You remember Brexit? The Brits certainly do!

Back in the day, I posted the drama of Brexit, a monstrous hoax practiced on a fully complicit bunch of foolish Brits. The arguments for Brexit were full of nonsense. The arguments against Brexit were full on facts. So, of course, the Brits voted "FOR".

In all logic, by now the Brits should be realizing that they fucked up royally. Yup...

Brexit causes collapse in European research funding for Oxbridge

One of the UK’s most prestigious universities has seen its funding from a large European research programme plummet from £62m a year to nothing since Brexit, new figures show.

Cambridge University has seen its post-Brexit funding from EU research grants plummet in the past two years.
Nicholas T Ansell/PA

The   latest statistics   from the European Commission reveal that Cambridge University, which netted €483m (£433m) over the seven years of the last European research funding programme,   Horizon 2020 , has not received any funding in the first two years of the new   Horizon Europe   programme.

Meanwhile, Oxford, which won €523m from the earlier programme, has only been awarded €2m to date from Horizon Europe.

Britain’s associate membership of the €95.5bn Horizon Europe programme was agreed in principle as part of the   Brexit   trade deal negotiations in 2020, but ratification was disrupted after the UK failed to implement the Northern Ireland protocol. Such funding is vital to UK universities because it enables research collaborations with institutions across Europe and carries considerable international prestige.

“For higher education and research, there are no new opportunities and no actual possible upsides from Brexit,” said Simon Marginson, professor of higher education at Oxford.

He described Brexit as a “historic error of monumental proportions” and said the new data on Oxford and Cambridge – usually the top performers in Europe – was “very worrying”. The losses reached beyond money, he added, with the UK also becoming less attractive to high-quality European researchers and students.

The government has guaranteed it will cover all successful Horizon Europe grants applied for by the end of March, but after watching the political wranglings for more than two years, many academics are now leaving the UK, saying they no longer believe their vital European research partnerships will be protected.

In August last year, Professor Augusta McMahon, an archaeologist specialising in the Middle East, left Cambridge University, where she had worked for 26 years, to return to Chicago University. Although she was wooed to the US by what she calls “the best job in my field”, she says Brexit uncertainty was a big factor. “I no longer thought the government would either associate [with Horizon Europe] or provide replacement funding,” she said.

With the number of EU students coming to UK universities   more than halving since Brexit , she was noticing their decline on campus. Meanwhile, she said fewer European lecturers were applying for jobs here.

Professor Paul Pharoah, who researches the genetic epidemiology of ovarian and breast cancer, left Cambridge after 26 years at the end of last year and now works at Cedars Sinai hospital in Los Angeles.

Pharoah, who was involved in two large EU-funded research projects in the past 15 years, said it was becoming much harder to find funding for his field in the UK: “And the lack of opportunity to apply for EU funding made the outlook even more bleak.”

Gáspár Jékely, a German professor of neuroscience who was based at Exeter University, started work at Heidelberg University last week. He has taken his high-cachet European   Research   Council (ERC) advanced grant with him.

“The lack of security around European collaborations and funding was one of my reasons for going,” he said. “Recruiting researchers and post-docs from Europe was becoming increasingly hard.” He added: “A colleague of mine at Exeter has just won a prestigious ERC grant, but we don’t know what will happen with it. No one wants to lose a €3m award.”

Last April, the ERC gave 150 grant winners in the UK two months to decide whether to move with their grant to a European institution or lose the funding. In the end, UK Research and Innovation, the government research funding organisation, matched the funding of those who stayed, but one in eight left the UK.

Vassiliki Papatsiba, an education expert at Cardiff University who has researched the impact of Brexit on universities, said the UK might continue to lose talented researchers this way. “Nearly 50% of ERC UK-based grant winners are nationals of a different country, so that would predispose them to outward mobility,” she said.

Sunak ‘risks full-scale trade war’ with Brussels by scrapping EU laws

Leading European politicians have warned that the prime minister’s plan to ditch EU legislation will trigger retaliatory countermeasures, including imposing tariffs on goods

Rishi Sunak’s plan to   scrap thousands of EU laws   by the end of this year risks triggering a full-scale trade war between the UK and Brussels, senior figures in the European Union have warned.

Rishi Sunak leaves Downing Street for prime minister’s questions last week.
Tejas Sandhu/SOPA Images/REX/Shutterstock

Letters from leading EU politicians, seen by the   Observer,   reveal deep concern that the UK is about to lower standards in areas such as   environmental protection   and   workers’ rights   – breaching “level playing field” provisions that were at the heart of the post-Brexit trade and cooperation agreement (TCA).

In retaliation, EU leaders in the   European Commission , the European parliament and the council of ministers are preparing what they call their own “unilateral rebalancing measures” in secret meetings in Brussels. Sources say these are certain to include the option of imposing tariffs on UK goods entering the EU single market.

The dispute, caused by the Sunak government’s determination to scrap thousands of EU laws in order to demonstrate that he is “getting Brexit done”, now risks souring EU-UK relations just when   progress appeared to be being made   on the thorny problem of the Northern Ireland protocol.

The prospect of a trade war with the EU comes amid growing evidence that Brexit is inflicting serious damage on the UK economy. Last week the International Money Fund (IMF) said it expected Britain to   grow at a slower rate   than any other of the G7 leading industrialised countries, including Russia, which is being economically drained by its war with Ukraine.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said labour shortages and other “continuing challenges from Brexit” were among the factors causing the UK’s sluggish performance. The most recent   post-Brexit poll of polls   shows that 58% of UK voters are now in favour of rejoining the EU – the highest level since the 2016 referendum – with just 42% wanting to remain outside the bloc.

Under the TCA, the UK agreed to maintain high standards on labour and social protection, the environment, climate and other areas in order to ensure fair conditions for UK-EU trade, in return for the EU agreeing to tariff-free access to the single market for British manufactured goods.

But now Sunak’s attempt to show the UK is “taking back control” by axing much of EU retained law within the next 10 months risks triggering another Brexit-related economic crisis.

The warnings of retaliatory moves by the EU have been issued by two senior figures involved in the planned European response: France’s ex-Europe minister Nathalie Loiseau, who co-chairs the joint EU-UK parliamentary forum set up under the TAC, and David McAllister, the German MEP who chairs the European parliament’s foreign affairs committee.

Speaking to the   Observer ,   Michel Barnier , the EU’s former chief negotiator, also issued a warning to Sunak over the move. “There is a sensitivity in the next few months about the risk of dumping against the EU – what we call a level playing field,” he said. “It is a point linked to the new law of Mr Sunak concerning so many EU regulations that he wants to get rid of. It’s a choice. He is free to do that, but I just recommend to be careful.”

In a letter to Labour MP   Stella Creasy , chair of the Labour Movement for Europe, Loiseau said the EU was “really concerned” about the effects of the   retained EU law bill , which will have its second reading in the House of Lordson Monday.

She told Creasy: “The European Commission is closely following the situation and is making sure to be ready for any additional controls that would be needed to protect the EU single market starting from 1 January 2024.”

She also warned of further damage to EU-UK relations at a crucial period. “At a time when we are seeing a more constructive and collaborative spirit between the EU and the UK, the passage of this bill in its current form could risk progress being made in other areas of the relationship,” she said.

Also responding to inquiries from Creasy about the EU’s attitude to the bill, McAllister made clear that options for the strongest retaliation were being prepared: “Our agreements contain mechanisms to ensure non-regression from the current high levels of protection in labour and social standards, environment and climate, as well as rules on subsidies, and the possibility to apply unilateral rebalancing measures.

“The European parliament and the council, as co-legislators, will soon adopt a regulation laying down rules and procedures to ensure an effective and timely exercise of the European Union’s rights in enforcing and implementing the withdrawal agreement and the trade and cooperation agreement.” He added that the “[European] commission is preparing an assessment, which will be presented shortly to the members of the European parliament. Due to the sensitivity of the topic, this meeting will be held in camera.”

Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform thinktank, said the worries in Brussels were real and ran deep. “The EU is getting seriously concerned about the impact of the retained EU law bill on the level playing field. It fears that if the UK abandons high social and environmental standards, its companies will have an unfair advantage over EU firms.

“The trade and cooperation agreement allows the EU to take countermeasures against the UK for breaches of the level playing field – for example, by removing zero-tariff access to the European market.

“The commission is not saying much about this at the moment, as everyone is focused on sorting out the NI [Northern Ireland] protocol. But if and when a deal is done on the protocol, the arguments will start on the REUL [retained EU law] bill. Some MEPs are already talking of a trade war.”

Creasy said: “When we left the EU, the government claimed we could have higher standards. Now it is increasingly clear they plan to rip up thousands of workers’ rights, environmental laws and consumer protections, and in doing so start a trade war with Europe at the same time.”

The TUC warned recently that the retained EU law bill could mean essential rights being removed or watered down without proper parliamentary scrutiny, sparking a damaging trade dispute with Brussels. It said workers’ rights that were at risk included holiday pay, equal pay for women, parental leave and equal treatment for part-time workers.

A government spokesperson said: “The Retained EU Law bill will enable us to amend or remove burdensome retained EU law and ensure we can create the best regulatory environment in the UK to drive economic growth, boost innovation and develop a competitive advantage in future technology.

“This is not about watering down standards, such as our strong record on workers’ rights, maternity rights, or environmental protection, as we have raised our domestic standards over recent years to make them some of the highest in the world.

“We remain committed to upholding our international obligations, including the Withdrawal Agreement and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, and will take the action necessary to safeguard these within UK domestic law.”

Three years on from Brexit, all UK voters are left with is a bitter taste of Bregret

Most people are now in favour of rejoining the EU, but Labour is right to steer clear of another row over Europe

‘Eurostar deliberately leaves a third of seats empty due to crippling border delays.’
Henry Nicholls/Reuters

Today’s Brexit anniversary marks three years of political mayhem and economic calamity. It is also 50 years since Britain joined the EEC. Ten years ago this month, David Cameron made his shameless Bloomberg speech pledging a referendum to placate his party and Ukippers, who he had previously called “ fruitcakes ”, “loonies” and “closet racists”.

Cameron wrongly thought Brexiteers could be appeased, but they proved insatiable. The more harm their   Brexit   does, the more extreme versions they demand, chasing those impossible phantasms they mis-sold to the country.

“Remoaner” was a clever Brexit epithet for the 48% of us who voted remain. The heartbreak of this act of national self-harm left remainers keening in grief, in a long moan for the loss of an ideal, along with certain economic decline. The ache, too, was over the broken old Labour alliances of interest and belief, cities against towns, old against young, those with qualifications against those with few. With the sorrow there was rage, white-hot and vengeful, against cynical Brexit leaders who knowingly sold snake oil and fairy dust.

Grief ebbs when looking to what comes next. David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, last week promised there would be a civilised friendship with Europe under a Labour government. There was talk of reconnecting “a tarnished UK” with its closest allies, “for security and prosperity”; “reducing friction” on trade; unblocking the   Horizon scheme ;   strengthening student links   and pledging a “clean power alliance”.

But there is to be no rejoining, no way back to the customs union or single market, Labour says, so as to deny Tory strategists what they yearn for: a re-run of Brexit at the next general election to distract from the economy, the cost of living crisis and collapsed public services. Distressed Labour rejoiners point to how many leavers are now Bregretters. With this rapid shift still ongoing, the pollster John Curtice says that 57% of people are   in favour of rejoining , with just 43% for staying out, while   49%   think Brexit weakens the economy.

Remainer grief eases at signs of a country reuniting against the liars who pulled off this trick. But it’s rash to imagine that even a 14-point lead means a pro-EU referendum would be won: we know what referendums do. Besides, egocentric Britain forgets that Brussels, with a war on its doorstep and its own economic woes, might shun yet more negotiations with the UK. Let’s not forget the MEPs and envoys we insulted them with, the spite and mendacity spread by the likes of Nigel Farage and Daniel Hannan in the European parliament or David Frost across the negotiating table.

There is some cheer: these polls cause such alarm to the Brexit mis-leaders that they are the moaners now – the Bremoaners. Hannan, the ex-MEP and arch-purveyor of Brexit fabrications, is trying to scare defecting Brexit voters back. “There really does seem to be a plot to overturn Brexit,” he warns Telegraph readers. He uses Lammy’s speech as evidence, plus Labour’s resistance to the EU deregulation law. “There is little doubt the Europhile blob is giving it a go,” he writes, “to hold Britain within the EU’s regulatory orbit pending an attempt at re-entry.”

He also   warns : “For their plan to have the slightest chance of success, they need to convince the country that Brexit has been an economic disaster.” But that ship has long sailed. Look what Brexit has done: a   4% shrinkage   in long-run productivity relative to remaining in the EU, expects the Office for Budget Responsibility, inflation is higher than in the EU, trade has fallen by   almost a fifth , while the government itself says the much-trumpeted Australian deal will raise GDP by   less than 0.1% a year   by 2035. Brexit has   raised food prices by 6%   says the LSE, while draining the workforce. Eurostar also deliberately leaves   a third of seats empty   due to crippling EU/UK border delays.

The Brexit press can’t hide these inconvenient truths. Jeremy Warner, the Telegraph’s associate editor, challenges Jeremy Hunt’s bizarrely Pollyanna-ish assessment of the economy, writing “trade with our European neighbours is faltering badly,” due to Brexit, with “the rather awkward fact that the UK is the only G7 economy yet to recover to its pre-pandemic size”. “The grim reality is that the country seems to be falling apart on almost every front” and “car production has fallen to its lowest since the 1950s”.

All that is why Prof Matthew Goodwin says that “ Bregret is taking hold in Britain ” with only one in five thinking   it’s going well . Brexiters are now the minority, Bremoaning like hell because no amount of Brexit boosterism will bring back those lost supporters who know exactly whom to blame. Few will agree that their pet project has failed because it wasn’t “hard Brexit” enough. Eventually extreme Brexiters will subside back into their irrelevant coterie of cultists, unforgiven and moaning all the way.

• Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist