Why Did the Islamic State Claim the Las Vegas Shooting?
This morning, the Islamic State’s semi-official news agency, Amaq, took credit for the Las Vegas massacre, which killed 58 and wounded another 515. The likely killer, identified by police as 64-year-old Stephen Paddock of Mesquite, Nevada, was not known to be a supporter of the Islamic State, or indeed a Muslim of any type. For now, the only evidence that the Islamic State was involved is its own assurance—first a press release announcing that a “soldier of the Islamic State” executed the concertgoers, and a follow-up for the baffled, explaining that he converted to Islam months ago. The FBI has stated that it doesn’t believe the attack was related to international terrorism.
The sun has barely risen on Las Vegas, and there may be blood still slick on the Strip. Speculation about mass shootings in the hours after they occur is not just a fool’s game but an impatient fool’s. Evidence will be forthcoming, and these assertions by the Islamic State will be tested against reality. But already I hear a familiar chorus of doubt: The Islamic State will “take credit for anything,” it says, “even hurricanes.”
The doubters do not have a preponderance of prior examples on their side. The Islamic State does not claim natural disasters. Its supporters rejoice in them, but they reserve their official media for intentional acts. Of course, insurance agents and Christians , too, sometimes consider the weather “an act of God.”
The vast majority of the Islamic State’s claimed attacks were undertaken by men acting in its name, often after leaving short video statements confirming their intentions. The Amaq news agency is the preferred venue for the initial claim, usually within a day. (Sloppy reporters sometimes mistake the rejoicing of online supporters, meteorological or not, for an official claim.) If they were really so promiscuous with their claims, we would long since have ignored them, as we do claims from other yahoos who have tried to take credit for atrocities authored by others. The idea that the Islamic State simply scans the news in search of mass killings, then sends out press releases in hope of stealing glory, is false. Amaq may learn details of the attacks from mainstream media—and often gets those details wrong, also like mainstream media—but its claim of credit typically flows from an Amaq-specific source.
This Las Vegas claim may yet turn out to be false as well. They have offered no evidence—no cell-phone video from the killer, pledging allegiance in broken Arabic; no selfies of him, raising a finger of monotheism. Another absent sign of Islamic State involvement is videos from Paddock’s rifle-scope. At attacks like the Holey Bakery in Dhaka, Bangladesh, the killers have uploaded real-time images, exclusive and corroborating imagery for Amaq. As with many subsequently verified attacks, we have not yet, in these early hours, seen any such evidence.
If their claim is a rare false one, it will not even be the first false claim to feature a casino. In June, a gambling addict shot up and torched the Resorts World casino in Manila, Philippines. The Islamic State claimed credit, with a dubious follow-up alleging that Jessie Javier Carlos, 42, converted to Islam some months before, without telling anyone. That explanation appears to be a total lie. A false claim of credit in Las Vegas will effectively shred the Islamic State’s news agency’s credibility. It will become a news agency that was once reliable, and now associates itself indiscriminately with heavily armed crazy people in casinos.
I see little advantage in such a shift. When Amaq claims an attack, it makes itself hostage to the facts that are revealed in the follow-up investigation. Its supporters are cautiously cheering Paddock, but even they will be chagrined if (for example) a manifesto comes out revealing that Paddock was not a jihadist but a psychopathic Christian, or if it is revealed that his sniper’s nest was littered with titty mags and the rum bottles from the minibar. According to reports , Paddock had recently gambled heavily. Gambling ranks with drinking among Islamic vices. He also appears to have killed himself, rather than waiting to be gunned down in typical Islamic State style.
The on-camera pledges of allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi that have accompanied other ISIS claims of responsibility have the effect of wiping clean the history of the attackers—and preserving the credibility and reputation of the Islamic State. Porn and drinking can then be excused as habits of the past, even if the past was just last week. Having a clean perp, reborn as a soldier of the caliphate, makes the Amaq claim of credit safe, and unlikely to require regret later. As the facts emerge, we’ll see whether this killing spree ends up reminding us to take Amaq seriously, or demonstrating that its standards have slipped beyond recovery.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/10/isis-amaq-las-vegas/541746/
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I see little advantage in such a shift. When Amaq claims an attack, it makes itself hostage to the facts that are revealed in the follow-up investigation. Its supporters are cautiously cheering Paddock, but even they will be chagrined if (for example) a manifesto comes out revealing that Paddock was not a jihadist but a psychopathic Christian, or if it is revealed that his sniper’s nest was littered with titty mags and the rum bottles from the minibar. According to reports , Paddock had recently gambled heavily. Gambling ranks with drinking among Islamic vices. He also appears to have killed himself, rather than waiting to be gunned down in typical Islamic State style.
The on-camera pledges of allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi that have accompanied other ISIS claims of responsibility have the effect of wiping clean the history of the attackers—and preserving the credibility and reputation of the Islamic State. Porn and drinking can then be excused as habits of the past, even if the past was just last week. Having a clean perp, reborn as a soldier of the caliphate, makes the Amaq claim of credit safe, and unlikely to require regret later. As the facts emerge, we’ll see whether this killing spree ends up reminding us to take Amaq seriously, or demonstrating that its standards have slipped beyond recovery.
The bigger question is why are people actually believing that the claim
Just looking for answers, as most of us are. I will keep updating this as more information becomes available.
Has there been any update on this exceedingly odd clip since it started making the rounds online last night? I can’t find any police statements about it even though it seems like an astounding coincidence that some woman was warning concertgoers they were all going to die less than an hour before the worst mass shooting in American history.
The first, presumptive explanation in a case like this is “hoax,” but I don’t get a hoax vibe from the clip. The eyewitness’s full name is out there; she doesn’t seem drunk, and at one point momentarily appears to be on the verge of tears. She was apparently at the concert with her mom, not with a group of friends whom she might have been inclined to “impress” by making something up to get on TV.
it was reported security did not remove a woman as claimed. Has anyone else reported the same thing as the woman in the video?
Stranger things have happened. Even if she just had a premonition... weird thought and quite the twist though. I hadn't heard anything about this till just now. weird if true !!
Weird or connected though......? interesting
There were some reports of her right away, I checked today for more information and only found that. It is intriguing, to say the least.
Las Vegas shooter Stephen Paddock wired $100,000 to an account in his live-in girlfriend’s home country, the Philippines, in the week before he unleashed the worst mass shooting in modern U.S. history , according to multiple senior law enforcement officials.
But while officials have confirmed that Marilou Danley was in the Philippines on Sunday when Paddock opened fire on a crowd attending a country music festival on the Las Vegas Strip , it was not known whether the money was for her or her family or for another purpose.
Danley, 62, who had traveled to Hong Kong on Sept. 25, could fill in some of the blanks when she returns to the United States on Wednesday, the officials said. Her arrival airport was not known.
LAS VEGAS — Authorities in Las Vegas said Tuesday that the gunman who killed least 59 people at a country music festival “extensively” planned the massacre, placing cameras in his suite and the nearby hallway so he could see when police officers were closing in.
“It was pre-planned, extensively, and I’m pretty sure that he evaluated everything that he did in his actions, which is troublesome,”
No, shit that is quite a bit of prep work for someone with no military training, formal or otherwise, or even an extensive history with firearms. Did he learn all of this watching Jason Bourne movies? These don't seem to be skill sets, common across the Amerian demographic. I read he had a high IQ, so it is possible he learned how to do this on his own
Joseph Lombardo, the sheriff of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, said at a briefing Tuesday afternoon.
Lombardo said one of the cameras was hidden in a food service cart in the hallway outside the suite on the 32nd floor .
Where was the camera in his room focused? On the crowd he was shooting at? At himself as he shot into the crowd? A rather important consideration in my opinion.
Law enforcement officials said the purpose of that camera was apparently to give the gunman a video feed that would warn him when police were closing in.
Lombardo also said the department has opened an investigation into the unauthorized release of images that show the crime scene, including the bullet-riddled door to the suite used by the gunman, Stephen Paddock. Police said Paddock fired at hotel security before taking his own life
He apparently had set up a security perimeter behind him while firing round after round into the crowd below – another indication of the level of preparation Paddock put into the attack. Such a setup would have made it easier for Paddock to know when he was close to being confronted by law enforcement.
Danley, Paddock’s 62-year-old girlfriend, was found outside the country — as of Monday afternoon, in Tokyo — and was not involved in the shooting.
Yet in the update from NBC, he wired money to the Philippines.
What's with him sending money to the Philippines? That is strange, I think. $100,000 is a nice piece of change. That is why the money was transferred so she would have funds after this.
There is no way this woman did not know what was going down. She was living with him and he was amassing an arsenal. Wouldn't you say.....why all the weapons? Well, honey, now is a good time for you to take a trip! She is guilty. Complacency ain't gonna cut it.
Before she appears on TV, however, she needs to get her roots touched up!!!!
That is a fortune in the Philippines. What I don't understand is, they know where, and to who the money was sent already. When you wire that much cash there is a record of it that is easy to trace. They knew as soon as they discovered the transaction, all the details of who received it. As it is all in computer records.
I would also like to know more about the other woman's claims about someone telling her there was going to be a mass killing. Why have not reporters been hounding her for details? Unless she is in protective custody being interviewed by the FBI and reporters don't have access.
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