Let's take a look at who is turning out early to vote this year
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
CHRIS CUOMO : 68 million Americans have already cast their ballots. That's over half of the total vote in 2016. Now, is that meaningful or meaningless data? Well, it's certainly meaningful, when you look at who is voting, now not by Party. I believe that partisan preference is becoming less a defining element of who we are, as voters. But if you look at it by age, now you see something interesting. How much so, and to what effect? Good questions! To answer them, the Wizard of Odds, Harry Enten is here.
Impress me young man with the other young people.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER & ANALYST: I'm not that young anymore. My goodness, in the flesh, I look much older.
CUOMO: I have shoes that are older than you.
ENTEN: There you go!
Look, here's the situation.
CUOMO: Yes.
ENTEN: Let's take a look at who is turning out early to vote this year, and compare it to where we were four years ago, at this point. And I think this really gives you an idea of what's cooking.
So essentially, look at the share of voters who are turning out early, who are under the age of 40 this year. Right now, it's 22 percent. Compare that to where we were seven days, until Election Day, back in 2016. It was just 14 percent.
Now, obviously, we still have a little bit time to go, and we'll see what actually occurs, on Election Day. But this does seem to line up with what we saw in 2018, where younger voters made up a larger piece of the pie in that mid-term than any mid-term in recent memory.
CUOMO: Who do they like?
ENTEN: Who do they like? They like Joe Biden. Joe Biden is leading with those voters under the age of 40 by about 20 points. He's up 56 percent to 37 percent.
And that is what we've seen consistently, over the last few years, as the millennials have come up, now they make up the vast share of those under the age of 40. Generation Z also makes up some share.
But there's no doubt that the more younger voters who turn out, the better it is for the former Vice President.
CUOMO: Now, in one of the very funny conversations we have that people don't get to see, more and more, I believe the best part of this show happens before it happens or during commercial.
I said to you, "Boy, I'm surprised that they would like Biden though, issue-for-issue, with all due respect to the former VP," and you said, "Well, it's because it's not about liking him. It's about not liking Trump." How much so and how do you know?
ENTEN: Yes. So, look at this. Take a look at the favorable and unfavorable ratings of both Biden and Trump among registered voters under the age of 40. What you see is Biden's favorable rating is slightly above his
unfavorable, right, 51 percent to 44 percent. But that's not anywhere near the spread that we saw in the horse race numbers. What's driving it though?
Look at this, 61 percent of registered voters, under the age of 40, have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. That is really what's driving, in my opinion, this youth enthusiasm. It's not so much a love for Biden. It's, honestly, for a lot of young voters, the truly deep dislike of the President of the United States.
CUOMO: How are they dispersed in terms of states that matter?
ENTEN: I mean, look, if you want to look at young voters, I would specifically look at, you know, Arizona would be a good example, of a place where there are a lot of up and coming, especially among Hispanics.
And especially in a state like Texas, if Biden is going to flip that state, I think young voters there are very important. If Joe Biden can get young voters, young Hispanic voters, to turn out in Texas, he has a real shot of turning that State blue.
CUOMO: You keep talking about Arizona. Why?
ENTEN: The reason I talk about Arizona is if you look at these - look at these states right here, right, if you're looking at Biden's road to 270, the easiest pathway is through the Upper Midwest, right? You win in Michigan, you win in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, you win in Wisconsin, you win in Pennsylvania that gets you to 279 exactly.
But say Biden was to fall in one of those states, right, let's say he doesn't win in Pennsylvania, if you add in Arizona, with its 11 electoral votes, and you take away the 20 from Pennsylvania, you still get Joe Biden to 270 electoral votes exactly.
And right now, Biden is ahead in the Arizona average by 4 points. So, he's leading there, and it's a very, very important state, if one of the states in the Upper Midwest falls through for him.
CUOMO: Boy, if we're counting the 2nd congressional district in Nebraska with its one electoral vote, this is going to be a very close count, on Tuesday, if it even ends on Tuesday.
Wiz, thank you very much. Appreciate it.
ENTEN: Thank you, Sir.
CUOMO: All right
Tags
Who is online
510 visitors
According to the CNN analyst, voting by people under 40 is up 50% over 2016, as judged by the early voting figures.
If that type of increase continues through the in person voting Trump is in big trouble.
Mailed in my ballot for Biden last week.
This 66 yr old has voted in every election since I was 18.
If you don't vote you have no right to complain.
"Look at this, 61 percent of registered voters, under the age of 40, have an unfavorable view of Donald Trump. That is really what's driving, in my opinion, this youth enthusiasm. It's not so much a love for Biden."
No kidding! Stop the presses - The Biden vote is nothing but an anti-Trump vote! Gee, I could have told Chis that!
Well if that's the case-- why didn't you?
(Curious minds want to know!!!)
I would vote against Trump every day of the week. He is not fit to be president.
Sometimes a vote against is better than a vote for.
Are they working and paying taxes?
Tell them to be careful what they wish for!
I would vote against Trump every day of the week. He is not fit to be president
Sometimes a vote against is better than a vote for.