The Last Hope for Venezuela Is Also a Frightening One
https://newrepublic.com/article/144160/last-hope-venezuela-also-frightening-one
Thinking back to Hugo Chávez’s glory years, it’s amazing how severely the revolutionary sheen of Chavismo has been dulled. His movement, after all, once had the star power to attract left-wing celebrities from Sean Penn to Naomi Campbell, and was seen as a model throughout the region. These days, no Latin American politician in his right mind would dream of citing Venezuela as anything but a cautionary tale. Chavismo has become a toxic brand, a slur that center-right politicos use to try to discredit left-wing challengers. In Venezuela, too, the old talk of remaking the world order and challenging U.S. imperialism has given way to a much darker vision—an obsession with domestic enemies (“the fascists,” as the opposition is known) and the CIA, which is blamed for any and every problem.
The economy has fallen into a terrifying tailspin, with three out of four Venezuelans losing body weight to hunger because food is so hard to find. Since 2013, GDP has contracted 40 percent in per capita terms. In a grim parlor game, Venezuelan economists have taken to identifying countries that performed better in war than Chavismo has in peace. (Neither Iran nor Iraq saw the kind of economic cataclysm we’ve witnessed, even as they gunned down tens of thousands of one another’s young people in the 1980s. El Salvador in the ’80s and Ukraine in the last few years are just a couple of the countries who’ve fared better in war than we have in peace.)
A member of the national guard fires his shotgun at opposition demonstrators during clashes in Caracas on July 28, 2017.CARLOS BECERRA/AFP/Getty Images
Amid the hunger, Maduro’s grotesque Constituyente, all 545 handpicked members, will convene as soon as Thursday. Its task is simple: clear the obstacles in the way of a Cuban-style dictatorship in Venezuela. The first order of business will be to clean house: It will likely dissolve the National Assembly, the Venezuelan legislature where the opposition won a two-thirds majority in a 2015 landslide, which now seems likely to be remembered as the last free elections in Venezuela for a good long time. Next up: the prosecutor general, a once-reliable Chavista whose ideological doubts have turned into outright dissent in recent weeks. After that, opposition politicians likely will be jailed. (Indeed, two prominent leaders were taken from their homes by security forces on Tuesday.) Then, there will be new election rules to guarantee a permanent Chavista government in a country that has come to despise Chavismo.
The question now is whether the military will stay loyal as the Constituyente follows through on its plans. The top brass has long been at pains to stress its complete loyalty to the government, but rumblings of discontent are just about audible in the ranks. As chaotic street protests continue to rock the country, the soldiers know it’s up to them to crack the skulls that need to be cracked to re-establish order. It’s unclear how long they’re willing to keep doing that.
The Trump administration reportedly is considering drastic sanctions against the Venezuelan oil industry in response to the Constituyente. In a country that gets 95 percent of its export earnings from oil, the implications are frightening. Fewer oil dollars mean even less food and medicine will be imported. Sanctions hold out the threat of an even greater humanitarian crisis, more social conflict, and more rioting.
And yet, for a society that’s already tried everything to get rid of its dictatorship and failed, some hope that just maybe oil-sector sanctions pushes someone within the military to make a move against the regime.
Is this a good idea? Far from it. Involving the men with guns into political decision-making is a counsel of despair.
Is it even safe? Hell no. It’s easy to imagine scenarios where different units square off against one another and Venezuela gradually morphs into Syria.
That some have come to see the military as our last hope is just a measure of how desperate the situation has become. Because if there’s one thing that’s not in short supply in Venezuela these days, it’s desperation.
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Chavismo has become a toxic brand, a slur that center-right politicos use to try to discredit left-wing challengers. In Venezuela, too, the old talk of remaking the world order and challenging U.S. imperialism has given way to a much darker vision—an obsession with domestic enemies (“the fascists,” as the opposition is known) and the CIA, which is blamed for any and every problem
The scary part is I still hear the odd person from time to time hold up Venezuela as a shining example of what a government should be. I find it truly horrifying that there are still a few hold outs who haven't gotten the slightest clue about what's going on in that place. I don't know why the US would do any business with a country that stole our businesses property on basically a whim. We should have cut all business and political times with them at that point. But it didn't stop there. They actively sought to harm the US economically so we definitely should have cut all economic ties with them then. Now we're still talking about it?
While I may feel badly for the citizens of that hole, They brought it on themselves. They sold themselves to a lie.
Those countries dont have the base for good government that we have, our constitution and stable branches of government that check and balance.
This stuff happens from time to time around the world. It is the way of the world, you might say.
In a country that gets 95 percent of its export earnings from oil, the implications are frightening.
Its probably worse, as they already spent the cash on those "cash for oil" deals and are struggling to ship the product .
There don't seem to be any positive outcomes for Venezuela in the near or even long term.