Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally, polls finds

  

Category:  News & Politics

Via:  jbb  •  2 weeks ago  •  30 comments

By:   USA TODAY

Biden leads Trump by 12 points nationally, polls finds
Joe Biden's 12-point lead in an ABC News/Washington Post poll was the latest in a series of surveys to find President Trump down by double digits.

S E E D E D   C O N T E N T



Matthew BrownUSA TODAY

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 12-percentage-point advantage over President Donald Trump, according to a ABC News/Washington Post poll.

The poll, conducted Oct. 6-9, has Biden up 53%-41% among registered voters and 54%-42% among likely voters.

Biden's lead appears largely a result of voter's negative opinion of Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Fifty-eight percent disapproved of how Trump has handled the virus, while 73% said they were concerned about themselves or an immediate family member contracting the virus, the highest number since the outbreak began.

The findings are among a string of polls showing Biden with a strong lead ahead of the November election. The RealClearPolitics polling average shows Biden with a 9.8-point lead, while FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an average 10.3-point advantage.

The poll found Biden with a 69%-25% lead with moderate voters, potentially the strongest polling a Democratic candidate has held among independents since 1988 exit polls.

Notably, that success with independents was not enough to give then-Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis a victory. The polling is also not definitive; Hillary Clinton held a 12-point lead over Trump nationally in an ABC/Post poll on Oct. 22, 2016, even closer to the election.

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Trump maintains a 54% positive approval rating on his handling of the economy. He is in a statistical tie with Biden on whom voters trust to handle the economy, 48%-47%.

Trump maintains a sizable enthusiasm advantage, with 75% of Trump supporters saying they are very enthusiastic about him, compared with 60% of Biden supporters who shared that level of support.

Overall, 44% of Americans approve of Trump's job as president and 54% disapprove. Trump's average approval rating in office, 40%, has remained consistent throughout his presidency.

Fifty-six percent also said Trump did not pay his fair share of taxes, following a New York Times report that showed the president paid only $750 in taxes in 2017, his first year in office, and nothing in the 11 out of 18 years for which The Times obtained his tax returns.

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The poll also found anxieties over the election process and a peaceful transfer of power. Just 40% of voters said they would vote on election day, a record low. Fifty-eight percent said they'll vote early while there has been a slight increase in the number saying they'll vote in person, 21%, compared with 23% saying they'll vote by mail.

Seventy-nine percent of registered voters say they're prepared to accept the outcome of the election, a commitment Trump has refused to make. Eighteen percent said they were not prepared to accept the outcome, including 16% of Biden supporters and 22% of Trump supporters.


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JBB
1  seeder  JBB    2 weeks ago

Can you spell L A N D S L I D E?

 
 
 
KDMichigan
1.1  KDMichigan  replied to  JBB @1    2 weeks ago
Can you spell L A N D S L I D E?

I sure hope so I don't know if I can take another 4 years of sniveling TDS sufferers. 

The only question is if Biden wins what will the democrats cry about next?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
1.1.1  JohnRussell  replied to  KDMichigan @1.1    2 weeks ago
The only question is if Biden wins what will the democrats cry about next?

Argentina

 
 
 
KDMichigan
1.1.2  KDMichigan  replied to  JohnRussell @1.1.1    2 weeks ago
Argentina

Yeah I can see how left wingers think they are to Democratic...

 
 
 
Sparty On
2  Sparty On    2 weeks ago

Can you spell:

D E J A  V U

all over again?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
2.1  JohnRussell  replied to  Sparty On @2    2 weeks ago

Can you spell  TRUMP IS NOT MORALLY, INTELLECTUALLY, ETHICALLY, OR PSYCHOLOGICALLY FIT TO HOLD OFFICE ?

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.1.1  Sparty On  replied to  JohnRussell @2.1    2 weeks ago

Can you spell B U T T H U R T or T D S or P R E P A R A T I O N H?

 
 
 
JBB
2.2  seeder  JBB  replied to  Sparty On @2    2 weeks ago

Can you see the pyramids from that river in Egypt?

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.2.1  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @2.2    2 weeks ago

Nah, but if i could i might be blocking your view .....

 
 
 
JBB
2.2.2  seeder  JBB  replied to  Sparty On @2.2.1    2 weeks ago

Because being down by double digits is good?

 
 
 
Sparty On
2.2.3  Sparty On  replied to  JBB @2.2.2    2 weeks ago

Seems you have great view of that river you speak of .... enjoy!

 
 
 
Perrie Halpern R.A.
3  Perrie Halpern R.A.    2 weeks ago

The real issue is not the national polls, but state by state polls, since to win, you need electoral college. I was recently guided to this site http://270towin.com/. There it breaks it out state by state. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
3.2  Sparty On  replied to  Perrie Halpern R.A. @3    2 weeks ago

IMO it's simply getting tougher and tougher to find unbiased pollsters.   Just like ti's getting tougher and tougher to truly find unbiased reporters.   I say "reporters" because true "journalists" are almost extinct these days .....

 
 
 
Release The Kraken
4  Release The Kraken    2 weeks ago

It's clear Joe is winning, his big Arizona bus tour kicked off this morning. Don't be alarmed not a single person showed for the scheduled event.

CAN YOU FEEL THE ENERGY? No worries, no one can either. It's stealth energy!

 
 
 
TᵢG
4.1  TᵢG  replied to  Release The Kraken @4    2 weeks ago

I think the election dynamics this year are simply pro-Trump, anti-Trump and 'I do not want to vote for either of these bozos'.   Who will be elected is —this year more than others— going to be a function of which group (of the three) are more motivated to do what is required to vote.   COVID-19 introduces a dimension into election dynamics that we have never experienced.   Who is going to deal with the lines and the bullshit to vote and who will be dissuaded?

Yes it sure looks like Biden has the upper hand with substantially better poll metrics against Trump than Clinton had.   And Trump has lost two of his big three positive factors (1. economy, 2. incumbency, 3. comfortable electorate) and simply has the benefits of incumbency.   The economy is not a benefit or a drawback for Trump at this point.   The electorate, however, has gone from comfortable to uncomfortable (and stressed).   Comfort thus is a net negative for Trump.

But plenty of blindly enthused Trump followers remain (just observe the blind partisanship here on NT) who will cast their votes no matter what.   We do not know (and will not know until Nov 3rd) if there is enough opposition to counteract this.    It is, of course, a function of turnout.

I expect Trump to lose because of losing 2 of his 3 mega factors, but since his opponent is not an awe-inspiring candidate I cannot assume the poll-advantage will translate into actual votes cast.  

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.1  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @4.1    2 weeks ago

Your analysis never takes into account Trump's clear lack of fitness to hold elected office. 

Either you don't think that is important or you don't think that the American electorate thinks it is important. The latter says something horrible about the American people and our country. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
4.1.2  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.1    2 weeks ago
Your analysis never takes into account Trump's clear lack of fitness to hold elected office. 

That is already factored in.   Those who support Trump consider him fit (or do not care if he is fit).   Those who oppose him do not consider him fit (and/or oppose him for purely partisan reasons).

Those lines have been drawn for a long time.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.3  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.2    2 weeks ago

Then why do you always base your analysis on the economy and whether people are "satisfied"?  You are telling us that even though the majority of Americans consider Trump unfit for office, enough of them would vote for him anyway?  That says something disturbing about our country. 

 
 
 
Release The Kraken
4.1.4  Release The Kraken  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.3    2 weeks ago

Remember all the articles you posted in 2015 about Hillary leading in the polls? The media believes that bogus polling will somehow suppress the vote.

It failed in 2016 and it's going to fail now.

I will be surprised if any of you bother to log in after the schlonging.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.5  JohnRussell  replied to  Release The Kraken @4.1.4    2 weeks ago

There are many articles that explain how 2020 is different from 2016. 

 The main difference I see though,   is that people have now seen Trump in office for four years, and are largely appalled by what they see. 

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.1.6  Sparty On  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.5    2 weeks ago
The main difference I see though,   is that people have now seen Trump in office for four years, and are largely appalled by what they see. 

John, you couldn't see the reality of this case if it was your own child.   You are so biased against Trump and have railed against him so intensely the last four years, you will never be reasonable on the topic.   NEVER!

I fear for your mental health after the election ..... i honestly do.   I mean the following sincerely: i hope you have a good network of family and friends to take care of you if Trump wins.   You are clearly going to need a lot of help to get past four more years.   A lot of help.

 
 
 
TᵢG
4.1.7  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.3    2 weeks ago
Then why do you always base your analysis on the economy and whether people are "satisfied"?  You are telling us that even though the majority of Americans consider Trump unfit for office, enough of them would vote for him anyway?  That says something disturbing about our country. 

First, as I noted, consider the fitness question factored into the electorate.   Second, where do you find clear evidence that the majority of the voting electorate consider Trump unfit?   Third, as I mentioned, there are no doubt Trump supporters who consider him unfit to be PotUS but will vote for him anyway based on what they expect to see as results of another term of Trump vs. a term of Biden.   Just observe an individual who deems Biden a lying sack of shit yet proclaims Trump to be the greatest PotUS of all time.   Or who deems Kamala Harris a whore yet refuses to acknowledge the hypocrisy of applying the very same criteria to the first lady.  

My analysis presumes that the fitness question is already baked into people's views.    It also sees Trump weaker than he was prior to COVID-19.    So one would expect even an uninspiring opponent like Biden would prevail.

The key factor, as I have noted, that bothers me most is turnout given COVID-19.   Will the anti-Trump vote be sufficiently enthused to get out and vote for Biden?   I simply do not know and would not be shocked if Trump were to win based on a luck of turnout.

Now, if JFK Jr. were alive and running against Trump, I would have a very different analysis.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.8  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.7    2 weeks ago
Just observe an individual who deems Biden a lying sack of shit yet proclaims Trump to be the greatest PotUS of all time.  

You are referring to idiots I assume. 

You keep on pretending there is a choice between two viable candidates in this election. There is no such choice. One candidate (Biden) is fit to hold office , and the other is not. Or do you consider a known serial liar, crook, bigot, moron , and cheat possibly fit to hold office?  And it is known that Trump is all those things, it is not speculation. 

As long as intelligent people like yourself insist on saying there is a choice as to what must be done in this election , the country is fucked. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
4.1.9  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.8    2 weeks ago
You are referring to idiots I assume. 

Idiots who you could name.

You keep on pretending there is a choice between two viable candidates in this election.

John your continued making this personal is offensive.   I am not pretending anything.   If you cannot read my analysis any better than that and instead resort (always) to simply claiming that there is no choice then just steer clear of me.  

There is a choice;  the choice is Trump/Pence or Biden/Harris.   For you to claim there is no choice is to deny the votes that will be cast for Trump/Pence.   It is an irrational belief and, frankly, I am sick of dealing with it.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
4.1.10  JohnRussell  replied to  TᵢG @4.1.9    2 weeks ago

Sorry there is no "choice" when one candidate is fit to hold office and the other is not. 

There is only the American people doing the right thing , or not. What they do will prove what kind of people we are. 

 
 
 
TᵢG
4.1.11  TᵢG  replied to  JohnRussell @4.1.10    2 weeks ago

By that reasoning there is never a choice for a partisan.   No matter who is running from the other party, the candidate is not considered.   No choice ... ever.

That unary definition of choice renders the word ‘choice’ meaningless.   No point arguing about choice if you define choice to be a unary decision.

 
 
 
Sparty On
4.2  Sparty On  replied to  Release The Kraken @4    2 weeks ago
Don't be alarmed not a single person showed for the scheduled event.

They call that "political social distancing" in the Biden campaign.

..... that's their story and they are sticking to it .....

 
 
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