Trump's reelection looks more like a long shot than a slam dunk

  
Via:  john-russell  •  one month ago  •  24 comments

Trump's reelection looks more like a long shot than a slam dunk
And if you think this election will favor Trump, ask yourself this question: When was the last time his approval rating was above 45 percent and his disapproval was below 45 percent? Answer: not since his inauguration. Simply put, this fact does not bode well for this incumbent — no matter how strong the economy or his campaign’s success in turning out his voters. Trump is not a majority president. It’s unlikely he can be a majority candidate.      

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T




Trump's reelection looks more like a long shot than a slam dunk







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And while the Republican majority in the Senate may reject removing Trump from office, they cannot remove the   still-metastasizing scandal   that surrounds his actions with regard to Ukraine. The Senate can ignore, but it cannot remove, the damning facts and testimony from the public record, which show that Trump asked a foreign leader to investigate a potential 2020 rival and   illegally   withheld military assistance in an effort to gain leverage.  






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Trump’s mean disapproval rating for his third year also was terrible: 53.9 percent. He is the only president to have a mean disapproval rating above 50 percent. The two presidents who were closest were Carter (48.9) and Obama (47.4). Making matters worse, political scientists Peter Enns and Jonathon Schuldt have suggested that Trump may be   even less popular   than these standard Gallup approval and disapproval numbers suggest. 

Although some Trump supporters may be hopeful since Obama’s numbers were not strong and he still won reelection, it should be recalled that Obama earned   about 3.5 million   fewer popular votes in 2012 than in 2008. Obama also was   the first president since Woodrow Wilson to win reelection with fewer electoral votes   than in his first election. Trump cannot afford to lose another 3.5 million votes. He was down in 2016 by nearly 3 million votes already. 

And while some have suggested that Trump may be able to   lose up to 5 million votes and still win an electoral vote majority , they are overlooking how the Electoral College has worked in the past. Popular vote inversions rarely occur when one candidate earns a majority of the popular vote. Since 1860, there have been 26 presidential elections in which a candidate earned a majority of the popular vote. In 25 of these elections, the candidate who earned the popular vote majority also won the Electoral College. There was only one inversion. In 1876, Samuel Tilden earned 50.92 percent of the popular vote, but lost the election to Rutherford Hayes.

It is also the case that since 1860 there have been 14 presidential elections where no candidate earned a majority of the popular vote because third-party and independent candidates did relatively well. Among this smaller set of elections, there have been three inversions: 1888, 2000 and 2016. In each of these three elections, the plurality winner earned about 48 percent of the popular vote. In 1888, Grover Cleveland won 48.63 percent; in 2000,   Al Gore won 48.38 percent; and in 2016,   Hillary Clinton won 48.02 percent. 






Given this history, it would appear that ever since Republicans and Democrats have been competing for the presidency, the real key to winning the Electoral College is winning a popular vote majority — not a popular vote plurality (48 percent), a significant margin over one’s main opponent (millions of votes) or a majority of the two-party popular vote (which omits third-party and independent candidates to compare across elections). 

Returning to Trump, it seems highly unlikely that third-party and independent candidates will be able to attract as many votes in 2020 as they did in 2016. No matter what happens between now and November, it is difficult to imagine voters being willing to “waste their votes” to send a message. This was part of the election dynamic in 2016. Even though both candidates were broadly disliked, most believed that Hillary Clinton would win. 

Voters on both sides of the aisle believed that their votes were not likely to change the outcome and that by voting for a third party, they could send a message to the parties that they should “do better.” More than 6 percent of the vote went for candidates other than Clinton or Trump. That will not be the case in 2020. Partisans are   highly engaged   and seem unlikely to stray from their respective party nominees. Independents and occasional voters also are likely to believe their votes may make the difference between one side winning or losing. 

In this circumstance, one candidate probably will earn a majority of the popular vote and likely win the Electoral College. 

And if you think this election will favor Trump, ask yourself this question: When was the last time his approval rating was above 45 percent and his disapproval was below 45 percent? Answer:   not since his inauguration . Simply put, this fact does not bode well for this incumbent — no matter how strong the economy or his campaign’s success in turning out his voters. Trump is not a majority president. It’s unlikely he can be a majority candidate.      

Lara M. Brown is director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University and the author of the forthcoming book, "Amateur Hour: Presidential Character and the Question of Leadership." Follow her on Twitter   @LaraMBrownPhD .




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JohnRussell
1  seeder  JohnRussell    one month ago

Trump's only chance is that there will be a third party candidate that will draw votes from the Democrat. 

In a one on one race he has no chance because there is no way half the country will vote for him. 

Even in Michigan or Wisconsin. 

 
 
 
bbl-1
1.1  bbl-1  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one month ago

Tulsi Gabbard?

 
 
 
Texan1211
1.2  Texan1211  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one month ago

Are you saying that Democrats won't support their own candidate?

Like in 2016?

 
 
 
Ronin2
1.2.1  Ronin2  replied to  Texan1211 @1.2    one month ago

They haven't learned anything. It is good to know that the left is stuck on stupid as always.

 
 
 
igknorantzrulz
1.2.2  igknorantzrulz  replied to  Ronin2 @1.2.1    one month ago

They haven't learned anything. It is good to know that the left is stuck on stupid as always.

only ones "stuck on stupid"

are those still attempting to defend the Convict in Chief

 
 
 
XDm9mm
1.3  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one month ago
In a one on one race he has no chance because there is no way half the country will vote for him. 

First, everyone was saying the same thing until around 10 or 11 pm on election night 2016.   Oop's.   First mistake.

Second, "half" the country didn't vote for him in 2016.  This country isn't a majority mob rule democracy.  It's a Constitutional Republic that was created that way simply to avoid the mob rule.

Third, in NO state does he need half of the voters to win.  He only needs the plurality to secure the Electoral College.

Damn JR, I thought you were smarter than that.   My mistake I guess.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
1.3.1  seeder  JohnRussell  replied to  XDm9mm @1.3    one month ago

If there is a one on one , two party race, it is likely that the winner will have at least 50% of the vote. 

Trump hasnt come within spitting distance of 50% approval, .....ever. 

It is HIGHLY likely that no more than 45 or 46 percent of Americans will vote for Trump under any circumstances. Close to 50% of Americans have already told pollsters there is no circumstance under which they will vote for him. 

Do you seriously think the impeachment evidence against trump, and all his constant lies, will GAIN him votes?

You keep referring to 2016. In 2016 Americans hadnt seen him in office for 4 years. Seeing him in office has in fact caused many people to say they will never vote for him again. 

I dont see any evidence it has caused much of anyone who didnt vote for him last time to vote for him this time. 

 
 
 
loki12
1.3.2  loki12  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3.1    one month ago
I dont see

I couldn't have said it better myself.

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
1.3.3  Sean Treacy  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3.1    one month ago

47% job approval rating among likely voters in yesterday’s ABC poll. 


 
 
 
XDm9mm
1.3.4  XDm9mm  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3.1    one month ago
If there is a one on one , two party race, it is likely that the winner will have at least 50% of the vote. 

Sorry JR, when was the last time in this country that there was a strict "two party race"?   You have the Green, socialist, Independent, Communist and a plethora of other partys in the game.

Trump hasnt come within spitting distance of 50% approval, .....ever. 

HE DIDN'T in 2016 either.  Do you have a mental block that 50% is NOT//NOT necessary?

It is HIGHLY likely that no more than 45 or 46 percent of Americans will vote for Trump under any circumstances. Close to 50% of Americans have already told pollsters there is no circumstance under which they will vote for him. 

Once again, IMMATERIAL.   He only needs to win the electoral college votes.  And the job he's doing is very much appreciated in not only the states he previously won, but others as well.

Do you seriously think the impeachment evidence against trump, and all his constant lies, will GAIN him votes?

THERE is only bullshit against him as the Republicans are currently proving.  They've established that the Democrats did NOT//NOT provide everything in their presentation, plus those ever oh so popular Schiff parodies keep coming back to kick him in the ass.

You keep referring to 2016. In 2016 Americans hadnt seen him in office for 4 years. Seeing him in office has in fact caused many people to say they will never vote for him again. 

People might not like the man, and honestly, that's understandable.  He's arrogant and often obnoxious.  But then what President isn't?  The difference is that Trump has the balls to let the people see what he is as opposed to a politician that cares about ' politically acceptable appearances'.

Further, people, while they might not like the man personally, sure as shit like the trajectory of the country.  Record market valuations, great wage growth, record employment numbers, etc., etc., etc.

I dont see any evidence it has caused much of anyone who didnt vote for him last time to vote for him this time. 

Tell that to the people that have jobs and that now have better jobs thanks to his POLICIES.   I'll submit that they'll tell you something quite different.

 
 
 
XDm9mm
1.3.5  XDm9mm  replied to  Sean Treacy @1.3.3    one month ago
47% job approval rating among likely voters in yesterday’s ABC poll.

GM Sean....  isn't that similar to or even better than the approval rating of Obama going into his second election?

 
 
 
Sean Treacy
1.3.6  Sean Treacy  replied to  XDm9mm @1.3.5    one month ago

It's true. Gallup had Obama's approval rating at 45% at this time in 2012.

Obama's approval rating went up after  had a specific Republican candidate to attack. "Kill Romney" was the Obama reelection strategy.  Trump will follow Obama's gameplan and go right after whoever the Democrats ultimately settle on.

 
 
 
WallyW
1.3.7  WallyW  replied to  JohnRussell @1.3.1    one month ago
Seeing him in office has in fact caused many people to say they will never vote for him again. 

The evidence is too weak and lame to support impeachment. There is no evidence that Trump has lost much support, but it is reasonable to assume that  the Democrats will llose a considerable number of voters

 
 
 
squiggy
1.4  squiggy  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one month ago

"Even in Michigan or Wisconsin."

The only moderate with a chance is Bloomberg. I want to see what they do to the gun-grabber.

 
 
 
Texan1211
1.4.1  Texan1211  replied to  squiggy @1.4    one month ago

I haven't heard Bloomberg advocating for Medicare for all, or free college tuition and forgiveness of college loans. so he will probably lose the nomination. I think the Dems have anointed Joe as their new hero.

 
 
 
squiggy
1.4.2  squiggy  replied to  Texan1211 @1.4.1    one month ago

He could have run the table last time. Now, he's an old, blind dog.

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
1.5  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  JohnRussell @1    one month ago

"Shifty" Schiff is doing wonders for Trumps reelection chances, especially in the last two days! Acquittal is looking more and more certain and the Senate Republicans are not even halfway through their thing. Schiff should have kept his mouth shut and stuck to what he thought were facts. Now he has alienated people right and left. (pun intended)

 
 
 
XDm9mm
1.5.1  XDm9mm  replied to  Ed-NavDoc @1.5    one month ago
Senate Republicans are not even halfway through their thing.

Hell man, they only did their opening remarks stuff.   Wait till they bring out the big guns.

 
 
 
Ed-NavDoc
1.5.2  Ed-NavDoc  replied to  XDm9mm @1.5.1    one month ago

Yeppir!

 
 
 
Larry Hampton
2  Larry Hampton    one month ago

Its Gonna be interesting. When the time arrives, there are gonna be Republican politicians that will see an opportunity. There will also be Some that will see an escape hatch in the election, giving them the chance to remove themselves from the Rump hamster wheel. 

 
 
 
Ronin2
2.1  Ronin2  replied to  Larry Hampton @2    one month ago

By voting for whoever rolls out of the insane exploding clown car of Democratic candidates running ever further left? Not damn likely. Why would any vote against their own beliefs and interests?  Especially for a candidate espousing economy killing ideas?

Best the left can hope for is that they stay home or vote 3rd party; and as election proved (with two of the most toxic candidates ever) neither of those things will happen.

 
 
 
bbl-1
3  bbl-1    one month ago

The coming summer is going to be hot.  The specter of Trump fear will wane.  More voices will come out from the Trump's past.  His unholy alliance with the christian dominionist will place the charlatan in the bullseye.  The Trump's acquittal in The Senate will be the gift of his undoing.   

 
 
 
arkpdx
4  arkpdx    one month ago

I am going to place this with all the articles in 2016 that said Hillary was going to win by a landside and there was no possible exceptions

 
 
 
The Magic Eight Ball
4.1  The Magic Eight Ball  replied to  arkpdx @4    one month ago

but, but, but, this time will be different... LOL   the polls say so... LOL

believing the same things and expecting a different reality? insanity and priceless

cheers :)

 
 
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