The Associated Press called Arizona for Biden Wednesday morning and have not changed that call. They updated their reasoning earlier this morning.
The AP called the race in Arizona for Biden at 2:50 a.m. EST Wednesday after an analysis of ballots cast statewide concluded Trump could not catch up in the ballots left to be counted.
Arizona has a long political history of voting Republican. It’s the home state of Barry Goldwater, a five-term, conservative senator who was the Republican nominee for president in 1964. John McCain, the party’s 2008 presidential nominee, represented the state in Congress from 1983 until his 2018 death.
But changing demographics, including a fast-growing Latino population and a boom of new residents — some fleeing the skyrocketing cost of living in neighboring California — have made the state friendlier to Democrats.
Nate Silver disagrees with their reasoning - thinks it was still too early to call - though alternately he has been saying that Nevada, based on remaining votes, is pretty much a lock for Biden. His argument is Arizona actually has a pretty strong history of mail in voting, and as such is not as likely to be as strongly pro-Biden as in some other states. The slightly shrinking margin in that state seems to support this thesis.
" the opera ain't over till the fat lady sings ." It is said that this expression was first used by a sports writer, Dan Cook, writing for the San Antonio News
The Associated Press has called states in every election since 1848. They have been wrong once. They originally called Florida for Al Gore in 2000, but retracted the call shortly later that night.
There are enough uncounted ballots for Trump to win, though he'd have to win over 90% of the remaining ballots to overtake Biden and even Fox doesn't see that happening. CNN is just a little gun shy.
The difference in Arizona is 2.4% and there is 12% uncounted. Percentage Trump would need to close is 68% by my calculation. Don't see it as likely - but who and where Arizona mail-ins come from is more difficult to predict than in say PA.
...where Arizona mail-ins come from is more difficult to predict than in say PA.
It's PA where everyone is really watching. I think at this point it's a must win state for either side and it certainly looks better for Biden than Trump.
If Biden keeps Arizona - and Nevada is the lock that prognosticators like Silver are implying, than PA is just icing. Georgia definitely leaning Biden as well based on remaining votes and likely margins.
My favorite crazy scenario - the Arizona call was wrong, Biden loses everywhere but Georgia ends up with 269, and Democratic House picks the President while the Senate picks VP.
My favorite crazy scenario - the Arizona call was wrong, Biden loses everywhere but Georgia ends up with 269, and Democratic House picks the President while the Senate picks VP.
Except it's not by individual votes in the house to pick the president. It's by state delegation in the House and after the 2020 election, (not counting PA as the counting there is not done) the Republicans have a 26 to 23 lead in state delegations.
The end may be nigh. There are internet rumors that Biden will declare victory tonight. Georgia and Pennsylvania are both on the brink of being declared for Biden.
Biden's camp was told to "prepare to celebrate" by a Pennsylvania official, according to a news report.
Nevada will go Biden and he won't even need Pennsylvania or Georgia.
But 306 is so much better than a 270 squeaker.
Agreed!
The Trump lead in PA has just shrunk to 109,000
400 to 500,000 ballots to go.
That's all? whoa....
The Associated Press called Arizona for Biden Wednesday morning and have not changed that call. They updated their reasoning earlier this morning.
Nate Silver disagrees with their reasoning - thinks it was still too early to call - though alternately he has been saying that Nevada, based on remaining votes, is pretty much a lock for Biden. His argument is Arizona actually has a pretty strong history of mail in voting, and as such is not as likely to be as strongly pro-Biden as in some other states. The slightly shrinking margin in that state seems to support this thesis.
It isn't over till it's over. Yogi Berra.
" the opera ain't over till the fat lady sings ." It is said that this expression was first used by a sports writer, Dan Cook, writing for the San Antonio News
"There is no path left for Trump in Nevada"
John Ralston
Nevada politics guru.
about 5 minutes ago
But in Arizona, Joe Gloria just said he will be counting through Sunday, possibly Monday.
So the AP is way out on a limb of hundreds of thousands of votes that could favor Trump.
Biden & Trumps future is entirely up to ( or down to) PA & GA
I trust Associated Press. They are the world's most authoritative news source. Having said that, anything can happen.
AP has had every chance to put Arizona back into a "too close to call" category, but have not done so.
Sorry, Joe was the Clark County NV Clerk.
The Associated Press has called states in every election since 1848. They have been wrong once. They originally called Florida for Al Gore in 2000, but retracted the call shortly later that night.
Interesting how AP and Fox News already has Arizona for Biden, yet as I write this, CNN is still not calling AZ for Biden.
Funny seeing Trump supporters protesting Fox news over the AZ call.
There are enough uncounted ballots for Trump to win, though he'd have to win over 90% of the remaining ballots to overtake Biden and even Fox doesn't see that happening. CNN is just a little gun shy.
The difference in Arizona is 2.4% and there is 12% uncounted. Percentage Trump would need to close is 68% by my calculation. Don't see it as likely - but who and where Arizona mail-ins come from is more difficult to predict than in say PA.
It's PA where everyone is really watching. I think at this point it's a must win state for either side and it certainly looks better for Biden than Trump.
If Biden keeps Arizona - and Nevada is the lock that prognosticators like Silver are implying, than PA is just icing. Georgia definitely leaning Biden as well based on remaining votes and likely margins.
My favorite crazy scenario - the Arizona call was wrong, Biden loses everywhere but Georgia ends up with 269, and Democratic House picks the President while the Senate picks VP.
Except it's not by individual votes in the house to pick the president. It's by state delegation in the House and after the 2020 election, (not counting PA as the counting there is not done) the Republicans have a 26 to 23 lead in state delegations.
Mine would be the Senate ties 50-50.
The end may be nigh. There are internet rumors that Biden will declare victory tonight. Georgia and Pennsylvania are both on the brink of being declared for Biden.
Biden's camp was told to "prepare to celebrate" by a Pennsylvania official, according to a news report.