CDC Data Suggests True Coronavirus Death Toll Near 400,000
Category: News & Politics
Via: john-russell • 4 years ago • 8 commentsBy: Tommy Christopher (Mediaite)
S E E D E D C O N T E N T
By Tommy ChristopherDec 3rd, 2020, 7:50 am 
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images
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As the United States broke another grisly record with over 3,000 coronavirus deaths in a single day, data from the Centers for Disease Control suggests the true cumulative U.S. death toll is near 400,000 souls lost.
According to the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University, the official confirmed U.S. coronavirus death toll for Wednesday was 3,157. The official confirmed U.S. total death toll is now 273,847 as of Wednesday.
But according to an analysis of CDC data on "excess deaths related to COVID-19," the true death toll is at least 100,000 more. From The New York Times :
The data show how the coronavirus pandemic, which is peaking in many states, is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.
Deaths nationwide were 19 percent higher than normal from March 15 to Nov. 14. Altogether, the analysis shows that 345,000 more people than normal have died in the United States during that period, a number that may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.
During the period that NYT analyzed against the CDC data, the official confirmed death toll from the coronavirus was 246,206. Since then, the official confirmed death toll has increased by more than 27,000. Even using just the raw number of excess deaths in the CDC data would place the true current death toll at over 372,000, but it's certain that deaths continued to be undercounted.
And the current spike in record daily deaths is likely to increase, as the explosion in cases that began over a month ago begins to show up in the death count. Those case counts continue to soar, with 4 or 5 months to go before a vaccine will be widely available.
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This article is rather straight forward. There have been appx 350,000 more deaths in the US during the pandemic months than would occur in a "normal year" according to statistics. The implication being that 80 or 90 thousand deaths are unexplained and may be an unassigned addition to the 270,000 deaths assigned to covid.
I'm not sure I totally believe all the excess deaths are from covid, but some likely are, and others may be from illnesses caused by the stress of having to deal with this situation all year.
Where are the stats on "normal" years. You know, all deaths. Here is 2018.
"In 2018, a total of 2,839,205 resident deaths were registered in the United States—25,702 more deaths than in 2017. From 2017 to 2018, the age-adjusted death rate for the total population decreased 1.1%, and life expectancy at birth increased 0.1 year. Age-specific death rates between 2017 and 2018 decreased for age groups 15–24, 25–34, 45–54, 65–74, 75–84, and 85 and over."
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So I wonder where we stand against that number? Got any insight?
I think the article is somewhat speculative, and readers will draw their own conclusions.
The excess deaths have been taken into consideration in a number of different studies.
Is the correct number 400,000? I don't know but we do know that the current number of 270,000 and over 3,000 deaths yesterday is real and its going to get a lot worse.
There is a wealth of information to be downloaded and parsed. I would suggest the 350,000 is not unrealistic, but whether it is all from covid-19 is another matter. The excess is running about 27% above the covid-19 numbers, imo. The Eurozone shows similar tendencies. How much is due to reduction of services to focus on covid is debatable. The UK had published a report during the summer that the NHS focusing on Covid was detrimental to other health related issues and claimed many of the deaths outside the covid reporting were due to this issue. Whether services were available or patients were hesitant.. played into the report.
In my state, 60 and above... account for 92% of deaths (80+: 49.1%; 70~79: 26.76%; 60~69: 16.1%), with nursing homes accounting for 65%. Additionally 50~59 account for 5.61%. It is an old people disease. The death rate from covid for 80+ is 11% of those reported as infected. 4% for 70~79 and 1.5% for 60~69.
Are there any numbers of how many have died with the virus, but not of it
Anecdotally, my father in law died recently and we see Covid as being responsible - if only indirectly - even though he will not be reported as a Covid death.
He was elderly (89), and died of congestive heart failure. However, in June/July, he had some kind of respiratory ailment. We don't know what it was and he wasn't tested at the time. Like many, I imagine, he didn't seek help, and didn't allow anyone to come help him. There also wasn't a lot of eagerness to go pull him out and expose families to Covid, if he did have it.
In about a week, he recovered, but both before and after, his activity was so reduced because of lockdowns and fear of getting sick that it clearly impacted his health. Eventually, we got him to a hospital and later, into an assisted living facility, but he was never the same as he had been earlier in the year, and he ended up back in the hospital. When he was in the hospital, we weren't allowed to visit, much less stay with him. That, too, can impact patient outcomes.
Did Covid directly impact his elderly heart? Was it the increasingly sedentary lifestyle? Did fear of Covid cause him to not go out into the world for checkups and fresh medicine? There are so many ways the pandemic can negatively impact someone's health. It could be a long time before we appreciate all the lives impacted by this.
One should also consider that a major cause of death in normal years is auto accidents. With so many now either working from home or not commuting because they lost their job, a general increase in deaths becomes even more suspicious.