Obama Returns to the Campaign Trail
WASHINGTON — In his first public campaign appearances since leaving office, Barack Obama today stumps for two Democratic gubernatorial candidates: Phil Murphy in New Jersey and Ralph Northam in Virginia.
And it will be interesting to see which issues Obama raises — health care (probably), Iran (probably not), Gold Star families (unlikely) — because whatever he says will probably get attention from the current Oval Office occupant.
As the New York Times writes , Obama’s trips today to Newark and Richmond are about firing up African-American voters. “Mr. Obama’s appearances on behalf of Virginia’s lieutenant governor, Ralph S. Northam, in Richmond and the financier Philip D. Murphy in Newark — two white candidates in predominantly black cities — come as Democrats struggle to inspire African-Americans to vote this year. While Mr. Murphy appears comfortably in the lead in New Jersey, the race in Virginia is close.”
Obama’s event in New Jersey begins at 3:30 pm ET (with him taking the stage after that), while the Virginia campaign stop begins at 7:30 pm ET (with Obama likely hitting the stage in the 8:00 pm ET hour).
In Virginia, Democrats enjoy nearly every advantage
Beyond the polls, there are several reasons why Democrat Ralph Northam is the favorite in the November 7 gubernatorial race in Virginia:
- Trump: The current president’s job-approval rating in the state is in the 30s, and remember that Trump lost this state to Hillary Clinton by 5 points on his best day of the general election.
- History: With just one exception (in 2013 when Terry McAuliffe defeated Ken Cuccinelli), the party that controls the White House has lost every gubernatorial election in Virginia going back to the 1970s.
- GOP’s poor performance in Virginia: Since 2005, Democrats are 9-1 in major statewide elections in Virginia (for president, Senate, governor).
- Cash: Northam is outraising Republican opponent Ed Gillespie, which is stunning given Gillespie’s background as a former RNC chair and lobbyist.
- The advertising war: And Northam is also outspending Gillespie on the TV airwaves, while party spending is about even (see below for more on that).
But Gillespie does have one important advantage in this race, and if he pulls off the upset, it will be the reason why: Democrats in Virginia don’t turn out as well in non-presidential years.
Going back to 2006, exit polls show that Democrats have enjoyed, on average, a nearly 7-point advantage in party ID in presidential years, while party ID has been close to even in non-presidential elections:
- 2006: R+3
- 2008: D+6
- 2009: R+4
- 2012: D+7
- 2013: D+5
- 2014: Even
- 2016: D+7
And what explains the big difference in the recent polls of Virginia’s gubernatorial race? Party ID, of course. The Monmouth poll that had Gillespie up, 48 percent to 47 percent, had an R+2 sample. The Quinnipiac poll that had Northam up 14 points, 53 percent to 39 percent, was D+10. And last night’s Fox poll that had Northam ahead by 7 points was D+3.
The good news for Democrats is that turnout in the June primaries certainly suggested that Democrats were more motivated than Republicans – more than 540,000 voters participated in the Dem primary, versus 365,000 in the GOP race.
If turnout is close to that on November 7, then Democrats will win up and down the ballot. But if it resembles what it was in 2006, 2009, or 2014, then Gillespie is in position to pull off the upset.
Trump disavows bipartisan deal to fix Obamacare
Yesterday, we asked whether Trump and the GOP would take the bipartisan deal to fix Obamacare. Well, the answer – right now – appears to be a no.
NBC's Benjy Sarlin : “President Donald Trump disavowed a bipartisan health care agreement on Wednesday, delivering it a likely fatal blow only a day after he praised its approach and said he had personally encouraged its negotiation… It was a confusing shift from Tuesday when Trump, while criticizing the CSR payments, praised the emerging agreement as a "short-term deal" that would calm insurance markets until Republicans could pass a full Obamacare replacement later on.”
Our take: Much like with the DACA program, it’s hard to see how the GOP-controlled Congress passes any health-care deal unless the Trump White House is 100 percent behind it. And it’s clear that Trump isn’t 100 percent behind this at all.
Full article:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/obama-returns-campaign-trail-n812206
Tags
Who is online
47 visitors
I am not ready to concede that this is already a moot issue on either DACA or Health Insurance .. the current President can/will change his mind if enough people apply pressure, make it his idea -TA DA he backs it?
Had NO idea the former President could be 'intimidated?' into not speaking his mind .. because of attention from the current President [or as the kool kids say ... "current Oval Office occupant]
Former President Obama never seemed to be the individual to shy away from most anything - the first time I heard he did nothing about the 'Russian breach/hacking' - was because he might be accused of something ..... I did not buy it then, and I do not buy it now - the man will speak his mind if he chooses to.
Good morning everyone...
Barak Obama, still a master of politics, is wisely using his influence:
“Mr. Obama’s appearances on behalf of Virginia’s lieutenant governor, Ralph S. Northam, in Richmond and the financier Philip D. Murphy in Newark — two white candidates in predominantly black cities — come as Democrats struggle to inspire African-Americans to vote this year."
Although one of these races appears close, these are districts where the former President can really bring out the minority vote. It should also be noted that Obama wisely knows when not to appear or speak - he happens to also be a lightning rod for Republican voters.
Good point(s) ... the former President is a Cult of Personality [not intended as an insult] that would still be voted for by a large number of the populace.
Seems like when Obama speaks now it is suppose to be some Gandhi like moment... Obama is a good speaker, yet he is NO Martin Luther King Jr. I lost a great deal of respect for President Obama during the Trayvon Martin / George Zimmerman case / which was amp'd after his words regarding Michael Brown [better stop myself right there] .. yet I will always respect the office the man held.
The divisions were beginning/prob always present for some, before Obama took office - yet his tenure magnified it .. just as the current President amplifies that magnification!
Just my thoughts Vic, hope they make sense! : )
I have to give both of you credit for walking lightly on this article. I don't know if I can, but I will try not to blast your article.
Obama is well liked by those who likes him and his word is next to God's word to these people. The same holds true for Trump. I think Obama can influence certain people because he does know when to speak and when to be silent, something I didn't care for about him, since most of the time it seemed his objectives for doing so were obviously contrary to what I would have preferred.
I found the former President to be very condescending as he picked and chose that which he would acknowledge, and in what manner he would do so. I felt most of the time 'we' bored him, yet it was his duty to pretend like he liked 'us' and cared about America - when I sincerely feel as though he may have resented all that this Nation has stood for .... while turning the US into the 'rogue' Nation spoke of in sermons by..........
Violating the sovereignty of Nations and droning them at will .. Hell even created a coalition to violate Syria right along with him - all in the name of fighting Daesh. [an organization that he ignored] Now Iran is in Iraq with a strong foot hold in Baghdad... American blood was shed where now Iranian Shia militia stand!
Getting close to ranting, better shut my fingers off : )
I was never a fan .. but I try to stay as center of the road as I can be, in order to get input from all sides, it is best not to bash - as I just did.
Peace
Fist public appearance? He hasn't left the public stage...
Never did.
The title is a lie. He never stopped campaigning.
Thank-you President Obama. Thank you for 8 stellar years leading us and the world out of the quagmire President Bush put us in. You restored order to the financial system, and restored America's reputation around the world, that was trashed under Bush. Now we have another president trashing America, and to an even greater state than Bush did. Hopefully our next president will be able to heal us once again from the utter disaster another corporate thug president is currently putting us through.
Pres. Obama brought us division that we thought had passed. Protesting became a norm. His DOJ didn't help matters either.
I want to forget those eight years that brought us to where we are now.
Look at the mass amounts of protesting that has happened both here and overseas since 45 took office. Do you really prefer where we are now?
as would i but it like recurring nightmare and we are paying for all those obama FU's
sure do considering the alternative...the protests are only because of sour grapes and libs obviously are not used to being told no so like spoiled toddlers they start crying and throwing fits
In Mississippi an elementary school which had been named after white supremacist Jefferson Davis is being renamed after Obama. That's sure to piss off Trump and the racist T-baggers.......I wonder if Trump will try to unwind that like he's been trying to unwind Obama's legacy?
.
Who in their right mind would name anything after Trump? Even some of his tenants are suing to get his name off the building they live in.