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The More Education Republicans Have, the Less They Tend to Believe in Climate Change

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  don-overton  •  5 years ago  •  0 comments

The More Education Republicans Have, the Less They Tend to Believe in Climate Change
Climate change divides Americans, but in an unlikely way: The more education that Democrats and Republicans have, the more their beliefs in climate change diverge.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T






An   exhaustive scientific report   unveiled this month   concluded that the earth is experiencing the warmest period in recorded history and that humans are the dominant cause of the temperature rise observed since the mid-20th century. That consensus   does not extend   to the American public.



Climate change divides Americans, but in an unlikely way: The more education that Democrats and Republicans have, the more their beliefs in climate change   diverge .





Percent saying they worry about climate change “a great deal”\ High school or less





This chart   , based on a   Gallup survey from March 2015, demonstrates this relationship clearly. About one in four Republicans with only a high school education said they worried about climate change a great deal. But among college-educated Republicans, that figure   decreases, sharply, to 8 percent.



This relationship   persists   even when pollsters pose different kinds of questions about climate change – when Republicans are asked if they believe global warming “will never happen,” if they think it poses “a serious threat to way of life in your lifetime” or if it is caused by “natural changes in the environment.”



This may seem counterintuitive, because better-educated Republicans are more likely to be aware of the scientific consensus that human activity is contributing to climate change. But in the realm of public opinion, climate change isn’t really a scientific issue. It’s a political one.



Even though better-educated Republicans may have more exposure to information about the science around climate change, they also have more exposure to partisan messages about it. And communications research says that matters more.



Few other national issues divide as sharply by education as climate change does. At the request of The New York Times, Andrew Dugan and   Jonathan Rothwell   of Gallup compiled estimates of Americans’ attitudes by party and education on a wide range of issues, including race, immigration, taxes and values. Climate change is near the top of that list.





Gap between college-educated Democrats and Republicans

DEM. REP. DIFFERENCE
Prefer government-run health care 72% 8% +64 Dem.
Trust and confidence in mass media 75% 11% +64 Dem.
Gov't should make sure all have health care 84% 22% +62 Dem.
Firearm sales laws should be stricter 91% 33% +58 Dem.
Worry about climate change a great deal 50% 8% +42 Dem.
Abortion is morally acceptable 82% 41% +41 Dem.
Taxed too little or the right amount 71% 30% +40 Dem.
Racism against blacks is widespread 80% 40% +40 Dem.
Handguns should be banned for most people 41% 9% +32 Dem.
Poor people pay too much in taxes 57% 27% +30 Dem.
Homosexuality is morally acceptable 86% 59% +27 Dem.
Immigration should be increased 35% 13% +22 Dem.
On the whole, immigration is a good thing 93% 73% +20 Dem.
Humans evolved over millions of years 84% 68% +16 Dem.
Gay relations should be legal 95% 80% +15 Dem.
Divorce is morally acceptable 91% 78% +13 Dem.
Dissastisfied with health care costs 79% 88% +9 Rep.
Race relations will always be a problem 31% 44% +13 Rep.
Health care is in a state of crisis 7% 21% +14 Rep.
Corporations pay too much in taxes 6% 23% +18 Rep.
Preventing terrorism is very important 73% 91% +18 Rep.
Rich people pay too much in taxes 2% 21% +19 Rep.
Racism against whites is widespread 20% 44% +24 Rep.

On many other issues – social issues in particular, including abortion, gay marriage and divorce – more education is associated with higher rates of acceptance, regardless of party. Gaps between Democrats and Republicans persisted, but the relationships moved more or less in tandem:

Issues where attitudes change   in tandem   with education

Gay relations should be legal H.S. or less

On the whole, immigration is a good thing H.S. or less

Humans evolved over millions of years H.S. or less

Abortion is morally acceptable H.S. or less

Racism against whites is widespread H.S. or less

On most other issues, education had little effect. Americans’ views on terrorism, immigration, taxes on the wealthiest, and the state of health care in the United States did not change appreciably by education for Democrats and Republicans.

Only a handful of issues had a shape like the one for climate change, in which higher education corresponded with higher agreement among Democrats and lower agreement among Republicans.

Issues where education has a   different relationship   depending on your party

Racism against blacks is widespread H.S. or less

Taxed too little or the right amount H.S. or less

Trust and confidence in mass media H.S. or less

Poor people pay too much in taxes H.S. or less

Prefer government-run health care

Worry about climate change a great deal H.S. or less

So what distinguishes these issues, climate change in particular?

First, climate change is a relatively new and technically complicated issue. On these kinds of matters, many Americans don’t necessarily have their own views, so they look to   adopt those of political elites . And when it comes to climate change, conservative elites are deeply skeptical.

This can trigger what social scientists call a polarization effect, as described by   John Zaller , a political scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles, in his   1992 book   about mass opinion. When political elites disagree, their views tend to be adopted first by higher-educated partisans on both sides, who become more divided as they acquire more information.

It may be easier to think about in terms of simple partisanship. Most Americans know what party they belong to, but they can’t be expected to know the details of every issue, so they tend to adopt the views of the leaders of the party they already identify with.

Climate change is not a social issue like gay marriage, divorce, racism or abortion – issues where Democrats’ and Republicans’ views move in tandem with education. On those kinds of issues, college-educated Americans of both parties tend to be more progressive.

But Americans do not treat climate change like a scientific issue either. In the past, consensus from the scientific community on factual issues effectively ended serious disagreement among elites, whether it was about things like whether blacks and whites have the same kind of blood or whether homosexuality was rooted in mental illness.

This shift – toward treating climate change as a political rather than as a scientific issue – is relatively new. As Mr. Zaller   wrote   in an update to “The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion”: “Science-minded elites are not the principal initiators of new partisan policies; interest groups, political intellectuals and perhaps even ambitious politicians are more important actors. The dynamics of public opinion formation may still be top-down, but science-minded elites are not the top.”

All survey results are from Gallup. “Republican” includes respondents who identify as “Republican” or “leaning Republican,” and “Democrat” includes respondents who identify as “Democratic” or “leaning Democratic.”

Questions about   gay marriage ,   abortion ,   evolution   and   divorce   come from Gallup’s   Values and Beliefs poll , last conducted May 3-7, 2017.

Questions about   immigration   are from a Gallup poll conducted June 7-11, 2017.

Questions about   health care   are from Gallup’s   GPSS Health Survey   conducted Nov. 9-13, 2016.

Questions about   terrorism   are from   Gallup’s World Affairs survey   conducted Feb. 1-5, 2017.

The questions about   taxes   come from Gallup’s   Economy and Finance survey   from April 5-9, 2017.

Questions about   race relations   are from the Gallup Minority Rights and Relations survey from March 2-6, 2016.

Questions about   trust and the media   are from the Gallup Governance Survey from Sept. 6-10, 2017.

Questions about   gun control   are based on aggregated data from Gallup’s crime surveys in October 2016 and October 2017 .


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