What Are Your Predictions For The Results Of The Georgia US Senate Runoff Election Today ?

  

Category:  News & Politics

By:  john-russell  •  2 weeks ago  •  24 comments

What Are Your Predictions For The Results Of The Georgia US Senate Runoff Election Today ?


Although I wish otherwise, I think the two Republicans are going to win the runoffs today. Too many southern Republicans are afraid of giving the Democrats control in the Senate because they have been brainwashed into thinking that would usher in "socialism". 

Who do you think will win ?

The two races are 

Sen. Kelly Loeffler (Rep.)  vs   Raphael Warnock (Dem.)

and 

Sen David Perdue (Rep.)  vs  John Ossoff (Dem.)

ga-senate-runoff-1-696x530.png


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JohnRussell
1  author  JohnRussell    2 weeks ago

latest polling

Source Date Sample Warnock Loeffler Other
Poll Averages* 50.2% 47.4% -
AtlasIntel 1/04/2021 857 LV ±3% 51% 47% 2%
BUSR/UNLV 1/04/2021 550 LV ±4% 48% 49% 3%
InsiderAdvantage 1/04/2021 500 LV ±4.4% 49% 49% 2%
AtlasIntel 1/03/2021 1,680 LV ±2% 51% 47% 2%
Gravis Marketing 1/02/2021 1,011 LV ±3.1% 49% 47% 4%
JMC Analytics 12/30/2020 500 LV ±4.4% 54% 45% 1%
Trafalgar Group 12/29/2020 1,022 LV ±3% 50% 49% 1%
InsiderAdvantage 12/23/2020 500 RV ±4.4% 49% 47% 4%
SurveyUSA 12/22/2020 600 LV ±5.1% 52% 45% 3%
RMG Research 12/21/2020 1,417 LV ±2.6% 49% 48% 3%

Source Date Sample Ossoff Perdue Other
Poll Averages* 50.2% 47.4% -
AtlasIntel 1/04/2021 857 LV ±3% 51% 47% 2%
BUSR/UNLV 1/04/2021 550 LV ±4% 48% 49% 3%
InsiderAdvantage 1/04/2021 500 LV ±4.4% 49% 49% 2%
AtlasIntel 1/03/2021 1,680 LV ±2% 51% 47% 2%
Gravis Marketing 1/02/2021 1,011 LV ±3.1% 50% 47% 3%
JMC Analytics 12/30/2020 500 LV ±4.4% 53% 45% 2%
Trafalgar Group 12/29/2020 1,022 LV ±3% 50% 48% 2%
InsiderAdvantage 12/23/2020 500 RV ±4.4% 48% 49% 3%
SurveyUSA 12/22/2020 600 LV ±5.1% 51% 46% 3%
RMG Research 12/21/2020 1,417 LV ±2.6% 49% 47% 4%

 
 
 
JohnRussell
1.1  author  JohnRussell  replied to  JohnRussell @1    2 weeks ago

I don't know how you get to a category of "other" in a runoff election, but 2 or 3 percent of voters seem to be doing it. 

 
 
 
Greg Jones
1.1.1  Greg Jones  replied to  JohnRussell @1.1    2 weeks ago

Dems win....American's get the government they deserve

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
1.1.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  Greg Jones @1.1.1    2 weeks ago

Greg, have you ever had a tire with a slow leak?  If you don't fix it what happens?

Is this election going to be determined in 24 hours?  Georgia hasn't even fixed that!

 
 
 
Vic Eldred
1.2  Vic Eldred  replied to  JohnRussell @1    2 weeks ago

John, most of us no longer have any faith in polling.  We have no idea how these candidates stand.

 
 
 
MrFrost
1.2.1  MrFrost  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.2    2 weeks ago
John, most of us no longer have any faith in polling.

Polling is valuable in every election except the presidential election, where polling is pointless since the popular vote doesn't elect presidents. 

Warnock and Ossoff have at least a 2 point lead. It's not a guaranteed win, but it is quite telling. 

 
 
 
Krishna
1.2.2  Krishna  replied to  Vic Eldred @1.2    2 weeks ago
, most of us no longer have any faith in polling.

No longer?

Does that mean you did previously?

 
 
 
JohnRussell
1.3  author  JohnRussell  replied to  JohnRussell @1    2 weeks ago
digby
@digby56
·
33m
Warnock and Ossoff are ahead at 7:25 pm which, by Trump logic, means that they have won.
 
 
 
JohnRussell
1.4  author  JohnRussell  replied to  JohnRussell @1    2 weeks ago

(EVIDENCE ) I post the below screenshots at 9:45PM ET so that the conspiracy theorists gathered in DC understand that total vote tabulation *does not always match* predicted outcome. The GOP is leading in both races, but the *outstanding votes* are expected to favor the Democrats.

ErBCNyiXMAUwVaq.jpg:medium

 
 
 
MrFrost
2  MrFrost    2 weeks ago

Perdue outsourced jobs to China, no way the republicans will vote for him, they hate China. /snark

 
 
 
bbl-1
2.1  bbl-1  replied to  MrFrost @2    2 weeks ago

Nah.  Republicans are still angered by the audacity of 'the tan suit'.

 
 
 
Split Personality
3  Split Personality    2 weeks ago

Warnock & Perdue, then Perdue will be charged with insider trading and eventually step down. jrSmiley_88_smiley_image.gif

 
 
 
Kavika
4  Kavika     2 weeks ago

This is classic:

How Kelly Loeffler’s WNBA Team Became Her Most Passionate Opponent

 
 
 
Trout Giggles
4.1  Trout Giggles  replied to  Kavika @4    2 weeks ago

I would be proud to call any of those young women my daughter

 
 
 
Baron Creek
5  Baron Creek    2 weeks ago

What will be the results?

I predict there will be a bunch of people mad, accusations of cheating, screams about election fraud, possible court challenges, etc. Just an average election these days.

If you meant which candidates would win... I dunno. I'll take the safe road and say a split Perdue/Warnock. If the repubs win both, then nothing really changes. If the dems win both, then Manchin will become the most popular Senator in DC.

The real question is whether "bubba" gets re-elected. I don't really care other than it was amusing to see bubba on a ballot. 

 
 
 
Thomas
5.1  Thomas  replied to  Baron Creek @5    2 weeks ago

I predict a lot of whining, crying, shitstorms coming from the Republocrat Democan lobby.

Nothing will get solved.

Peoples feelings will get bent and none of it will make a difference.

Why? 

Because Donald J Trump is going to seditiously try to subvert the will of the American people tomorrow, with the help of his equally seditious partners in the Senate and House, will manage to push the envelope of credulity past the breaking point and arrange a house vote in which he will be declared, by fiat and without reason or democratic value, the next president of the US. At which point, all hell will break loose with violence in the streets of Washington and beyond. And so will end our democratic experience.

Or not.

God, did I pick the wrong time to give up valium....

 
 
 
Thomas
5.1.1  Thomas  replied to  Thomas @5.1    2 weeks ago

Too close to reality for me. 

 
 
 
Dragon
6  Dragon    2 weeks ago

Unfortunately I think Republicans will win, leaving Mitch in charge, and that is the worse possible outcome, for Democrats and Republicans.

 
 
 
JohnRussell
7  author  JohnRussell    2 weeks ago

The early word I am reading is that turnout in Democratic areas is not high enough to get Warnock and Ossoff elected. 

Hope its wrong. 

 
 
 
bbl-1
7.1  bbl-1  replied to  JohnRussell @7    2 weeks ago

You may be correct.  Turnout in GOP strongholds appear to be strong.

 
 
 
Krishna
8  Krishna    2 weeks ago

I've been following this election closely for some time now.

After carefully examining all the evidence, IMO..its too close to call!

 
 
 
Krishna
8.1  Krishna  replied to  Krishna @8    2 weeks ago

Second most likely possibility (IMO) might be a split: both races close but Perdue and Warnock being winners. 

(And therefore Republicans retaining control of the Senate, but by a narrow margin).

 
 
 
Krishna
8.1.1  Krishna  replied to  Krishna @8.1    2 weeks ago

Of course if even one of the Republicans loses (even by a YUGE margin) Trump will then rant and rave about how the election was fixed, 

If both Republicans win, then he'll say everything was on the up and up-- Georgia did a tremendous job-- the fairest election evah!

(Regardless of the actual facts...)

 
 
 
bbl-1
9  bbl-1    2 weeks ago

Will not make a prediction.  Georgia is a red state at this period in time although it is indeed trending purple.  

This all depends on turnout and how successful some voting precincts are in declaring eligible votes ineligible. 

 
 
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