Biden will beat Trump, says historian who predicted every race since 1984
The Magic 8-ball also has Biden beating Trump...
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
Published Wed, Aug 5 202010:02 AM EDTUpdated 49 Min Ago Key Points
- Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden
- Lichtman's prediction model looks at 13 different categories, dubbed the "Keys to the White House," that have more to do with the record of the incumbent party occupying the White House than the nominees themselves.
- "The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House," Lichtman said in an op-ed video for The New York Times.
In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Wilmington, Del., on March 12, 2020, left, and President Donald Trump speaks at the White House in Washington on April 5, 2020. AP
The historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 - including President Donald Trump's win in 2016 - has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Allan Lichtman, an author and history professor at American University, revealed his prediction in an op-ed video for The New York Times published Wednesday.
Lichtman's predictive method - which puts him squarely in the minority of analysts who were right in calling Trump's win - largely ignores the detailed cross-tab polling analyses and swing state bean counting that are often prioritized in modern political punditry.
"The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races," Lichtman said in the Times' video. "But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country."
Polls are "snapshots in time," Lichtman said. "None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election."
Lichtman's prediction model looks at 13 different categories, dubbed the "Keys to the White House," which have more to do with the record of the incumbent party occupying the White House than the nominees themselves.
The keys are presented as true-false statements, framed to favor a win for the incumbent party if true. But if six or more of the statements are false, the challenger - in this case, Biden - is predicted to win the election.
Lichtman's verdict? "The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House."
Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh pushed back on that prediction in a statement to CNBC.
"This is an election like no other in history and the choice couldn't be more clear - between President Trump's established record of accomplishment for all Americans and Joe Biden's 47 years of failure and acquiescence to the extreme left," Murtaugh said. "American voters will decide this election, not academics or professors."
The Biden campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC's requests for comment.
The model favors Biden on seven of the 13 prompts. They touch on issues such as which party has a mandate - Republicans lost House seats in the 2018 midterms - and the short-term and long-term economy under Trump.
"The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession," Lichtman said in the video.
Despite his impressive track record, Lichtman's simple-seeming model has its skeptics. Nate Silver, the writer and analyst at FiveThirtyEight who was famously correct in predicting every state outcome in the 2012 election, wrote in 2011 that Lichtman's results "should be taken with a grain of salt."
Lichtman himself offers a note of caution in his video for the Times. "There are forces at play outside the keys," he said, such as voter suppression and potential Russian election meddling.
Here's where Trump and Biden stand in Lichtman's model, along with Lichtman's responses from the video:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than it did after the previous midterm elections.False. "Republicans lost the U.S. House midterms in 2018."
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. True. "No Republicans challenged Trump."
3. Incumbency: The sitting president is running for re-election.True. "Doesn't look like he's stepping down."
4. Third Party: There is no major third-party challenge. True. "Despite claims by Kanye West to be running, this is a two-party race."
5. Short-Term Economy: The economy during the election season is not in recession. False. "The [coronavirus] pandemic has pushed the economy into recession."
6. Long-Term Economy: Real annual per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the two previous terms. False. "The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false."
7. Policy Change: The incumbent causes major changes in national policy. True. "Through his tax cut, but mostly through his executive orders, Trump has fundamentally changed the policies of the Obama era."
8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the campaign. False. "There has been considerable social unrest on the streets, with enough violence to threaten the social order."
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.False. "As I predicted, Trump was impeached. Plus, he has plenty of other scandals."
10. Foreign or Military Failure:The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.True."We've had some very difficult moments with Donald Trump, but so far, true."
11. Foreign or Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.False. "While Trump hasn't had any big, splashy failures, he hasn't had any major successes either."
12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic.False. "Trump is a great showman, but he only appeals to a narrow slice of Americans."
13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic.True."Biden is a decent, empathetic person, but he's not inspirational or charismatic."
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Allan Lichthman picks only winners and he picks Joe!
Which is why Trump will cheat with foreign assistance (Putin) and corrupting the USPS (Louis DeJoy).
Which is why we must give Trump a thumpin!
How, exactly, does that work.
Trump obviously thinks it works since he's been begging and even trying to extort just about every despot and authoritarian on the planet for their aid in his re-election attempt. Apparently many conservatives are either so stupid or gullible that they buy the bullshit dirt foreign liars like Putin manufacture and sell as right wing talking points.
Well, first you have to put on your liberal fantasy hat.
It will allow you to believe everything negative about Trump--no matter how outlandish or far-fetched, and completely disregard anything positive about him.
Then, you have to listen to CNN or MSNBC to get your daily talking points. Extra credit if you stay up late and watch Rachel twice in a night.
Third, go on any website and just blurt out the most fantastical thing you can dream up, declare it fact, and shout down anyone who disagrees.
Biden is a decent, empathetic person, " but he's not inspirational or charismatic."
I doubt his decency, and he has a history of being mean spirited.
The guy lied about his family being killed by a drunk driver. “Decent” people don’t do that.
Decent people don't go around bragging how they grab women by their vaginas, either
depends on ones opinion of decency...no ?
You're right. I forgot that some of us have different thoughts on what is decent and what is not
To some deplorables, the man who has been accused by two dozen women of sexual assault, admitted in his own words that he doesn't "even wait" for consent and just starts kissing women he finds attractive and grabs them by the pussy because he thinks he's a "star" and has been accused of raping a 13 year old is their most "decent" candidate. I'd hate to see their runner up.
Richard Ramirez?
the party of disgusting
Well I do not study this as deeply as Professor Lichtman, but my analysis focuses on what I think are the three key factors underlying Trump's ability to win.
So, in my analysis, Trump's top 3 strengths have turned into:
Right now it does look like Biden will win. But, as was true with Trump, factors do change so this is far from over.
I just watch the numbers and Biden's numbers (where they count the most) are stronger than Clinton's were at this time in 2016. Where Clinton was trending down by this time Biden's numbers seem to be holding steady. I say this and then keep seeing the studies by the company that interview Obama voters that also voted for Trump. 7 of 10 of those interviewed in swing states say they are sticking with Trump. It's a weird dichotomy I can't wrap my head around.
i cant either, asz when people have their own heads wrapped around their own ass's, it's difficult to comprehend, plus, who knew, our country contained such a count of collossoly confused counterproductive and intelligent contoursionests , comprehending a convoluted & constantly repudiated continuously refutiated mentally diluted corrosively polluted White power house piece of White Trash Who Will be Canned, cause he's, such a peach .
… but this is no time for complacency. We need to get out the vote this November since the more Americans who vote, the more likely Biden will not only win but win by an irrefutable margin, but by a tsunami of blue that will wipe Republican legislators off the map as they no longer deserve any leadership roles in this country.
fuck them. They put their party over our country and let this imbecile get away with so much, it's disgusting. They could have reigned him in , but NO, how many needless death, how pathetic our country has become, and it's all due, to a party Repub like con artists.
Complacency is a problem but enthusiasm (undivided and in support of Biden) and an active ground game is what is going to make the biggest difference.
The New York Times has a good video about this... but behind the paywall.
It's pretty convincing.
Allen Lichtmann, a liberal Democrat. Go figure...
In the video, he says that the hardest thing is to keep one's own opinions out of it.
He called the Republican wins, including Trump.
Hello Bob. Have not seen anything from you in a while. You just get back from France recently?
Hi.
Actually, we just got back to France. We're in a small city (Calais, on the English Channel coast) where the virus is at bay.
The trip back was kinda scary....
Calais is a place I have always wanted to visit. Lot of history there. My ancestors on my father's side are from the Calais area. I guess that's a big difference from the Yuma area. Best wishes and stay safe Sir!
You might be disappointed. While there's indeed a lot of history bound up in Calais, there isn't much to see. The city was flattened by USAAF strikes in WWII, and had to be rebuilt as quickly and cheaply as possible.
It's a pleasant place, though... or would be if we didn't have a BIG migrant problem. They want to go to England. There are several reasons, none particularly valid. But they want to go there.
Most have refugee status, and therefore access to housing, food, and so on.. but those advantages are far from the Channel. They prefer to rough it in Calais, in hopes of finding a way across. This has been going on for a decade, with no end in sight.
There's been little violence between migrants and Calaisians - much more among their own several ethnic groups. Calaisians' problems aren't grave - massive littering, occasional roadblocks intended to stop England-bound trucks in hopes stowing away. Risk of running over migrants crossing the four-lane anywhere and anywhen.
And extreme fatigue, after ten years of this.....
check your sources.... LOL
biden does not have a chance
On which facts do you base this bold claim?
the same facts used when I said hillary would not beat trump in 2016
Okay, what are those facts?