA internal documents

Gee, I wonder who would leak such frightening BS?

We do know why it was done - to scare states from opening up and to hurt the President!

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.2.1  Split Personality  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.2    4 years ago
We do know why it was done - to scare states from opening up and to hurt the President!

Really?  Because that's what the conspiracy theorists believe? 

Maybe it was just some patriot who thinks the country deserves to know, like Paul Revere.

I hear they are running out of beds in Boston.  Do you really think this thing is fake?

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
4.2.2  seeder  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  Split Personality @4.2.1    4 years ago
Maybe it was just some patriot who thinks the country deserves to know, like Paul Revere.

The article is about Johns Hopkins saying no one should sound the alarm to the public from their scenarios. It is there for planning by the agencies charged with response as a just in case. 

And no conspiracy theorists needed. It's right there.

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
4.2.3  Vic Eldred  replied to  Split Personality @4.2.1    4 years ago
I hear they are running out of beds in Boston.

You heard wrong.


Maybe it was just some patriot who thinks the country deserves to know, like Paul Revere.

The country made the choice in 2016. Any hate-filled POS who doesn't like it can go pound sand.


Do you really think this thing is fake?

What thing? The virus that some on the left love?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
4.2.4  JohnRussell  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.2.3    4 years ago

[DELETED]

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.2.6  Split Personality  replied to  Vic Eldred @4.2.3    4 years ago
You heard wrong

The Mayor and Governor on the news making stuff up ? News articles ?

.


The country made the choice in 2016

and no one saw this coming...2016 was a lifetime ago...but we are stuck with what we are stuck with.

Any hate-filled POS who doesn't like it can go pound sand.

Really irrelevant Anti American emotional outburst by you, don't you think? 

What thing? The virus that the left loves?

More Un-American conspiracy theories? A disproportionate amount of the dead are black Democrats.

No one loves this virus, shame on you for even hinting that there is a partisan issue with the disease.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
4.2.7  Split Personality  replied to    4 years ago

I saw it last night on Fox or CNN.

You are capable of looking it up yourself, aren't you?

Just asking for a friend...

 
 
 
JohnRussell
Professor Principal
5  JohnRussell    4 years ago
White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany chided the press for its reporting on the data included in the government documents, saying "the media should be more responsible in its reporting and give the full set of information to the American public." "The Johns Hopkins' study being pushed around by the media as factual is based on faulty assumptions and is in no way representative of any federal government projections and, as Johns Hopkins stated,should not be taken as a forecast," she said in a statement.

Now we know it's true, the official white house liar said it isnt. 

 
 
 
Just Jim NC TttH
Professor Principal
5.1  seeder  Just Jim NC TttH  replied to  JohnRussell @5    4 years ago

As John's Hopkins stated. PERIOD. That's borderline against post 1 as everyone knows how you feel. You're at the edge Mr. Russell.

 
 
 
Split Personality
Professor Guide
5.1.1  Split Personality  replied to  Just Jim NC TttH @5.1    4 years ago
As John's Hopkins stated. PERIOD.

They stated that they developed the model for FEMA. Period.

The university said researchers at its school of public health produced the study for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to assist in planning for various scenarios as states begin loosening their restrictions intended to slow the spread of the virus.

Can't be much more official than that JJ.

Face it, they are in a  difficult position, and the "Task Force" should be aware of EVERYTHING that FEMA had to offer.  No?

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
Professor Principal
6  Vic Eldred    4 years ago

 The Post quotes the man who created the model, Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, as minimizing its importance:

“‘I had no role in the process by which that was presented and shown,’ said Lessler, who added that the data was presented as an ‘FYI’ of work still in progress to officials within the Federal Emergency Management Agency. ‘It was not in any way intended to be a forecast.’” He said the projected death toll was possible but depends on decisions being made today.


 
 

Who is online


Igknorantzruls
JohnRussell


97 visitors