Biden leads Trump by 15 points in Washington Post/ABC poll amid pandemic - Axios

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  3 weeks ago  •  5 comments

By:   Axios

Biden leads Trump by 15 points in Washington Post/ABC poll amid pandemic - Axios
Biden is ahead of Trump 55-40% among registered voters, the poll finds.

Down Fifteen Percent! Trump's chances are melting!


S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



Axios

Photos: Drew Angerer/Getty Images (left); Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Former Vice President Joe Biden is the preferred candidate to handle the coronavirus pandemic and he's opened up a 15-point lead over President Trump, an ABC News/Washington Post poll published early on Sunday finds.

By the numbers: Biden is ahead of Trump 55%-40% among registered voters. However, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee's margin reduces to 54%-44% among likely voters.

Why it matters: Per the poll news release, "Three and a half months ago the two candidates were virtually even in trust to handle the pandemic, Trump +2 percentage points, 45-43 percent. Today, with COVID-19 cases surging around the nation, Biden leads Trump on the issue by a 20-point margin, 54-34 percent."

The picture: The phone survey of 1,006 adults, conducted July 12-15 with a margin of error of 3.5 points, comes as coronavirus cases spike across the United States. The COVID-19 death toll surpassed 140,000 in the U.S. on Sunday.

  • 19 states this week set new highs for coronavirus infections recorded in a single day, and the U.S. on Saturday reported more than 71,500 new coronavirus cases — second highest to the record 75,600-plus set last Thursday.
  • 62% of registered voters told a Quinnipiac University poll out last Wednesday that Trump is hurting efforts to slow the spread of COVID-19.

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JBB
1  seeder  JBB    3 weeks ago

Trump's reelection chances are circling the drain...

 
 
 
MUVA
2  MUVA    3 weeks ago

I bet the over sampling of democrats is somewhere 12 to 15 percent as usual.

 
 
 
JBB
2.1  seeder  JBB  replied to  MUVA @2    3 weeks ago

On what do you base that totally unfounded belief?

 
 
 
MUVA
2.1.1  MUVA  replied to  JBB @2.1    3 weeks ago

The fact they didn't list the amount of democrats  likely voters over sampled compared to republicans or independents likely voters and  who paid for the poll is the first thing.The second thing where do the people live they sampled all over the country New York, California  Washington come on they would list all the metrics if they weren't fudging the sampling.

 
 
 
Adam_Selene
2.2  Adam_Selene  replied to  MUVA @2    3 weeks ago

Yes, pollsters frequently over sample segments of the population that they might later want to break into smaller portions. (White Female Evangelicals who make over 50,000 a year and have a college education.) That would give you a pretty small sample to query and give a very large margin of error. This is improved by oversampling that catches that segment. Generally, over sampling is not what many people think it is.

No, over sampling is not a problem since that segment will be reduced based on weights established from many previous polls. (x % Democrats, X% Republicans, X% Independent.

Now you can argue over the weights that polling organizations use and you can argue over how they differentiate between Registered and Likely voters.  As long as the pollster maintains a constant process you can compare the trends in their polls.

While you cannot directly compare a Rasmussen poll with a CNN poll, you can however average out many polls to reduce bias.

Realclearpolitics is one of the better sources that uses this process.

The Realclearpolitics poll was with in 1.9% in predicting the 2016 popular vote. The running average had been showing Clinton with between 3 and 4% lead for  the popular vote for a while.  She received a 2.1% lead. That would be with in the typical +-3.5% margin of error for an individual poll that predicted a 4% lead.

So far the best Trump has been able to do is to bring up the rear by 4% a couple of times. Looks like it is settling in to bouncing between 6 to 10 points behind for a while.

Oh, I notice that Fox news has Biden up 8 points.

 
 
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