Climate Change Is Messing With Your Dinner
The world’s dinner tables are seeing the impact of climate change.
As cold regions become warmer, and warm places hotter still, farming and fishing are shifting. An evolving climate means big changes for people who grow, catch and rear for a living, and everyone else who buys and eats what they produce.
There are winners and losers. There are rich-world problems (less cod, more lobster) and poor (drought and pestilence). There are threats to the quality of the world’s basic staples including wheat and corn, as well as such nation-defining luxuries as Bordeaux wine and Java coffee. And whether through dearth or deluge, supply shocks can shake up prices.
A fisherman cleans his catch offshore from Newlyn, U.K.
Annie Sakkab/Bloomberg
As temperatures rise, the best growing conditions for many crops are moving away from the tropics, and from lower lying land to cooler climbs. Fish and other underwater catches, too, are migrating to colder seas as their habitats warm.
Projected wheat yield to 2050
CERES-wheat crop model based on past climate data and HadGEM2 projections for 2050.
Fertilizer, water management are same in both periods.
International Food Policy Research Institute
British fine wine, not so long ago an oxymoron, is now a thing. Coffee farmers in Indonesia, Ethiopia and Peru are venturing uphill. Across the Atlantic and the North Sea, U.K. trawlers see less cod and haddock for the nation’s fish and chips, and more squid and anchovies. The nation is importing its cod from Iceland, China and Norway.
“The very cold-water fish that our grandparents used to catch have moved further north, which means that we now import most of the fish that we eat,” said Dr. Stephen Simpson, an associate professor in marine biology and global change at Britain’s University of Exeter. “When we go on holiday in Spain, we often eat the U.K. fish.”
Blessed by Climate
It’s not gloom for everyone, with mostly colder northern areas benefiting so far.
“The areas where foods are grown the most efficiently are shifting,” said Jason Clay, a senior vice president at the World Wildlife Fund, who has more than four decades of expertise on farming and fishing issues. The U.S. corn belt stretching from Ohio to the Dakotas is edging toward the border with Canada, which is already growing more crops than it used to in some parts of the country, he said.
Russia is enjoying bumper harvests of wheat, the world’s most widely grown crop, partly as record temperatures boost yields. That’s adding to the global glut of grains, pushing down prices. In the U.S., North Dakota now has a longer growing season, while some California farmers are planting coffee.
Combine harvesters load trucks with wheat grain during the summer harvest in Ust-Labinsk, Russia.
Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg
Off the coast of Maine, lobstermen have been catching more of the delicacy than ever before. While further temperature increases may go too far and erode lobster populations in coming decades, for now crustaceans are still breeding in great profundity.
English sparkling wine is winning international awards as the climate in some areas of the country begins to resemble France’s Champagne region, while Poland is growing chardonnay and finicky pinot noir varieties.
Losing Out
But for many, the changes are bad news.
Warmer temperatures are encouraging pests and fungus to develop. Growers in the U.S. and Canada have suffered increased levels of poisonous mycotoxins from fungi in their crops because of drought and humidity. Coffee farmers face rising threats from pests including berry-borer beetles, while disease epidemics such as leaf rust have hit Central America, and Colombia to the south.
Extreme weather events from floods to droughts have taken their toll. In France, fickle weather has been a disaster for the vineyards of Bordeaux, with spring frosts damaging vines, and summer storms leading to grape rot in Champagne. The country’s production of wine overall hasn’t been this low in 60 years.
In California, wine country was ravaged by wildfires last year. Droughts swept across Africa, demolishing corn harvests from Ethiopia to South Africa two years ago. Brazil, the top coffee grower, has also been battling drought in the past few years that curbed crops. Researchers warn that the suitable area for the beans will shrink as temperatures rise.
Coffee Land
Brazil’s suitable areas, whether hot or cool, are poised to shrink
“When extreme events occur, you’re in trouble,” said Lorenzo Giovanni Bellu at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization. “For sure, climatologists see increasing occurrence of extreme events, which is the worst for agriculture.”
A Matter of Taste
Less immediately catastrophic is the effect on quality and flavor.
Arabica coffee beans, favored by cafe baristas, are the most sensitive to shifts in rainfall and temperature. Trees are usually grown at high altitude, where cooler temperatures allow the fruit to ripen slowly and develop more complex flavors of acidity and sweetness.
Workers collect coffee cherries during harvest at a plantation in Minas Gerais state, Brazil.
Patricia Monteiro/Bloomberg
“When temperatures rise, as has slowly been happening in many coffee producing countries for years, the warmth causes the coffee to ripen too quickly, which means less flavorful beans.” said Jamal Gawi, a climate-change consultant in Jakarta. Java coffee is among those affected, he said.
For wheat, while some regions have benefited from larger harvests, parts of Europe and the U.S. have recently seen reduced protein in their grain (important for keeping bread airy) thanks to sudden downpours.
Even rising carbon dioxide that helps plants grow can flush out essential nutrients such as zinc and iron.
Diminished Quality
Elevated CO2 levels reduce essential nutrient content in plants
Myers et al 2014
‘Rising CO2 threatens human nutrition’
Global Divide
Whether through crop failures or price impact, changes in climate have serious implications for nations concentrated in equatorial and tropical regions, whose economies and people rely on agriculture more than others.
Natural disasters have cost farmers in poorer countries billions of dollars a year in lost crops and livestock, and it’s getting worse thanks to climate change. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are dependent on single crops—Ethiopia relies on coffee for a third of its export earnings and Malawi gets about half from tobacco.
Food supply shocks and surging prices have the power to displace people and destabilize governments, as riots in more than 70 countries during a crop crisis in 2007—2008 showed.
Food Dependence
Trade as a share of domestic food supply
Nations reliant on food imports, many also in the Middle East and Africa, are vulnerable to supply upsets thousands of miles away that ripple through global markets to push up the cost of household staples. Drought in the biggest growers, from the U.S. and Russia to Brazil, can have dramatic effects on international prices and in some cases threaten political and social unrest among exposed populations. As Europe is discovering, such desperate people can’t be contained by borders.
Supply Shocks Drive Prices
“There will be some winners, but I think there are going to be far more losers and many of them, if not most, are going to be in the tropics,” said Clay at the WWF. “The bigger issue is that everybody is going to have to adjust, and the question is how fast.”
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by Agnieszka de Sousa and Hayley Warren
There may be links in the Original Article that have not been reproduced here.
... meanwhile, there are many, many beep-beep CoC violation beep-beep here on NT who continue to deny the reality of Climate Change.
But Bob, don't you know: climate change I just a hoax invented by liberals and perpetrated by conspirator "scientists" at NASA. >sarc<
I've notice that some of theses individuals may also not understand the difference between weather and climate. Neither do they offer any valid study or source which discredits climate change in the least. Or they simply think that man's impact on the climate is either negligible or non-existent.
I hear that, lol
And, you are confusing Man-Made Global Warming with Natural Global Warming. Those of us whom are Global Warming skeptics do not deny actual Climate Change as it is a natural cycle that has been happening with or without human presence on the planet. What we deny is that humans have an unnatural effect on the climate and that no matter what is proposed by the politicians and climate scientists that it will have little to no effect on the actual Climate Changes and would be a waste of money. I have a very unique perspective compared to almost everyone else here. I was trained in science (Chemistry) and computer programming for simulation purposes (focus on video games) and my family makes our money from Agriculture (grew up on a dairy farm in Central PA from 1979 to 2005 that started out milking 60 head to now milking over 1000 head and is expanding even more). I now live in Oregon and the more I experience, the more I know for a fact that human impact, while great for immediate threats (wildfires in dry conditions), is not a huge impact on the actual environment as nature continuously shows it is far more powerful that humanity.
Climate scientists study the natural cycle of climate change by examining ice cores and deep sea sediment cores. What they see now is a huge spike since industrialization which is what ignorant apologists for the fossil fuel industry continue to deny because it's financially beneficial for them to look the other way. Those who accept that humans are having a dramatic effect on global warming don't have any financial incentive one way or the other and can accept the facts as presented and believe the 97% of climate scientists that agree on what the evidence shows.
Warming is warming. Man made warming only supplements and exacerbates natural warming. But the end result is the same.
You better that to the guys at NASA or the NAS. They seem really committed to the lie. >sarc<
I'm sure most skeptics (deniers) have a "unique" experience too.
Thanks for the autobiography.
As actual science shows, human activity does have an impact. It's quite arrogant and foolish to think it doesn't.
The cause of climate change is overpopulation
That's the foundation of climate change. The demands and stresses placed on the environment and needs of the population is what drives climate change.
I see opportunity with hydroponics and vertical grow operations. I look to the future of our ever-changing climate enthusiastically as it opens the doors to many exciting new opportunities.
The future is just going to be AWFUL!!! Before long the Earth's temperature will be hot enough to melt lead, just like on Venus!!!
Whatever shall we do??? Oh the horror!!! Oh the humanity!!! And it's all the fault of the USA, theGOP, and Trump!!!
I see the panicked warmer alarmist alliance is at it again. Same old fear mongering and scare tactics. We've heard it all before.
Getting serious now...does anyone know the average temperature of the ocean(s)? It would have to depend on depth, location, season, prevailing winds, sunspot activity, solar insolation, etc. It's different at all times all over the planet. The total amount of warming since 1880 has been about .85 degree Celsius. The average sea level rise is about a 1/10 of a degree a year, about what would be expected in an interglacial period following the last significant Ice Age. There is evidence that we could be entering an extended period of reduced sunspot activity.
The USA has probably reduced emissions more than any other civilized country. How much lower can we go? How can we control what the rest of world does? We can't, and we should not pay them large sums of money to do anything, or nothing...which what the Paris Accord was all about.
http://www.climatedepot.com/
So... while world argro-business is already moving to adapt to conditions that they know will obtain in the near future... you know better...
Denialists used to claim that AGW was just a conspiracy among climatologists.
Now we have hard-headed corporations changing policy to manage the impact of AGW on them. So... I guess we must enlarge the conspiracy to include Big Business.
But through it all... you know better... (deleted ) SP
I am not the topic here. Deflection doesn't work. And I know what I am talking about, having done my own research. You can't pick and choose what parts of science that you want, in order to reach a desired outcome. That's not the way science works. I'm simply pointing out that the "science" of climate change is not settled and still very controversial, since the left has politicized it.
Not just the corporations but our own military leaders as well. This, despite the current idiot administration efforts to such studies and the science behind them.
.
The Pentagon Warned That Climate Change Threatens Half of America's Military Installations
By Justin Worland February 1, 2018
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Department of Defense
Climate-Related Risk to DoD Infrastructure
Initial Vulnerability Assessment Survey
(SLVAS) Report
It was a generic "you". "All you denialists". (Deleted ) - Skirting {SP}
Good find.
The fact that you link to ClimateDepot.com (CD) means your research is faulty.
Publishing fossil fuel industry lies, spin and propaganda is all Marc Morano does.
What else can one expect from a man who graduated from George Mason University with a BA degree in political science (no actual science taught a Koch U). He then went to work for Rush Limbaugh, then to CNS (Kochs again) then on to working for Jimmy "the snowball" Inhoff before starting CD as a clearing house for anti science propaganda. CD is funded by CFACT (think Kochs again).
I read the other two links you provided and they were pretty much spot on. They both say that a solar minimum likely won't cause any cooling due to the massive anthropogenic global warming that is currently happening. According to Milankovitch cycles the planet should actually be in a slight cooling phase instead of experiencing the current rapid temperature gains of the dominant forcing of AGW.
You might want to go to NASA or NOAA or NSIDC etc... for future research. Oil soaked blogs lie.
The immediate issue which does not seem to get much press, is potable water. Already effecting the RSA and the Asian sub-continent.
As Charger 383 pointed out, over population combined with these other issues will be the ultimate cause of our eventual collapse. No need to hurry it along though.